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The Roller Coaster Ride Continues

Feb 19, 2025 | , , , ,

The foreign exchange (FX) market has always been highly sensitive to political and economic events, and 2025 has been no exception. Recent data releases on both sides of the Atlantic have fuelled fluctuations in the GBP to USD exchange rate, making for a volatile start to the year.

Over the past few weeks, GBP/USD has oscillated between periods of relative stability and significant movement. As of the time of writing, the exchange rate stands at approximately 1.26 USD per GBP, a notable rebound from the early January lows of 1.21, with some vessel exchange rates even dipping to 1.19 or lower.

The Fall: Early January 2025
Several factors contributed to the pound’s decline against the dollar in early 2025:

  • US economic strength: Strong job growth and retail sales supported the USD, increasing investor confidence and driving dollar appreciation.
  • Interest rate policies: The Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates, alongside a more cautious stance from the Bank of England, weighed on the pound.
  • Weak UK economic data: Lower-than-expected GDP growth and disappointing retail sales figures further eroded confidence in the pound, leading to increased pressure on GBP/USD.

The Rebound: Post 18th January 2025
A reversal in fortunes saw GBP/USD recover from its lows, supported by a shift in economic and political dynamics:

  • Improved UK economic indicators: Better-than-expected GDP growth and strong retail sales provided a much-needed boost to sterling.
  • Mixed US economic data: A slowdown in US retail sales and concerns about weakening consumer demand cast doubt over the sustainability of the dollar’s strength.
  • US political uncertainty: The shifting political landscape in the US, particularly discussions around fiscal policies and trade relations, increased market uncertainty. Trump’s renewed focus on reciprocal tariffs has raised concerns over trade disruptions, denting investor confidence in the USD.

Navigating Volatility
The recent GBP/USD fluctuations illustrate how tariff speculations, economic releases, and political developments can significantly impact FX markets. While trade concerns remain a major driver of sentiment, broader macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy decisions are also playing a crucial role in shaping currency movements.

Investors and traders will continue to monitor key data releases, central bank signals, and policy announcements to navigate what remains an uncertain and fast-moving market.

Market Outlook
Looking ahead, the GBP/USD exchange rate is likely to remain highly sensitive to economic data, political shifts, and central bank policies. The interplay between economic fundamentals and policy decisions will continue to drive currency volatility, with no signs of simplification in sight.

Staying ahead of exchange rate movements can make all the difference to your business and while no one can predict the future of FX movements, at Metro we continuously monitor market trends, trade policies, and economic shifts to help businesses mitigate risks and seize opportunities.

By closely tracking currency fluctuations and global trade indicators, we provide insights that empower you to make the informed, strategic decisions that will protect your supply chain.

EMAIL Laurence Burford, Chief Financial Officer, for personalised insights and recommendations.

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US and India growth strategies

Feb 19, 2025 | , , , , , , , ,

Recent senior executive visits to the United States and India reinforce Metro’s strategic partnerships, enhance trade opportunities and positioning the company for continued global growth in 2025.

With international trade facing shifting policies, evolving supply chain dynamics, and increasingly demanding compliance solutions, Metro is strengthening its international footprint to provide clients with seamless, efficient and reliable logistics services worldwide.  

Expanding Metro’s presence in the US

CEO Grant Liddell and Managing Director Andy Smith recently concluded a two-week visit to key clients, partners, and carriers across the United States. These meetings focused on developing new trade lanes, enhancing service offerings, and optimising routes from the US into Metro’s global network.

One of the key outcomes of the visit was the decision to establish a dedicated sales platform within the US, Metro Global USA. This expansion will strengthen Metro’s local presence and allow the company to support clients and partners more effectively in this crucial market.

With North America remaining a priority market, Metro is also collaborating with carriers, ports, and airports to ensure optimised routes and enhanced operational efficiencies. As the global trade landscape shifts, closer alignment between Metro and US-based partners will be critical to navigating new challenges and opportunities.

The US/UK trade balance in goods is evenly matched and hopes are high that a comprehensive US/UK trade agreement could provide stability, boost trade, and remove barriers to growth.

Both economies share similar structures and ambitions, making further collaboration a natural progression. A deepened trade and investment agreement could unlock new opportunities for Metro’s clients, ensuring more predictable and streamlined transatlantic logistics solutions.

Scaling up Metro’s India operations

Metro’s expansion in India is also gathering momentum, with Director Tom Fernihough and COO Chris Gavin recently completing a multi-city visit to clients, partners, and Metro’s Indian headquarters in Chennai (MISC Chennai).

With India’s economy on track to become the world’s third largest by 2050, Metro is capitalising on the country’s growing manufacturing and export capabilities by scaling up its operations and investing in new infrastructure.

During the visit, Metro executives secured additional facilities, expanded recruitment efforts, and initiated plans to establish Metro Global India. This new entity will include an operational and physical handling centre dedicated to a key client manufacturing across the country, increasing Metro’s local headcount to a level comparable with the UK.

With UK exports to India valued at £16.6 billion and total trade reaching £42 billion last year, the revival of India-UK free trade talks presents substantial opportunities. A trade deal would enhance Metro’s ability to facilitate faster, more cost-effective logistics solutions for clients engaged in UK-India commerce.

As India’s role in global supply chains grows, Metro’s investment in local expertise and infrastructure will enable clients to benefit from seamless trade flows, reduced lead times, and enhanced supply chain resilience.

Metro’s evolving global network

By reinforcing existing relationships and forging new ones, Metro ensures that clients benefit from a global network that delivers efficiency, reliability, and strategic advantage.

Combining global reach with local expertise, ensures that clients always have access to tailored, best-in-class supply chain solutions in every location, no matter how complex the challenge.  Consistent investment in key markets, digital capabilities, and operational scalability will position Metro as a leader in global logistics, helping businesses thrive in an unpredictable trade environment.

To explore how Metro’s partnerships can support your business needs, please EMAIL Peter Orange for more information.

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Seven supply chain shocks in seven weeks

Feb 19, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Just seven weeks into 2025, global supply chains have already faced a whirlwind of challenges.

From industrial action to trade barriers and shifting alliances, businesses must stay agile to navigate ongoing disruptions. Here are seven of the most impactful developments so far this year.

1. US east coast port strike averted (8th January)
A major disruption was narrowly avoided as the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a tentative six-year agreement. The deal, approved on 7 February, prevented a strike that could have crippled US east coast ports for months. A final vote on 25 February will confirm its ratification.

2. Uncertainty over Suez Canal return (19th January)
Despite a fragile ceasefire in Gaza, container ships will not be returning to the Red Sea anytime soon. Carriers remain cautious, fearing renewed instability and prioritising the established Cape of Good Hope diversions. Even if ships do resume transit, severe disruption is expected, with schedules taking up to two months to stabilise.

3. Trump’s trade policies spark concerns (20th January)
Following his inauguration, President Trump swiftly reignited trade tensions, threatening tariffs on Colombia, China, Canada, and Mexico. Proposals include a 25% levy on steel and aluminium from Canada and Mexico, with reciprocal tariffs also being considered for UK imports. The potential trade war could have widespread consequences for global supply chains.

4. US air cargo demand under threat (1st February)
Trump’s decision to impose a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports and temporarily suspend the de minimis exemption for low-value Chinese shipments has sent shockwaves through the air freight sector. While the exemption was reinstated, changes to eCommerce regulations could significantly disrupt air cargo flows into the US, which is expected to receive 1.4 billion eCommerce packages this year.

5. New Asia shipping alliances reshape trade (2nd February)
The long-anticipated shift from three major container alliances (Ocean, THEA, 2M) to four key players (Ocean, Premier, Gemini, MSC) is now in effect. Asia-North Europe scheduled liner capacity will shrink by 11%, yet the number of weekly sailings will increase from 26 to 28. These changes will reshape global shipping networks for years to come.

6. European road freight rates stabilising (4th February)
After three years of decline, European road freight spot rates may have hit their lowest point. According to the European Road Freight Rate Benchmark, spot rates fell just 1% year-on-year in Q4 2024. While demand remains weak, cost pressures have kept rates 15% above pre-pandemic levels, with short-term volatility expected.

7. Carriers cut sailings to stabilise rates (14th February)
Shipping lines are aggressively blanking sailings to ease the transition to new alliance schedules and sustain freight rates. Between 17 February and 23 March, 51 sailings have been cancelled across key east-west trade routes, with February’s cancellations rising to 133 from 104 in January. Further capacity withdrawals and a general rate increase (GRI) could follow if demand fails to recover.

With trade disputes, shipping realignments, and geopolitical instability shaping global supply chains, the first quarter of 2025 has already presented significant challenges.

Staying ahead requires proactive strategy adjustments to mitigate risks and build resilience. That’s why we share these insights and why your Metro account management team is always by your side, ready to provide expert advice, share knowledge, and develop bespoke solutions tailored to your supply chain needs.

For high-level support, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director.

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Uncertainty grows as US tariffs target China

Feb 5, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

While last-minute negotiations resulted in a temporary reprieve for Canadian and Mexican imports, President Trump’s new tariffs on Chinese goods from the 4th February have already triggered retaliation, adding further pressure to international supply chains.

US tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports have been put on hold for at least 30 days following security commitments from both nations. This delay offers temporary relief for critical trade lanes, including automotive components, electronics, and pharmaceuticals.

Canada has pledged increased border enforcement measures, including new personnel and surveillance technology, while Mexico has committed to deploying additional forces to its border. These actions have led to a pause in tariffs, but shippers should remain cautious as negotiations continue, with the risk of duties being reinstated if agreements are not finalised by March.

The US administration has implemented an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports and in response China has introduced tariffs of up to 15% on selected US goods and imposed export controls, affecting critical technologies such as solar cell production. While these measures appear targeted, they contribute to an increasingly volatile trade environment, forcing businesses to reconsider sourcing strategies and logistics solutions.

US prepares further trade restrictions

Beyond tariffs, the US is tightening its stance on eCommerce imports by getting ready to suspend the de minimis exemption for shipments from China, as soon as adequate systems are in place to fully and expediently process and collect tariff revenue. Previously, goods valued under $800 could enter the US duty-free, but the removal of this exemption would be expected to severely impact cross-border eCommerce air cargo volumes.

In addition, new regulations, announced by US Customs and Border Protection, introduce additional filing requirements, increasing administrative burdens on online retailers and logistics providers. However, analysts suggest that while higher costs may impact some importers, consumer demand is unlikely to diminish significantly, given the relatively low average value of eCommerce purchases.

With ongoing negotiations between the US, Canada, and Mexico, and China’s measured response to tariffs, industry leaders remain cautiously optimistic. However, agility will be essential in navigating evolving trade policies and regulatory changes. As new agreements are brokered and tensions shift, shippers must remain adaptable to mitigate risks and capitalise on emerging opportunities.

As global trade policies shift and new tariffs reshape supply chains, proactive planning is more critical than ever. At Metro, we leverage award-winning services and deep industry expertise to help businesses navigate evolving trade barriers, regulatory changes, and supply chain disruptions.

Whether you need to mitigate the impact of tariffs, ensure compliance with new regulations, or adapt sourcing/export strategies, our tailored solutions keep your supply chain resilient and competitive.

EMAIL Andy Smith, Managing Director, today to explore how Metro can safeguard your supply chain and support your business in 2025 and beyond.

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