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H1 2025: Six Developments Reshaping Global Trade

Aug 19, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The first half of 2025 has been one of the most turbulent periods for supply chains in recent memory. From renewed tariff wars to fresh geopolitical flashpoints, logistics professionals have had to contend with a constantly shifting landscape.

At the same time, structural challenges around skills, safety, and sustainability have continued to grow. Here we review six developments that defined H1 2025.

1. Tariffs return to the fore
The pause in US tariff escalation ended in August, with the White House reintroducing “reciprocal” tariffs that apply baseline duties of 10% to all countries and higher rates of 10–41% depending on origin. The UK sit at the low end, while Syria faces the steepest levels. Brazil has been singled out further, hit by an additional 40% levy. Canada also saw tariffs raised from 25% to 35% on certain goods, justified by Washington’s claim that Ottawa has not done enough to curb fentanyl flows.

The executive order applies from 7 August 2025, with a grace period allowing cargo already loaded onto vessels before that date to arrive until 5 October 2025. To add complexity, US Customs will also impose new fees on Chinese-built or operated vessels from 14 October, potentially forcing alliances such as the Ocean Alliance into costly fleet reshuffles. Carriers are already working through how to redeploy capacity to avoid penalties, with COSCO and OOCL particularly exposed.

2. New shipping alliances reshape networks
The recomposition of global shipping alliances in Q1 has reshaped carrier strategies. The launch of the Gemini Cooperation between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd marked one of the most significant realignments in recent years, focused on achieving 90%+ schedule reliability. Shippers are already seeing more dependable services, but questions remain about whether premium pricing will follow.

Other alliances, particularly Ocean and THE Alliance (now Premier Alliance), are recalibrating networks, with competition sharpening across Asia–Europe and transpacific trades. For shippers, the alliance changes mean rethinking service contracts and adapting to new network structures that could endure for much of the decade.

3. Houthi attacks deepen Red Sea crisis
The Red Sea crisis, triggered by Houthi rebel attacks, has now stretched on for nearly two years. In July 2025 the threat escalated further with the sinking of the Magic Seas, a Greek-operated vessel targeted for its links to companies calling at Israeli ports. Analysis suggests that one in six vessels globally could now be considered threatened under the Houthis’ broad definition of violators.

For container lines, this effectively rules out a return to Suez Canal routings before 2026 — and possibly not until 2027. Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds up to two weeks to Asia–Europe journeys, pushing up costs and insurance premiums, and putting additional strain on fleet capacity. The Red Sea instability has been a reminder of how localised conflicts can have global consequences for supply chains.

4. Logistics skills shortages persist
The UK continues to face a significant shortfall in logistics skills, with the Road Haulage Association estimating a deficit of around 50,000 HGV drivers. The ONS also reports 6,000 fewer courier and delivery drivers than the previous year. With 55% of HGV drivers aged between 50 and 65, the demographic imbalance remains a long-term concern.

Factors include reduced access to EU workers post-Brexit, poor industry perception, and limited uptake of government training schemes. Although the crisis is not as acute as during the height of the pandemic, the ageing workforce and lack of young entrants mean structural shortages will continue. Rising wage costs, recruitment struggles, and bottlenecks in road transport all add to the burden on UK supply chains.

5. EV shipping challenges raise alarm
The growth of electric vehicle (EV) trade has created new safety risks at sea. Several high-profile fires on car carriers have been linked to lithium-ion batteries, sparking concern among insurers, regulators, and shipowners. Insurers are pushing for tougher loading protocols, enhanced crew training, and more advanced fire suppression systems.

For supply chains, this adds cost and complexity to automotive logistics, with carriers facing higher insurance premiums and the need to retrofit vessels. It is also slowing the momentum of EV exports, just as demand for cleaner vehicles accelerates globally.

6. Sustainability regulations tighten
Sustainability regulation is reshaping procurement strategies. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is beginning to impact trade in carbon-intensive products such as steel, aluminium, and cement, with importers required to report embedded emissions.

At the same time, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is moving toward a tipping point. UK and EU mandates are pushing airlines to integrate SAF into their fuel mix, with new investments underway to scale production.

While tariffs and geopolitics grab headlines, sustainability is quietly becoming a decisive factor in supplier choice, cost structures, and long-term resilience planning. For many organisations, compliance with emissions and ESG frameworks is no longer optional but critical.

Outlook
H1 2025 has exposed the vulnerability of supply chains to political shocks, armed conflict, safety risks, and structural labour shortages. Tariffs, alliances, and attacks have disrupted networks, while long-term challenges around sustainability and skills remain unresolved.

The message for supply chain leaders is clear: resilience, agility, and visibility will be critical in the second half of 2025, as disruption becomes the new normal.

H1 2025 has underlined how vulnerable global supply chains have become and staying ahead demands visibility, expertise, and a trusted partner by your side.

Metro’s account management team works proactively with customers to anticipate risks, share insights, and design solutions that are resilient and adaptable to change.

Our expertise encompasses dangerous goods and lithium battery shipping, customs, and multimodal freight, backed by a strong people strategy that includes apprenticeships, engagement programmes, and our Great Place to Work certification.

We are also leading the way on sustainability. Metro has been carbon neutral for five years, pioneering the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), while our MVT ECO platform helps businesses forecast, measure, and offset emissions across their global supply chains.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to learn how Metro can build resilience into your supply chain.

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August 2025 Tariff Situation: New Rules, New Rates

Aug 5, 2025 | ,

The US tariff reset that took effect from has ushered in a tiered regime targeting dozens of trading partners, while locking in new agreements with key allies including the UK and EU. The measures follow months of negotiation and a deadline that forced countries to strike deals or face steep duties.

The executive order signed on 1 August by President Trump introduced a new system linking tariff rates to trade balances:

  • 10% tariff – for partners with strong reciprocal purchasing, including the UK and Brazil.
  • 15% tariff – for partners with smaller deficits, such as the EU, Japan and South Korea.
  • Higher rates – for countries with large surpluses or no negotiated deal, rising steeply depending on product category. Examples include:
    • Canada – now at 35% (USMCA‑compliant goods exempt).
    • India – 25%.
    • Switzerland – 39%.
    • Taiwan – 20%.

China remains outside the framework, facing a 12 August deadline to conclude its own agreement or revert to previously threatened peak tariffs.

Most new rates officially take effect 7 August, giving US Customs a brief window to configure enforcement systems. For companies shipping under pre‑deal arrangements, any goods cleared into the US before this date will avoid the new duties; shipments arriving later will be assessed at the revised rates.

Supply Chain Impacts

  • UK–US trade – While the UK avoided steeper tariffs, the 10% rate still raises import costs for UK‑origin goods into the US, particularly in manufacturing, automotive, and speciality food sectors.
  • EU–US trade – 15% baseline tariff now locked in under the July framework deal, with specific product carve‑outs still to be agreed.
  • Canada and Mexico – Canada now faces significant exposure outside USMCA‑compliant flows; Mexico remains under a 90‑day extension before potential hikes.
  • Asia–US trade – Taiwan, India, and other regional suppliers face higher rates, pushing importers to reassess sourcing strategies.

Strategic Considerations for Shippers

  • Re‑map sourcing – Companies may need to adjust supplier portfolios to balance cost impact against tariff exposure.
  • Track compliance – Documentation proving origin will be critical to avoid unintended penalties, especially for goods moving through multiple countries.
  • Build flexibility – With China’s 12 August deadline looming and other bilateral negotiations ongoing, trade conditions could shift again within weeks.

In today’s changing tariff environment, Metro’s customs brokerage services keep U.S. importers compliant, informed, and in control. Our proprietary AI, ML, and automation‑driven brokerage platform — CuDoS — is updated instantly as new rules and tariffs take effect.

Metro Global USA delivers end‑to‑end clearance support, from documentation validation and tariff strategy to structuring entries for exemption eligibility, even on shipments routed via transshipment hubs. Whether navigating classification changes or securing the right evidence for tariff relief, we combine local knowledge, intelligent systems, and customs expertise to simplify compliance and protect your business.

Email Managing Director, Andrew Smith, to learn more about our customs services and CuDoS platform.

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Front‑Loading and Hidden Inventory Disrupt Traditional Peak Season

Aug 5, 2025 | ,

The traditional second‑half transpacific cargo peak is unlikely to materialise this year as a wave of accelerated shipments in the first half of 2025 has drained demand from the later months, while significant volumes of hidden inventory remain stalled in supply chains.

In the first half of 2025, shippers brought forward large volumes of cargo in anticipation of increasing tariffs later in the year. This front‑loading intensified in May and June, particularly on Asia–US West Coast and East Coast routes. By July and August, the usual third‑quarter build‑up failed to materialise, with demand easing as warehouses filled with earlier‑delivered stock. Through August and September, significant volumes remained stored in bonded facilities and regional hubs across the US, delaying their movement into end‑markets.

US importers are taking a cautious stance, with many shifting to calling-off or ordering only what is immediately required, adopting a “wait‑and‑see” approach in response to ongoing uncertainty over the US economic outlook and potential trade policy shifts.

Hidden Inventory Dampens Air Cargo Flow
The holding back of cargo is affecting airfreight patterns. Instead of moving directly to consignees, goods are being held at warehouses, hubs and terminals throughout the supply chain, often without showing on anyone’s dashboard. This “hidden inventory” keeps spot demand artificially subdued while preventing a normal seasonal rate drop.

As a result, air cargo rates may remain supported and despite signs of a cooling demand environment. Market turnover is slowed, with more tariff turmoil pushing the impact of inventory release further into the year.

With peak volumes shifted earlier in the year, the traditional seasonal curve has flattened, making weaker‑than‑usual cargo surges likely in the third and fourth quarters. This shift creates capacity planning challenges for carriers that had anticipated a late‑summer rush, potentially leading to under‑utilised sailings or the need to adjust service rotations. At the same time, US importers are taking a cautious approach, placing smaller and more frequent orders while deferring larger commitments until there is greater certainty over the economic outlook and future trade policy.

Until the hidden stock is released and importers regain confidence, the transpacific market is unlikely to see the kind of seasonal uplift typical in past years. Both ocean and air freight providers may need to adapt to a longer‑than‑expected period of muted demand through the remainder of 2025.

Metro’s dedicated air freight team and expanding U.S. presence help shippers navigate shifting transpacific flows with confidence. From capacity management and efficient routing to agile supply chain control and inventory visibility, we keep your air cargo moving smoothly across the Pacific.

Email Managing Director, Andy Smith, to learn more.

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Tighter Transshipment Rules Put Southeast Asia’s Supply Chains Under the Spotlight

Aug 5, 2025 | ,

The latest US trade agreements have introduced tougher measures targeting the rerouting of Chinese goods, reflecting heightened scrutiny on supply chain flows through Southeast Asia.

While these rules are designed to curb “origin washing” — the mislabelling of goods to disguise their true country of origin — the underlying reality is more complex, with genuine production shifts also reshaping regional trade.

Much of the recent manufacturing growth in  Southeast Asia countries including Vietnam and Indonesia stems from legitimate relocation of production, rather than disguised transshipment. Chinese manufacturers, facing steep US tariffs since President Trump’s first term, have increasingly invested in factories across Southeast Asia, seeking competitive labour costs and tariff advantages. This process has enabled these host countries to increase domestic value‑added in exports while reducing reliance on Chinese‑sourced inputs.

In Vietnam, for example, the domestic share of value in strategic exports to the US has risen steadily, driven by sustained foreign investment and capacity building. This mirrors China’s own transformation after joining the WTO, when its foreign content in exports fell significantly over time as local supply chains matured.

The New US Approach to Transshipment
In their recent trade deal President Donald Trump announced a 20% tariff on Vietnam’s exports, but 40% on any “transshipping” of production elsewhere. In the agreement with Jakarta, if there is any rerouting of output from a higher-tariff country, then the evaded duty will be added to the 19% rate for Indonesia.

This aims to prevent goods subject to heavy US duties from entering the market via a lower‑tariff partner after minimal additional work. In practice, enforcement involves tighter certification regimes, closer customs inspections, and stricter rules of origin documentation.

While legitimate outsourcing is allowed under WTO rules, the US measures blur the line between blocking illegal rerouting and discouraging lawful production relocation. This creates uncertainty for businesses investing in diversified regional supply chains.

Implications for Supply Chain Strategy
The new measures could:

  • Increase compliance costs – Exporters must strengthen origin verification, certification, and documentation to avoid tariff penalties.
  • Slow diversification plans – Firms considering shifting production from China to Southeast Asia may reassess timelines and risk exposure.
  • Disrupt regional supply chains – Interconnected production networks risk being treated as transshipment hubs, even when substantial value is added locally.

For Southeast Asian economies, the challenge lies in demonstrating clear value addition and avoiding the perception of serving as simple conduits for Chinese goods.

If these rules are applied broadly, they could reshape the regional manufacturing landscape. Instead of encouraging investment in new production capacity, the measures may discourage multinational manufacturers from fully committing to Southeast Asia for fear of tariff exposure.

For supply chain planners, this environment demands careful mapping of production footprints, investment in compliance infrastructure, and contingency planning for potential trade disruptions.

Whether you’re already shipping from Southeast Asia, exploring new sourcing options, or committed to shifting production, Metro has the tools and expertise to optimise your supply chain from the region. Our MVT platform delivers vendor management and end‑to‑end visibility, making it easier to manage new supply sources and control inbound inventory.

EMAIL Managing Director, Andrew Smith, today to review your shoring strategy and build a more sustainable, resilient supply chain.

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