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H1 2025: Six Developments Reshaping Global Trade

The first half of 2025 has been one of the most turbulent periods for supply chains in recent memory. From renewed tariff wars to fresh geopolitical flashpoints, logistics professionals have had to contend with a constantly shifting landscape.

At the same time, structural challenges around skills, safety, and sustainability have continued to grow. Here we review six developments that defined H1 2025.

1. Tariffs return to the fore
The pause in US tariff escalation ended in August, with the White House reintroducing “reciprocal” tariffs that apply baseline duties of 10% to all countries and higher rates of 10–41% depending on origin. The UK sit at the low end, while Syria faces the steepest levels. Brazil has been singled out further, hit by an additional 40% levy. Canada also saw tariffs raised from 25% to 35% on certain goods, justified by Washington’s claim that Ottawa has not done enough to curb fentanyl flows.

The executive order applies from 7 August 2025, with a grace period allowing cargo already loaded onto vessels before that date to arrive until 5 October 2025. To add complexity, US Customs will also impose new fees on Chinese-built or operated vessels from 14 October, potentially forcing alliances such as the Ocean Alliance into costly fleet reshuffles. Carriers are already working through how to redeploy capacity to avoid penalties, with COSCO and OOCL particularly exposed.

2. New shipping alliances reshape networks
The recomposition of global shipping alliances in Q1 has reshaped carrier strategies. The launch of the Gemini Cooperation between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd marked one of the most significant realignments in recent years, focused on achieving 90%+ schedule reliability. Shippers are already seeing more dependable services, but questions remain about whether premium pricing will follow.

Other alliances, particularly Ocean and THE Alliance (now Premier Alliance), are recalibrating networks, with competition sharpening across Asia–Europe and transpacific trades. For shippers, the alliance changes mean rethinking service contracts and adapting to new network structures that could endure for much of the decade.

3. Houthi attacks deepen Red Sea crisis
The Red Sea crisis, triggered by Houthi rebel attacks, has now stretched on for nearly two years. In July 2025 the threat escalated further with the sinking of the Magic Seas, a Greek-operated vessel targeted for its links to companies calling at Israeli ports. Analysis suggests that one in six vessels globally could now be considered threatened under the Houthis’ broad definition of violators.

For container lines, this effectively rules out a return to Suez Canal routings before 2026 — and possibly not until 2027. Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds up to two weeks to Asia–Europe journeys, pushing up costs and insurance premiums, and putting additional strain on fleet capacity. The Red Sea instability has been a reminder of how localised conflicts can have global consequences for supply chains.

4. Logistics skills shortages persist
The UK continues to face a significant shortfall in logistics skills, with the Road Haulage Association estimating a deficit of around 50,000 HGV drivers. The ONS also reports 6,000 fewer courier and delivery drivers than the previous year. With 55% of HGV drivers aged between 50 and 65, the demographic imbalance remains a long-term concern.

Factors include reduced access to EU workers post-Brexit, poor industry perception, and limited uptake of government training schemes. Although the crisis is not as acute as during the height of the pandemic, the ageing workforce and lack of young entrants mean structural shortages will continue. Rising wage costs, recruitment struggles, and bottlenecks in road transport all add to the burden on UK supply chains.

5. EV shipping challenges raise alarm
The growth of electric vehicle (EV) trade has created new safety risks at sea. Several high-profile fires on car carriers have been linked to lithium-ion batteries, sparking concern among insurers, regulators, and shipowners. Insurers are pushing for tougher loading protocols, enhanced crew training, and more advanced fire suppression systems.

For supply chains, this adds cost and complexity to automotive logistics, with carriers facing higher insurance premiums and the need to retrofit vessels. It is also slowing the momentum of EV exports, just as demand for cleaner vehicles accelerates globally.

6. Sustainability regulations tighten
Sustainability regulation is reshaping procurement strategies. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is beginning to impact trade in carbon-intensive products such as steel, aluminium, and cement, with importers required to report embedded emissions.

At the same time, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is moving toward a tipping point. UK and EU mandates are pushing airlines to integrate SAF into their fuel mix, with new investments underway to scale production.

While tariffs and geopolitics grab headlines, sustainability is quietly becoming a decisive factor in supplier choice, cost structures, and long-term resilience planning. For many organisations, compliance with emissions and ESG frameworks is no longer optional but critical.

Outlook
H1 2025 has exposed the vulnerability of supply chains to political shocks, armed conflict, safety risks, and structural labour shortages. Tariffs, alliances, and attacks have disrupted networks, while long-term challenges around sustainability and skills remain unresolved.

The message for supply chain leaders is clear: resilience, agility, and visibility will be critical in the second half of 2025, as disruption becomes the new normal.

H1 2025 has underlined how vulnerable global supply chains have become and staying ahead demands visibility, expertise, and a trusted partner by your side.

Metro’s account management team works proactively with customers to anticipate risks, share insights, and design solutions that are resilient and adaptable to change.

Our expertise encompasses dangerous goods and lithium battery shipping, customs, and multimodal freight, backed by a strong people strategy that includes apprenticeships, engagement programmes, and our Great Place to Work certification.

We are also leading the way on sustainability. Metro has been carbon neutral for five years, pioneering the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), while our MVT ECO platform helps businesses forecast, measure, and offset emissions across their global supply chains.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to learn how Metro can build resilience into your supply chain.

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Expanding Intermodal Capability Across Europe with KLOG

With fellow group member KLOG, the Portuguese logistics specialist, our customers can now access a significantly enhanced intermodal network across Iberia and continental Europe, offering greater flexibility, sustainability, and control through an effective, environmentally friendly transport solution.

KLOG is one of Iberia’s leading providers of intermodal, groupage, and full-load transport, offering a well-established rail and short-sea service network that connects Portugal and Spain to key European markets—including Germany, Poland, France, and the UK in partnership with Metro.

Their network includes multiple weekly block train departures across strategic corridors, supported by last-mile delivery options and an advanced 24/7 Control Tower.

Unlocking smarter, greener European supply chains
KLOG’s intermodal services are tailored for shippers seeking reliable, cost-effective and lower-emission alternatives to road-only transport. With a wide range of 45’ equipment; curtain-sided, dry, reefer, and ISO tanks, KLOG can support a broad mix of cargo types, from consumer goods to chemicals, fresh produce and furniture.

Core rail corridors include:

  • Portugal–Poland & Germany: Two weekly block trains between Entroncamento and both Poznan and Duisburg, routing via Spain and France, with a third frequency planned.
  • Portugal–Spain: Four weekly trains between Entroncamento and Tarragona, plus 2–3 weekly services from Tarragona to Bilbao, Valladolid and Sevilla.
  • Portugal–Germany: Two weekly trains linking Lousado and Duisburg, via Mouguerre, France.
  • Short-sea and rail from Poland: Intermodal connections via Gdansk to Bilbao and onward rail to Tarragona.

Intermodal transit times are highly competitive, many comparable with full truckload delivery times, but with significantly lower road dependency and greater environmental benefit.

KLOG’s services delivers average CO₂ reductions of 85–90% compared to road freight. Rail is more fuel-efficient, produces fewer emissions, and removes trucks from congested European roads, contributing to cleaner air, fewer road accidents, and less strain on driver resources.

With sustainability now embedded in corporate and regulatory priorities, intermodal freight offers a practical path for reducing emissions without sacrificing reliability or control. And as rail corridors increasingly move towards electrification, the carbon savings will only grow.

Your direct route to smarter European logistics
With KLOG, Metro’s customers gain access to a powerful intermodal network fully supported by:

  • Metro’s MVT supply chain platform for complete vendor-to-destination visibility across modes
  • Dedicated European team for regional expertise and support
  • High-frequency intermodal services, linking directly with Metro’s road network for final and last-mile delivery.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, managing director, today to learn how KLOG’s intermodal network could reduce your carbon footprint, without compromising on speed, service, or cost.

European roadmap to recovery

ICS2 and ELO: Preparing for the Next Phase of EU Border Compliance

As of 1st April, the European Union’s Import Control System 2 (ICS2) entered its final implementation phase; a critical milestone for businesses moving goods into the EU. 

Designed to enhance the safety and security of EU-bound shipments, ICS2 is now live across all transport modes, including road and rail, in addition to air, maritime, and inland waterways.

Import Control System 2

ICS2 introduces a standardised, data-driven pre-arrival notification for goods entering the EU. The system mandates the submission of accurate and complete Entry Summary Declarations (ENS) before arrival at the EU’s external border. These declarations allow customs authorities to perform detailed risk assessments and target high-risk consignments before they enter the supply chain.

This not only improves customs enforcement but supports a more secure and streamlined trade environment.

This latest phase introduces two key updates:

  1. 1. Mandatory House Bill Filings for Surface Containerised Movements
    This update predominantly affects sea freight and applies to:

    • Goods moving to the EU
    • In-transit shipments through the EU
    • Freight Remaining on Board (FROB)
  1. 2. Live ICS2 Filing for Road and Rail Movements
    Both accompanied and unaccompanied trailers now fall under ICS2’s scope. Businesses must submit ENS data 1 to 2 hours before EU arrival, depending on the transport type. Timing is critical — incomplete or late submissions could lead to delays, detentions, or even denied entry.

The Enveloppe Logistique Obligatoire

As introduced during our most recent webinar, ELO is not to be confused with the 70s rock band, it represents a major evolution in French customs procedures.

ELO is an extension of France’s import/export pairing process. Under the new system, every crossing from GB into France will require a declaration barcode, which also supports onward movement into the remaining 27 EU countries. The goal is to digitise and streamline freight verification, with a single ELO envelope covering the full logistics trail.

Metro’s Briefing Webinar

On Friday, 28th March, Metro hosted its second industry webinar, focusing on the latest regulatory developments. The webinar audience were briefed by our experts on the latest regulatory developments, including ICS2 declarations, the introduction of ELO, updates and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). 

They were also updated on changes to the UK Customs Declaration Service (CDS) for exports, evolving trade agreements such as the CPTPP, and implications of the Windsor Framework for Northern Ireland.

The session aimed to ensure attendees are not just compliant but well-positioned to optimise their supply chain strategies in this evolving regulatory landscape.

Stay connected with Metro for expert-led insights, upcoming webinars, and on-the-ground support to navigate new regulatory frameworks confidently. EMAIL Andy Fitchett to register your interest.

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Seven supply chain shocks in seven weeks

Just seven weeks into 2025, global supply chains have already faced a whirlwind of challenges.

From industrial action to trade barriers and shifting alliances, businesses must stay agile to navigate ongoing disruptions. Here are seven of the most impactful developments so far this year.

1. US east coast port strike averted (8th January)
A major disruption was narrowly avoided as the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a tentative six-year agreement. The deal, approved on 7 February, prevented a strike that could have crippled US east coast ports for months. A final vote on 25 February will confirm its ratification.

2. Uncertainty over Suez Canal return (19th January)
Despite a fragile ceasefire in Gaza, container ships will not be returning to the Red Sea anytime soon. Carriers remain cautious, fearing renewed instability and prioritising the established Cape of Good Hope diversions. Even if ships do resume transit, severe disruption is expected, with schedules taking up to two months to stabilise.

3. Trump’s trade policies spark concerns (20th January)
Following his inauguration, President Trump swiftly reignited trade tensions, threatening tariffs on Colombia, China, Canada, and Mexico. Proposals include a 25% levy on steel and aluminium from Canada and Mexico, with reciprocal tariffs also being considered for UK imports. The potential trade war could have widespread consequences for global supply chains.

4. US air cargo demand under threat (1st February)
Trump’s decision to impose a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports and temporarily suspend the de minimis exemption for low-value Chinese shipments has sent shockwaves through the air freight sector. While the exemption was reinstated, changes to eCommerce regulations could significantly disrupt air cargo flows into the US, which is expected to receive 1.4 billion eCommerce packages this year.

5. New Asia shipping alliances reshape trade (2nd February)
The long-anticipated shift from three major container alliances (Ocean, THEA, 2M) to four key players (Ocean, Premier, Gemini, MSC) is now in effect. Asia-North Europe scheduled liner capacity will shrink by 11%, yet the number of weekly sailings will increase from 26 to 28. These changes will reshape global shipping networks for years to come.

6. European road freight rates stabilising (4th February)
After three years of decline, European road freight spot rates may have hit their lowest point. According to the European Road Freight Rate Benchmark, spot rates fell just 1% year-on-year in Q4 2024. While demand remains weak, cost pressures have kept rates 15% above pre-pandemic levels, with short-term volatility expected.

7. Carriers cut sailings to stabilise rates (14th February)
Shipping lines are aggressively blanking sailings to ease the transition to new alliance schedules and sustain freight rates. Between 17 February and 23 March, 51 sailings have been cancelled across key east-west trade routes, with February’s cancellations rising to 133 from 104 in January. Further capacity withdrawals and a general rate increase (GRI) could follow if demand fails to recover.

With trade disputes, shipping realignments, and geopolitical instability shaping global supply chains, the first quarter of 2025 has already presented significant challenges.

Staying ahead requires proactive strategy adjustments to mitigate risks and build resilience. That’s why we share these insights and why your Metro account management team is always by your side, ready to provide expert advice, share knowledge, and develop bespoke solutions tailored to your supply chain needs.

For high-level support, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director.