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Supply Chain Leaders Wary of Unprecedented Risks

Aug 19, 2025 | , , , ,

The Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS) has published its Q2 2025 Pulse Survey, and the findings paint a sobering picture for global supply chains.

Procurement leaders are reporting their highest-ever levels of concern about disruption, with anxieties around shipping costs, fuel prices, and the risk of shortages intensifying as tariff battles and geopolitical shocks reshape trade flows.

The survey shows record disruption warnings for both the short and long term. On a 1–7 scale, short-term concern rose to 4.57, up from 4.36 in Q1, while 12-month concern increased to 5.03, also the highest on record. According to CIPS CEO Ben Farrell, procurement professionals are “operating in uncharted waters” where disruption is no longer a possibility but a certainty and the only unknowns are when and where it will strike.

Logistics is once again at the top of the risk list. Nearly a quarter of procurement leaders now expect shipping and transport costs to rise by more than 10%, placing supply chains under further strain. Fuel and petroleum-based inputs were ranked equally high, while pharmaceuticals, food, and metals were also highlighted as categories facing sharp increases. The concern is not just about higher costs but about continuity of supply, with CIPS economist Dr John Glen warning of a “perfect storm” created by tariff upheaval and Middle East instability that threatens to squeeze already stretched logistics networks.

Geopolitics remains the dominant source of risk. More than half of survey respondents pointed to conflicts in the Middle East and the disruption of shipping routes, while concern over the US–China trade conflict has surged to 36%, up sharply from 25% in Q1. When asked to rank their organisation’s broader worries, 66% cited political or geopolitical instability. The highest level ever recorded in the Pulse survey. Supplier fragility and logistics disruption also climbed, while inflation fell as a top concern, suggesting a shift from price volatility to fears over actual availability.

In response, procurement leaders are continuing to pursue strategies such as supplier diversification, stockpiling, and longer contracts. But confidence in these measures is beginning to weaken, with scores slipping since Q1, perhaps reflecting a sense that resilience planning is reaching its limits. As one respondent remarked, “From shipping lanes to silicon chips, no category is safe from disruption.”

The message from the Pulse survey is clear: procurement professionals remain the early warning system of the global economy, and right now, their alarm bells are ringing louder than ever.

With disruption expected as a certainty rather than a possibility, knee-jerk reactive measures are no longer enough. What procurement leaders need is real-time visibility, control, and agility across every stage of their supply chain.

Metro’s proprietary platform, MVT, unifies procurement, freight, inventory, and logistics into one connected system. By tracking milestones in real time, integrating with ERP and sales platforms, and enabling data-led decisions, MVT gives businesses the insight and agility to mitigate risks before they escalate.

Backed by Metro’s global reach, sector expertise, and fully integrated services, MVT is the backbone of scalable, future-ready supply chains, helping organisations navigate tariff upheaval, geopolitical shocks, and rising logistics costs with confidence.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to discover how MVT can give you total control of your supply chain.

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H1 2025: Six Developments Reshaping Global Trade

Aug 19, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The first half of 2025 has been one of the most turbulent periods for supply chains in recent memory. From renewed tariff wars to fresh geopolitical flashpoints, logistics professionals have had to contend with a constantly shifting landscape.

At the same time, structural challenges around skills, safety, and sustainability have continued to grow. Here we review six developments that defined H1 2025.

1. Tariffs return to the fore
The pause in US tariff escalation ended in August, with the White House reintroducing “reciprocal” tariffs that apply baseline duties of 10% to all countries and higher rates of 10–41% depending on origin. The UK sit at the low end, while Syria faces the steepest levels. Brazil has been singled out further, hit by an additional 40% levy. Canada also saw tariffs raised from 25% to 35% on certain goods, justified by Washington’s claim that Ottawa has not done enough to curb fentanyl flows.

The executive order applies from 7 August 2025, with a grace period allowing cargo already loaded onto vessels before that date to arrive until 5 October 2025. To add complexity, US Customs will also impose new fees on Chinese-built or operated vessels from 14 October, potentially forcing alliances such as the Ocean Alliance into costly fleet reshuffles. Carriers are already working through how to redeploy capacity to avoid penalties, with COSCO and OOCL particularly exposed.

2. New shipping alliances reshape networks
The recomposition of global shipping alliances in Q1 has reshaped carrier strategies. The launch of the Gemini Cooperation between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd marked one of the most significant realignments in recent years, focused on achieving 90%+ schedule reliability. Shippers are already seeing more dependable services, but questions remain about whether premium pricing will follow.

Other alliances, particularly Ocean and THE Alliance (now Premier Alliance), are recalibrating networks, with competition sharpening across Asia–Europe and transpacific trades. For shippers, the alliance changes mean rethinking service contracts and adapting to new network structures that could endure for much of the decade.

3. Houthi attacks deepen Red Sea crisis
The Red Sea crisis, triggered by Houthi rebel attacks, has now stretched on for nearly two years. In July 2025 the threat escalated further with the sinking of the Magic Seas, a Greek-operated vessel targeted for its links to companies calling at Israeli ports. Analysis suggests that one in six vessels globally could now be considered threatened under the Houthis’ broad definition of violators.

For container lines, this effectively rules out a return to Suez Canal routings before 2026 — and possibly not until 2027. Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds up to two weeks to Asia–Europe journeys, pushing up costs and insurance premiums, and putting additional strain on fleet capacity. The Red Sea instability has been a reminder of how localised conflicts can have global consequences for supply chains.

4. Logistics skills shortages persist
The UK continues to face a significant shortfall in logistics skills, with the Road Haulage Association estimating a deficit of around 50,000 HGV drivers. The ONS also reports 6,000 fewer courier and delivery drivers than the previous year. With 55% of HGV drivers aged between 50 and 65, the demographic imbalance remains a long-term concern.

Factors include reduced access to EU workers post-Brexit, poor industry perception, and limited uptake of government training schemes. Although the crisis is not as acute as during the height of the pandemic, the ageing workforce and lack of young entrants mean structural shortages will continue. Rising wage costs, recruitment struggles, and bottlenecks in road transport all add to the burden on UK supply chains.

5. EV shipping challenges raise alarm
The growth of electric vehicle (EV) trade has created new safety risks at sea. Several high-profile fires on car carriers have been linked to lithium-ion batteries, sparking concern among insurers, regulators, and shipowners. Insurers are pushing for tougher loading protocols, enhanced crew training, and more advanced fire suppression systems.

For supply chains, this adds cost and complexity to automotive logistics, with carriers facing higher insurance premiums and the need to retrofit vessels. It is also slowing the momentum of EV exports, just as demand for cleaner vehicles accelerates globally.

6. Sustainability regulations tighten
Sustainability regulation is reshaping procurement strategies. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is beginning to impact trade in carbon-intensive products such as steel, aluminium, and cement, with importers required to report embedded emissions.

At the same time, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is moving toward a tipping point. UK and EU mandates are pushing airlines to integrate SAF into their fuel mix, with new investments underway to scale production.

While tariffs and geopolitics grab headlines, sustainability is quietly becoming a decisive factor in supplier choice, cost structures, and long-term resilience planning. For many organisations, compliance with emissions and ESG frameworks is no longer optional but critical.

Outlook
H1 2025 has exposed the vulnerability of supply chains to political shocks, armed conflict, safety risks, and structural labour shortages. Tariffs, alliances, and attacks have disrupted networks, while long-term challenges around sustainability and skills remain unresolved.

The message for supply chain leaders is clear: resilience, agility, and visibility will be critical in the second half of 2025, as disruption becomes the new normal.

H1 2025 has underlined how vulnerable global supply chains have become and staying ahead demands visibility, expertise, and a trusted partner by your side.

Metro’s account management team works proactively with customers to anticipate risks, share insights, and design solutions that are resilient and adaptable to change.

Our expertise encompasses dangerous goods and lithium battery shipping, customs, and multimodal freight, backed by a strong people strategy that includes apprenticeships, engagement programmes, and our Great Place to Work certification.

We are also leading the way on sustainability. Metro has been carbon neutral for five years, pioneering the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), while our MVT ECO platform helps businesses forecast, measure, and offset emissions across their global supply chains.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to learn how Metro can build resilience into your supply chain.

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Asian Cargo Surge Threatens to Overwhelm North Europe Ports

Aug 5, 2025 | , , , , ,

North Europe’s container gateways face a turbulent August and September as a surge of inbound cargo from Asia collides with already stretched terminal operations.

Strong import demand through the first half of the year has driven double‑digit growth in volumes, with the peak season now set to push many ports to breaking point.

For months, operators have battled chronic congestion, with delayed vessel arrivals throwing schedules into disarray and container yards struggling under sustained high occupancy. The anticipated wave of summer imports will magnify these pressures, raising the risk of longer delays and service disruption well into the autumn.

Rising volumes, falling reliability
Exports from Asia to Europe have maintained strong growth into the second half, with China–EU shipments in particular climbing at a double‑digit rate year‑on‑year. This pattern typically sees July sailings arrive in Europe through August and September, concentrating peak loads into an already fragile network.

Schedule reliability has deteriorated sharply. On‑time arrivals for Asia–North Europe services have dropped from more than two‑fifths in May to less than one‑third in July. Larger vessels deployed to circumvent southern Africa are adding to the strain, extending berth stays and raising yard utilisation. Prolonged transit times are feeding greater volatility and unpredictability across the supply chain.

Not all ports are equally affected, but the most severe congestion has been concentrated at London Gateway, Antwerp, Hamburg, and Rotterdam. Antwerp and Hamburg are further hampered by high barge delays, worsened by low water levels restricting inland waterway capacity. Some gateways still report healthy throughput, yet overall capacity buffers are now minimal.

Carrier work‑arounds
Lines are adjusting strategies to ease bottlenecks. Some are replacing transhipment legs with direct calls to Scandinavian ports, reducing container moves by two‑thirds on certain routes. Others are diverting volumes away from heavily congested hubs or shifting calls to less‑utilised terminals such as Le Havre, Zeebrugge, Bremerhaven, and Wilhelmshaven.

Carriers are also moving boxes from deep‑sea terminals into inland depots to free yard space, although low Rhine water levels continue to limit barge utilisation. With inland capacity already tight, this offers only partial relief.

While tactical adjustments may prevent a complete choke‑point, the outlook for the remainder of the summer remains challenging. Persistent high demand, combined with limited progress in clearing congestion, suggests the sector will remain under pressure until at least the final quarter of the year.

Metro’s sea freight teams are actively monitoring port performance, vessel schedules, and rate movements across all major trade lanes. We work with customers to secure priority bookings, optimise equipment and container allocation, and design alternative routings to avoid bottlenecks and minimise disruption.

Email Managing Director, Andrew Smith, to discuss current market conditions, risk‑mitigation strategies, and booking solutions tailored to your business priorities.

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Transatlantic Air Cargo: Calm Surface, Hidden Currents

Jul 22, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The transatlantic air cargo market may appear steady, with stable capacity and rates, but beneath this surface calm, subtle shifts are reshaping flows, costs, and opportunities, especially on niche routes like Canada–Europe and Mexico–Europe.

While wide-body and freighter capacity from Europe to North America has edged up around 2% so far this year, the opposite direction has slipped by about 1%. Recent months, however, reveal sharp month-on-month jumps, with capacity from Canada to Europe up 14%, and Europe to Canada up 16%. Airlines like Air Canada and Air France-KLM have expanded significantly, while others have held or slightly reduced services.

The capacity surge on Canada–Europe routes coincides with the summer holiday season, boosting passenger belly-hold space. But freight data points to something more: flown tonnages from Europe to Canada jumped around 10% in early July compared with the previous three weeks, though without a corresponding rise in average rates…yet.

On the pricing front, the top end of spot rates between Canada and the UK nearly doubled at the end of June, while France–Canada rates also climbed sharply. Strengthening UK–Canada trade ties, including the UK’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), are likely adding further momentum, potentially lifting logistics demand across both ocean and air freight.

Elsewhere, European exporters have seen steady or rising air cargo flows to North America:

– Italy has boosted air exports to the US by over one-third, focusing on fashion goods.
– France has lifted exports by nearly half, driven by luxury and pharmaceuticals.
– Norway fish exports to the US have surged over 50%.
– Ireland, concerned about possible US tariffs on pharmaceuticals, has seen air rates to the US climb since May, with sharper increases in July.

Softening Signs, But Cautious Optimism
Overall, transatlantic rates have eased with the arrival of summer and additional belly capacity, particularly on mainline Europe–US routes. Expect stable or slightly reduced spot pricing, typical for this seasonal slack period. However, some airlines are expressing optimism for the second half, buoyed by promising early signals from peak season negotiations.

A delayed US tariff deadline (now 1 August) and new trade measures affecting partners like Japan and South Korea could prompt a short-term wave of airfreight “front-loading.” Longer-term, shifting freighter capacity from Pacific routes toward the transatlantic may rebalance the market, while the removal of US de minimis import exemptions will reshape eCommerce flows into the US.

While today’s transatlantic air cargo market may seem subdued, pockets of demand and policy uncertainty are quietly stirring the waters. Shippers need to be agile to capture emerging opportunities and be prepared for the unexpected.

Metro’s dedicated air freight team and expanding U.S. presence help shippers navigate shifting transatlantic flows with confidence. From capacity management and multimodal routing, to agile supply chain management and inventory visibility, we keep your air cargo moving smoothly — across the Atlantic and around the world. EMAIL our Managing Director, Andy Smith, to learn more.

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