container ship and naval escort

Iran/US ceasefires bring relief, but supply chains still face a long road back

Jun 24, 2026 | , , , ,

The latest ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, alongside the broader US/Iran framework aimed at ending months of regional conflict, has improved sentiment across energy and freight markets. 

Oil prices have retreated, financial markets have stabilised and hopes are growing that the Strait of Hormuz could gradually reopen to normal commercial traffic. Yet for supply chains, the crisis is entering a recovery phase rather than reaching a conclusion.

While diplomats work to turn temporary agreements into lasting settlements, the operational reality remains far more complicated. Shipping lines, insurers and logistics providers are preparing for a lengthy and uneven normalisation process rather than a swift return to pre-crisis conditions.

Diplomacy has moved faster than logistics

The new ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah removes one of the biggest threats to wider regional stability and supports the broader US-Iran agreement. However, restoring confidence across global transport networks will take far longer than negotiating peace terms.

Although limited vessel movements have resumed, hundreds of ships remain affected by months of disruption and maritime authorities continue to treat the Strait of Hormuz with caution. Mine clearance operations, traffic management measures and elevated insurance requirements mean normal trading conditions remain some way off. Even where vessels are moving, transit remains slower and more tightly controlled than before the conflict.

Gulf supply chains face months of adjustment

Importers and exporters serving the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain should not expect an immediate return to normal operations.

Regional carriers, feeder operators and overland transport providers have spent months redesigning networks around restrictions and delays. As cargo begins flowing again, ports and transhipment hubs are likely to experience congestion as stranded containers and equipment gradually work their way through the system.

Schedule reliability will improve, but only progressively. Backlogs accumulated over several months cannot be unwound in a matter of weeks, and businesses serving Gulf markets should continue planning for volatility through the summer.

Energy costs remain a major risk

Even though oil prices have fallen on hopes that hostilities are easing, energy markets remain highly sensitive.

Around one-fifth of global oil supply normally moves through the Strait of Hormuz. Any delays to reopening, security incidents or setbacks in ceasefire negotiations could quickly reverse recent gains.

Bunker fuel prices remain well above pre-crisis levels, while jet fuel and diesel markets continue to reflect constrained supply and cautious inventories. Fuel costs remain one of the largest components of transport pricing, meaning surcharges and cost pressures are unlikely to disappear quickly.

Airlines are closely monitoring fuel costs as they finalise winter schedules. Higher operating costs could place further pressure on passenger capacity, with consequences for belly-hold airfreight space.

Road freight operators face similar concerns. Diesel prices remain vulnerable to energy market swings, while ongoing uncertainty continues to influence transport costs across Europe and Asia.

Meanwhile, supply chains that have adapted to months of disruption are unlikely to reverse course overnight. Alternative routings, additional inventories and diversified sourcing strategies developed during the crisis are likely to remain part of many companies' long-term risk management plans.

Stability may return, but gradually

The ceasefires between Israel and Hezbollah and the wider US-Iran framework represent meaningful progress, despite the postponement of direct talks between the US and Iran. 

However, diplomacy has moved faster than physical supply chains.

Shipping schedules, equipment availability, insurance markets and energy supplies all require time to normalise. The coming months are likely to bring gradual improvement rather than an immediate reset.

Businesses that continue to secure capacity early, maintain inventory visibility and build flexibility into their transport strategies will be best positioned to complete the transition from crisis management to recovery.

Metro's teams are monitoring developments across ocean, air and road markets in real time. As conditions evolve, we help customers stay ahead of disruption, secure capacity and adapt quickly to changing circumstances. 

In volatile markets, resilience comes not from reacting faster than everyone else, but from being prepared before disruption arrives. EMAIL our Managing Director, Andrew Smith to learn more.

Jebel Ali

Middle East disruption continues

Jun 9, 2026 | , , , ,

The ongoing conflict across the Middle East continues to exert major pressure on global supply chains, with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz creating sustained disruption across ocean freight, air cargo, energy markets and regional transport networks.

Conditions across the region remain highly constrained as carriers, ports, airlines and logistics providers continue adapting to a freight environment shaped by rerouting, congestion, fuel volatility and severe operational bottlenecks.

The consequences are now being felt far beyond the Gulf itself, with delays, higher transport costs and capacity disruption rippling across Asia-Europe and intra-Asia supply chains.

Strait of Hormuz disruption keeps energy and shipping markets under pressure

The Strait of Hormuz remains the single most critical pressure point within the global logistics system.

With the waterway effectively closed to normal commercial operations and heavily impacted by military activity, shipping lines, tanker operators and insurers continue facing severe operational and financial challenges.

Insurance premiums remain exceptionally elevated, while tanker movements through the region are heavily restricted, delayed or rerouted entirely. The result is ongoing disruption to global energy flows and sustained volatility across bunker fuel, jet fuel and wider transport costs.

Ocean carriers continue absorbing longer routings, unpredictable schedules and significant operational inefficiencies, while air cargo operators are also facing increased costs and reduced network flexibility linked to airspace restrictions and fuel price volatility.

Regional port congestion spreads across alternative gateways

As carriers avoid the highest-risk areas, cargo flows are being redirected through alternative regional hubs, creating secondary congestion across ports outside the direct conflict zone.

Jebel Ali has seen vessel calls fall sharply as operators reduce exposure to the Gulf, while alternative hubs including Salalah, Colombo, Jeddah and Khor Fakkan are now experiencing growing transhipment pressure and vessel bunching.

At India’s Nhava Sheva (JNPA) port, unexpected surges in Middle East transhipment cargo have created substantial congestion, with vessel waiting times extending to several days and terminal operations struggling under rising yard density and inland transport pressure.

Truck queues, delayed container evacuation, rollover cargo and missed vessel connections are all becoming more common as ports attempt to absorb volumes displaced from traditional Gulf routings.

Red Sea land-bridge options come under strain

The traditional Red Sea land-bridge model into the Gulf is also becoming increasingly difficult to operate.

Congestion linked to diverted cargo volumes, seasonal Hajj-related demand and overloaded customs and port administration systems has significantly reduced operational reliability through Jeddah and other Red Sea gateways.

Carriers including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have now suspended certain cross-border carrier haulage solutions via Jeddah for Upper Gulf cargoes, instead shifting traffic towards Arabian Sea gateways including Salalah, Khor Fakkan and Sharjah.

Containers previously routed through Saudi Arabian land-bridge solutions are increasingly being transhipped through alternative ports before moving inland or reconnecting to feeder services into Gulf destinations.

While these workarounds help maintain cargo flow, they also introduce additional handling, longer transit times and greater operational complexity.

What this means for supply chains

The Middle East situation is becoming a structural supply chain challenge affecting routing decisions, carrier networks, fuel pricing, inventory planning and transport reliability across multiple regions.

Importers and exporters are now operating in an environment where flexibility, contingency planning and proactive routing management have become essential.

Alternative gateway strategies, inland transport options and earlier booking windows are all becoming increasingly important as traditional network assumptions continue to break down.

Metro helps customers overcome volatile market conditions through flexible routing strategies, multimodal transport solutions and proactive supply chain management across Asia, Europe and the Middle East.

To discuss your supply chain planning, routing options or contingency strategies, EMAIL Managing Director Andrew Smith.

Gulf of Oman 1440x1080 1

Gulf Tensions Redefining Asia–Europe Shipping

May 28, 2026 | , , , , ,

Diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled, constraining one of the world’s most important energy corridors and prolonging the biggest disruption to global oil supply in decades. 

Public statements from Tehran suggest Hormuz will only fully reopen once the conflict with the US and Israel is resolved, and even then Iran intends to retain a significant degree of control over traffic through the waterway.

Washington, for its part, is using an oil‑export blockade and secondary sanctions to squeeze Iran’s revenues and push it towards a ceasefire and broader deal. That has created a stand‑off, with Iran using threats to shipping and de facto control of Hormuz as leverage, while the US is using control of Iran’s oil exports and financial channels as its own bargaining chip. 

Pakistan has tried to mediate between Washington and Tehran, hosting talks and shuttling ideas between the two sides, but recent rounds have produced little progress. Iran wants an end to the blockade and a clear framework for Hormuz governance before tackling nuclear issues, while the US wants concrete nuclear concessions up front, with maritime and sanctions relief later. That gap, combined with sporadic flare‑ups around the Gulf, is why many analysts now see a prolonged stand‑off or even a return to open conflict as real possibilities.

Oil and fuel markets stay tight

This deadlock is feeding directly into energy markets. Roughly a fifth to a quarter of global seaborne oil normally move through Hormuz, so any sustained disruption has an outsized effect on supply and sentiment. Since the start of the war, benchmark crude prices have jumped by around 50%.

Even partial diversions and intermittent tanker flows are enough to keep physical crude markets tight and refinery margins elevated. Refineries in Europe, the US and West Africa have shifted more output into aviation and marine fuels, but feedstock uncertainty and higher risk premiums are feeding through into bunker and jet prices. For carriers, that means bunker adjustment factors, emergency fuel surcharges and war‑risk charges are now key drivers of end‑user freight rates across ocean and air.

How this feeds into peak season

Higher oil and fuel prices ripple into every mode, and the timing of bunker adjustments now interacts directly with the traditional peak‑season calendar.

Historically, Asia–Europe peak season demand has built from late June through to China’s Golden Week in early October. In the last two years, that pattern was already starting earlier as shippers brought orders forward to deal with Red Sea diversions and longer voyage times. In 2024, Asia–Europe rates began climbing in early May and peaked by mid‑July; in 2025 the climb started in early June, again topping out around mid‑July.

This year, Hormuz‑linked fuel volatility adds another layer. Bunker costs spiked after the latest escalation at the end of February, prompting emergency surcharges on spot cargo and triggering higher quarterly bunker adjustment factors for contracts from 1 July. Many large shippers are now accelerating Asia–Europe shipments through May and June to move as much volume as possible before that quarterly BAF reset takes effect.

The result is a front‑loaded peak, with exceptionally strong demand in late May and June, driven by restocking needs and attempts to get ahead of fuel‑linked rate hikes. That demand sits on top of the disruption “premium” already visible in spot rates on key east–west trades, where prices are running several hundred dollars per 40ft above where seasonal patterns would normally put them.

For UK shippers, the geopolitical headlines around Hormuz translate into three practical realities:

  • Fuel remains a structural driver of freight costs. Even if crude prices ease from day‑to‑day, bunker and jet markets are likely to stay tight and volatile as long as Hormuz is contested.
  • Timing matters more than usual. Quarterly bunker adjustment dates and carriers’ general rate increase cycles are now key milestones; moving cargo just before a BAF reset can materially change landed cost.
  • Peak season is starting earlier and lasting longer. Instead of a neat late‑Q3 surge, shippers face a longer high‑risk period running from late spring into the autumn, with rate spikes tied as much to fuel and conflict as to consumer demand.

Against that backdrop, we recommend that shippers should plan around higher and more volatile transport costs, rather than hoping for a quick return to pre‑crisis norms. Building in more lead time, watching bunker‑linked surcharges closely, and spreading volume across services and carriers can all help reduce the risk of being caught out by the next twist in Hormuz diplomacy.

EMAIL Managing Director, Andrew Smith, today to secure capacity, protect transit times and keep your supply chain moving in a rapidly changing environment.

ships at anchor

Middle East Conflict Is Rewriting the Airfreight Peak

May 28, 2026 | , , , , , ,

Airfreight has always played a dual role in supply chains, providing a reliable core mode for some flows and a pressure‑relief valve when ocean networks clog up. 

The current Middle East crisis has upended that safety‑valve function; because instead of a short, sharp bottleneck, the market has shifted into a higher‑cost, more volatile place, that is already reshaping the 2026 peak season.

The initial fear was that conflict around the Gulf would trigger a sudden collapse in air capacity and an uncontrollable spike in jet fuel costs. That fearful initial phase has now passed, but pricing has not returned to pre‑crisis norms. Freight indices show global air rates holding well above early‑2026 levels, with some Asia–Europe spot rates doubling by April and still sitting nearly 75% above pre-war levels.

Fuel surcharges are no longer climbing week by week, but they remain dramatically higher than at the start of the year. The air cargo market is not spiralling upward, but it has clearly found a new, elevated pricing floor.

Capacity returns, but on new terms

Freighter lift grew around 3% month‑on‑month in April, reversing earlier declines, although week‑on‑week growth has slowed as airlines add capacity cautiously. Gulf carriers have been rebuilding their schedules, with strong month‑on‑month growth on Asia–Middle East and Europe–Middle East lanes, and major integrators have restored intercontinental flights into Bahrain, Dubai and other Gulf hubs from Europe and Asia.

Regional airspace is open again, albeit with corridors, pre‑approvals and routing constraints. Network operators have re‑established connections that link Europe, Asia and Africa through the Middle East, and are gradually extending services deeper into the region. Backup hubs in places such as Riyadh and Muscat remain in use while the security picture stabilises, but some carriers have also found alternative “mid‑points” in India and South‑East Asia to recover Asia–Europe capacity.

Other operators remain more cautious. Some European freighter airlines are still avoiding most Middle East stops, citing airspace and security concerns, and are waiting on further guidance from aviation security authorities before fully reopening networks. Major Asian carriers have delayed the resumption of certain passenger and freighter services into Riyadh and Dubai, even as they add freighter capacity into Bangkok, Vietnam and other South‑East Asian gateways.

Recent rate data shows some easing out of major Asian hubs and on Europe–US and Europe–Gulf routes, but pricing remains historically high. Outbound Heathrow rates, for example, are still more than 40% above last year. Refineries in Europe, the US and West Africa have shifted output towards aviation fuel, airlines have rerouted networks and trimmed weaker services, and capacity is being deployed with unusual discipline. Together, these factors are preventing a rapid collapse in pricing.

What this means for the “traditional” air peak

In a normal year, shippers would expect a relatively quiet summer followed by a steady build‑up into the late‑Q3/Q4 peak. Middle East disruption has scrambled that pattern in three important ways:

  • The market has already experienced “mini peaks” in Q2, as conflict‑related diversions and fuel shocks pushed rates to levels normally associated with peak season.
  • With airspace constraints, elevated fuel costs and tight capacity discipline, the system has less slack than usual. The ability to “pivot to air” from ocean at short notice is weaker.
  • Geopolitical risk now appears to be permanently repriced into airfreight. Even if the Gulf situation stabilises, fuel surcharges and base rates are likely to remain volatile, and the industry is planning around that assumption with more frequent surcharge adjustments.

For UK shippers, the implication is that 2026’s airfreight peak is less about one clear season and more about a longer period of heightened risk, with short, unpredictable demand spikes layered onto an already expensive base. Treating the whole second half of the year as potentially “peak‑like”, budgeting for higher air costs, and pre‑booking critical flows on key lanes will be essential to avoid being caught out.

Metro works closely with airlines and partners to secure capacity, identify alternative routings and maintain reliability in a disrupted market. If your supply chain depends on airfreight, EMAIL our Managing Director, Andrew Smith, to protect space, manage cost exposure and keep your cargo moving.

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