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Europe Builds Momentum as Trans-Pacific Slowdown Deepens

Jul 9, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Global container shipping is evolving rapidly, with Asia–Europe trade lanes showing fresh strength just as the transpacific market enters a significant slowdown. This divergence is creating new challenges and opportunities for shippers.

On the Asia–Europe route, demand has been steadily rising, with spot freight rates climbing significantly since the end of May. After a sluggish start to the year, the peak season seems to have arrived, driven by stronger consumer sentiment in Europe, improved macroeconomic indicators, and renewed retailer confidence in stock building.

Forecasts for European imports have been upgraded. Instead of the previously expected 3.5% annual growth, volumes are now set to increase by 6% through 2025. This is being supported by lower inflation, falling unemployment, rising disposable income, and stronger euro/sterling, which is making imports from Asia more affordable.

A new UK trade agreement is also giving exporters a boost by reducing U.S. tariffs on inbound goods to 10%. Discussions with the EU are ongoing, and similar tariff terms could apply more broadly to European supply chains, further stimulating demand.

In contrast, container traffic from Asia to North America is heading in the opposite direction. The sharp increase in demand earlier this year, driven by front-loading stock ahead of tariff deadlines, has left warehouses full and order volumes slowing. With inventory levels high and economic uncertainty persisting, import activity is falling, and rates have dropped since early June from Asia.

Adding to this pressure is the looming reintroduction of US tariffs. Temporary suspensions on general and China-specific tariffs are set to expire in July and August respectively. While extensions are possible, the expected imposition of new duties, potentially rising to 55% for some Chinese goods, may suppress demand further and shift sourcing decisions in the second half of the year.

Although a short-lived spike in cargo arrivals at US West Coast ports may materialise in July, driven by attempts to beat the tariff deadlines, this is expected to be a temporary reprieve in a broader downtrend.

Meanwhile, carriers on the Asia–Europe route are preparing to balance higher demand with tighter capacity. Shipping lines plan to withdraw approximately 90,000 TEU of scheduled space in August compared to July, using blank sailings and capacity cuts to maintain pricing discipline. If volumes remain strong, this could lead to a second wave of rate increases before the end of summer.

Beyond commercial dynamics, security remains a key concern in the Red Sea. A bulk carrier was attacked this week using drone boats, rocket-propelled grenades, and small arms, in the first such assault since December. Analysts warn that the threat level to commercial shipping has risen significantly, with continued disruption to Suez-linked services.

As trade routes shift, tariffs tighten, and risks increase, the ability to adapt quickly and make informed shipping decisions is more critical than ever.

Metro’s sea freight team provides expert guidance to help you navigate volatile conditions, mitigate disruption, and make your supply chain more resilient. Whether you’re importing from Asia or exporting to global markets, we’ll keep your cargo moving and your costs under control.  EMAIL our managing director Andrew Smith.

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Pressure Builds on India–Europe Sea Freight

Jun 24, 2025 | , ,

Indian exports are facing growing challenges on the India–Europe sea freight corridor as space tightens, equipment shortages emerge, and rates rise sharply, as carriers push through significant price hikes and service adjustments.

The situation has been building since early May, when the end of seasonal produce volumes briefly softened the market. Since then, rates have rebounded week-on-week, climbing steadily on the back of capacity cuts, slower vessel arrivals, and strategic redeployments by carriers. While export volumes remain steady, the squeeze on space and container availability is driving up freight costs and impacting booking reliability.

From mid-June and into July, carriers have introduced a series of general rate increases (GRIs), with some operators implementing double-digit percentage rises on westbound shipments from Indian ports to North Europe and the Mediterranean. Several major lines have also introduced new surcharges to secure space, including emergency space surcharges and revised all-in tariffs.

These rate increases coincide with signs of wider strain on the trade. Some carriers are deploying smaller vessels on Indian routes to prioritise higher-yield trans-Pacific traffic, while others have voided scheduled calls due to operational issues. The result is growing uncertainty at key Indian ports, including Nhava Sheva, Mundra, Ennore, and Chennai, where last-minute gate cut-off changes and blank sailings are complicating planning for exporters and freight forwarders.

At the same time, equipment availability is starting to tighten. While the situation is not yet critical, access to empty containers, especially in inland and southern locations, varies widely between carriers and equipment types. The slowdown in imports from Asia, driven by congestion at transhipment hubs, is beginning to disrupt the usual balance of container flows, raising concerns about inventory levels in the weeks ahead.

The full impact of these challenges is now being felt across the market. Rates from West India to key European destinations, including Rotterdam, Antwerp, and London Gateway have increased by more than 50% in some cases, with further hikes expected. Carriers appear confident in their ability to hold these levels through the end of July, with strong demand and constrained supply underpinning their position.

As these dynamics play out, shippers should brace for continued volatility. Advance planning, flexible routing, and close collaboration with stakeholders will be essential in a trade lane that shows no signs of stabilising in the near term.

Metro combines deep ocean freight expertise with global reach and local insight, now strengthened by our new India office, to keep your cargo moving through market volatility.

EMAIL managing director, Andrew Smith, to discover how our sea freight solutions and on-the-ground presence in India can support your supply chain.

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Tariff Pause Triggers Surge in Ocean Freight Rates – But Legal Roadblocks Lie Ahead

Jun 11, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Container shipping lines are driving spot rates sharply higher, with the 2025 transpacific peak season likely to begin earlier than usual, fuelled by a surge in US imports from Asia.

Spot rates on key routes are rising faster than during the pandemic-era boom. Carriers implemented general rate increases (GRIs) on 1 June and plan further hikes for mid-June and 1 July, seizing the moment while demand is high.

According to the WCI, Shanghai–Los Angeles rates surged 57% week-on-week, while Shanghai–New York climbed 39%. Since mid-April, West Coast rates are up 173%, and East Coast rates have more than doubled. For comparison, rates rose just 20% over the same period in 2021. Asia–Europe lanes are also rallying, with the Shanghai–Rotterdam index up 32% and Shanghai–Genoa rising 38%, the highest weekly increases in many months.

But this momentum may be short-lived, as a wave of new capacity is entering the market. On Asia–West Coast routes, supply will grow by 13% in June and 16% in July. This additional capacity is expected to blunt the impact of further rate hikes, and limit the length of the current rally.

At the same time, the legal outlook for Trump ‘reciprocal’ tariffs remains highly uncertain. On 29 May, a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated the tariffs, just one day after the US Court of International Trade ruled that the former president had exceeded his authority and ordered an immediate block. The Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington paused that decision to consider the government’s appeal, with final briefs due by 9 June.

However, legal experts suggest that the original court ruling is on strong footing. Under the current framework, principally the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), presidential authority to impose broad-based tariffs is limited. The Court of International Trade ruled that Trump’s use of IEEPA to impose tariffs on non-emergency, peacetime imports likely overstepped constitutional bounds.

If the appeal fails, Trump’s tariffs will face two remaining paths: either a legislative push to expand presidential tariff authority through Congress, or a ruling from the Supreme Court. The latter remains a real possibility if the administration persists and seeks to test the constitutional limits of executive trade powers.

In the meantime, the legal limbo is prompting importers to accelerate orders while the tariffs remain suspended, adding further pressure to ocean freight markets. But with front-loading already well advanced, this year’s peak season is expected to be earlier and shorter than the usual August–October window. While carriers are determined to ride the wave of high rates, fundamentals suggest the next one or two GRIs may be the last before rates begin to level off.

With legal uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and ocean freight markets under intense pressure, early planning and expert guidance are more critical than ever.

Metro’s experienced sea freight and customs brokerage teams are here to support your transpacific and Asia–Europe supply chains, with in-market expertise and local operations in the US.

Whether you’re juggling critical shipments, reviewing tariff exposure, or seeking end-to-end compliance support, Metro has the insight and capability to keep your cargo moving.

EMAIL our managing director, Andrew Smith, today to stay ahead of disruption and secure your space at the best possible rates.

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Global Schedule Reliability Rises Again

Jun 2, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Container shipping schedule reliability improved for the second consecutive month in April 2025, reaching its highest level since November 2023. According to the latest industry data, 59% of vessel arrivals were on time in April, up from 58% in March and 6% higher than April 2024.

While still far from pre-pandemic levels, the trend reflects a clear focus among carriers on restoring service integrity.

The standout performer remains the Gemini Cooperation, formed by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, which continued to dominate on-time performance metrics across key global trades. In April, Maersk posted the highest reliability among the top 13 carriers at 73%, followed closely by Hapag-Lloyd at 72%. MSC placed third with 61%.

Gemini achieved an average of 91% on-time reliability across all port calls and 87% when measured by final destination arrivals, well above its 90% performance target on several major lanes, including Asia–US West Coast and US East Coast–Europe services. On the Asia–North America West Coast route, Gemini achieved a perfect 100% score. Meanwhile, MSC led on the Asia–North America East Coast trade, recording 92%.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Premier Alliance and Ocean Alliance continued to struggle. Premier averaged 53% reliability, while Ocean Alliance fell to 51%. Among individual members, Evergreen recorded the lowest schedule performance at 47%.

Market impact of improving reliability
Improving schedule reliability is more than just operational, it’s strategic. Consistent service performance enables shippers to reduce safety stocks and better manage inventory, improving overall supply chain efficiency. Simply, reliability allows companies to remove weeks of buffer stock from their planning.

In contrast, low-reliability carriers may find themselves at a competitive disadvantage, particularly if freight buyers begin to prioritise predictability over price alone in an increasingly complex market environment.

Rates hold firm as carriers manage capacity
As we report in this week’s newsletter average global spot freight rates have also shown moderate upward movement. The Drewry World Container Index reported a 2% rise in global average rates in mid-May, bringing the benchmark to a level that is 60% above the pre-pandemic average, but still far below the 2021–22 peak.

Shanghai–Genoa and Shanghai–New York spot rates both increased by 4% week-on-week, while Shanghai–Los Angeles edged up 2%. Backhaul rates out of Europe remained stable, indicating strong front-haul demand and tight outbound capacity from Asia.

The rate resilience is partly attributed to carriers’ continued capacity discipline and their renewed focus on reliability. As cargo volumes from Asia increase, partly driven by front-loading ahead of potential tariff changes, shippers are placing greater value on stable schedules and transit times.

With the full rollout of the new alliances not expected until July, further improvements in reliability may still lie ahead. For now, Gemini’s strong performance is setting a new service benchmark, while the broader market appears to be shifting in favour of predictability and performance over sheer price competition.

With carrier reliability still fluctuating across trade lanes, dependable sea freight solutions requires more than just a booking, it requires real-time insight and agility. Metro’s MVT platform continuously tracks shipping line KPIs, comparing actual performance across alliances and enabling us to dynamically adjust your supply chain around real arrival data, not published schedules.

Combined with our expert sea freight team and strategic carrier partnerships, this data-driven approach helps reduce delays, optimise inventory planning, and protect your service levels.

Partner with Metro for smarter, more reliable ocean freight, powered by MVT and built around your business. EMAIL Andrew Smith, managing director, today.

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