Blanking is biting

Blanked Sailings Amid Geopolitical Shifts

May 13, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Global sea freight is navigating a complex landscape marked by geopolitical tensions, fluctuating demand, and strategic capacity adjustments and while a temporary US-China tariff truce offers a glimmer of hope, challenges persist across major trade lanes.

In response to weakening demand, particularly on transpacific routes, ocean carriers have taken aggressive steps to manage overcapacity. Year-on-year capacity reductions of around 4% to 5% have been recorded on Asia-North America trades for April and May. The Asia to US East Coast route has been especially impacted, with reports suggesting shippers face as much as a 40% cut in weekly slot availability due to a sharp rise in blanked sailings. Some weeks have seen up to 10 scheduled services withdrawn.

The trend of blank sailings is not uniform across all alliances. Major players have taken divergent approaches, with some choosing to maintain network stability while others have opted for deep cuts to protect rate levels. MSC, the world’s largest shipping line, has launched a sweeping revamp of its east-west network, consolidating services and shifting vessels between routes in an effort to optimise capacity and mitigate the financial impacts of underutilised sailings.

The effect of these service cancellations has been most visible in spot rate volatility. Container spot rates between Asia and Europe have been pressured as additional capacity and lower-than-expected booking levels weigh on prices. In contrast, rates from Asia to the US, particularly the US West Coast, have remained relatively firm due to tighter supply caused by blank sailings and ongoing retailer inventory replenishments.

The scale of blanked sailings is contributing to a growing sense of uncertainty in booking reliability. With last-minute sailing cancellations and frequent schedule changes becoming increasingly common, an emerging trend has been to split bookings across multiple carriers to hedge against cancellations.

US-China Tariff Truce: A Temporary Respite
Amid this volatile environment, the recent US-China agreement to temporarily reduce tariffs for 90 days from May 14 offers some hope. The US has lowered tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China has eased tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%.

The impact of the tariff pause has yet to fully filter through to shipping demand. However, many in the industry hope it could reignite volumes, especially in the transpacific trade, which has been hardest hit by tariff-driven disruptions and reduced consumer demand. The long-term benefits depend on whether this truce leads to a broader and more lasting trade agreement.

Looking Ahead: A Market in Flux
Even with the tariff reprieve, the global sea freight market faces lingering challenges. The combination of excessive vessel deliveries into a market of uncertain demand is expected to maintain downward pressure on rates in the months ahead. Ocean carriers are likely to continue balancing network adjustments, including further blank sailings and service restructures, to keep load factors at sustainable levels.

Some industry observers note that capacity cascading is already underway, with surplus vessels being redeployed to secondary trades such as Asia-Europe or intra-Asia, although these markets cannot fully absorb the overflow from the transpacific.

The situation remains fluid, with geopolitical risks, shifting consumer spending patterns, and global economic uncertainty all contributing to ongoing volatility. While the short-term outlook is mixed, we remain focused on managing risk and seeking stability in what continues to be a highly dynamic and unpredictable market.

The global sea freight market continues to adjust to shifting demand and capacity changes. With significant change underway, now is the ideal time to review your ocean freight strategy to ensure continuity and flexibility. EMAIL Andy Smith, Managing Director, to discuss how we can support your business with tailored solutions that keep your supply chain resilient and competitive.

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India and Pakistan Impose Cargo Bans

May 13, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The fragile balance of South Asia’s supply chain network has been thrown into disarray after India and Pakistan imposed tit-for-tat bans on each other’s cargo.

The diplomatic standoff, triggered by recent violence in Kashmir and subsequent military exchanges, has sent shockwaves through ocean freight and air cargo networks, with the full extent of disruption still unfolding.

The restrictions have led to widespread delays and rerouting of vessels. India’s decision to prohibit ships carrying Pakistani cargo from docking at its ports has forced carriers to divert to transhipment hubs such as Colombo, creating congestion and adding time and cost.

Pakistan’s blanket ban on Indian goods in response has only compounded the uncertainty. Vessels already en route have been left scrambling for alternative discharge options, while planned schedules are being hastily redrawn.

Space shortages are emerging on regional sailings as shipping lines juggle altered rotations. Delays have rippled into feeder services and inland supply chains, resulting in longer transit times and missed delivery windows. Importers with urgent supply chain needs, such as fast fashion and electronics, face particular challenges as they attempt to secure scarce space at short notice.

The congestion has already pushed freight rates higher, with emergency surcharges now being levied on Pakistan-bound cargo by some carriers. We expect other shipping lines to follow suit as the cost of rerouting and delays continues to mount. Rates out of India, which had been steadily rising in the weeks prior to the crisis, are now expected to surge further.

The disruption has also spilled into the air cargo sector. Major airlines have started diverting flights to avoid Pakistan’s airspace, leading to longer flight times, higher fuel costs, and mounting pressure on capacity across Asia-Europe and Asia-US routes.

While two-way trade between India and Pakistan is relatively small, the standoff has had far wider implications. Third-country shipments caught between the two jurisdictions have been caught up in the diplomatic crossfire, with containers stranded or forced to take circuitous routes at significant extra cost.

With no immediate diplomatic solution in sight, supply chain stakeholders are preparing for ongoing uncertainty. Carriers are assessing whether to restructure service loops or add additional calls to alternative ports such as Jebel Ali to minimise customer disruption. However, the fallout comes on top of existing challenges, including ongoing Red Sea-related delays and persistent global port congestion.

The bans underline how geopolitical flashpoints can rapidly cascade into global supply chain instability. For cargo owners and logistics providers, the India-Pakistan crisis is a stark reminder of the need for flexible routing strategies and contingency planning in an era of growing geopolitical risk.

Geopolitical tensions and unexpected port bans can severely disrupt supply chains, as the India-Pakistan cargo restrictions have shown. In these uncertain times, it is critical for cargo owners to ensure that their marine insurance policies are robust and offer continuity of cover under all circumstances. We strongly advise all shippers to review the fine print and clauses of their insurance to avoid costly gaps in protection.

At Metro, we can help you safeguard your supply chain and navigate today’s complex global shipping environment with confidence. EMAIL Andy Smith, Managing Director, to discuss how we can support your business with risk management strategies, secure freight solutions, and expert guidance on marine insurance best practices.

Hidden threat to exporters

Northern Europe’s Ports Struggle with Congestion Amid Network Shifts

Apr 29, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Ports across Northern Europe are grappling with rising congestion, causing widespread delays and operational disruption. A confluence of industrial action, infrastructure strain, inland transport bottlenecks and the rollout of new shipping alliances is overwhelming terminals, with no immediate relief in sight.

Container volumes have surged at key gateways such as Antwerp-Bruges, Bremerhaven, Rotterdam, and Felixstowe, with waiting times and yard occupancy levels climbing.

Antwerp is experiencing yard utilisation at 96%, with reefer plugs over capacity at 112%.

Nearly half the vessels arriving are waiting for berths, and 52 more containerships are en route. Berthing delays are being exacerbated by residual backlogs following strikes at the end of March, and the port has reduced its export delivery window to five days to help ease pressure.

In Germany, Bremerhaven is seeing similar strain, with nearly 30% of vessels waiting for berths and inland rail disruptions further complicating the situation. Landslides and line closures near Hannover forced lengthy rail detours, impacting traffic to and from major ports including Hamburg, Rotterdam and Duisburg. These rail delays are causing a cascading effect across Northern Europe’s inland logistics.

The Netherlands is also under pressure, with unresolved automation disputes in Rotterdam contributing to labour-related delays. In France, strikes at Le Havre have eased for now during ongoing negotiations, but the risk of renewed action remains high.

The UK is not immune. Felixstowe, London Gateway, and Southampton are all dealing with congestion as vessel diversions from continental ports push volumes higher.

Multiple factors are compounding the problem. The phasing in and out of new alliance schedules—particularly by Maersk, MSC, and Hapag-Lloyd—is disrupting established flows and increasing port calls. Simultaneously, low water levels on the Rhine are limiting barge capacity, shifting more freight to already stretched rail and road networks. Labour shortages, especially during public holidays, have further constrained operations.

With delays mounting, carriers are urging shippers to collect containers promptly and to avoid early delivery of exports. Some terminals, like PSA Antwerp, have shortened delivery windows to reduce yard congestion. Carriers are implementing contingency plans on a vessel-by-vessel basis and may introduce congestion surcharges to offset rising operational costs.

Industry forecasts suggest that congestion could persist for another three to four months, until alliance network changes bed in and volumes normalise. In the meantime, importers and exporters should prepare for longer lead times, increased costs, and fluctuating capacity at Europe’s busiest container ports.

With congestion disrupting major European gateways, our flexible contingency plans are keeping cargo moving, rerouting through alternative ports and opening up new entry points.

To reduce delays and protect your supply chain, share your shipping forecasts early so we can act fast and proactively manage risks.

For expert advice and tailored solutions, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, today.

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UK De Minimis Rule Under Review

Apr 29, 2025 | , , ,

The UK government has announced plans to review the longstanding de minimis tax exemption for low-value imports, in a move that has been welcomed by major British retailers.

The rule currently allows goods valued at £135 or less to enter the UK without incurring customs duties; a system critics argue has been exploited by international eCommerce platforms at the expense of UK businesses.

The Latin term “de minimis” translates to “the smallest things” and has traditionally been used to justify the exemption of very low-value goods from burdensome customs procedures. However, as eCommerce volumes have grown and global online platforms increasingly rely on this exemption, its relevance and fairness have come under scrutiny.

Speaking at the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington DC, Chancellor Rachel Reeves signalled the government’s intention to help UK firms compete fairly by closing the loophole that international sellers have used to undercut domestic retailers.

Retailers argue that platforms like Temu and Shein leverage the exemption to ship millions of low-value parcels into the UK each day, often without meeting British environmental, ethical, or consumer safety standards, and are sold duty-free while UK retailers pay full VAT and import taxes.

Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, said the review is “most welcome,” emphasising that it could prevent the UK from becoming a dumping ground for substandard goods in the wake of global trade turmoil.

Jonathan Reynolds, the UK’s Business and Trade Secretary, echoed this sentiment, promising “urgent steps to deliver quicker protections” for domestic firms.

The issue mirrors changes in the US, where the government has already lowered its de minimis threshold from $2,500 to $800 and is preparing to end the exemption altogether for China from May 2.

Retailers argue that eliminating the de minimis loophole would not only create a level playing field, but also enhance consumer protection, increase tax revenues, and support the struggling High Street. As the UK prepares to engage with stakeholders in the coming months, the move could reshape how global eCommerce platforms operate within the British market.

As tax exemptions tighten, Metro’s end-to-end airfreight and courier solutions combine speed, cost-efficiency and full regulatory alignment for both parcel and bulk eCommerce shipments.

With strategic block space agreements (BSA) and capacity purchase agreements (CPA) in place, we secure priority capacity and competitive rates across high-demand trade lanes so your products keep moving, even as the rules shift.

EMAIL Elliot Carlile, Operations Director, today to explore how Metro can help you stay compliant and competitive.

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