ULD on tarmac

Air freight market tightens ahead of autumn peak

Sep 2, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Air freight enters the traditional peak-season build-up with a finely balanced market, as capacity reductions and resilient pricing create the potential for rapid tightening when Asian export demand accelerates.

The usual late-September surge may still be several weeks away, but UK importers have good reason to start planning now.

Asia–Europe demand softened during August, yet rates have shown little corresponding weakness. Airlines and freighter operators are adjusting capacity as cargo flows change, while higher fuel costs and stronger demand on alternative trade lanes are providing additional support.

That leaves limited spare capacity to absorb the traditional autumn increase – particularly if ocean freight disruption pushes urgent shipments towards air.

Softer demand is not delivering cheaper capacity

Asia Pacific–Europe chargeable weight fell 5% week on week and 14% year on year in week 33, continuing the softer trend evident since late June.

Changing e-commerce flows have contributed to the decline. China–Europe volumes were 8% lower year on year in week 32, while Hong Kong–Europe traffic fell 29%.

Despite that weakness, Asia Pacific–Europe spot rates remained flat in week 33 after rising 1% the previous week. China was particularly resilient, recording a 6% increase despite lower volumes.

The explanation lies partly on the supply side. Asia Pacific capacity contracted 2% in week 33 after declining 1% the previous week, limiting the downward pressure on rates.

Freighter deployment may tighten the market further. Stronger transpacific demand provides operators with an incentive to allocate aircraft towards the US, potentially reducing the capacity available for European cargo as peak season approaches.

China shows how quickly conditions can change

Recent disruption around Shanghai illustrates the vulnerability of available capacity.

Typhoon Dolphin caused more than 1,000 flight cancellations and contributed to an 8% weekly reduction in chargeable weight from Shanghai, while Shanghai–Europe volumes fell 7%.

The immediate disruption has eased, but severe weather and congestion across Chinese ocean gateways remain relevant to the air freight outlook. When container schedules become unreliable, urgent and time-sensitive cargo can quickly switch from ocean to air.

Even a relatively small modal shift can have a disproportionate effect on air freight capacity and pricing.

Golden Week could mark the turning point

The next significant test comes around China's Golden Week.

Factories traditionally accelerate production before the holiday, followed by another increase as operations resume and backlogs clear. October also brings the start of the main pre-Christmas replenishment cycle.

Demand then typically intensifies through November as retailers and e-commerce businesses prepare for Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas.

This year, however, the market enters that period with capacity already responding closely to demand. That could make the transition from today's relatively balanced conditions to a tighter market particularly rapid.

Fuel costs, severe weather, changing freighter deployment and disruption to ocean services provide additional variables.

The opportunity is before the peak

For shippers, softer August volumes could offer a useful planning window rather than a reason to wait for lower rates.

Businesses with visibility of their autumn requirements can secure allocations earlier, consider alternative origins and gateways, and decide which shipments genuinely require premium air services.

Booking ahead of cargo-ready dates will become increasingly important as demand builds, particularly from China and other major Asian export markets. Flexible routing can also provide valuable alternatives when individual gateways or direct services tighten.

The key consideration is not simply today's air freight rate, but the availability of the right capacity when cargo needs to move.

Metro combines extensive Asian origin coverage with global airline relationships, flexible routing and multiple service levels to keep UK supply chains moving when peak-season capacity tightens. 

Share your autumn forecasts with Metro now and we can secure the capacity, routing and service strategy your cargo needs before the peak takes hold.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Metro’s Managing Director.

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India’s sourcing growth creates pressure at both ends of the supply chain

Sep 2, 2026 | , , , , , , , , ,

UK businesses sourcing from India face rising logistics costs before and after production, as more expensive Asian imports combine with tight westbound capacity and strong India–Europe demand.

India continues to strengthen its position as a manufacturing and sourcing alternative for UK and European businesses. But the cost of moving goods through the supply chains supporting that growth is rising.

The pressure starts well before finished products leave India. Many manufacturers rely on machinery, components, chemicals, electronics and other inputs imported from China and neighbouring Asian markets. Freight costs on those inbound routes have risen sharply, increasing the cost base for Indian production.

At the same time, strong exports are tightening India–Europe container capacity and pushing westbound freight costs higher.

For UK buyers, that creates a potential double freight squeeze, with logistics inflation entering the product cost upstream before another layer is added on the journey to Europe.

Asian imports into India become more expensive

The first pressure point is emerging on eastbound services into India.

During August, Shanghai–Nhava Sheva spot rates have almost doubled compared with July, while Shanghai–Chennai rates have increased by around 60%. Costs from other Asian origins, including Singapore, have also risen significantly.

Strong seasonal imports ahead of India's festival period are contributing to demand, while congestion at major Asian hubs has disrupted schedules and tightened available capacity.

For Indian importers, the impact extends beyond freight rates. Changing schedules and less predictable transit times make it harder to manage inbound inventory and maintain reliable production flows.

Higher freight feeds into manufacturing costs

The significance for UK buyers comes from China's deep integration into Indian manufacturing.

Rising transport costs for the raw materials and components feeding Indian factories may initially be absorbed through manufacturer margins. If elevated costs persist, however, some will inevitably feed into production costs and finished-product pricing.

That creates a supply-chain exposure that may be difficult to see when procurement decisions focus primarily on the factory price.

An Indian-made product can already contain significant logistics costs before it enters a container for its journey to the UK.

Strong exports tighten the westbound market

The second pressure point is India–Europe shipping.

Indian containerised exports to Europe reached an estimated 518,000 TEU during the first half of 2026, with stronger-than-expected demand creating a pronounced capacity squeeze.

Westbound rates increased again during August and are approaching levels last experienced around four years ago. Space has become increasingly difficult to secure, with some leading India–Europe services selling out several weeks ahead and additional spot capacity appearing only as carriers release allocations.

The problem is not simply growing demand. Available capacity has struggled to keep pace.

Blank sailings, congestion and rolled cargo at Nhava Sheva and Mundra are reducing effective space, while some capacity has been redirected towards growing Latin American flows using Indian ports for transhipment.

For cargo owners, guaranteed space can therefore command a premium, while less flexible shipments face greater rollover and delay risks.

Look beyond the supplier price

India's manufacturing scale and expanding trade relationships continue to make it an important sourcing market. But the changing freight environment reinforces the need to assess the complete landed cost of sourcing there.

A product assembled using Chinese or other Asian components may now carry substantially higher inbound logistics costs. Moving the finished goods from India to the UK then adds a second layer of freight inflation.

For lower-margin or freight-intensive products in particular, those combined costs could materially affect sourcing economics.

Timing matters too. With strong westbound bookings and constrained capacity, waiting for cheaper freight could leave importers competing for even tighter space.

Businesses can reduce that exposure by understanding upstream supply flows, consolidating shipments where appropriate and planning westbound capacity earlier.

Manage the whole supply chain, not just the final leg

The growing relationship between Chinese inputs, Indian manufacturing and European demand means these movements cannot always be managed effectively in isolation.

Metro can connect the complete Asia–India–UK supply chain, providing visibility from upstream suppliers through Indian production and onward to the UK. 

With extensive Indian based capabilities, global carrier relationships, consolidation and alternative routing options, we can identify where cost and capacity pressures are building and act before they reach your bottom line. EMAIL Andrew Smith, Metro’s Managing Director, to learn about protecting your landed cost from origin to destination.

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Transpacific capacity tightens as Panama restrictions reshape the market

Sep 2, 2026 | , ,

Strong US import demand, reduced vessel capacity and tighter Panama Canal restrictions are keeping transpacific shipping under pressure, with East Coast services facing particular constraints as September approaches.

The transpacific market remains significantly firmer than Asia–Europe, despite signs that the recent rise in spot rates may be levelling off.

After several weeks of increases, Shanghai–New York spot rates slipped 2% in the latest Drewry World Container Index, while Shanghai–Los Angeles remained flat. Freightos recorded a different picture, with East Coast rates rising 3% and West Coast rates 1%. 

The differing indices underline the uncertainty surrounding the market rather than signalling a clear reversal. Rates remain substantially above levels seen three months ago, supported by resilient demand, constrained capacity and growing operational pressure around the Panama Canal.

Peak season demand remains resilient

An unusually early transpacific peak began in late May as US importers accelerated shipments from Asia, initially in response to tariff uncertainty and subsequently supported by continued demand.

China–US volumes fell 12% in the first quarter before surging 22% in Q2, with much of that rebound concentrated in April and May. US import forecasts suggest volumes could remain relatively firm through September before easing in October. 

Capacity has tightened at the same time. August capacity fell 9% month on month on Asia–US East Coast services, while carriers have continued using blank sailings to manage supply.

Congestion at Asian ports following successive typhoons has added further pressure, disrupting schedules and reducing the effective capacity available to shippers.

Panama compounds the East Coast squeeze

The Panama Canal is emerging as another important factor for Asia–US trade.

From early September, lower permitted draughts and fewer daily transits are expected to restrict the amount of cargo vessels can carry through the canal. Analysis of July movements suggests around 45% of Neopanamax transits could be affected by the new draught limits, representing approximately 55% of nominal container capacity using the larger locks. 

Initially, this may mean vessels carrying less cargo rather than carriers withdrawing ships. However, fewer daily transit slots could increase queues and delays while reducing the effective capacity available to East Coast services.

If restrictions become more severe, carriers could divert some Asia–US East Coast services around the Cape of Good Hope. That would add approximately 30% to transit times and tie up vessels for longer, tightening capacity elsewhere in the network.

West Coast gateways could gain cargo

Panama restrictions may also change how importers route US-bound cargo.

Some Asia-origin shipments normally moving through the canal to East Coast gateways could switch to Los Angeles, Long Beach and other West Coast ports, followed by rail or intermodal transport inland.

US intermodal volumes are already increasing as shippers respond to tight truckload capacity and higher road freight costs. Domestic container volumes grew 7.4% year on year during the first half, while international container volumes returned to growth in July. 

Rail networks currently appear to have capacity to absorb additional traffic, although localised pressure is emerging at some ports and railheads. A sustained transfer of transpacific cargo towards the West Coast could increase pressure on terminal appointments, chassis availability and inland connections during September.

Elevated conditions may persist into September

The immediate outlook remains finely balanced.

Strong transpacific demand contrasts sharply with Asia–Europe, where rates have declined for seven consecutive weeks. On the Pacific, however, capacity management, Asian port congestion and Panama restrictions provide continuing support for the market.

The latest pause in rate growth may therefore prove temporary rather than marking the end of peak-season pressure.

For shippers, the more important issue is increasingly where usable capacity will be available. East Coast constraints could favour West Coast routings, but shifting cargo west creates different inland transport requirements and potential congestion risks.

Early booking, additional lead time and the ability to switch gateways, routings and inland modes will be increasingly important as these pressures develop.

NOTICE: Transatlantic carriers push for September rate increases

Carriers are seeking to strengthen westbound transatlantic rates in September, despite softer demand between Europe and North America.

North Europe–US volumes fell 2.6% year on year in July, following a 5.5% decline in June, while Mediterranean–US volumes dropped 1.9%. In response, carriers reduced Europe–North America capacity by almost 9% during August, with a further 9% reduction expected on North Europe services in September.

Several carriers have now introduced peak-season surcharges and general rate increases, alongside higher European inland fuel and intermodal charges. With demand providing limited support, their success will depend on capacity discipline and shipper acceptance.

Metro connects an extensive Asian network with established operations across the United States, giving shippers access to alternative gateways, routings and inland solutions as capacity shifts. 

By considering ocean, port and inland costs together, we can identify the route that protects your supply chain and total landed cost and move with the market when conditions change.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Metro’s Managing Director.

El Nino

El Niño puts temperature-controlled supply chains under new pressure

Sep 2, 2026 | , ,

Climate volatility is becoming an increasingly important cold-chain risk, as extreme temperatures, disrupted transport networks and the developing El Niño pattern threaten the reliability and cost of moving perishable goods.

For food and beverage supply chains, weather has always influenced production and logistics. What is changing is the frequency, severity and interconnected nature of that disruption.

Higher ambient temperatures put refrigeration equipment under greater strain, while floods, storms, drought and infrastructure disruption can extend transit times and increase the risk of temperature excursions. At the same time, changing weather patterns are affecting where food is produced and how it reaches major consumer markets.

El Niño could amplify those pressures through late 2026 and into 2027, just as Europe and North America become increasingly dependent on refrigerated imports from Latin America.

Cold-chain trade is shifting south

The geography of refrigerated container trade is changing. North-south reefer trades are growing faster than traditional east-west flows, with North America and Europe importing 1.49 million TEU of refrigerated goods from Mexico, Central America and South America during 2025 – an 8.9% increase year on year.

South America is becoming increasingly important for products ranging from fresh fruit and vegetables to meat. West Coast South America–North America reefer trade has grown 24% over five years, while Peru has emerged as an increasingly significant source of refrigerated imports.

That growing dependence means disruption to Latin American production or shipping can have consequences thousands of miles away.

El Niño could disrupt harvests and shipping

The developing El Niño pattern creates risks at both ends of the supply chain. Its effects are forecast to peak during the fourth quarter of 2026 and first quarter of 2027, coinciding with the Southern Hemisphere harvest season.

Parts of South America could experience alternating drought and coastal flooding, threatening agricultural production and export flows. Chile, Colombia and Peru are among the markets considered particularly exposed. 

Demand for food does not disappear when production is disrupted. Buyers may instead need to switch sourcing regions, creating sudden changes in trade flows and demand for refrigerated equipment and vessel capacity.

The Panama Canal adds another complication. Falling water levels and tighter transit restrictions can reduce vessel intake and disrupt schedules on an important route connecting Latin American production with Northern Hemisphere markets.

Heat increases the risks in transit

Climate pressure does not end once produce has been harvested. Higher ambient temperatures increase the thermal load on refrigerated containers, warehouses and transport equipment. Refrigeration systems work harder, energy consumption rises and equipment operating close to its limits becomes more vulnerable to reduced efficiency or failure.

The points between temperature-controlled environments become particularly important. Loading, unloading and other handling processes expose cargo to ambient conditions, reducing the margin for delay when outside temperatures rise.

Extreme weather can simultaneously close roads, disrupt ports, interrupt power supplies or delay vessels. For temperature-sensitive food, an extended journey is not simply an inconvenience: it can affect quality, shelf life and ultimately product viability.

Reefer capacity is already under pressure

These risks are developing against an already firm refrigerated freight market. Reefer plug availability remains limited in some locations, alongside supporting equipment such as chassis gensets. Elevated fuel costs and strong overall container demand are also adding pressure.

The composite refrigerated freight index for the third quarter of 2026 is 20% higher than a year earlier. 

For lower-value agricultural commodities, freight inflation can become particularly significant because logistics represents a greater proportion of the product's value.

Weather disruption could tighten the equation further. Changes in harvest volumes, sourcing locations and shipping routes can create sudden demand for reefer equipment in places where it was not originally positioned.

Cold chains need to become more adaptable

As historic weather patterns become less reliable, cold-chain planning increasingly needs to account for conditions outside traditional assumptions.

Real-time temperature monitoring can identify excursions before they compromise cargo, while greater visibility across transport legs helps businesses respond when delays occur.

Contingency routing and alternative sourcing can reduce dependence on individual gateways or production regions. Reviewing refrigeration performance, backup power and thermal protection can also help identify vulnerabilities before extreme conditions expose them.

For importers, the objective is increasingly to understand the entire cold chain – from changing conditions at origin through ocean transport and port handling to final delivery.

The coming El Niño cycle provides a timely reminder that temperature control alone does not create cold-chain resilience. Sourcing, capacity, routing, equipment, monitoring and contingency planning all need to work together.

Protecting temperature-sensitive supply chains

Metro has extensive experience supporting the food and beverage sector and managing complex temperature-controlled supply chains from origin to final delivery. 

Our global network, cold-chain expertise and access to alternative carriers, routes and solutions give customers the flexibility to respond when weather changes production, capacity or transit conditions. 

When product integrity and shelf life leave no room for error, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Metro’s Managing Director, about building a cold chain designed to keep performing when conditions do not.

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