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Regional airfreight demand and capacity diverge

Aug 19, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The global airfreight market is becoming increasingly difficult to predict through headline averages. While worldwide volumes remain above last year’s levels, conditions are diverging sharply between individual origins and trade lanes as de-minimis regulation, technology demand, weather disruption and capacity shifts reshape cargo flows.

For UK, European and US shippers, this means the availability and cost of airfreight increasingly depend on exactly where cargo originates and which carrier networks it uses. Asia may appear relatively balanced overall, while individual gateways can experience much tighter capacity or rapidly changing rates.

The latest WorldACD data reinforces that picture. Global tonnage fell 4% in the latest reporting week, but remained 1% higher year on year, while individual Asian origins recorded movements ranging from double-digit growth to double-digit declines. 

Asia–Europe adjusts to e-commerce changes and shifting capacity

Asia–Europe is undergoing a significant adjustment following changes to the EU’s treatment of low-value e-commerce shipments.

The introduction of a €3 charge on packages valued below €150 at the beginning of July has affected one of air cargo’s most important sources of recent growth. By week 32, China–Europe e-commerce volumes were 8% lower year on year, while Hong Kong–Europe volumes were down almost 30%.

Overall Asia Pacific–Europe tonnage fell, yet rates moved in the opposite direction on some important lanes, with Asia Pacific–Europe spot pricing increasing 1%, led by a 6% increase from China and 3% from Hong Kong.

This apparent contradiction reflects changes in available capacity. Freighter capacity previously deployed for e-commerce traffic appears to be moving between markets, allowing pricing to strengthen even as overall volumes soften.

Weather is adding another variable. Typhoon Dolphin caused more than 1,000 flight cancellations in Shanghai, contributing to an 8% week-on-week decline in total air cargo from the gateway. Disruption to Chinese seaports could subsequently generate some modal shift from ocean to air as businesses try to recover delayed shipments.

“Airfreight is becoming much more localised,” says Phil Morris, Metro’s Head of Airfreight. “A regional average can suggest that capacity is plentiful, but that may not reflect what is happening at an individual origin. Shippers increasingly need to look at the cargo mix, available capacity and conditions at specific gateways rather than relying on the headline market.”

Transpacific technology demand creates localised pressure

The transpacific market presents a different picture. Asia Pacific–US tonnage declined 4% week on week in early August and spot rates fell 3%, suggesting a relatively balanced market at regional level. But significant variations sit beneath those figures.

Japan–US volumes increased 12% in a single week, while Taiwan and Indonesia’s volumes were down around 10%. High-value technology cargo is also supporting demand from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.

AI servers, semiconductors, electronics and associated data-centre infrastructure are particularly important because these products are high-value, time-sensitive and often linked to fixed deployment schedules. Airfreight can therefore remain the preferred mode even when ocean capacity is available.

That demand can have consequences for businesses outside the technology sector. Cargo moving through the same airports, using the same freighter capacity or competing for uplift during concentrated production periods can encounter tighter availability and firmer pricing.

“For shippers, it is important to understand what else is moving from their origin,” Phil adds. “A surge in one high-value vertical can tighten an airport very quickly. That makes early conversations about capacity and alternative routings particularly valuable, especially as we approach Q4.”

Further typhoon activity across Asia could amplify these localised pressures if flight cancellations or airport disruption coincide with peaks in technology exports.

Transatlantic capacity remains comparatively accessible

The transatlantic market currently offers a more stable environment, with capacity generally available as the summer passenger schedule provides substantial belly-hold space.

WorldACD data shows North America–Europe volumes fell 5% over the latest two-week comparison, while European exports to North America increased 3%. This creates different conditions depending on direction rather than a single transatlantic trend.

The current availability provides an opportunity for shippers with flexible requirements, but the position could change as passenger schedules transition from summer to winter and belly capacity reduces.

The broader lesson is that airfreight has moved away from a market where one global trend reliably describes conditions everywhere. Regulation is reshaping e-commerce demand, technology is concentrating demand around particular Asian origins, weather can remove capacity with little warning and seasonal passenger schedules continue to influence individual corridors.

Shippers can respond by separating genuinely time-critical freight from cargo with greater delivery flexibility, securing capacity earlier on constrained origins and maintaining alternative gateway and routing options.

Metro’s global airfreight network gives shippers the visibility and flexibility to respond to these increasingly localised conditions. Our airfreight teams monitor capacity, rates, weather disruption and demand at origin level, identifying where space is tightening and where alternative gateways, carriers or routings can provide an advantage. 

Whether you are moving cargo from Asia to the UK, Europe or US, or across the Atlantic, talk to Metro early so we can secure the capacity and routing that best protects your cost, transit time and delivery commitments.

To learn more, EMAIL Managing Director Andrew Smith today

LHR terminal 5

Air freight markets under pressure as capacity struggles to recover

Jul 22, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Global air freight markets continue to outperform expectations, but the balance between supply and demand remains fragile. 

What began as a short-term disruption following renewed conflict in the Middle East has evolved into a more structural capacity challenge, keeping rates elevated and limiting available space on key trade lanes.

Although airlines have adapted their networks and capacity is gradually returning, the market has yet to recover the capacity lost earlier this year. At the same time, resilient demand, particularly from the technology sector, continues to absorb available space, leaving shippers facing higher transport costs and reduced flexibility. 

Middle East disruption continues to shape the market

The collapse of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has extended disruption across international air cargo networks well beyond initial expectations.

Several major international airlines have postponed the planned resumption of passenger and freighter services to the Gulf until at least late October, delaying the return of valuable belly-hold and freighter capacity that traditionally supports Asia-Europe cargo flows.

Before the conflict, around one-third of Asia-Europe air freight transited through Middle Eastern hubs. The loss of those services removed approximately 12% of global air cargo capacity almost overnight, forcing airlines to reroute shipments through alternative gateways and deploy additional direct freighter services wherever possible.

Despite these adjustments, capacity growth has lagged behind demand throughout 2026. Global air cargo demand increased by around 4% during the first half of the year, while available capacity expanded by only around 1%, creating the imbalance that continues to support elevated freight rates.

As a result, industry forecasts have changed significantly. Expectations that freight rates would fall during 2026 have been replaced by forecasts of annual increases up to 15%, reflecting the ongoing supply constraints affecting the market.

Demand remains resilient as market dynamics evolve

While geopolitical disruption has constrained capacity, changing demand patterns are also reshaping global air freight.

The rapid growth of artificial intelligence infrastructure is generating exceptional demand for semiconductor and data centre equipment, particularly on Transpacific services. Global semiconductor sales more than doubled year on year during the spring, creating sustained demand for premium air freight capacity.

Although AI-related shipments still represent a relatively small proportion of total air cargo volumes, they are highly concentrated on key trade lanes and typically require fast, reliable transport, placing additional pressure on available freighter capacity.

By contrast, the extraordinary growth in cross-border e-commerce that has supported air freight markets in recent years is beginning to moderate.

Changes to low-value import rules in both the United States and the European Union have reduced demand for some e-commerce shipments, with exports of low-value goods from China continuing to decline. While this has eased pressure on certain trade lanes, the reduction has been more than offset by continued strength in industrial manufacturing, technology exports and higher-value cargo.

Airlines continue to compete for scarce freighter capacity

The industry's ability to respond to changing demand remains constrained by a shortage of dedicated freighter aircraft.

Delays to new passenger aircraft deliveries continue to limit passenger-to-freighter conversion programmes, restricting the supply of additional cargo aircraft entering the market. As a result, airlines are increasingly competing not only for freight but also for access to aircraft.

Rather than expanding fleets rapidly, many operators are pursuing partnerships, aircraft acquisitions and strategic investments to secure long-term capacity. Others are repositioning aircraft between markets as demand changes, with freighter deployment shifting rapidly between Asia, Europe and the Americas in response to geopolitical events, humanitarian operations and changing trade flows.

This lack of spare capacity means the market remains particularly vulnerable to further disruption. Any significant geopolitical event, weather-related disruption or operational shock has the potential to tighten capacity quickly and place renewed upward pressure on rates.

Planning ahead remains the best strategy

Although capacity is expected to improve gradually during the second half of the year, market conditions remain unpredictable.

For shippers moving time-critical or high-value cargo, securing capacity early, maintaining flexible transport options and working closely with dependable logistics partners will remain essential. Businesses that rely on just-in-time supply chains or seasonal inventory should continue to allow additional planning time while airlines rebuild network resilience.

The market has demonstrated remarkable resilience throughout 2026, but it also highlights how quickly global air freight can be reshaped by geopolitical events, changing technology demand and structural capacity constraints.

Keeping your supply chain moving

When capacity is tight, reliability, experience, network strength and proactive planning make the difference.

Metro works with leading airlines and global carrier partners to secure stable air freight capacity across key international trade lanes. Our experienced teams provide tailored routing solutions, customs expertise and end-to-end shipment management, helping customers minimise disruption and keep critical cargo moving, even in challenging market conditions.

To discuss how Metro can strengthen your global air freight strategy and support your international supply chain, EMAIL Managing Director Andrew Smith today.

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IATA’s new air waybill rules shifts risk where it doesn’t belong

Jul 8, 2026 | , , ,

On 1 July, the revised International Air Transport Association (IATA) Direct Air Waybill (DAWB) framework came into force, fundamentally changing the contractual relationship between airlines and freight forwarders. 

IATA's revised DAWB framework has prompted an unusually strong reaction from freight forwarding associations around the world. Their concern is that the new contractual arrangements could transfer legal responsibility for certain shipper failures onto freight forwarders, increasing liability, insurance costs and commercial risk across parts of the air cargo supply chain.

While the changes relate specifically to Direct Air Waybills rather than every airfreight shipment, they raise important questions about where responsibility should sit when something goes wrong.

A fundamental change in liability

Under the revised framework, airlines may now regard the freight forwarder as the primary contracting party rather than simply acting as the shipper's agent.

In practical terms, that means airlines could seek indemnification directly from the forwarder if cargo has been mis-declared, contains concealed dangerous goods or fails to meet packaging requirements, even where those failures originated with the shipper.

The change is particularly significant as air cargo continues to experience strong growth in high-value eCommerce shipments, many of which contain products such as lithium batteries that require strict compliance with dangerous goods regulations.

The concern for freight forwarders is straightforward. They rarely manufacture, pack or load the cargo they move. Yet under the revised framework they may now inherit liabilities arising from decisions made long before the shipment reaches their warehouse.

Why the industry is concerned

Industry associations have reacted strongly.

FIATA has argued that freight forwarders should not be expected to assume contractual obligations for cargo they neither own nor physically control. It has also criticised the speed of implementation, saying the agreed consultation and review process had not been completed before the rules came into force.

The US Airforwarders Association has echoed those concerns, warning members that the changes could expose them to liabilities traditionally carried by the shipper, including packaging failures, concealed dangerous goods and inaccurate cargo declarations.

Adding further uncertainty are reports that not every airline intends to implement the framework in exactly the same way. Instead of one globally consistent process, forwarders may now need to establish different contractual arrangements with individual carriers, creating additional administrative complexity across international air freight networks.

Insurance may no longer fit the risk

Perhaps the greatest concern is insurance.

Traditional freight forwarder liability policies have historically been designed to cover professional negligence, errors and omissions in arranging transport.

They were never intended to provide blanket protection against liabilities created by a shipper's actions.

Insurance specialists have warned that many existing policies may not automatically respond if forwarders are treated as the contractual shipper under the revised DAWB framework. That creates the possibility of coverage gaps, higher premiums and tighter underwriting requirements as insurers reassess the level of exposure.

If logistics providers face greater legal exposure, additional insurance costs and more complex contractual obligations, those costs are likely to flow through the supply chain.

Forwarders will also be expected to carry out more rigorous due diligence before accepting cargo. For shippers, that could mean additional checks, more detailed documentation requirements and longer acceptance processes, particularly for higher-risk commodities.

In reality, the revised framework has the potential to increase costs and administrative burden for everyone involved in the movement of air freight.

Metro can guide you through the changes

Regulatory change should never become an unnecessary commercial risk. Metro's air freight specialists work closely with customers to ensure documentation, dangerous goods compliance, cargo acceptance procedures and insurance considerations are properly managed before shipments enter the airline network.

If you would like to understand how the new DAWB framework could affect your business, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director to keep your cargo moving with confidence.

Emirates Dubai

Air freight remains resilient despite Middle East tensions

Jul 5, 2026 | , ,

Global cargo volumes remained strong throughout June, finishing 9% higher than the same month last year and building on steady growth seen throughout the first half of 2026. 

While capacity has gradually returned to the market following the disruption caused by the Iran-US conflict, pricing remains significantly above last year's levels as airlines continue to operate in a more complex and uncertain environment. 

Although the ceasefire had allowed airlines to restore many services across the Gulf, it is proving to be very fragile and the market is far from returning to normal.

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency on 7 July extended guidance advising airlines to avoid Iranian, Iraqi and Lebanese airspace until the end of August following renewed exchanges between the US and Iran. While restrictions affecting several Gulf states have been relaxed, airlines operating between Europe and Asia continue to face longer routings around conflict zones, increasing both flight times and operating costs. 

Many Gulf carriers have rebuilt schedules and returned aircraft to service, helping overall capacity recover. However, operational planning remains heavily influenced by evolving security assessments, insurance requirements and regulatory guidance, meaning disruption can quickly return if regional tensions escalate. 

Capacity is improving but rates remain elevated

Global air freight capacity has increased by around 3% over recent weeks, with Middle East capacity now marginally above the same period last year. Despite this recovery, average freight rates during June remained approximately one-third higher than a year earlier, underlining how the market continues to price in operational risk as well as strong underlying demand. 

Rates into the Middle East remain particularly elevated compared with pre-conflict levels, although they have eased from the exceptional highs seen during the height of the disruption as more capacity returns to affected trade lanes. 

AI is replacing eCommerce as the growth engine

For several years, cross-border eCommerce drove much of the growth in global air cargo. Today, semiconductor manufacturing, AI infrastructure and high-value technology products have become the primary drivers of demand.

Strong exports from Taiwan and South Korea continue to generate significant volumes across global air freight networks, helping offset weaker eCommerce activity following changes to low-value import rules in both the US and Europe. Overall, air cargo demand continues to outperform expectations despite these changing market dynamics. 

New regulations are reshaping eCommerce

The European Union has now removed de minimus duty-free treatment for low-value imports, introducing additional customs charges on individual shipments from outside the bloc. The immediate result has been a sharp reduction in direct freighter capacity between China and Europe as eCommerce operators assess the commercial impact and adapt their distribution strategies.

While experience in the US suggests volumes are likely to recover over time, many businesses are expected to shift towards larger consolidated consignments rather than individual parcel movements, changing the mix of cargo moving through international air freight networks. 

While capacity is gradually returning and some pricing pressures have eased, the combination of geopolitical risk, regulatory change and evolving demand means air freight remains a market where agility and forward planning continue to deliver a competitive advantage.

Metro's air freight specialists monitor market developments daily, helping customers secure reliable capacity, identify the most effective routings and respond quickly as conditions evolve.

To discuss your international air freight requirements and build greater resilience into your supply chain, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Metro’s Managing Director.

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