Airfreight markets have undergone a prolonged period of elevated pricing since the start of Middle East hostilities and despite softer demand in recent weeks spot rates have continued to rise sharply.
Global spot rate indices are up by more than 35% year on year and have increased by over 40% since the onset of the Middle East crisis, highlighting the extent to which supply-side disruption, rather than demand, has been driving the market.
This reflects a structural shift, where fuel availability, routing complexity and network disruption are now setting the baseline for pricing.
Fuel supply constraints begin to tighten capacity further
The next phase of disruption is already emerging. The UK has taken delivery of the final shipments of jet fuel that transited the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict escalated, meaning supply constraints are now expected to intensify.
Jet fuel availability is becoming a defining factor in airline operations, with rising costs and limited supply forcing carriers to reassess schedules. Flight cancellations have already begun, and reinstating these services is not straightforward. Aircraft, crew availability, regulatory approvals and network coordination all create barriers to a rapid return of capacity.
As a result, even where demand softens, supply is tightening again, reinforcing upward pressure on rates.
Capacity recovery remains uneven and fragile
While global capacity has recovered from the initial shock, when supply fell by around 20% at the start of the crisis, it remains below previous levels and unevenly distributed.
Capacity from Middle East and South Asia origins is still significantly constrained, with reductions of around 20% year on year, limiting the availability of key transit routes. At the same time, global demand has softened, falling by approximately 8% year on year, but this has not yet translated into lower pricing.
This imbalance highlights a key market dynamic: capacity is returning, but not necessarily where it is needed, and operational constraints continue to limit how effectively it can be deployed.
Trade lane volatility reflects shifting network priorities
Rate movements are now highly variable by trade lane, reflecting how airlines are repositioning capacity.
From some origins, rates have increased by more than 50% year on year, while others have seen more moderate gains or even short-term declines. European outbound routes remain mixed, with strength on certain long-haul lanes offset by weaker demand elsewhere.
At the same time, airlines are redeploying aircraft to higher-yield routes rather than simply rebuilding pre-conflict networks, creating further imbalance across global capacity.
Recovery will take time, even under stable conditions
Even if conditions stabilise, a rapid return to normal is unlikely.
Airlines will be cautious about reinstating routes through the Middle East, given the fragility of the ceasefire and ongoing geopolitical risk. Airspace restrictions, insurance considerations and operational planning will all slow the recovery process.
Passenger networks, vital for critical belly-hold capacity, may also take time to rebuild, as demand for travel into the region recovers gradually. This will further constrain available cargo capacity.
Even with weaker volumes in some regions, rates are holding firm or increasing, and any downward correction is likely to be gradual rather than immediate.
Secure capacity in a constrained market
With fuel supply tightening, capacity uneven and recovery uncertain, airfreight is entering a period where access and planning matter more than ever.
Metro works closely with airlines and partners to secure capacity, identify alternative routings and maintain reliability in a disrupted market. If your supply chain depends on airfreight, EMAIL our Managing Director, Andrew Smith, to protect space, manage cost exposure and keep your cargo moving.
