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Ocean rates move unevenly as conflict, congestion and pricing strategies reshape the market

Mar 18, 2026 | News, Sea, Supply Chain

Ocean freight spot rates are entering a more volatile phase, as Middle East disruption, port congestion and carrier pricing strategies combine to reshape conditions across the main east–west trade lanes.

Recent market data shows a widening gap between how different trades are performing.

On Asia–Europe routes, spot rates have risen sharply in some cases, with week-on-week increases approaching 20%, while other indices suggest more modest movements of only a few percentage points.

This disparity reflects a market where pricing is no longer moving in a single direction. Instead, shippers are seeing a broad range of rates depending on timing, routing and carrier strategy, with some short-term quotes significantly above prevailing averages.

On the transpacific, the picture remains more subdued. While some indices show modest increases of around 3–5%, underlying demand remains relatively soft, which is limiting upward pressure and keeping overall rate levels more stable.

Although the main east–west trades do not directly transit the Middle East Gulf, the impact of the conflict is feeding into global ocean networks.

The continued disruption to Red Sea and Gulf routing is extending voyage distances and increasing vessel utilisation. This reduces effective capacity across the global fleet, helping to support rates despite relatively cautious demand.

Congestion builds across alternative hubs

As vessels divert away from affected areas, pressure is building at alternative ports across Asia and the wider region.

Transhipment hubs are absorbing higher-than-normal volumes, often arriving on disrupted schedules. This is leading to congestion, longer waiting times and reduced operational efficiency.

The knock-on effect is being felt across supply chains, with delays extending beyond the immediate region and into connecting services on Asia–Europe and intra-Asia routes.

This congestion is also contributing to rate increases, particularly on trades closest to the disruption, where spot pricing has risen by double-digit percentages since the situation escalated.

Carriers adopt firmer pricing strategies

Alongside operational disruption, carrier behaviour is playing a growing role in shaping the market.

Pricing strategies have become more assertive, with carriers introducing higher FAK levels, applying emergency surcharges and taking a firmer approach to contract negotiations. In some cases, new rate levels have been set significantly above recent spot benchmarks, even as softening continues to appear in parts of the market.

Fuel-related and war risk surcharges are also being layered onto base rates, reflecting higher operating costs and increased insurance premiums. This is creating a more complex pricing structure, where total landed costs are less predictable and subject to change at short notice.

Regulatory attention is also increasing, with the FMC in the United States and authorities in China and India signalling the need for greater transparency around pricing and surcharge application.

Short-term support, longer-term uncertainty

In the near term, these combined factors are helping to support ocean freight rates and prevent the sharp declines that might otherwise follow the post-Chinese New Year period.

However, the outlook remains uncertain. Much will depend on how demand develops in the coming weeks and how carriers manage capacity through blank sailings and network adjustments.

If disruption persists, longer sailing distances and ongoing congestion are likely to continue absorbing capacity. At the same time, any sustained weakness in demand could limit how far rates can rise.

For shippers, this creates a market that is not only volatile, but also increasingly difficult to interpret without close visibility of both operational conditions and carrier behaviour.

With rates moving in different directions and pricing structures becoming more complex, clarity is becoming just as important as cost.

Metro works closely with customers to break down market movements, challenge assumptions and identify the most effective routing and pricing strategies across global ocean networks.

If you would like a clearer view of where rates are heading and how to position your supply chain - EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director at Metro, for a detailed, shipment-specific discussion.

Road and road–air solutions gain traction in Middle East disruption

Mar 18, 2026 | Air, Middle East, News, Road, Sea, Supply Chain

As disruption across the Middle East continues to restrict traditional air and ocean routes, shippers are increasingly turning to road and road–air solutions to maintain cargo flow.

What began as a contingency response is now becoming a core part of how supply chains are adapting to a more constrained and fragmented logistics environment.

With vessel access to the Arabian Gulf severely restricted and air capacity reduced, significant volumes of cargo are being redirected onto land-based networks.

Ports such as Khor Fakkan, Fujairah, Sohar and Jeddah are now acting as key entry points, with cargo transferred onto trucks for onward delivery across the Gulf. These corridors are supporting flows into major markets including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain.

However, this shift is placing pressure on overland infrastructure that was not designed to handle such volumes. Trucking demand has risen sharply, leading to capacity shortages on key corridors across Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. As a result, transit times are becoming less predictable and costs are rising in response to increased demand.

At the same time, congestion at contingency ports is extending dwell times, further increasing reliance on inland transport to maintain movement.

Road–air models offer a practical alternative to constrained air freight

As direct air freight capacity remains limited and increasingly expensive, road–air solutions are becoming more widely used.

Cargo is being moved by road to alternative airport gateways outside the most affected areas, where it can reconnect with more stable flight schedules. This approach helps bypass disrupted hubs while maintaining faster transit times than traditional ocean freight.

The model is also being applied on longer-distance routes. In some cases, cargo is being trucked across regions before connecting with onward air services, reflecting a broader shift towards more flexible, hybrid transport solutions.

Demand for these services is increasing as shippers look to balance speed, cost and reliability in a market where traditional options are under pressure.

Operational complexity increases as networks evolve

While these solutions are keeping cargo moving, they also introduce new layers of complexity.

Border crossings, customs processes and security checks are becoming more critical to overall transit time performance. In addition, the rapid scaling of road-based solutions is creating pressure on available capacity, particularly on heavily used corridors.

At the same time, multimodal coordination is becoming more important. Successfully combining road, air and ocean services requires close planning, real-time visibility and the ability to adapt quickly as conditions change.

This is driving greater demand for integrated logistics approaches that can manage multiple transport modes within a single, coordinated solution.

Rather than relying on fixed routes or single modes, businesses are adopting more flexible strategies that allow them to respond to disruption as it develops. This includes using alternative gateways, combining transport modes and building contingency options into their planning.

When traditional routes are under pressure, the ability to switch quickly to practical alternatives becomes critical.

Metro is actively supporting customers with road–air and direct road solutions, combining regional trucking, alternative airport gateways and multimodal coordination to keep cargo moving.

If you are facing delays, capacity constraints or rising air freight costs, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director at Metro, to discuss how road–air or direct road options could support your shipments in the current market.

Cross-Channel rail freight set to strengthen UK–Europe intermodal links

Mar 18, 2026 | 4PL, Automotive, Chemical, Exports, Foodstuffs, Hazardous, Health, Intermodal, News, Publishing, Rail, Retail

Plans to reintroduce regular cross-Channel rail freight services are moving forward, signalling a potential shift in how goods move between the UK and mainland Europe.

As investment in infrastructure gathers pace, rail is re-emerging as a viable complement to established road and sea routes.

A government-backed agreement to redevelop the Barking Eurohub in east London is expected to play a central role in restoring regular rail freight services through the Channel Tunnel.

The site is being positioned as an international logistics hub, supporting intermodal trains that can move containers seamlessly between rail, road and sea. This would enable more direct connections between the UK and key European markets including France, Germany, Italy and Spain.

Currently, only a limited volume of rail freight passes through the Channel Tunnel, with most UK–EU cargo continuing to rely on short sea crossings and onward road transport.

The planned expansion of intermodal rail services is intended to rebalance that model and provide greater flexibility for cross-border supply chains.

Rail offers an alternative to congested road and port networks

The renewed focus on rail comes at a time when road and port infrastructure across the UK and Europe is under increasing pressure.

Shifting a greater share of freight onto rail has the potential to reduce congestion on key corridors in the south-east of England, while also improving transit predictability for certain flows. For shippers, this introduces an additional routing option that sits between road and sea in terms of both speed and cost.

Rail freight volumes have already been growing steadily, with increases of around 5% year on year and further gains in intermodal traffic. Forecasts suggest continued growth over the coming decade, supported by both infrastructure investment and policy commitments to expand rail’s role in the supply chain.

Unlocking new options for UK–Europe trade

The return of regular cross-Channel rail services could create new opportunities for both imports and exports.

For UK businesses, this includes more direct access to European markets for a wide range of goods, as well as improved inbound flows of time-sensitive products such as food and consumer goods. Intermodal rail also offers a more structured and predictable alternative for moving containerised cargo across borders.

However, realising this potential will depend on how effectively rail services are integrated into wider logistics networks. Efficient onward connections, competitive pricing and reliable scheduling will all be critical to making rail a commercially viable option at scale.

Rail is unlikely to replace road or sea, but it can play a valuable role as part of a broader intermodal strategy, particularly for flows that benefit from a balance of speed, cost and sustainability.

This is where coordination becomes critical. Moving containers efficiently between ports, rail terminals and final delivery points requires a joined-up approach across multiple modes and geographies.

Metro has extensive experience in pan-European intermodal transport, combining road, sea and rail solutions, alongside regular UK rail services connecting primary ports with inland destinations.

If you are looking to explore how cross-Channel rail could support your European flows, or how to integrate rail into your wider transport strategy, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director at Metro, for a practical discussion tailored to your network.

US tariff refunds move closer as customs systems adapt to process large-scale repayments

Mar 18, 2026 | 4PL, Automotive, Chemical, Customs, eCommerce, Exports, Foodstuffs, General, Hazardous, Health, International Trade, MVT, News, Project, Publishing, Retail, United States

The process of refunding tariffs to US importers is beginning to take shape following the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down duties imposed under emergency powers.

US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is developing a dedicated system within its Automated Commercial Environment to handle what is expected to be one of the largest refund exercises undertaken by the agency.

The process is being designed around four key stages: claim submission, automated validation and recalculation of duties, review and liquidation, and final refund payment. Importers will be required to submit detailed entry data, which the system will validate before calculating the amounts owed and issuing repayments electronically.

Although progress is being made, the scale of the task remains considerable. Tens of millions of entries are potentially affected, and the volume of data required means the process cannot be implemented immediately. Current timelines suggest the system will take several weeks to become fully operational, with further updates expected as development continues.

Data requirements will increase scrutiny on historical entries

The refund process will require importers to provide a comprehensive dataset covering entries where tariffs were paid. This includes classification details, country of origin, entry numbers, duty amounts and supporting documentation.

As a result, the process is likely to do more than simply return funds. By consolidating this level of information into a single submission, it effectively creates a detailed audit trail of past imports.

For businesses, this increases the importance of data accuracy and consistency. Any discrepancies in classification, valuation or origin could trigger further review, potentially extending timelines or leading to additional compliance checks.

Despite the scale of the opportunity, readiness across the importing community remains relatively low.

Only a small proportion of eligible importers have completed the necessary setup to receive refunds electronically. Until this process is finalised, any payments issued may be rejected, delaying recovery of funds.

At the same time, recent changes to US customs requirements mean that more detailed shipment information is already being requested earlier in the import process. Combined with the refund requirements, this is increasing the administrative burden on importers.

Submitting claims without fully validating the underlying data may expose businesses to additional scrutiny. Conversely, delaying preparation could result in slower access to funds once the system becomes fully operational.

This creates a balance between speed and compliance, where careful preparation is likely to be the most effective strategy.

Technology and expertise will play a critical role

Given the volume of entries and the level of detail required, technology is expected to play an increasingly important role in managing the process.

Automated systems can help organise entry data, validate submissions and identify inconsistencies before claims are filed. At the same time, experienced customs oversight remains essential to ensure that filings are accurate and aligned with regulatory requirements.

For many importers, this combination of technology and expertise will be key to navigating what is likely to be a complex and closely monitored process.

The tariff refund process presents a clear financial opportunity, but it also requires careful handling of data, compliance and submission timing.

Metro combines its US presence, local customs brokerage expertise and advanced systems, including its AI and machine-learning powered CuDoS platform, to support the CBP refund process - helping customers prepare accurate, compliant claims.

If you want to understand what you may be owed and how to approach the refund process with confidence, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director at Metro, to discuss how Metro’s US customs team can support your submission strategy.

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