container ship and naval escort

Supply chain disruption continues despite US/Iran ceasefire

Apr 15, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Global supply chains are operating in a more stable position than at the peak of the Iran war, but conditions remain far from normal. 

President Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire, tied to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, has reduced immediate geopolitical tension. However, logistics networks are still dealing with the after-effects of six weeks of disruption across one of the world’s most critical trade corridors.

Shipping activity through the Strait has resumed in limited form, but not at levels that would support a full return to pre-conflict operations. Carriers, insurers and cargo owners continue to treat the region as high risk, and that caution is shaping how goods are moved globally.

A clear indicator is the sustained level of Gulf container diversions to alternative gateways due to risk or congestion. Weekly diversions have risen from under 2,000 to consistently above 9,000 since early March. The UAE still receives 42% of diverted cargo, while Saudi Arabia’s share has climbed from 4% to 24% in five weeks. The 6 April attack on Khawr Fakkan has also removed a key alternative hub, adding further pressure to the network.

Congestion and cost pressures extend beyond the Gulf

The impact of these diversions is now being felt well beyond the Middle East. As cargo is redirected through alternative routes, pressure is building at ports not designed to handle sustained increases in transhipment volumes.

Navi Mumbai transhipment volumes have surged more than 1,300%, while import dwell times peaked at 23 days and remain elevated at around 20 days. Transhipment dwell has also increased, reaching 11 days and continuing to rise.

These developments underline a broader point: while flows have not stopped, the network has become less efficient. Transit times are longer, routing is less direct, and the risk of delay has increased at multiple points along the supply chain.

Energy disruption remains a central factor. The Strait of Hormuz has been functionally constrained for several weeks, removing an estimated 7–10% of global oil supply once partial workarounds are considered. This is feeding directly into transport costs across ocean, air and inland networks, while also increasing volatility in fuel pricing.

Global economies face different but connected pressures

The IMF have issued their updated global economic outlooks, with global GDP expected to slow to 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, while UK growth for 2026 has slowed from 1.3% to 0.8%, reflecting reliance on imported energy and the wider inflationary effects of sustained disruption. 

As energy-driven inflation persists and interest rate cuts are delayed, businesses are seeing pressure on margins, reduced order volumes and tighter working capital, while influences procurement and inventory strategies.

In the United States, supply chains are tightening rather than slowing. The Logistics Manager’s Index rose to 65.7 in March, its highest level since May 2022, with transportation, warehousing and inventory costs all increasing. Diesel prices have risen by almost 50% since late February, pushing trucking fuel surcharges to their highest levels since 2022.

A key difference compared to previous disruptions is the lack of buffer in the system. Inventories are leaner and fleet capacity has already been reduced, leaving less room to absorb further shocks. This increases the risk of stock-outs or service disruption if conditions deteriorate.

Business response: cautious planning and greater resilience

Across sectors, businesses are taking a measured but cautious approach. The ceasefire has improved sentiment, but expectations remain grounded. One retail CEO described it as a positive step that should gradually improve logistics planning and route reliability, while warning that supply chains would take time to rebalance. Another business leader noted that while freight costs had already increased, the business had anticipated this and planned accordingly, although any sustained rise in oil prices would create further pressure.

There are also early signs of upstream impact. In manufacturing supply chains reliant on imported energy, lead times have extended by up to six weeks in some cases. Textile production is reported to be down by around 15–20%, indicating that disruption is beginning to affect output at source. These effects typically take time to filter through to finished goods, but they highlight the potential for delayed disruption later in the supply chain.

In response, businesses are shifting from efficiency towards resilience, with greater emphasis on flexibility in routing, supplier selection and inventory management.

Short-term outlook: stabilisation without normalisation

In the near term, the most likely scenario is continued stabilisation without a full return to normal conditions. Vessel backlogs have eased and airspace restrictions eased, with some capacity redeployed, but diversion levels remain high and alternative hubs are under pressure. The loss of key secondary ports and ongoing uncertainty around the Strait mean carriers are unlikely to revert quickly to previous routing patterns.

For supply chains, this translates into a more complex operating environment. Costs remain elevated, transit times are less predictable, and planning cycles need to account for ongoing disruption rather than a rapid recovery.

In an environment where stability cannot be assumed, the ability to adapt quickly is critical and the right logistics partner can make the difference between maintaining flow and losing control.

With critical market insights, flexible routing options and proactive supply chain management, Metro helps customers overcome the most challenging conditions. 

EMAIL our Managing Director Andy Smith.

Qatar unloading

Air freight enters a new supply‑constrained phase

Apr 15, 2026 | , , ,

Global air freight markets have shifted abruptly from gradual recovery to a far more volatile, supply‑constrained environment, with the Middle East crisis now the dominant driver of pricing, routing and capacity decisions.

Rates have risen quickly in recent weeks, with fuel costs, network disruption and capacity reallocation creating a more complex operating environment. Despite the recent US–Iran ceasefire, conditions remain very far from normal, and will take far longer to unwind than the political headlines might imply.

Recent data points to a clear inflection. Over a four-week period to early April, global air freight rates increased by more than 25%, returning towards peak season levels. On some key corridors, the increases have been significantly steeper. India–Europe rates, for example, have more than doubled, while Hong Kong–Europe lanes have seen sustained upward pressure. These shifts reflect tightening supply rather than a surge in demand.

At the same time, global airfreight tonnage declined by around 4% in March, underlining the disconnect between demand and pricing. The market is no longer demand-led. Instead, it is being shaped by constrained effective capacity and rising operating costs.

Capacity disruption, fuel costs and network reconfiguration

Airspace restrictions, security concerns and operational risk have reduced flexibility, forcing airlines to reroute flights and extend transit times. While a ceasefire has eased immediate tensions, it has not resolved the structural challenges now embedded in the market.

At the peak of disruption, an estimated 15–20% of global air cargo capacity was effectively offline. Although some capacity has since returned, longer routings and operational inefficiencies mean that usable capacity remains significantly below nominal levels.

This is reflected in network behaviour. Capacity has not disappeared entirely, but it has been redistributed. Freighter capacity increased by approximately 9% month-on-month in March, as operators responded to gaps left by reduced belly-hold availability through Middle Eastern hubs. However, this growth has been uneven.

Routes directly affected by the crisis have seen double-digit capacity declines, while others have expanded rapidly. Asia–Europe has emerged as a key beneficiary, with airlines shifting towards more direct routings and alternative hubs. By contrast, Asia–North America lanes have softened, reflecting weaker demand and ongoing policy uncertainty.

Fuel is now a central factor in this shift. Jet fuel prices have risen sharply, in some regions by as much as 160% year-on-year, driven by supply constraints and extended replenishment cycles. In practical terms, this is increasing operating costs across all long-haul routes, particularly those requiring rerouting around restricted airspace.

These cost pressures are feeding directly into pricing, with carriers adjusting pricing to reflect higher fuel exposure and reduced network efficiency.

The combined impact of capacity constraints and fuel inflation is reshaping the structure of the air freight market. Growth expectations have already been revised downwards, with several percentage points of anticipated expansion lost in a matter of weeks.

More significantly, the market is no longer moving in a synchronised way. Instead, it is fragmenting into a series of regional and corridor-specific dynamics. Some lanes are experiencing acute capacity shortages and sharp rate increases, while others remain relatively stable or are softening.

Even with signs of stabilisation, a return to pre-disruption conditions is not expected in the near term. Rebuilding network efficiency, rebalancing fuel supply chains and restoring operational confidence will take time. Extended transit times, reduced routing flexibility and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty will continue to shape the market.

Metro delivers resilient air freight solutions built around your priorities. Combining strong airline relationships, global gateway options and flexible routing to secure space, maintain transit reliability and keep your cargo moving, even as market conditions shift. EMAIL our Managing Director Andy Smith to learn more.

Jet fuel

Jet fuel crisis escalates

Apr 15, 2026 | , , , , , , , ,

The global air freight market is entering a more critical phase, as a deepening jet fuel crisis begins to threaten operational stability through the second quarter and beyond. What initially appeared as a short-term shock linked to Middle East disruption is now developing into a structural constraint on global air cargo operations.

The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed a key artery for global energy flows, restricting access to around 20–25% of the world’s oil supply. While a ceasefire has eased immediate geopolitical tensions, fuel supply chains remain disrupted, with refining output constrained and replenishment cycles extended.

As a result, jet fuel prices have more than doubled since late February, significantly outpacing the rise in crude oil prices. In some regions, prices have increased by over 100%, while forward markets indicate elevated levels that will persist through the rest of the year. This has fundamentally altered cost structures across the aviation sector, where fuel typically accounts for close to 30% of operating expenses.

Capacity cuts spread

In response to the fuel crisis airlines are implementing capacity reductions across multiple regions, with several major carriers trimming services to manage rising operating costs and preserve profitability.

Cathay Pacific has announced capacity cuts of around 2% from mid-May through June, alongside the suspension of certain Middle East routes. Other carriers, including United Airlines, Air India, Air New Zealand and Vietnam Airlines, have taken similar steps, reducing flight frequencies, cancelling services and tightening operational expenditure.

In Asia, where reliance on Gulf-sourced fuel is particularly high, the impact has been more severe. Some carriers have reduced flight activity significantly, while others have moved into cost-control or contingency modes. Across key Gulf-facing hubs, flight volumes have fallen to roughly one-third of normal levels, reflecting both operational constraints and reduced network viability.

European markets are now beginning to feel the effects. Industry bodies have warned that airports across the EU could face a systemic jet fuel shortage within weeks if supply routes are not restored. With the summer travel season approaching, rising demand for aviation fuel is expected to intensify pressure on already constrained supply chains.

Airlines are responding by reviewing contingency plans. These include further capacity reductions, grounding older aircraft and reallocating fleets towards more fuel-efficient operations. In some cases, carriers are preparing to cut capacity by up to 5% if conditions deteriorate, highlighting the scale of the challenge now facing the sector.

Surcharges surge as cost pressures feed through to rates

On key routes, fuel surcharges have risen dramatically. In some cases, increases of nearly 300% have been recorded month-on-month, with additional uplifts in security-related charges on lanes affected by Middle East disruption. Across global markets, around half of all monitored airfreight routes have seen monthly price increases of 20% or more.

These changes are being driven by a dual pressure: reduced effective capacity and rising operating costs. The withdrawal of capacity from Middle Eastern hubs, which previously handled a significant share of Asia–Europe cargo flows, has forced a reconfiguration of global networks. At the same time, higher fuel costs are increasing the cost per available tonne kilometre across all long-haul routes.

A prolonged disruption with structural implications

The jet fuel crisis is no longer a short-term disruption. Even if geopolitical conditions stabilise, the structural impacts on fuel supply chains, refining capacity and global air networks will take time to resolve.

Europe’s reliance on imported jet fuel has been exposed, with limited domestic refining capacity increasing vulnerability to external shocks. Calls are growing for coordinated action, including joint procurement, alternative sourcing strategies and regulatory adjustments to improve supply resilience.

For air freight markets, the outlook remains uncertain. Capacity is tightening, costs are elevated and volatility is likely to persist through May, June and beyond. The balance between supply and demand is being shaped less by cargo volumes and more by the availability and cost of fuel.

Metro supports customers through these conditions with agile air freight solutions, proactive routing strategies and real-time market insight. As fuel-driven disruption reshapes global air cargo, having the right partner in place is critical to maintaining flow, controlling cost and protecting supply chain performance.

EMAIL Managing Director Andy Smith.

Truck in Switzerland

A tougher European road market and a UK edging back towards it

Apr 15, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

For years, the road freight market has been under sustained pressure, shaped by a combination of post-Brexit structural change, rising costs and geopolitical disruption. 

At the same time, there are early signs that the UK may begin to move closer to Europe in practical, trade-focused ways, in a shift that could have meaningful implications for cross-border logistics.

For now, however, the market remains challenging.

Since Brexit, UK–EU road freight has been defined by increased friction. New customs processes, regulatory checks and border systems have added cost, complexity and delay, particularly for groupage and mixed loads.

The impact is clear in the data. Road freight volumes are estimated to be down by over 10% since Brexit, reflecting weaker trade flows and reduced demand. UK exports to the EU have also taken a structural hit, with studies pointing to a decline of around 16%.

At the same time, the number of operators has fallen sharply. Between 2021 and 2025, 2,051 UK road haulage companies became insolvent, which is almost double the 1,068 recorded in the previous five-year period. That equates to nearly eight hauliers exiting the market every week.

This combination of lower volumes and higher costs has fundamentally reshaped the sector. Capacity has tightened, margins have come under pressure, and the market has consolidated around stronger, more resilient operators.

Rising costs and the impact of the Iran war

The Iran conflict has added a new layer of pressure at a time when the sector was only just stabilising. Fuel costs, which can account for up to 30% of operating expenses, have risen sharply, with industry bodies warning this represents a structural shift rather than a temporary spike.

Across Europe, operators are now dealing with sustained fuel volatility, tightening supply and increasing financial strain. The knock-on effects are being felt across the entire road freight ecosystem, from pricing and capacity to investment decisions and fleet utilisation.

At the same time, additional cost pressures continue to build. Driver shortages remain unresolved, pushing up wages and limiting flexibility. New tolling regimes are increasing the cost of operating across key European markets. Regulatory changes, including evolving border systems on both sides of the Channel, are adding further administrative burden.

This is not just a UK issue. Across Europe, the road freight market remains fragile, with growth limited to just 0.5%, with many key markets recording declines.

The short-term outlook is closely tied to energy markets, geopolitical developments and spiking fuel costs. In this environment, many operators are focused on protecting margins and maintaining utilisation rather than expanding. Investment is being delayed, networks are being rationalised, and risk appetite remains low.

Signs of a closer UK–EU relationship

Against this backdrop, there are early signs of a shift in the UK–EU relationship. As the Trade and Cooperation Agreement comes up for review, both sides are exploring ways to reduce friction and improve trade flows.

Potential developments include veterinary and SPS agreements to streamline border checks, deeper customs cooperation and more structured alignment on energy and climate policy. For road freight, these are not abstract political discussions, they directly influence transit times, costs and reliability.

Even incremental improvements could have a meaningful impact, helping restore confidence, support volume recovery and reduce operational complexity.

Metro’s European division bucks the trend

While much of the market is under pressure, Metro’s European road freight division is moving in the opposite direction.

The division has been growing at 40% per year, making it Metro’s fastest-growing business unit. This performance stands in sharp contrast to the wider market, where volumes are flat or declining and operators are exiting the sector.

This growth has been driven by a clear and deliberate strategy. Metro has invested in building a strong European network, with high-quality groupage services into key markets including the Netherlands, Turkey, Poland and Iberia, alongside established strengths in France and Germany.

The business offers a balanced mix of less-than-truckload (LTL) and full-truckload (FTL) solutions, with a range of equipment, security and service options, giving customers flexibility as demand patterns shift. Crucially, the focus is on tailored, customer-led solutions, adapting routing, transit times and documentation processes to meet specific requirements.

In a more complex post-Brexit environment, this approach is proving highly effective. Rather than avoiding complexity, Metro is helping customers navigate it, smoothing customs processes, reducing risk and maintaining flow across European supply chains.

As the European road freight landscape continues to evolve, Metro provides the expertise, network strength and proactive approach needed to keep goods moving. Helping customers manage complexity, control cost and unlock opportunity across UK–EU trade. 

EMAIL our Managing Director Andy Smith to learn how we can secure your European supply chains.

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