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Middle East disruption reshapes air freight market as capacity tightens and rates surge

Mar 31, 2026 | ,

Air freight markets are entering a more volatile phase as disruption across the Middle East removes critical capacity from the system, forcing rapid network adjustments and driving sustained upward pressure on rates.

The immediate impact has been a sharp contraction in available lift. Middle East carriers, which play a central role in connecting Asia, Europe and Africa, have significantly reduced operations, with some periods showing capacity declines of up to 49% week-on-week. 

Globally, capacity remains below pre-crisis levels, still down around 11% compared with early February, despite partial recovery from initial losses. Although airlines are adding direct services on alternative routings, including Asia–Europe and transpacific lanes, these increases are not sufficient to offset the loss of hub connectivity through the Gulf.

Strong demand and rising costs drive rate pressure

The result is a tightening market where demand continues to outpace supply. Air freight volumes had already been growing steadily, with global demand up by around 6–8% in the early months of the year.

This combination of constrained capacity and resilient demand is now feeding directly into pricing. Spot rates on key lanes have risen sharply, with Asia–Europe pricing increasing by around 30% in recent weeks, while India–Europe and India–US routes have seen increases of between 50% and 80%. In some cases, rates have more than doubled compared with pre-disruption levels.

India has been particularly affected, where capacity reductions of up to 70% at major gateways have created acute shortages of available lift. With limited freighter capacity and reduced wide-body schedules, competition for space has intensified, pushing pricing higher and making it increasingly difficult to secure capacity at short notice.

Rising fuel costs are adding further pressure. Jet fuel typically accounts for 30–40% of airline operating costs, and increases linked to the disruption are being passed through into freight rates, reinforcing the upward pricing trend.

Backlogs build across global supply chains

Beyond pricing, the operational impact is becoming more visible across global supply chains. Cargo backlogs are building at origin, transit and destination points as shipments compete for limited space. 

At the same time, disruption in ocean freight networks is driving modal shift into air freight, adding further demand into an already constrained market.

Even with some capacity returning, recovery is expected to be gradual. Aircraft repositioning, schedule rebuilding and the clearing of accumulated backlogs will take time, meaning disruption is likely to persist even if conditions stabilise in the near term.

Overcoming air freight disruption

By combining strong carrier relationships with real-time market visibility, Metro is securing capacity across constrained trade lanes, identifying viable alternative routings and implementing multimodal solutions where traditional air networks are under pressure.

Through Metro’s MVT platform, customers benefit from enhanced tracking, milestone visibility and data-led decision-making, helping to maintain control even as conditions change. Where disruption is most acute, Metro works proactively to reposition cargo, manage backlogs and protect transit times.

With global coverage, local expertise and the ability to adapt quickly as networks evolve, Metro helps you stay ahead of disruption rather than react to it.

To discuss your current air freight requirements or contingency planning, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director,

Trucks Middle East

Middle East overland networks under strain

Mar 31, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Overland transport across the Middle East has moved from a contingency option to a critical component of regional supply chains, as disruption to ocean and air networks forces cargo onto road-based alternatives. The result is a rapidly tightening environment, where capacity, infrastructure and cross-border processes are all under increasing pressure.

With ocean access into the Gulf restricted, containers are being discharged at ports outside the region and redirected inland via road networks. Oman, alongside locations such as Khor Fakkan, Sohar and Jeddah, has become a central staging point for cargo moving into Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets.

In practice, this means cargo originally destined for major hubs such as Jebel Ali or Hamad is now entering the region through a variety of entry points, with no standardised routing approach. As a result, overland transport is playing a far greater role in bridging gaps between discharge locations and final delivery points.

However, the infrastructure supporting this shift was not designed for sustained, high-volume container flows over long distances, and pressure is building quickly.

Trucking capacity shortages and border constraints

The rapid increase in inland volumes is exposing structural limitations across regional road networks. Trucking capacity is tightening across key corridors linking Oman, Fujairah and Saudi Arabia, with shortages extending transit times and delaying cargo recovery.

Congestion is intensifying at key nodes. In some locations, terminals are operating at full capacity, with vessel queues and dwell times extending beyond 10 days, while long truck queues are forming as cargo competes for onward movement.

At the same time, cross-border complexity is increasing. Driver availability is constrained by visa processing delays, with queues extending for hours and reducing the number of journeys each vehicle can complete. Additional restrictions on driver nationality are further limiting capacity on certain routes.

Operational constraints are also emerging at a regulatory level. Cross-border trucking is not always seamless, with limitations on where vehicles can operate and additional charges being introduced in some markets, increasing both cost and administrative complexity.

As a result, transit times are becoming less predictable and costs are rising sharply. In extreme cases, urgent shipments have seen trucking rates escalate significantly above typical market levels, reflecting both scarcity of capacity and the urgency of demand.

The weekend drone strike on the Port of Salalah has highlighted how exposed overland networks are to disruption at key staging points. The temporary closure of the terminal interrupted a critical gateway for cargo being discharged and moved inland to Gulf markets.

Although operations are set to resume from Tuesday 31st March, constraints are expected to continue, limiting throughput and adding further pressure to already congested road corridors.

Overland not scalable at current volumes

As disruption continues, overland transport is becoming a core part of regional supply chains rather than a temporary workaround. Road, rail and multimodal solutions are being deployed extensively to maintain flow into the Gulf, supported by a growing network of alternative corridors.

However, these solutions are not scalable at the level required to fully replace traditional ocean routes. Capacity limitations, border delays and infrastructure constraints are creating a bottleneck that is likely to persist as long as disruption continues.

For shippers, the challenge is operational as much as strategic — managing cargo already in transit, navigating changing routing decisions and securing inland capacity in a highly constrained environment.

Keep cargo moving with integrated solutions

By combining regional expertise and coverage with established multimodal networks, Metro is coordinating road, air-road and alternative routing strategies to bridge gaps created by disrupted ocean and air services.

Metro works proactively to secure trucking capacity, manage cross-border movements and identify the most effective corridors based on real-time conditions, reducing delays and maintaining control in a highly fluid environment.

With full visibility through the MVT platform, customers can track cargo across inland networks, monitor congestion and adapt quickly as routes and constraints evolve.

If your cargo is impacted or at risk of delay, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to secure capacity and define a clear route forward.

Jebel Ali

Middle East disruption continues to reshape global supply chains

Mar 18, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Middle East linked disruption extends well beyond the region, with growing implications for global supply chains. 

As capacity tightens, routes are reconfigured and costs come under pressure, supply chains are entering a more complex and less predictable phase.

Air freight capacity tightens

Air freight markets are among the most immediately affected. Reduced capacity through key Gulf hubs — which typically handle a significant share of global cargo flows and particularly Asia — has forced airlines to reroute services and limit network coverage.

Market data indicates that capacity reductions in parts of the Middle East and South Asia have been significantly steeper than the decline in volumes, creating a sharp imbalance between supply and demand. As a result, rates on some key east–west corridors have risen by more than 50% week on week, with spot pricing increasing at an even faster pace.

Cargo is increasingly being redirected via alternative gateways such as China and Hong Kong, placing additional pressure on corridors that were previously less affected. This is tightening capacity across Asia–Europe routes and contributing to delays, space shortages and short-notice schedule changes.

At the same time, rising fuel costs and the introduction of war risk-related surcharges are adding further upward pressure, while rate validity is shortening as carriers respond to rapidly changing conditions.

Ocean disruption drives congestion, diversion and equipment imbalances

Ocean freight is facing a different but equally significant set of challenges. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a corridor that typically handles a substantial share of global energy flows — has led to a dramatic reduction in vessel transits, with movements down by around 95% compared to normal levels.

Shipping lines have suspended services into the Arabian Gulf and are diverting vessels to alternative ports, where cargo is being discharged and held for onward movement. This is creating a knock-on effect across surrounding regions.

Ports outside the Gulf are now absorbing unexpected volumes. Congestion levels at key contingency hubs have reached critical levels, with some locations operating at or near full capacity and vessel waiting times extending well beyond normal ranges.

At the same time, an estimated 200,000+ TEU of capacity remains effectively trapped within the Gulf, contributing to equipment shortages in Asia as empty containers are unable to return to origin markets. This imbalance is expected to place further pressure on export flows in the coming weeks.

Rising bunker costs are also beginning to influence vessel operations, with some operators reducing sailing speeds to manage fuel consumption, adding further variability to transit times.

Costs rise as surcharges and fuel pressures build

Across both air and ocean freight, cost pressure is becoming more pronounced. Emergency surcharges linked to fuel volatility, war risk and network disruption are being introduced or expanded across multiple trade lanes.

Air freight rates have already increased sharply on key routes, while ocean carriers are implementing additional charges to reflect higher operating costs and longer routing distances. In parallel, regulatory scrutiny is increasing, particularly around how surcharges are applied and communicated.

For shippers, this is creating a more complex cost environment, where pricing can change quickly and visibility is reduced.

The past few weeks have highlighted how quickly supply chain assumptions can change and how important it is to have flexible, well-informed contingency options in place.

Metro is supporting customers by identifying alternative routings, securing capacity across air and ocean networks, and maintaining close operational control as conditions evolve.

To discuss how this situation could impact your supply chain, or to review practical routing and cost options, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director at Metro, for a direct and informed response.

Emirates Dubai

Air freight faces tighter capacity, higher costs and more complex routing decisions

Mar 18, 2026 | ,

Air freight is coming under growing pressure as disruption in the Middle East continues to reshape capacity, routing and pricing across key global trade lanes. 

While the impact varies by origin and destination, the overall pattern is clear: space has tightened, costs have risen and shippers are being forced to make faster, more flexible decisions.

The sharpest changes are being seen on services linking Asia and Europe, as well as on traffic moving out of India and wider South Asia.

Rates from Hong Kong to Europe have risen by almost 30% since the outbreak of the conflict, while pricing from India has moved much more aggressively, with increases of around 60% to the US and approximately 80% to Europe. More broadly, rates from several Asian origins into Europe have risen at double-digit weekly levels as cargo that would previously have moved through Gulf hubs is redirected elsewhere.

This reflects a market where disruption is not affecting all lanes equally. Some routes have seen relatively limited change, while others have tightened quickly as shippers compete for a smaller pool of available uplift.

Capacity loss through Gulf hubs is changing the shape of the market

A large share of Asia–Europe air cargo normally moves via the Middle East, so reduced operations at major Gulf hubs are having a wider effect on the global network.

Capacity to and from the most affected Middle Eastern airports has fallen sharply from normal levels, and overall global air cargo capacity remains below pre-conflict norms. 

Some of the hardest-hit corridors have seen available space fall by around 40%, particularly on lanes linking Asia Pacific with the Middle East and the Middle East with Europe.

As a result, cargo is being pushed towards direct services or rerouted through Asian hubs such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea and Japan. That is helping to restore some connectivity, but it is also creating fresh pressure on feeder legs, intra-Asia services and selected transpacific flows.

In response, carriers have started adding capacity on some Asia Pacific–Europe routes, with space up by roughly 20% on certain corridors. Even so, the market remains tight, and additional capacity has not been enough to remove the pressure entirely.

Fuel surcharges are adding a second layer of cost pressure

Freight rates are only part of the story. Fuel surcharges are also rising rapidly as airlines deal with higher jet fuel costs and longer routings around restricted airspace.

Jet fuel prices have risen sharply, and in some cases the gap between crude oil and jet fuel has widened significantly, increasing the likelihood of further surcharge adjustments. 

Some airlines are now reviewing fuel surcharges weekly rather than monthly, which makes budgeting more difficult, as cost is changing more quickly and with less notice.

This is creating a double cost challenge: higher base freight rates combined with higher fuel-related charges.

The market is reacting with alternative routings

As direct capacity becomes harder to secure, the market is adapting.

Some cargo is being routed on longer, less conventional paths, including via North America, simply because direct Asia–Europe space is too limited or too expensive. These solutions can keep freight moving, but they usually come at a premium and add complexity to planning.

At the same time, demand is increasing for multimodal alternatives. Road connections between airports, regional trucking solutions and other hybrid models are becoming more attractive where they can protect delivery schedules or reduce the cost of a fully airfreight solution.

This is a reminder that the current challenge is not just about price. It is also about network design, transit reliability and how quickly supply chains can adapt when traditional routings become less dependable.

A volatile market is masking very different lane-by-lane realities

Headline air freight indices suggest the global market has moved only modestly overall, with broad average rates rising by only small percentages week on week and remaining close to last year’s levels.

However, those averages disguise major differences between individual trade lanes. Some corridors have posted only limited movement, while others have risen sharply in a matter of days. Outbound Asia has shown particularly wide divergence, with strong gains into Europe from several origins, while some US-bound lanes have softened or remained mixed.

For shippers, that means average market data only tells part of the story. The real challenge is understanding where pressure is building, where capacity is returning, and which routing options remain commercially viable.

Air freight decisions are becoming more time-sensitive, more expensive and more dependent on having the right alternatives ready.

Metro helps customers navigate tight capacity, fuel-driven cost changes and shifting routings by building practical options around urgency, cargo profile and destination requirements.

If you need to assess the most reliable or cost-effective way to move time-critical freight, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director at Metro. He can help you explore direct air, alternative gateway and routing options in line with current market conditions.

Category: Air

Air | Middle East

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