Indian port congestion looms

Cargo Rush Sparks Port Congestion and Equipment Shortages

May 26, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The recent 90-day pause on US tariffs on Chinese imports has sparked a dramatic surge in demand, as American importers scramble to front-load shipments ahead of the 14 August deadline. The demand spike is now placing considerable pressure on supply chains across Asia and Europe, threatening to disrupt global freight flows into the traditional peak season.

Freight bookings from China to the US rocketed 300% in just one week, marking the highest volume levels of the year so far, as US importers use the temporary reprieve to push through previously delayed shipments.

While the tariff rate remains high at 30%, it is significantly lower than the 145% rates imposed earlier in the spring. Importers are moving quickly to take advantage of this limited window of cost certainty, but the consequences are already being felt far beyond China’s borders.

With ships now flooding back into Chinese ports, congestion has rapidly intensified:

  • Shanghai and Qingdao are experiencing berth waiting times of 24–72 hours.
  • Ningbo reports delays of 24–36 hours, while the congestion there is now worsening due to diverted volumes.
  • Busan is reporting 72-hour waits at the PNIT Terminal.
  • Singapore and Yokohama are also affected, with waiting times up to 36 and 24 hours, respectively.

Carriers are reporting widespread bunching and missed berths, forcing some vessels to skip port calls entirely. Simultaneously, container availability is tightening, especially in Shanghai and Ningbo, where carriers have begun rationing equipment based on rate levels and space commitments. Maersk and HMM are among those limiting container release in an attempt to balance capacity with available slots.

Further down the line, ports in southern China, Southeast Asia, and even intra-Asia trades are also reporting backlogs. Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Ho Chi Minh City, and Port Klang have all seen yard utilisation rise and service delays build.

Strain Spreads to Europe as Container Flows Disrupt
The congestion is not limited to Asia. As carriers reposition vessels and adjust service rotations to meet surging demand on eastbound transpacific routes, European ports are beginning to feel the knock-on effects.

In northern Europe:

  • Hamburg is facing 5–6½ days of berth delays,
  • Southampton and London Gateway are seeing 3-day waits,
  • Antwerp is experiencing severe disruption with delays extending to 15½ days,
  • Piraeus and Tangiers are also impacted, each facing waits of up to 4 and 3 days, respectively.

Labour shortages, reduced barge capacity on the Rhine, and tight schedules are compounding these delays. Meanwhile, rerouted vessels from Asia–Europe services are creating bunching at key transhipment hubs such as Bremerhaven and Hamburg, which in turn serve Scandinavia and the Baltic.

Equipment Shortages and Capacity Gaps Ahead of Peak Season
Container availability is expected to worsen in the coming weeks. With vessels already departing China at high utilisation levels, the return of empty containers and the repositioning of ships to Asia may not keep pace with demand.

If previously produced goods held in bonded warehouses are added to this surge in volumes during May, demand could increase by nearly 50%. A delay to June would ease the burden, but it could still be over 15%, which still represents a steep challenge ahead of the summer peak.

This front-loading of cargo to the US may lead to a sharp, compressed peak season starting now and stretching into mid-July, followed by potential equipment shortages and service volatility in August and beyond.

We are closely monitoring port performance, vessel schedules, and rate volatility across all major trade lanes, to support customers with:

  • Priority bookings and space management on transpacific and key routes
  • Equipment selection and container allocation strategies
  • Alternative routing and scheduling options to avoid bottlenecks
  • Global shipment visibility to SKU

EMAIL Managing Director Andrew Smith to discuss current conditions, risk mitigation, and booking options tailored to your business priorities.

Long Beach2

Tariff Pause Triggers Early Transpacific Peak Season

May 22, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , ,

The 90-day suspension of US-China tariffs has delivered a sharp jolt to transpacific ocean freight, triggering an unseasonal spike in demand and pushing spot rates up significantly.

This unexpected policy reprieve has not only created a narrow window of predictability for US importers, but also accelerated peak season behaviours months ahead of the traditional schedule.

With booking volumes surging and available capacity still constrained, shippers are entering a period of extreme competition for space and elevated freight costs, especially on Asia–US West Coast lanes.

Since the announcement of the tariff pause, transpacific spot rates have climbed steeply. The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 14% last week, with further gains expected. This marks the largest weekly increase of 2025 so far and reflects mounting pressure on space and capacity across eastbound transpacific routes.

  • Shanghai–Los Angeles FEU rates have climbed 16% in just one week.
  • Shanghai–New York DEU rates jumped 19%.

While these levels remain well below pandemic highs, they are trending upward quickly, particularly as US importers race to bring in goods during the tariff pause window, which expires on 14 August.

Sudden and Significant Capacity Crunch
The spike in demand has exposed a capacity shortfall that many believed had stabilised. Carriers had withdrawn substantial tonnage from Far East–US West Coast services in April and May, anticipating a slower season. Now, those services are being rapidly reinstated in full as bookings rebound sharply.

Carriers have responded with unusual speed, with suspended loops returning across multiple alliances, vessels are being upsized to handle growing volumes, additional services are being announced and blanked sailings reversed.

Despite these adjustments, near-term capacity remains tight, especially due to ongoing vessel redeployments, congestion at Chinese ports, and bottlenecks at container freight stations (CFS) in China.

Adding to the live bookings, is a wave of previously manufactured cargo stored in bonded warehouses, which is expected to enter the market imminently.

If this stored cargo flows into the system during the remainder of May, demand could spike by 16% to 48% on top of normal levels. If shipments are delayed until June, the increase would ease to a more manageable 5% to 16%, but that assumes no further acceleration from early peak season orders.

Importantly, this analysis does not yet account for traditional peak season volumes, which are expected to surge in the coming weeks as US importers seek to front-load shipments ahead of the 14 August tariff deadline.

Challenges and Considerations
The rapid resurgence in volumes is pushing logistics networks to their limits. Shippers can expect tight space availability, higher rates, with ongoing volatility through June and July, possible rollovers, even on confirmed bookings, and longer dwell times, with delays at origin due to congestion

While carriers are acting quickly to rebalance networks, the sheer speed and scale of the demand rebound mean constraints are likely to persist through Q3.

As always, Metro is working closely with clients to minimise disruption and capitalise on available capacity. With robust freight forwarding capabilities, deep ocean carrier relationships, and on-the-ground presence in the United States, we’re helping customers:

  • Secure space and locked-in rates on core transpacific lanes
  • Prioritise high-value or time-sensitive cargo
  • Adjust routing strategies to reduce risk and maintain delivery schedules

With early peak season now well under way, proactive planning is essential. Space is already tightening, and costs will likely continue to climb in the lead-up to August.

If your business relies on Asia–US trade flows, EMAIL Andrew Smith today and learn how we will keep your supply chain running smoothly, despite the disruption.

Houthis 1440x1080 1

Trump’s Red Sea Gambit

May 13, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

A dramatic shift in the Red Sea shipping crisis may be underway following US President Donald Trump’s announcement that Houthi militants have agreed to halt their campaign against commercial vessels.

His declaration has sparked hopes of restored freedom of navigation through one of the world’s most vital maritime corridors. However, conflicting signals from the Houthis and persistent security concerns leave the industry navigating uncertain waters.

Trump’s comments, made ahead of a high-profile meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on May 6, suggested that after months of military escalation, a breakthrough had been reached. The President claimed that the Houthis had “capitulated” and would cease missile and drone strikes on commercial shipping. He pledged that US airstrikes on Yemeni targets would also end in response.

Omani diplomatic sources have echoed the ceasefire narrative, pointing to coordinated discussions that purportedly yielded a de-escalation agreement and a commitment to non-aggression on both sides.

Yet, the Houthis have swiftly rejected Trump’s portrayal, asserting that no formal truce exists. According to Houthi representatives, the group’s military stance remains unchanged, particularly in relation to Israel, and any pause in attacks was a tactical decision rather than the result of concessions.

This ambiguity undermines confidence among major container lines, many of which continue to avoid Red Sea routes due to crew safety concerns and inflated insurance premiums.

If hostilities genuinely subside, container carriers could begin rerouting vessels back through the Suez Canal. Around 10% of global container capacity has been absorbed by the longer, costlier voyages around southern Africa. A return to Suez would free up this latent capacity, potentially exacerbating overcapacity issues already pressuring the industry. With the container vessel order book standing at about a quarter of the current fleet size, the market faces mounting risk of supply-demand imbalance.

Freight rates, which surged earlier due to the Red Sea crisis, could spike again if carriers resume shorter transits en masse, before softening once schedules settle back down. And while rate increases and extended lead times could finally see some relief the resulting supply-side glut may create new headaches for the container shipping lines.

Port activity along the Red Sea remains subdued, with volumes reportedly down by around half compared to last year. A reliable and lasting resolution could rejuvenate regional trade flows, benefiting not only global carriers but also Gulf-based shippers and transhipment hubs that have been cut off from direct east-west routes.

For now, the shipping industry remains caught between political theatre and on-the-ground reality. Whether Trump’s announcement marks the dawn of stability or another premature claim depends on actions in the Bab al-Mandab, not words in Washington.

The situation in the Red Sea remains unpredictable and liable to change. If your business relies on consistent global shipping operations, this is the perfect time to review your contingency plans and explore flexible alternatives. EMAIL Andy Smith, Managing Director, to learn how we maintain stability and keep supply chains running smoothly, whatever the challenge.

Blanking is biting

Blanked Sailings Amid Geopolitical Shifts

May 13, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Global sea freight is navigating a complex landscape marked by geopolitical tensions, fluctuating demand, and strategic capacity adjustments and while a temporary US-China tariff truce offers a glimmer of hope, challenges persist across major trade lanes.

In response to weakening demand, particularly on transpacific routes, ocean carriers have taken aggressive steps to manage overcapacity. Year-on-year capacity reductions of around 4% to 5% have been recorded on Asia-North America trades for April and May. The Asia to US East Coast route has been especially impacted, with reports suggesting shippers face as much as a 40% cut in weekly slot availability due to a sharp rise in blanked sailings. Some weeks have seen up to 10 scheduled services withdrawn.

The trend of blank sailings is not uniform across all alliances. Major players have taken divergent approaches, with some choosing to maintain network stability while others have opted for deep cuts to protect rate levels. MSC, the world’s largest shipping line, has launched a sweeping revamp of its east-west network, consolidating services and shifting vessels between routes in an effort to optimise capacity and mitigate the financial impacts of underutilised sailings.

The effect of these service cancellations has been most visible in spot rate volatility. Container spot rates between Asia and Europe have been pressured as additional capacity and lower-than-expected booking levels weigh on prices. In contrast, rates from Asia to the US, particularly the US West Coast, have remained relatively firm due to tighter supply caused by blank sailings and ongoing retailer inventory replenishments.

The scale of blanked sailings is contributing to a growing sense of uncertainty in booking reliability. With last-minute sailing cancellations and frequent schedule changes becoming increasingly common, an emerging trend has been to split bookings across multiple carriers to hedge against cancellations.

US-China Tariff Truce: A Temporary Respite
Amid this volatile environment, the recent US-China agreement to temporarily reduce tariffs for 90 days from May 14 offers some hope. The US has lowered tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China has eased tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%.

The impact of the tariff pause has yet to fully filter through to shipping demand. However, many in the industry hope it could reignite volumes, especially in the transpacific trade, which has been hardest hit by tariff-driven disruptions and reduced consumer demand. The long-term benefits depend on whether this truce leads to a broader and more lasting trade agreement.

Looking Ahead: A Market in Flux
Even with the tariff reprieve, the global sea freight market faces lingering challenges. The combination of excessive vessel deliveries into a market of uncertain demand is expected to maintain downward pressure on rates in the months ahead. Ocean carriers are likely to continue balancing network adjustments, including further blank sailings and service restructures, to keep load factors at sustainable levels.

Some industry observers note that capacity cascading is already underway, with surplus vessels being redeployed to secondary trades such as Asia-Europe or intra-Asia, although these markets cannot fully absorb the overflow from the transpacific.

The situation remains fluid, with geopolitical risks, shifting consumer spending patterns, and global economic uncertainty all contributing to ongoing volatility. While the short-term outlook is mixed, we remain focused on managing risk and seeking stability in what continues to be a highly dynamic and unpredictable market.

The global sea freight market continues to adjust to shifting demand and capacity changes. With significant change underway, now is the ideal time to review your ocean freight strategy to ensure continuity and flexibility. EMAIL Andy Smith, Managing Director, to discuss how we can support your business with tailored solutions that keep your supply chain resilient and competitive.

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