China exports

US-China Tariff Pause Offers Fashion Breathing Space

May 13, 2025 | , , , , , , , , ,

Fashion brands and retailers around the world have welcomed a temporary easing of tensions between the US and China, but remain wary of the wider uncertainty still gripping global supply chains.

A 90-day agreement announced on Monday May 12 will, from May 14, reduce US tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and cut Chinese tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%. While the move has offered immediate relief, industry bodies warn it does little to address the long-term challenges facing the fashion sector.

The announcement sparked a wave of activity as brands reinstated production orders they had previously paused. The high tariff levels had forced many companies to cancel orders, divert production to Vietnam, Cambodia, and Sri Lanka, or slow shipments into the US and Europe. The easing of duties now gives brands the opportunity to fulfil autumn and holiday orders with a degree of cost certainty, albeit only for a limited window.

Trade associations remain cautious. The Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America called the agreement “a step in the right direction” but emphasised that even the reduced 30% tariff remains a significant burden. The fashion industry, with its typically thin margins, has found it difficult to absorb such additional costs. Retailers and importers warn that prices will inevitably be passed onto consumers, fuelling inflationary pressures across apparel and footwear categories.

The American Apparel & Footwear Association (AAFA) noted that this tariff rate applies in addition to any existing duties and customs fees, potentially pushing total charges on certain items to around 50%. Smaller brands, in particular, lack the scale to mitigate these costs and are likely to face greater challenges.

The agreement doesn’t not reverse the abrupt end of the de minimis exemption, which previously allowed shipments valued at <$800 to enter the US duty free. Fast fashion and eCommerce platforms that relied on this customs regime have been forced to rethink their business models.

Retailers may now attempt to bulk-ship goods to US warehouses during the 90-day window to avoid further disruption.

Supply chain experts say the fashion industry will continue to face high levels of uncertainty. The temporary nature of the deal, coupled with the risk of retaliatory tariffs on goods from countries like Vietnam and Cambodia, means many brands are proceeding with extreme caution. Some analysts warn that if brands rush to resume production, a surge in orders could overwhelm manufacturers and create a cargo capacity crunch, pushing air and ocean freight rates even higher.

The longer-term outlook remains unclear. Fashion companies continue to seek more flexible and diversified sourcing strategies, hedging against the risks of geopolitical instability. Industry leaders have urged policymakers to use the current window to work towards a permanent, predictable trading framework.

For now, the temporary tariff pause has delivered short-term relief, but it is widely viewed as a fragile reprieve rather than a definitive resolution. As one trade association put it, fashion brands will “enjoy this time” but remain braced for further twists in the turbulent global trade environment.

With decades of experience supporting leading fashion brands and retailers, we understand the unique demands of global fashion supply chains. EMAIL Andy Smith, Managing Director, to navigate today’s uncertainty and optimise your international logistics and sourcing strategy with confidence.

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March Airfreight Surge Sets Stage for Further Growth as US-China Trade Tensions Ease

May 13, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Airfreight markets posted a record performance in March, with particularly strong activity on Asia, US, Europe and UK trade lanes. The surge, driven by shippers front-loading cargo ahead of anticipated US tariffs, has provided a benchmark for what could follow in the months ahead as recent tariff reductions between the US and China hint at a renewed spike in activity.

According to IATA, global demand measured in cargo tonne-kilometres rose by 4.4% year-on-year, with international cargo traffic increasing by 5.5%. Capacity, meanwhile, increased by a similar margin, helping to stabilise load factors despite the sudden surge in volumes. Asia-Pacific carriers led growth with a 9.6% rise in demand and an 11% increase in available capacity. North American airlines recorded a 9.5% increase in volumes, while European carriers posted a more moderate rise.

Asia-North America remained the largest and fastest-growing trade lane by market share, as exporters sought to avoid the sharp rise in tariffs. The Europe-North America route also experienced strong activity and was the busiest overall in March, underpinned by steady intra-European demand which grew by 2%.

The operating environment provided further stimulus, with world industrial output and global trade volumes expanding by just under 3%. Falling energy costs provided additional support, with jet fuel prices down for the ninth consecutive month. Inflation rates also stabilised across key markets, providing additional certainty for international shippers. China’s deflationary environment also showed signs of softening, with the rate improving to just below zero.

The result was a sharp escalation in demand from sectors that rely on rapid supply chains and cannot risk ocean freight delays. Electronics, high fashion, automotive and perishable goods were among the leading commodities contributing to the increased volumes.

The extraordinary March performance may not remain an isolated event. The recent temporary US-China tariff reduction has the potential to trigger another wave of increased airfreight activity.

While the extent of future growth will depend on how negotiations between the world’s two largest economies unfold, the easing of tariffs has already bolstered market sentiment.

However, market analysts note that after the March peak, demand may return to more typical seasonal levels in the short term, particularly as capacity has increased by over 6% on international routes, offering more space for shippers. Yet, the fundamental reliance on airfreight for high-value and time-critical shipments between Asia, the US, Europe and the UK remains unchanged.

Should trade relations between the US and China continue to thaw, the market could be poised for another significant uplift in volumes. The key will be whether the current political stability translates into sustained confidence among exporters and freight forwarders across these critical trade lanes.

With airfreight demand surging and tariffs in flux, now is the time to optimise your supply chain strategy. EMAIL Elliot Carlile, Operations Director, to explore how we can help you secure space and streamline your international shipments.

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India and Pakistan Impose Cargo Bans

May 13, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The fragile balance of South Asia’s supply chain network has been thrown into disarray after India and Pakistan imposed tit-for-tat bans on each other’s cargo.

The diplomatic standoff, triggered by recent violence in Kashmir and subsequent military exchanges, has sent shockwaves through ocean freight and air cargo networks, with the full extent of disruption still unfolding.

The restrictions have led to widespread delays and rerouting of vessels. India’s decision to prohibit ships carrying Pakistani cargo from docking at its ports has forced carriers to divert to transhipment hubs such as Colombo, creating congestion and adding time and cost.

Pakistan’s blanket ban on Indian goods in response has only compounded the uncertainty. Vessels already en route have been left scrambling for alternative discharge options, while planned schedules are being hastily redrawn.

Space shortages are emerging on regional sailings as shipping lines juggle altered rotations. Delays have rippled into feeder services and inland supply chains, resulting in longer transit times and missed delivery windows. Importers with urgent supply chain needs, such as fast fashion and electronics, face particular challenges as they attempt to secure scarce space at short notice.

The congestion has already pushed freight rates higher, with emergency surcharges now being levied on Pakistan-bound cargo by some carriers. We expect other shipping lines to follow suit as the cost of rerouting and delays continues to mount. Rates out of India, which had been steadily rising in the weeks prior to the crisis, are now expected to surge further.

The disruption has also spilled into the air cargo sector. Major airlines have started diverting flights to avoid Pakistan’s airspace, leading to longer flight times, higher fuel costs, and mounting pressure on capacity across Asia-Europe and Asia-US routes.

While two-way trade between India and Pakistan is relatively small, the standoff has had far wider implications. Third-country shipments caught between the two jurisdictions have been caught up in the diplomatic crossfire, with containers stranded or forced to take circuitous routes at significant extra cost.

With no immediate diplomatic solution in sight, supply chain stakeholders are preparing for ongoing uncertainty. Carriers are assessing whether to restructure service loops or add additional calls to alternative ports such as Jebel Ali to minimise customer disruption. However, the fallout comes on top of existing challenges, including ongoing Red Sea-related delays and persistent global port congestion.

The bans underline how geopolitical flashpoints can rapidly cascade into global supply chain instability. For cargo owners and logistics providers, the India-Pakistan crisis is a stark reminder of the need for flexible routing strategies and contingency planning in an era of growing geopolitical risk.

Geopolitical tensions and unexpected port bans can severely disrupt supply chains, as the India-Pakistan cargo restrictions have shown. In these uncertain times, it is critical for cargo owners to ensure that their marine insurance policies are robust and offer continuity of cover under all circumstances. We strongly advise all shippers to review the fine print and clauses of their insurance to avoid costly gaps in protection.

At Metro, we can help you safeguard your supply chain and navigate today’s complex global shipping environment with confidence. EMAIL Andy Smith, Managing Director, to discuss how we can support your business with risk management strategies, secure freight solutions, and expert guidance on marine insurance best practices.

Hong Kong X ray costs and delay fears

Transpacific Air and Sea Downturns amid Capacity Volatility

Apr 29, 2025 | , , , , ,

As demand falters on both sides of the transpacific, container and air freight flows are facing extreme volatility, with sharp drops in bookings and vessel space coinciding with sweeping tariff changes and regulatory disruptions.

The number of blanked sailings has surged, with the share of Asia–North America West Coast blanked capacity more than doubling in a week, reaching nearly 30% by late April. On East Coast routes, blank sailings jumped to over 40% of planned capacity by early May. These cancellations mirror typical post-holiday slowdowns but have appeared abruptly and without the usual lead time, suggesting a reactionary market driven by plummeting demand.

The root cause lies in a sharp reduction in shipping volumes as US firms halt sourcing and bookings ahead of tariff implementations. Bookings for truck delivery or pick-up in the US have fallen by over 40% month-on-month, with some regions seeing drops as steep as 60%.

Elevated volumes in March, driven by front-loading ahead of tariff deadlines, briefly clogged US ports and inland rail hubs. That surge has since collapsed into a dramatic slowdown, with analysts warning that once global trade conditions stabilise, a sharp rebound in demand could overwhelm logistics networks, triggering widespread delays and pushing up costs. A similar scenario played out during the pandemic, when container rates soared fourfold and a surge in inbound volumes led to vessel backlogs and port gridlock.

While a steep trough dominates the short-term picture, there is growing concern that once inventory is depleted, a spike in import orders later in the year could overwhelm supply chains again, especially if companies rely too heavily on ad hoc bookings and lose access to planned space.

In air freight, the outlook is equally challenging. Growth forecasts have been revised downward in response to the end of the de minimis duty exemption on low-value imports from China on May 2. Previously expected to grow up to 7.4% this year, air cargo is now forecast to contract slightly or, at best, remain flat.

Volumes from China and Hong Kong to the US have declined for four consecutive weeks, down 16% compared to the same period last year. While some Southeast Asian countries, like Vietnam, Taiwan and Thailand, have posted gains, it has not been enough to offset overall transpacific weakness. Air freight rates from Asia to the US have fallen by 8%, with steeper declines from certain markets, such as Vietnam, down 28%.

The rollout of new customs processes in the US is adding further complexity, with low-value shipments from China previously exempt under de minimis rules now facing steep duties, with some goods increasing in price by over 160%. Manual duty calculations are placing additional strain on customs brokers, particularly as the US Customs & Border Protection’s automated system struggles to cope with last-minute updates.

Together, these developments point to a precarious outlook. The shipping slowdown may offer temporary relief from congestion, but structural challenges remain. The combined effect of trade policy shifts, operational uncertainty, and fluctuating demand could see supply chains once again thrown into disarray if and when volumes rebound sharply in the second half of the year.

With cancelled sailings, falling volumes, and shifting demand patterns, pressure on global supply chains is growing. At Metro, we provide integrated sea and air freight solutions that deliver the certainty you need, whatever the market throws at you.

From fixed-rate ocean agreements that protect against volatility, to agile air freight strategies with secured capacity and competitive rates, we help you stay on schedule and in control.

EMAIL Andy Smith, Managing Director, to explore how Metro can strengthen your supply chain across both modes.

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