ULD on tarmac

Air freight market tightens ahead of autumn peak

Sep 2, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Air freight enters the traditional peak-season build-up with a finely balanced market, as capacity reductions and resilient pricing create the potential for rapid tightening when Asian export demand accelerates.

The usual late-September surge may still be several weeks away, but UK importers have good reason to start planning now.

Asia–Europe demand softened during August, yet rates have shown little corresponding weakness. Airlines and freighter operators are adjusting capacity as cargo flows change, while higher fuel costs and stronger demand on alternative trade lanes are providing additional support.

That leaves limited spare capacity to absorb the traditional autumn increase – particularly if ocean freight disruption pushes urgent shipments towards air.

Softer demand is not delivering cheaper capacity

Asia Pacific–Europe chargeable weight fell 5% week on week and 14% year on year in week 33, continuing the softer trend evident since late June.

Changing e-commerce flows have contributed to the decline. China–Europe volumes were 8% lower year on year in week 32, while Hong Kong–Europe traffic fell 29%.

Despite that weakness, Asia Pacific–Europe spot rates remained flat in week 33 after rising 1% the previous week. China was particularly resilient, recording a 6% increase despite lower volumes.

The explanation lies partly on the supply side. Asia Pacific capacity contracted 2% in week 33 after declining 1% the previous week, limiting the downward pressure on rates.

Freighter deployment may tighten the market further. Stronger transpacific demand provides operators with an incentive to allocate aircraft towards the US, potentially reducing the capacity available for European cargo as peak season approaches.

China shows how quickly conditions can change

Recent disruption around Shanghai illustrates the vulnerability of available capacity.

Typhoon Dolphin caused more than 1,000 flight cancellations and contributed to an 8% weekly reduction in chargeable weight from Shanghai, while Shanghai–Europe volumes fell 7%.

The immediate disruption has eased, but severe weather and congestion across Chinese ocean gateways remain relevant to the air freight outlook. When container schedules become unreliable, urgent and time-sensitive cargo can quickly switch from ocean to air.

Even a relatively small modal shift can have a disproportionate effect on air freight capacity and pricing.

Golden Week could mark the turning point

The next significant test comes around China's Golden Week.

Factories traditionally accelerate production before the holiday, followed by another increase as operations resume and backlogs clear. October also brings the start of the main pre-Christmas replenishment cycle.

Demand then typically intensifies through November as retailers and e-commerce businesses prepare for Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas.

This year, however, the market enters that period with capacity already responding closely to demand. That could make the transition from today's relatively balanced conditions to a tighter market particularly rapid.

Fuel costs, severe weather, changing freighter deployment and disruption to ocean services provide additional variables.

The opportunity is before the peak

For shippers, softer August volumes could offer a useful planning window rather than a reason to wait for lower rates.

Businesses with visibility of their autumn requirements can secure allocations earlier, consider alternative origins and gateways, and decide which shipments genuinely require premium air services.

Booking ahead of cargo-ready dates will become increasingly important as demand builds, particularly from China and other major Asian export markets. Flexible routing can also provide valuable alternatives when individual gateways or direct services tighten.

The key consideration is not simply today's air freight rate, but the availability of the right capacity when cargo needs to move.

Metro combines extensive Asian origin coverage with global airline relationships, flexible routing and multiple service levels to keep UK supply chains moving when peak-season capacity tightens. 

Share your autumn forecasts with Metro now and we can secure the capacity, routing and service strategy your cargo needs before the peak takes hold.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Metro’s Managing Director.

El Nino

El Niño puts temperature-controlled supply chains under new pressure

Sep 2, 2026 | , ,

Climate volatility is becoming an increasingly important cold-chain risk, as extreme temperatures, disrupted transport networks and the developing El Niño pattern threaten the reliability and cost of moving perishable goods.

For food and beverage supply chains, weather has always influenced production and logistics. What is changing is the frequency, severity and interconnected nature of that disruption.

Higher ambient temperatures put refrigeration equipment under greater strain, while floods, storms, drought and infrastructure disruption can extend transit times and increase the risk of temperature excursions. At the same time, changing weather patterns are affecting where food is produced and how it reaches major consumer markets.

El Niño could amplify those pressures through late 2026 and into 2027, just as Europe and North America become increasingly dependent on refrigerated imports from Latin America.

Cold-chain trade is shifting south

The geography of refrigerated container trade is changing. North-south reefer trades are growing faster than traditional east-west flows, with North America and Europe importing 1.49 million TEU of refrigerated goods from Mexico, Central America and South America during 2025 – an 8.9% increase year on year.

South America is becoming increasingly important for products ranging from fresh fruit and vegetables to meat. West Coast South America–North America reefer trade has grown 24% over five years, while Peru has emerged as an increasingly significant source of refrigerated imports.

That growing dependence means disruption to Latin American production or shipping can have consequences thousands of miles away.

El Niño could disrupt harvests and shipping

The developing El Niño pattern creates risks at both ends of the supply chain. Its effects are forecast to peak during the fourth quarter of 2026 and first quarter of 2027, coinciding with the Southern Hemisphere harvest season.

Parts of South America could experience alternating drought and coastal flooding, threatening agricultural production and export flows. Chile, Colombia and Peru are among the markets considered particularly exposed. 

Demand for food does not disappear when production is disrupted. Buyers may instead need to switch sourcing regions, creating sudden changes in trade flows and demand for refrigerated equipment and vessel capacity.

The Panama Canal adds another complication. Falling water levels and tighter transit restrictions can reduce vessel intake and disrupt schedules on an important route connecting Latin American production with Northern Hemisphere markets.

Heat increases the risks in transit

Climate pressure does not end once produce has been harvested. Higher ambient temperatures increase the thermal load on refrigerated containers, warehouses and transport equipment. Refrigeration systems work harder, energy consumption rises and equipment operating close to its limits becomes more vulnerable to reduced efficiency or failure.

The points between temperature-controlled environments become particularly important. Loading, unloading and other handling processes expose cargo to ambient conditions, reducing the margin for delay when outside temperatures rise.

Extreme weather can simultaneously close roads, disrupt ports, interrupt power supplies or delay vessels. For temperature-sensitive food, an extended journey is not simply an inconvenience: it can affect quality, shelf life and ultimately product viability.

Reefer capacity is already under pressure

These risks are developing against an already firm refrigerated freight market. Reefer plug availability remains limited in some locations, alongside supporting equipment such as chassis gensets. Elevated fuel costs and strong overall container demand are also adding pressure.

The composite refrigerated freight index for the third quarter of 2026 is 20% higher than a year earlier. 

For lower-value agricultural commodities, freight inflation can become particularly significant because logistics represents a greater proportion of the product's value.

Weather disruption could tighten the equation further. Changes in harvest volumes, sourcing locations and shipping routes can create sudden demand for reefer equipment in places where it was not originally positioned.

Cold chains need to become more adaptable

As historic weather patterns become less reliable, cold-chain planning increasingly needs to account for conditions outside traditional assumptions.

Real-time temperature monitoring can identify excursions before they compromise cargo, while greater visibility across transport legs helps businesses respond when delays occur.

Contingency routing and alternative sourcing can reduce dependence on individual gateways or production regions. Reviewing refrigeration performance, backup power and thermal protection can also help identify vulnerabilities before extreme conditions expose them.

For importers, the objective is increasingly to understand the entire cold chain – from changing conditions at origin through ocean transport and port handling to final delivery.

The coming El Niño cycle provides a timely reminder that temperature control alone does not create cold-chain resilience. Sourcing, capacity, routing, equipment, monitoring and contingency planning all need to work together.

Protecting temperature-sensitive supply chains

Metro has extensive experience supporting the food and beverage sector and managing complex temperature-controlled supply chains from origin to final delivery. 

Our global network, cold-chain expertise and access to alternative carriers, routes and solutions give customers the flexibility to respond when weather changes production, capacity or transit conditions. 

When product integrity and shelf life leave no room for error, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Metro’s Managing Director, about building a cold chain designed to keep performing when conditions do not.

Shanghai Hongqiao Airport 1440x1080 1

Regional airfreight demand and capacity diverge

Aug 19, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The global airfreight market is becoming increasingly difficult to predict through headline averages. While worldwide volumes remain above last year’s levels, conditions are diverging sharply between individual origins and trade lanes as de-minimis regulation, technology demand, weather disruption and capacity shifts reshape cargo flows.

For UK, European and US shippers, this means the availability and cost of airfreight increasingly depend on exactly where cargo originates and which carrier networks it uses. Asia may appear relatively balanced overall, while individual gateways can experience much tighter capacity or rapidly changing rates.

The latest WorldACD data reinforces that picture. Global tonnage fell 4% in the latest reporting week, but remained 1% higher year on year, while individual Asian origins recorded movements ranging from double-digit growth to double-digit declines. 

Asia–Europe adjusts to e-commerce changes and shifting capacity

Asia–Europe is undergoing a significant adjustment following changes to the EU’s treatment of low-value e-commerce shipments.

The introduction of a €3 charge on packages valued below €150 at the beginning of July has affected one of air cargo’s most important sources of recent growth. By week 32, China–Europe e-commerce volumes were 8% lower year on year, while Hong Kong–Europe volumes were down almost 30%.

Overall Asia Pacific–Europe tonnage fell, yet rates moved in the opposite direction on some important lanes, with Asia Pacific–Europe spot pricing increasing 1%, led by a 6% increase from China and 3% from Hong Kong.

This apparent contradiction reflects changes in available capacity. Freighter capacity previously deployed for e-commerce traffic appears to be moving between markets, allowing pricing to strengthen even as overall volumes soften.

Weather is adding another variable. Typhoon Dolphin caused more than 1,000 flight cancellations in Shanghai, contributing to an 8% week-on-week decline in total air cargo from the gateway. Disruption to Chinese seaports could subsequently generate some modal shift from ocean to air as businesses try to recover delayed shipments.

“Airfreight is becoming much more localised,” says Phil Morris, Metro’s Head of Airfreight. “A regional average can suggest that capacity is plentiful, but that may not reflect what is happening at an individual origin. Shippers increasingly need to look at the cargo mix, available capacity and conditions at specific gateways rather than relying on the headline market.”

Transpacific technology demand creates localised pressure

The transpacific market presents a different picture. Asia Pacific–US tonnage declined 4% week on week in early August and spot rates fell 3%, suggesting a relatively balanced market at regional level. But significant variations sit beneath those figures.

Japan–US volumes increased 12% in a single week, while Taiwan and Indonesia’s volumes were down around 10%. High-value technology cargo is also supporting demand from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.

AI servers, semiconductors, electronics and associated data-centre infrastructure are particularly important because these products are high-value, time-sensitive and often linked to fixed deployment schedules. Airfreight can therefore remain the preferred mode even when ocean capacity is available.

That demand can have consequences for businesses outside the technology sector. Cargo moving through the same airports, using the same freighter capacity or competing for uplift during concentrated production periods can encounter tighter availability and firmer pricing.

“For shippers, it is important to understand what else is moving from their origin,” Phil adds. “A surge in one high-value vertical can tighten an airport very quickly. That makes early conversations about capacity and alternative routings particularly valuable, especially as we approach Q4.”

Further typhoon activity across Asia could amplify these localised pressures if flight cancellations or airport disruption coincide with peaks in technology exports.

Transatlantic capacity remains comparatively accessible

The transatlantic market currently offers a more stable environment, with capacity generally available as the summer passenger schedule provides substantial belly-hold space.

WorldACD data shows North America–Europe volumes fell 5% over the latest two-week comparison, while European exports to North America increased 3%. This creates different conditions depending on direction rather than a single transatlantic trend.

The current availability provides an opportunity for shippers with flexible requirements, but the position could change as passenger schedules transition from summer to winter and belly capacity reduces.

The broader lesson is that airfreight has moved away from a market where one global trend reliably describes conditions everywhere. Regulation is reshaping e-commerce demand, technology is concentrating demand around particular Asian origins, weather can remove capacity with little warning and seasonal passenger schedules continue to influence individual corridors.

Shippers can respond by separating genuinely time-critical freight from cargo with greater delivery flexibility, securing capacity earlier on constrained origins and maintaining alternative gateway and routing options.

Metro’s global airfreight network gives shippers the visibility and flexibility to respond to these increasingly localised conditions. Our airfreight teams monitor capacity, rates, weather disruption and demand at origin level, identifying where space is tightening and where alternative gateways, carriers or routings can provide an advantage. 

Whether you are moving cargo from Asia to the UK, Europe or US, or across the Atlantic, talk to Metro early so we can secure the capacity and routing that best protects your cost, transit time and delivery commitments.

To learn more, EMAIL Managing Director Andrew Smith today

White House 1440x1080 1

US tariff uncertainty is becoming a permanent supply chain challenge

Aug 19, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

US importers face another period of significant trade policy change as the Trump administration expands its use of tariffs across countries, commodities and industries.

The immediate challenge is understanding which measures apply and how they interact. The wider issue is more fundamental: Section 301 is developing into a broad mechanism for imposing additional tariffs, while stricter customs enforcement increases the financial consequences of getting classification, valuation or origin wrong.

For importers, tariff exposure can no longer be treated as a temporary disruption. It increasingly needs to form part of sourcing, landed-cost and customs compliance decisions.

New tariffs broaden importer exposure

The latest changes follow the expiry of temporary Section 122 tariffs introduced in February 2026 after the Supreme Court overturned the administration’s earlier use of emergency powers for its ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.

On 24 July, the administration introduced new tariffs on 59 countries and the European Union following a Section 301 investigation into goods allegedly produced using forced labour. The measures effectively restored a 10%–12% minimum tariff across economies responsible for around 99% of US imports, although significant product exemptions remain.

The UK was placed in the 10% group rather than the 12.5% tier applied to many other countries. There are product-specific exemptions under the UK-US Economic Prosperity Deal, so the 10% does not apply universally.

UK automotive exports benefit from a 10% tariff within the agreed 100,000-vehicle quota, aerospace goods have preferential treatment, and UK pharmaceutical exports secured 0% tariffs in April 2026. Different Section 232 or other measures can also apply depending on the commodity.

These duties can also stack on top of existing measures, helping push the estimated overall US effective tariff rate to approximately 10.8%.

Some individual measures go considerably further. Selected Brazilian goods face additional tariffs of 25%, while certain Canadian products have been targeted with duties of 50%. From 31 July, some pharmaceutical imports also became subject to tariffs reaching 100%.

More measures could follow. An investigation into excess industrial capacity covers 16 economies, including China, India, Japan and the EU, while further action targeting digital policies and specific industries remains possible.

The near-term outlook therefore points towards continued volatility rather than simplification. Importers should expect tariffs to change by country, product and policy objective, making total landed-cost calculations increasingly important when comparing suppliers and sourcing locations.

Enforcement raises the cost of getting customs wrong

Tariffs are only one part of the financial exposure. US Customs and Border Protection is also moving towards more aggressive enforcement.

Importers face increased scrutiny of the three areas fundamental to duty assessment: tariff classification, customs valuation and country of origin. Errors can result not only in additional duty assessments but potentially penalties where authorities believe tariffs have been avoided.

The scope for mitigating penalties may also be narrowing. Industry analysis indicates that reductions which historically could reach 90% are becoming less readily available, with mitigation potentially limited to around 50% for trusted traders able to demonstrate effective written controls and robust compliance procedures.

This makes customs governance increasingly important. Importers should review classifications, origin determinations and valuation methodologies before goods arrive rather than relying on retrospective corrections.

Procurement contracts also deserve attention. Businesses may need clearer provisions determining which party absorbs new tariffs and what happens if government action materially changes the economics of an existing sourcing agreement.

Tariffs are likely to remain part of the landscape

Legal challenges continue, including action involving 25 US states, but importers should be cautious about building their strategy around the prospect of tariffs disappearing.

Section 301 has expanded well beyond its previous association with China and is increasingly being used across different countries and policy objectives. Further investigations are expected, suggesting additional tariff announcements remain possible.

Even successful legal challenges may not deliver lasting certainty if the administration replaces overturned measures using alternative statutory authority.

For importers, this changes the emphasis from reacting to individual tariff announcements to building greater resilience into customs and sourcing strategies. That means modelling landed costs under different tariff scenarios, reviewing alternative origins and suppliers, maintaining accurate customs data and identifying opportunities to use legitimate duty-management mechanisms.

Metro’s growing US footprint combined with customs brokerage capability at every US gateway gives importers the support they need as tariff and enforcement requirements become more complex. Our teams can review classification, valuation, origin and duty exposure before cargo moves, identify potential customs risks and help you understand how changing tariffs affect your true landed cost.

With US trade policy changing quickly, don’t wait for a new tariff or customs intervention to expose a problem. Talk to Metro now about reviewing your imports, customs compliance and duty exposure. EMAIL Managing Director Andrew Smith.

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