EU UK negotiations 2

UK–EU reset could ease border friction for importers and exporters

May 13, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

On 13 May 2026, the King's Speech set out the government's plans for the next Parliamentary session, including efforts to reset post-Brexit relations, forge closer economic ties with the EU and reduce unnecessary barriers to trade.

The reset is not a return to the single market or customs union. Instead, it is being presented as a targeted attempt to stabilise the trading relationship through closer alignment in specific areas where the government believes reduced friction could support growth, cut costs and improve supply chain efficiency. 

SPS alignment could simplify GB–EU border processes

The government intends to pass legislation by the end of 2026 to enable an SPS agreement with the EU to take effect by mid-2027. The agreement would cover animal and plant health, food safety and related agri-food rules, with the UK aligning to relevant EU legislation in order to ease border procedures.

SPS controls have been among the most disruptive post-Brexit trade barriers, creating additional documentation, inspection, certification and timing challenges at the GB–EU border.

A veterinary-style agreement could reduce the need for some routine checks and help make border movements more predictable. For exporters, this may improve access into EU markets. For importers, it could reduce delays, compliance costs and uncertainty when bringing goods into Great Britain.

Emissions trading alignment could reshape supply chain costs

Alongside the SPS agreement, the government is also negotiating closer alignment between the UK and EU emissions trading schemes (ETS), designed to reduce regulatory divergence and support longer-term industrial and energy cooperation. 

For businesses involved in manufacturing, energy-intensive production, transport and international trade, the implications could extend well beyond environmental policy.

A linked or more closely aligned ETS framework could help reduce friction for exporters trading into Europe, particularly as the EU continues expanding carbon-related trade measures and compliance requirements. It may also provide greater long-term certainty for businesses operating across both UK and EU markets.

Dynamic alignment brings certainty but also new compliance considerations

The proposed reset relies on dynamic alignment in selected areas, meaning UK rules would keep pace with relevant EU law as it evolves. This is central to the government’s ambition to reduce border friction, because smoother trade processes depend on both sides recognising equivalent standards.

For logistics and supply chain teams, this could provide greater medium-term certainty over the regulatory framework affecting GB–EU trade. However, it also means businesses will need to monitor changes in EU rules that may flow into UK requirements over time.

The wider political debate remains active. Critics argue that dynamic alignment could reduce UK regulatory flexibility, while others want the government to go further and pursue a customs union. 

What this means for UK traders

The direction of travel may point toward a less burdensome GB–EU trading environment, but the more realistic reading is:

  • Customs declarations are not going away simply because an SPS deal is agreed.
  • Rules of origin issues are not being removed by the reset as described in this briefing.
  • What may improve is the regulatory layer sitting on top of customs processes for certain categories of goods, especially agri-food.

That distinction matters, because a truck can still need customs processing even if SPS checks become lighter or less frequent.

So the likely benefit is not “no border”, but a border with fewer SPS-related interruptions, fewer compliance mismatches and a lower chance that a shipment is delayed because UK and EU technical rules have drifted apart.

Importers and exporters should now review where SPS controls, border checks, certification or documentary requirements are creating cost, delay or uncertainty in their supply chains. They should also assess whether current customs and compliance processes are flexible enough to adapt as the UK–EU framework develops.

As the UK–EU reset develops, Metro is helping customers assess how changing customs procedures, SPS requirements and evolving regulatory alignment could affect their supply chains, transit times and compliance obligations. 

Through integrated freight forwarding, customs support and cross-border logistics expertise, Metro helps businesses prepare for changing GB–EU trade conditions and maintain efficient cargo flow across European supply chains.

EMAIL Managing Director, Andrew Smith, today to learn more.

HKG port

Peak season uncertainty grows as shippers front-load inventory and freight demand diverges

May 13, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Container shipping markets appear to be entering an earlier and increasingly fragmented peak season, as geopolitical disruption, rising fuel costs and tighter carrier capacity management reshape freight demand across major trade lanes.

Bookings on several east-west corridors strengthened earlier than normal during May, with carriers maintaining upward pressure on rates as many importers accelerate shipments ahead of the traditional third-quarter peak season period.

Spot rates on Asia–US west coast services have continued to outperform other major trades, rising around 4% week on week and remaining significantly above levels seen before the escalation of Middle East disruption. Asia–Europe pricing has also strengthened modestly, with rates to North Europe and the Mediterranean increasing as carriers attempt to restore margins through capacity reductions and surcharge increases.

However, broader market conditions remain difficult to interpret. What appears to be an early peak season may ultimately reflect precautionary inventory positioning and front-loading activity rather than sustained end-user demand growth.

Front-loading and disruption are reshaping traditional shipping patterns

A growing number of importers are moving cargo earlier amid concerns that operational disruption, congestion and capacity shortages could intensify later in the year.

The continuing closure and instability surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is adding further pressure to global freight markets, with around 1.5% of global shipping capacity estimated to be affected directly by disruption linked to the region.

At the same time, higher oil prices are increasing carrier operating costs across both ocean and airfreight markets, while blank sailings are continuing to tighten effective capacity on key trades.

Capacity reductions on Asia–Europe services have become increasingly aggressive in recent weeks, with shipping lines reducing available space to North Europe and the Mediterranean while also introducing additional blank sailings beyond traditional holiday periods.

The result is a more volatile market where shipment rollovers, reduced allocations and short-notice schedule changes are becoming increasingly common, even where bookings are technically available.

On transpacific trades, carriers have also maintained relatively firm control over available capacity following post-Lunar New Year service adjustments, helping sustain pricing despite ongoing uncertainty around underlying consumer demand.

Additional surcharges introduced on Asia–US services suggest carriers expect demand to remain comparatively elevated through the summer period.

Many importers remain cautious about underlying demand, particularly in Europe where economic conditions remain comparatively weak and pressure on household spending continues to affect purchasing behaviour.

This creates the possibility that some businesses could be holding elevated inventory levels later in the year, potentially resulting in a delayed, compressed or weaker traditional peak season across certain sectors.

Metro survey highlights cautious but stable demand expectations

Early findings from Metro’s ongoing customer survey reflect this more balanced outlook.

Around 38% of respondents currently expect freight volumes to remain broadly stable over the next 12 months, while a similar percentage expect volumes to increase slightly. Less than 1/8 anticipate a significant decrease, while none expect a significant increase in activity.

The findings suggest that many businesses are not currently anticipating a dramatic peak season surge, but instead expect relatively stable trading conditions alongside continued disruption and cost pressure.

At the same time, respondents indicate that ongoing instability across global supply chains is continuing to influence inventory planning, shipping schedules and freight costs.

The divergence between Asia–US west coast and Asia–Europe markets highlights how uneven global freight conditions have become. Rather than moving in a single direction, pricing and demand are increasingly being shaped by regional economic performance, inventory strategies and trade lane-specific operational risks.

Sea–air solutions gaining attention as airfreight costs surge

The disruption is also influencing modal shift decisions.

With the average airfreight rate out of Asia-Pacific over 40% higher than last year shippers are increasingly exploring sea–air solutions to balance cost, speed and reliability.

Airfreight rates have risen sharply as fuel surcharges, restricted airspace and tighter capacity continue to affect global networks. At the same time, ongoing Red Sea diversions are keeping some ocean transit times above 50 days on Asia–Europe services.

For many retail, fashion, e-commerce and consumer goods shippers, sea–air services are becoming an increasingly valuable tactical solution where traditional airfreight costs are difficult to absorb but ocean transit times remain commercially challenging.

For shippers, the key challenge may now be timing. If front-loading activity continues through the early summer period, demand on some corridors could remain firmer for longer than normally expected. However, weaker consumer demand and elevated inventory levels could also limit the scale of any traditional late summer or autumn rebound.

Metro’s survey remains open, and businesses are encouraged to share their expectations and experiences, together with insights into current market conditions, operational pressures and changing supply chain requirements. The survey also provides an opportunity for customers to share feedback on Metro’s performance and highlight where additional support or solutions could help strengthen supply chain operations. 

GO TO THE 2 MINUTE SURVEY

Through proactive capacity planning, multimodal air, sea and sea-air routing options and contingency-focused supply chain support, Metro helps customers respond more effectively to disruption, changing demand patterns and ongoing peak season uncertainty. EMAIL Managing Director, Andrew Smith, to learn more.

refinery

Fuel shocks across ocean, air and road freight

Apr 29, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, crude oil can still exist within the region, but refined products, which includes marine fuel, jet fuel and diesel, can no longer move freely to key consumption markets, which has triggered a sharp divergence in pricing and availability across all modes. 

For shippers, this creates a higher cost floor, as transport fuels are no longer moving in line with crude. Marine bunker, jet fuel and diesel each have their own supply chains and crack spreads (the margin between crude and refined products), and are now behaving independently of Brent. This is driving bunker-led cost pressure in ocean, jet fuel-driven inflation in air, and diesel-driven cost escalation in road. 

Ocean freight: bunker costs reset the pricing floor

In ocean freight, bunker fuel has become the dominant cost driver. Asian fuel hubs, particularly Singapore, are experiencing significant pressure as rerouted vessels increase demand while supply remains constrained.

This has created a disconnect between traditional pricing mechanisms and real-time costs. 

Emergency bunker surcharges are being applied across major trade lanes, while standard adjustment factors lag behind market conditions and may only catch up with current fuel inflation later in the year.

The result is a structurally higher cost base, with ocean rates now reflecting fuel volatility rather than underlying demand alone. 

Air freight: jet fuel shortage tightens capacity

Air freight is facing the most acute fuel-driven pressure. Gulf refineries, which typically supply jet fuel to Europe and Asia, are unable to export at normal levels, creating a shortage of refined product.

This has driven a sharp increase in jet fuel prices, with crack spreads widening dramatically from around $16 per barrel pre-crisis to approximately $100 in some regions. 

This regional price divergence means that Asia and Middle East jet fuel benchmarks sit substantially above North American levels, meaning that every kilo of freight uplifted is starting from a materially higher fuel cost base. 

As a result, airlines are adjusting networks, reducing marginal capacity and prioritising fuel efficiency, tightening available uplift and sustaining elevated airfreight rates.

Road freight: diesel inflation feeds through to transport costs

Road freight is also seeing significant cost pressure, with diesel prices rising independently of crude due to refinery constraints and regional supply dynamics.

Fuel accounts for roughly 30% of total truck operating costs, meaning sustained diesel inflation is already feeding through into pricing. 

At the same time, increased reliance on overland routes across the Middle East is adding further demand pressure, compounding both cost and capacity challenges.

What this means for shippers

  • Expect fuel-driven cost volatility across all modes
  • Plan for longer and less predictable transit times
  • Build flexibility into routing and inventory strategies
  • Monitor surcharge mechanisms

Fuel disruption, routing constraints and capacity pressure are now closely linked. Managing one without the others is no longer effective.

Metro works with customers to model alternative routes, balance mode selection and manage cost exposure in real time. If you are seeing rising costs, delays or uncertainty in your supply chain, EMAIL managing director, Andrew Smith, to secure the most effective solution for your cargo.

Jebel Ali

Middle East disruption continues to reshape global supply chains

Mar 18, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Middle East linked disruption extends well beyond the region, with growing implications for global supply chains. 

As capacity tightens, routes are reconfigured and costs come under pressure, supply chains are entering a more complex and less predictable phase.

Air freight capacity tightens

Air freight markets are among the most immediately affected. Reduced capacity through key Gulf hubs — which typically handle a significant share of global cargo flows and particularly Asia — has forced airlines to reroute services and limit network coverage.

Market data indicates that capacity reductions in parts of the Middle East and South Asia have been significantly steeper than the decline in volumes, creating a sharp imbalance between supply and demand. As a result, rates on some key east–west corridors have risen by more than 50% week on week, with spot pricing increasing at an even faster pace.

Cargo is increasingly being redirected via alternative gateways such as China and Hong Kong, placing additional pressure on corridors that were previously less affected. This is tightening capacity across Asia–Europe routes and contributing to delays, space shortages and short-notice schedule changes.

At the same time, rising fuel costs and the introduction of war risk-related surcharges are adding further upward pressure, while rate validity is shortening as carriers respond to rapidly changing conditions.

Ocean disruption drives congestion, diversion and equipment imbalances

Ocean freight is facing a different but equally significant set of challenges. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a corridor that typically handles a substantial share of global energy flows — has led to a dramatic reduction in vessel transits, with movements down by around 95% compared to normal levels.

Shipping lines have suspended services into the Arabian Gulf and are diverting vessels to alternative ports, where cargo is being discharged and held for onward movement. This is creating a knock-on effect across surrounding regions.

Ports outside the Gulf are now absorbing unexpected volumes. Congestion levels at key contingency hubs have reached critical levels, with some locations operating at or near full capacity and vessel waiting times extending well beyond normal ranges.

At the same time, an estimated 200,000+ TEU of capacity remains effectively trapped within the Gulf, contributing to equipment shortages in Asia as empty containers are unable to return to origin markets. This imbalance is expected to place further pressure on export flows in the coming weeks.

Rising bunker costs are also beginning to influence vessel operations, with some operators reducing sailing speeds to manage fuel consumption, adding further variability to transit times.

Costs rise as surcharges and fuel pressures build

Across both air and ocean freight, cost pressure is becoming more pronounced. Emergency surcharges linked to fuel volatility, war risk and network disruption are being introduced or expanded across multiple trade lanes.

Air freight rates have already increased sharply on key routes, while ocean carriers are implementing additional charges to reflect higher operating costs and longer routing distances. In parallel, regulatory scrutiny is increasing, particularly around how surcharges are applied and communicated.

For shippers, this is creating a more complex cost environment, where pricing can change quickly and visibility is reduced.

The past few weeks have highlighted how quickly supply chain assumptions can change and how important it is to have flexible, well-informed contingency options in place.

Metro is supporting customers by identifying alternative routings, securing capacity across air and ocean networks, and maintaining close operational control as conditions evolve.

To discuss how this situation could impact your supply chain, or to review practical routing and cost options, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director at Metro, for a direct and informed response.

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