Maersk at FXT 1440x1080 1

Hormuz Is Pulling the Ocean Peak Forward

May 28, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Container shipping normally follows a traditional demand curve, with rates climbing into Chinese New Year, softening through spring, and then building towards a Q3 peak. But not this year.

The crisis around the Strait of Hormuz is introducing an extra layer of cost and volatility, which means that instead of a gentle spring lull, the market is moving into peak‑like conditions earlier, and from a higher baseline.

Analysis of more than a decade of data shows how sharply 2026 has diverged from normal patterns on key trade lanes.

Shanghai–Los Angeles rates typically peak three weeks before Chinese New Year as shippers rush orders out, then fall into a sustained post‑holiday slump. This year, the usual pre‑CNY dip was deeper than normal and was followed by an unusually sharp post‑holiday drop. Instead of then drifting sideways, spot rates turned and climbed steeply, with east and west coast transpacific spot rates well above where they would usually sit at this point in the cycle.

On Asia–North Europe, the deviation from normal seasonality emerged slightly earlier, with a two‑week offset, and post‑CNY declines less severe than on the transpacific. The premium over “normal” seasonal levels initially surged, then faded, only to re‑emerge as rates climbed again and remain elevated. The Mediterranean trade has swung even more sharply, with early premiums peaking, dropping back to zero and then returning close to the highest levels.

Analysts are cautious about attributing every dollar of these increases to Hormuz, acknowledging that localised supply‑and‑demand factors also play a role. But the break from normal seasonality coincides closely with the crisis, and there is now a clear correlation between Gulf risk and an extra layer of cost in spot pricing.

Early peak, fuel pressure and front‑loading

Since carriers began diverting away from the Red Sea, importers have tended to order earlier to make sure boxes arrive before China’s Golden Week at the start of October. With longer transit times, containers loaded after mid‑October may not reach destination in time for the main holiday season, so some of the traditional late‑Q3 peak has already been brought forward into late Q2 and early Q3 in recent years.

In 2024, Asia–Europe rates started climbing in early May and peaked by mid‑July. In 2025, after seeing that the previous year’s May start was probably earlier than necessary, prices picked up in early June and again peaked in mid‑July. This year, some carriers are already reporting an uptick in demand on Asia–North Europe and Asia–Med, with daily prices already reacting to mid‑May general rate increase attempts and further rate hikes announced for June.

On top of that, bunker costs jumped after the latest Middle East escalation at the end of February. Emergency fuel surcharges quickly appeared on spot shipments, but contract cargo is tied to quarterly bunker adjustment factors. That has created a powerful timing incentive, with exceptionally strong shipper demand through late May and into June from larger cargo owners looking to move as much as possible before 1 July, when the next quarterly BAF reset will automatically push up contract freight rates.

Capacity constraints and blankings

Higher oil prices and longer routes via the Cape or alternative legs around the region have increased bunker and operating costs and tied up a large slice of global container capacity in longer voyage cycles.

At the same time, the supply side is tight. Few new ships are being delivered directly into the main Asia–Europe and transpacific loops in the near term, keeping the market “short of ships” and charter rates firm. Alliance partners are also using blanked sailings more actively. Instead of restricting blankings to Chinese New Year and Golden Week, carriers are using blankings as a flexible tool to match capacity to demand and support higher rate levels.

New alliance structures and more tactical service adjustments allow carriers to shift capacity more quickly between trades. For shippers, that can translate into sudden changes in available space and short‑notice rate moves, even outside the traditional peak window.

What this means for the 2026 ocean peak

Taken together, these factors are pulling peak‑season conditions forward and widening the window of risk:

  • Rates on key east–west trades are already running several hundred dollars per 40ft above where they would normally be for this stage in the year, even before the usual late‑Q3 build‑up.
  • Bookings and volumes on Asia–Europe trades are strengthening earlier, as shippers bring orders forward to secure space, get ahead of bunker‑linked increases on 1 July and hedge against further Gulf‑related shocks.
  • With limited new capacity entering the market, more dynamic blanking strategies and ongoing uncertainty around Hormuz and the wider Middle East, the system has less slack to absorb sudden volume surges later in the year.

For UK importers, the practical message is that the “traditional” Q3 ocean peak is being replaced by a longer, more uncertain high‑risk period, starting in late spring and running through to the autumn. 

Some of the early‑season rate increases may not fully stick, but geopolitical risk and fuel cost pressure are now baked into the market rather than being a passing anomaly. 

Through proactive capacity planning and contingency-focused supply chain support, Metro helps customers respond effectively to disruption, changing demand patterns and peak season uncertainty. EMAIL Managing Director, Andrew Smith, to learn more.

China flag and ship

China’s New 2026 Supply Chain Laws: What You Need to Know

May 27, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

China is rewiring the legal framework around its ports and supply chains and that matters for every UK shipper moving goods to, from or via China. 

Two new sets of rules in 2026 change who controls disputes, how far you can probe your supply chain, and how China may respond to Western sanctions and due‑diligence demands.

Below we set out what’s changing and what Metro’s customers should be thinking about.

New maritime law puts China’s courts in the driving seat

From 1 May 2026, China’s revised Maritime Code gives Chinese law a much stronger role in contracts of carriage linked to Chinese ports. Where the port of loading or discharge is in China, Chinese courts can apply Chapter IV of the Code to carriage contracts even if the bill of lading or sea freight agreement points to English law.

Law firm HFW has called this a “substantive change”, noting that “chapter four of the Chinese Maritime Code will apply to a contract of carriage regardless of whether or not another law has been incorporated or chosen by the parties”. In effect, if governing‑law and jurisdiction clauses are unclear, Chinese courts now have more room to assert jurisdiction over disputes involving cargo moving through their ports.

Trading agreements often choose English law and London arbitration, while the carrier’s bill of lading may point a different way. The question is whether, in a dispute, a Chinese court will treat the bill of lading as the main contract and apply Chinese law, despite what the trade agreement says.

Some industry experts see this as part of a broader strategic move, to encourage a switch from FOB to CIF terms so that Chinese exporters control freight, insurance and crucially litigation on home turf.

However, any FOB to CIF shift is commercial, not legal, and Incoterms are an international standard which means that FOB remains fully available for China–UK trade, where the buyer wants to control the main–carriage contract and freight costs.

So, China’s legal changes don’t cancel FOB, and UK buyers can still insist on FOB terms and book their own freight, provided the contracts and practical behaviour match that intention.

Supply chain security rules: due diligence under pressure

Alongside the maritime reforms, China has introduced its first comprehensive Regulations on Industrial and Supply Chain Security, effective 31 March 2026. These rules treat supply chains as part of national security rather than a purely commercial matter, bringing them under the oversight of economic, security and cyber authorities.

The most sensitive provision for Western companies is Article 13, which restricts “information gathering activities” related to industrial and supply chains where these are found to breach Chinese law. The language is broad and undefined, creating uncertainty about whether standard due‑diligence activities, which can include supplier questionnaires, ESG audits, human‑rights assessments or on‑site inspections, could fall within the scope.

This sits uneasily alongside emerging Western rules such as the EU Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive and US forced‑labour legislation, which expect companies to map supply chains and scrutinise suppliers in detail. Legal commentators warn that “the new law creates a direct and unresolved conflict between Chinese law and Western due diligence obligations”, with companies potentially facing legal risk in China for work they are required to do under EU or US law.

The regulations also give authorities wide powers to respond to perceived threats to supply‑chain stability. Investigations can target foreign organisations and individuals where there is a “risk or threat” of harm, not just proven damage, and can lead to restrictions on trade, investment and cooperation in China, along with travel or work limits for individuals.

Counter‑measures against foreign sanctions

A companion set of rules – the Regulations on Countering Foreign Improper/Unjustifiable Extraterritorial Jurisdiction, in force from early April – strengthens China’s ability to push back against foreign sanctions, export controls and data‑disclosure demands applied extraterritorially.

These sit alongside the Anti‑Foreign Sanctions Law, blocking rules and the “unreliable entities” regime, creating what one firm describes as an “integrated counter‑sanctions system”. Authorities can investigate and penalise organisations and individuals who implement or even “promote” foreign measures seen as discriminatory towards China, with tools ranging from import and export restrictions to asset seizures and visa bans.

This framework has emerged against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tension, including Western tariffs and probes into China’s exports, secondary‑sanctions risks around Iran and disputes over strategic assets like the Panama Canal.

What shippers should do

None of this means that trading with China will suddenly stop or that every UK shipper is about to be investigated. But the risk environment has clearly changed, and it is worth taking some practical steps:

  • Check bills of lading, trade agreements and framework contracts to see where Chinese ports are involved, what law and jurisdiction are specified.
    Strengthen English‑law and arbitration provisions and clarify that higher‑tier agreements take precedence.
  • Talk to your insurers about how the revised Maritime Code might affect liability, claims handling and cover for China‑linked moves.
    Consider obtaining Chinese‑law input on key routes or contracts where your exposure is greatest.
  • Map which parts of your ESG and human‑rights due diligence involve Chinese suppliers or sites.
  • For higher‑risk work, such as auditing sensitive regions or investigations linked to sanctions, seek specialist advice on how to stay compliant with both Western obligations and Chinese restrictions.
  • Be mindful of public statements about “decoupling from China” or “boycotting” particular regions. These may be read as aligning with foreign measures and may increase regulatory attention in China.
  • Align messaging between compliance, procurement and communications so that necessary changes to your supply chain are framed around resilience, quality and legal compliance, not politics.

For Metro’s customers, the key takeaway is that China is now using law as an active tool of supply‑chain strategy. Understanding how these new rules work, and adjusting contracts, due‑diligence programmes and communication strategies accordingly, will help keep goods moving while managing a more complex risk landscape.

If you have questions or concerns about any of the developments outlined here EMAIL our Managing Director, Andrew Smith.

EU UK negotiations 2

UK–EU reset could ease border friction for importers and exporters

May 13, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

On 13 May 2026, the King's Speech set out the government's plans for the next Parliamentary session, including efforts to reset post-Brexit relations, forge closer economic ties with the EU and reduce unnecessary barriers to trade.

The reset is not a return to the single market or customs union. Instead, it is being presented as a targeted attempt to stabilise the trading relationship through closer alignment in specific areas where the government believes reduced friction could support growth, cut costs and improve supply chain efficiency. 

SPS alignment could simplify GB–EU border processes

The government intends to pass legislation by the end of 2026 to enable an SPS agreement with the EU to take effect by mid-2027. The agreement would cover animal and plant health, food safety and related agri-food rules, with the UK aligning to relevant EU legislation in order to ease border procedures.

SPS controls have been among the most disruptive post-Brexit trade barriers, creating additional documentation, inspection, certification and timing challenges at the GB–EU border.

A veterinary-style agreement could reduce the need for some routine checks and help make border movements more predictable. For exporters, this may improve access into EU markets. For importers, it could reduce delays, compliance costs and uncertainty when bringing goods into Great Britain.

Emissions trading alignment could reshape supply chain costs

Alongside the SPS agreement, the government is also negotiating closer alignment between the UK and EU emissions trading schemes (ETS), designed to reduce regulatory divergence and support longer-term industrial and energy cooperation. 

For businesses involved in manufacturing, energy-intensive production, transport and international trade, the implications could extend well beyond environmental policy.

A linked or more closely aligned ETS framework could help reduce friction for exporters trading into Europe, particularly as the EU continues expanding carbon-related trade measures and compliance requirements. It may also provide greater long-term certainty for businesses operating across both UK and EU markets.

Dynamic alignment brings certainty but also new compliance considerations

The proposed reset relies on dynamic alignment in selected areas, meaning UK rules would keep pace with relevant EU law as it evolves. This is central to the government’s ambition to reduce border friction, because smoother trade processes depend on both sides recognising equivalent standards.

For logistics and supply chain teams, this could provide greater medium-term certainty over the regulatory framework affecting GB–EU trade. However, it also means businesses will need to monitor changes in EU rules that may flow into UK requirements over time.

The wider political debate remains active. Critics argue that dynamic alignment could reduce UK regulatory flexibility, while others want the government to go further and pursue a customs union. 

What this means for UK traders

The direction of travel may point toward a less burdensome GB–EU trading environment, but the more realistic reading is:

  • Customs declarations are not going away simply because an SPS deal is agreed.
  • Rules of origin issues are not being removed by the reset as described in this briefing.
  • What may improve is the regulatory layer sitting on top of customs processes for certain categories of goods, especially agri-food.

That distinction matters, because a truck can still need customs processing even if SPS checks become lighter or less frequent.

So the likely benefit is not “no border”, but a border with fewer SPS-related interruptions, fewer compliance mismatches and a lower chance that a shipment is delayed because UK and EU technical rules have drifted apart.

Importers and exporters should now review where SPS controls, border checks, certification or documentary requirements are creating cost, delay or uncertainty in their supply chains. They should also assess whether current customs and compliance processes are flexible enough to adapt as the UK–EU framework develops.

As the UK–EU reset develops, Metro is helping customers assess how changing customs procedures, SPS requirements and evolving regulatory alignment could affect their supply chains, transit times and compliance obligations. 

Through integrated freight forwarding, customs support and cross-border logistics expertise, Metro helps businesses prepare for changing GB–EU trade conditions and maintain efficient cargo flow across European supply chains.

EMAIL Managing Director, Andrew Smith, today to learn more.

HKG port

Peak season uncertainty grows as shippers front-load inventory and freight demand diverges

May 13, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Container shipping markets appear to be entering an earlier and increasingly fragmented peak season, as geopolitical disruption, rising fuel costs and tighter carrier capacity management reshape freight demand across major trade lanes.

Bookings on several east-west corridors strengthened earlier than normal during May, with carriers maintaining upward pressure on rates as many importers accelerate shipments ahead of the traditional third-quarter peak season period.

Spot rates on Asia–US west coast services have continued to outperform other major trades, rising around 4% week on week and remaining significantly above levels seen before the escalation of Middle East disruption. Asia–Europe pricing has also strengthened modestly, with rates to North Europe and the Mediterranean increasing as carriers attempt to restore margins through capacity reductions and surcharge increases.

However, broader market conditions remain difficult to interpret. What appears to be an early peak season may ultimately reflect precautionary inventory positioning and front-loading activity rather than sustained end-user demand growth.

Front-loading and disruption are reshaping traditional shipping patterns

A growing number of importers are moving cargo earlier amid concerns that operational disruption, congestion and capacity shortages could intensify later in the year.

The continuing closure and instability surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is adding further pressure to global freight markets, with around 1.5% of global shipping capacity estimated to be affected directly by disruption linked to the region.

At the same time, higher oil prices are increasing carrier operating costs across both ocean and airfreight markets, while blank sailings are continuing to tighten effective capacity on key trades.

Capacity reductions on Asia–Europe services have become increasingly aggressive in recent weeks, with shipping lines reducing available space to North Europe and the Mediterranean while also introducing additional blank sailings beyond traditional holiday periods.

The result is a more volatile market where shipment rollovers, reduced allocations and short-notice schedule changes are becoming increasingly common, even where bookings are technically available.

On transpacific trades, carriers have also maintained relatively firm control over available capacity following post-Lunar New Year service adjustments, helping sustain pricing despite ongoing uncertainty around underlying consumer demand.

Additional surcharges introduced on Asia–US services suggest carriers expect demand to remain comparatively elevated through the summer period.

Many importers remain cautious about underlying demand, particularly in Europe where economic conditions remain comparatively weak and pressure on household spending continues to affect purchasing behaviour.

This creates the possibility that some businesses could be holding elevated inventory levels later in the year, potentially resulting in a delayed, compressed or weaker traditional peak season across certain sectors.

Metro survey highlights cautious but stable demand expectations

Early findings from Metro’s ongoing customer survey reflect this more balanced outlook.

Around 38% of respondents currently expect freight volumes to remain broadly stable over the next 12 months, while a similar percentage expect volumes to increase slightly. Less than 1/8 anticipate a significant decrease, while none expect a significant increase in activity.

The findings suggest that many businesses are not currently anticipating a dramatic peak season surge, but instead expect relatively stable trading conditions alongside continued disruption and cost pressure.

At the same time, respondents indicate that ongoing instability across global supply chains is continuing to influence inventory planning, shipping schedules and freight costs.

The divergence between Asia–US west coast and Asia–Europe markets highlights how uneven global freight conditions have become. Rather than moving in a single direction, pricing and demand are increasingly being shaped by regional economic performance, inventory strategies and trade lane-specific operational risks.

Sea–air solutions gaining attention as airfreight costs surge

The disruption is also influencing modal shift decisions.

With the average airfreight rate out of Asia-Pacific over 40% higher than last year shippers are increasingly exploring sea–air solutions to balance cost, speed and reliability.

Airfreight rates have risen sharply as fuel surcharges, restricted airspace and tighter capacity continue to affect global networks. At the same time, ongoing Red Sea diversions are keeping some ocean transit times above 50 days on Asia–Europe services.

For many retail, fashion, e-commerce and consumer goods shippers, sea–air services are becoming an increasingly valuable tactical solution where traditional airfreight costs are difficult to absorb but ocean transit times remain commercially challenging.

For shippers, the key challenge may now be timing. If front-loading activity continues through the early summer period, demand on some corridors could remain firmer for longer than normally expected. However, weaker consumer demand and elevated inventory levels could also limit the scale of any traditional late summer or autumn rebound.

Metro’s survey remains open, and businesses are encouraged to share their expectations and experiences, together with insights into current market conditions, operational pressures and changing supply chain requirements. The survey also provides an opportunity for customers to share feedback on Metro’s performance and highlight where additional support or solutions could help strengthen supply chain operations. 

GO TO THE 2 MINUTE SURVEY

Through proactive capacity planning, multimodal air, sea and sea-air routing options and contingency-focused supply chain support, Metro helps customers respond more effectively to disruption, changing demand patterns and ongoing peak season uncertainty. EMAIL Managing Director, Andrew Smith, to learn more.

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