us china tradewar

US Tariff Developments and Global Trade Reactions

Further to our recent update on the major changes to US tariffs (link), the global trade landscape remains highly fluid, with the situation evolving rapidly.

Last Wednesday, 2nd April, President Donald Trump announced a comprehensive tariff strategy, imposing a universal 10% tariff on all imported goods, effective from the 5th April.

Additionally, as of today, 9th April, a second wave of higher “reciprocal” tariffs has been implemented, targeting specific countries with rates ranging from 11% to 50%, based on perceived trade imbalances and barriers. Notably, China which now faces a tariff rate of 104% on its exports to the US, combining previous and new duties.

The UK, Australia, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam, and Taiwan have confirmed they will not introduce countermeasures at this stage. Notably, both Vietnam and Taiwan have expressed willingness to negotiate with the US and explore zero-tariff agreements.

In contrast, China responded with retaliatory tariffs of up to 34% on US goods, which has seen President Trump follow through with his threatened escalation of an additional 50% duty on Chinese imports. As a result, US importers now face an unprecedented degree of uncertainty around landed costs.

The European Union has proposed a zero-tariff arrangement on autos and industrial goods, which was rejected by the US. So far, the EU’s potential response appears limited to steel and aluminium, though speculation persists around broader negotiations and potential shifts in trade policy.

This environment puts US importers in a difficult position: ship now and risk overpaying if tariffs are reversed, or delay and risk facing even higher costs if further duties are imposed. Many are opting to pause shipments where possible, disrupting vessel utilisation, bookings, and spot market rates.

Early indicators suggest the impact on global logistics is already being felt. Sea freight container bookings into the US from China have dropped a massive 67% in the past 7 days compared to the week prior, with export bookings also down 40%. If these figures are anywhere near accurate, this marks an extremely large and immediate disruption to trade flows into the US.

If this slowdown continues, significant blank sailings from the carriers are inevitable, and signs of this are already emerging. Yesterday, Ocean Network Express (ONE) announced that the Premier Alliance PN4 Pacific service, scheduled to begin in May, has been suspended until further notice—an early indication of broader cancellations to come.

There are several mechanisms that can be utilised to temporarily avoid duties for exports into the USA including Free/ Foreign Trade Zones, customs regimes, bonded facilities, temporary import bonds (TIB’s), carnets and more. There are options to carry on shipping goods to USA and not clear them until it is absolutely clear whether commodity tariff rates will be reduced or withdrawn as, or if, deals are agreed between countries.

From an objective standpoint, it remains unclear what concessions the US is seeking in exchange for easing these tariffs, particularly since the justification of “tariffs imposed on the US” lacks clarity in many cases.

For shippers and carriers the coming days and weeks will require vigilance and adaptability. The tariff landscape may shift dramatically and without warning, both upward and downward.

We continue to monitor developments closely and will issue further updates as more information becomes available, particularly concerning potential EU countermeasures and UK trade policy responses.

If you would like to review your specific supply chain impact, assess your exposure, or explore strategic alternatives, please don’t hesitate to get in touch. Metro is well-positioned to support you, bolstered by our expanded US presence and strong focus on North American trade flows.

Expect further insights in the coming days as the situation unfolds and if you have any questions please give me a call, or drop a message, and we will ensure that you receive immediate attention and advice.

White House 1440x1080 1

Major US Tariff Changes

On 2 April , President Trump unveiled sweeping new tariffs that will have global implications for international trade. 

These measures mark the most significant restructuring of U.S. tariff policy in decades and they will impact many businesses, irrespective of whether they trade with the United States.

Key Tariff Measures

  • Universal Tariff: A baseline 10% tariff will now apply to all imported goods entering the United States, effective immediately. The UK has been hit with this baseline.
  • Targeted Tariffs: Elevated tariffs have been introduced for a wide range of countries, including:
    • China: 34% (bringing total duties to 54%)
    • Vietnam: 46%
    • Cambodia: 49%
    • Bangladesh: 37%
    • European Union: 20%
    • Japan: 24%
    • South Korea: 25%
    • India, Indonesia, Taiwan and others: 26–36%
  • End of de minimis: The $800 duty-free threshold for China imports into the U.S. will be eliminated from May 2, disrupting cross-border eCommerce flows.

Implications for UK Importers and Exporters

Many production hubs like Vietnam, Cambodia, and Bangladesh now face tariffs approaching or exceeding 40%. UK brands that re-export to the U.S. from Asia could see significant cost hikes and supply chain disruptions.

U.S. importers are expected to face increased landed costs and margin pressure. Brands may be forced to raise prices or renegotiate terms with suppliers, especially as cost-conscious consumers in both the U.S. and UK continue to feel inflationary pressures.

Even UK-based businesses that manufacture domestically could be affected due to their reliance on imported raw materials, which could now become more expensive due to universal tariffs on U.S. imports.

While automotive was less explicitly detailed in last night’s announcement, the baseline tariff applies to all goods and a separate 25% duty on imported automobiles (previously announced) remains in place. This could impact UK automotive component manufacturers that export to the U.S. and face increased costs on U.S.-sourced parts for use in European production.

The sector is also exposed to the broader risk of retaliatory tariffs, particularly from the EU and Asian economies, which may further complicate trade flows and cost structures.

European Response

While the UK is pausing reaction, the European Commission has already indicated a strong and coordinated response is likely. While details of retaliatory measures are still unfolding, the EU is expected to pursue countermeasures, which could further disrupt transatlantic supply chains, including UK firms trading with both blocs.

There’s also growing concern about goods being diverted into UK and European markets as exporters from Asia and other regions look for alternative markets in response to the new U.S. tariffs. This could lead to ‘dumping’ and potential price pressure, especially in fashion and fast-moving consumer goods.

Putting the Tariffs in Perspective

  • Not always an additive cost:
  • The new tariffs replace existing duties rather than stacking on top of them. For example, if a product currently has a 5% duty and the new universal rate is 10%, the increase is 5%, not an additional 10%. This makes the change less severe than it might first appear.
  • Customs regimes can help: Tools such as Outward Processing Relief (OPR) and Inward Processing Relief (IPR) can help businesses avoid customs duties on goods that cross borders multiple times for processing.
  • Low-cost countries still competitive: Despite increased tariffs, production in countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh may still be more cost-effective than U.S. manufacturing—though consumers are likely to see price increases.
  • No substitute for specialised goods: Products under copyright, or those requiring specialised manufacturing, cannot easily be relocated. In these cases, additional costs will be passed directly to consumers.
  • Opportunities for the UK: Low-duty countries such as the UK could become more attractive as manufacturing bases for goods destined for the U.S. This may stimulate local manufacturing activity.
  • Are these changes permanent? It’s too early to tell. The tariffs could be temporary, as demonstrated by reversals in January 2025 involving Canada and Mexico. The long-term outcome will depend on how events unfold following this decision by the Trump administration.

What This Means for Your Business

We recommend that clients in affected sectors:

  • Reassess Supply Chains: Identify exposure to high-tariff countries, especially if goods transit through the U.S. or rely on U.S.-based components or partners.
  • Prepare for Cost Changes: Anticipate adjustments to landed costs and pricing strategies. Engage early with suppliers to explore cost-sharing or alternative sourcing.
  • Monitor for Retaliation: Be alert to EU and UK policy shifts that could either mirror or respond to the U.S. measures.
  • Watch for Dumping Risks: Be aware of the potential for market saturation as exporters redirect goods, especially in fashion, household goods, and footwear.

We are closely monitoring the situation and will keep you updated as further developments emerge—particularly in relation to EU countermeasures and UK trade policy adjustments.

Please don’t hesitate to reach out if you’d like to discuss your specific supply chain, explore alternative strategies, or assess your risk exposure.

Metro is well positioned to support you, especially through our recent U.S. expansion and our strong North American trade focus. Expect further updates in the days and weeks ahead as more details become available.

Bridge on ship

Sea Freight Market Review

The global ocean freight market is undergoing a period of transition in 2025, influenced by regulatory changes, shifting trade patterns, and evolving carrier alliances. While demand remains strong in key regions, rate volatility persists due to supply chain disruptions and excess capacity.

The ocean freight sector is experiencing considerable adjustments as carriers adapt to regulatory and economic shifts. The EU ETS expansion now covers 70% of maritime emissions, leading to higher surcharges and operational costs for carriers.

Supply/Demand
Capacity growth is projected to slow to 5% in 2025 after record vessel deliveries in 2024. However, supply chain disruptions persist due to global port congestion and ongoing Red Sea diversions are soaking up excess capacity.

The restructuring of major shipping alliances is further shaping the industry landscape, with the dissolution of 2M, the formation of the Premier Alliance by THE Alliance, and the launch of Gemini Cooperation in February 2025.

Proforma scheduled liner capacity on the Asia-North Europe trade is set to be reduced by around 11% once the transition to the new shipping alliance set-up is complete. The combined weekly capacity drop of some 28,000 TEU equates to a total reduction of 221,000 TEU across all services. However, the number of individual weekly sailings between Asia and North Europe is expected to increase from 26 (under the previous alliances and standalone services) to 28, potentially improving frequency and flexibility for shippers.

Global port congestion remains a pressing issue, particularly in China and vessel utilisation remains high, with only 0.2% of the global liner fleet currently idle. The industry is also witnessing an increase in blank sailings, with 47 announced through mid-April, affecting Transpacific and Asia-Europe trade routes. The Transpacific market, in particular, is experiencing notable disruptions, with 43% of blank sailings concentrated in this corridor.

Expectations that Red Sea diversions would ease, returning an estimated 2 million TEU to global circulation, were dampened over the weekend following missile exchanges between the US and Yemen’s Houthi rebels. MSC CEO Soren Toft stated, “Suez simply isn’t safe to transit at the moment, and there’s no immediate prospect of a return.” This continued instability may prolong disruptions and return pressure on rates.

Market
Meanwhile, the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) has dropped 17% since January and despite strong cargo demand in select regions, the market remains vulnerable to downward pricing pressures.

Demand remains resilient but uneven, with North America and India seeing stronger performance, whereas Europe’s slower economic growth is weighing on export activity. Chinese exports have exceeded expectations, driven in part by early shipments ahead of potential tariff adjustments.

The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) has reached its lowest level since January 2024 and while rates are below their pandemic-era peaks they are still 79% higher than pre-pandemic averages from 2019.

At Metro, our fixed-rate agreements on popular shipping routes provide a practical safeguard against rate volatility, offering predictable costs for effective budgeting. Whether you’re managing high-volume trade lanes or seeking greater stability for your supply chain, our tailored solutions can help you thrive in 2025.

To discover how Metro can strengthen your business and provide peace of mind, EMAIL our Managing Director, Andy Smith, today.

LAX 1440x1080 1

Air Freight Market Review

The global air freight market in February and early March reflected moderate year-on-year (YoY) growth, with total worldwide tonnages up 5% in February and 2% higher YoY in early March.

However, market dynamics remain volatile, influenced by shifting trade policies, geopolitical factors, and eCommerce trends.

Asia-Europe air cargo showed strong demand recovery in March, with tonnages rising 4% week-on-week (WoW) and while average spot rates softened they remain 20% higher YoY. Meanwhile, transatlantic routes saw weaker demand from Europe, with London Heathrow and Frankfurt spot rates declining amid softer outbound trade.

Market Situation
Global air cargo tonnages rose 5% YoY in February, supported by an 8% surge from Asia Pacific and a 4% rise in North America and Europe. However, Middle East & South Asia (MESA) volumes declined by 6%, reflecting last year’s Red Sea-driven demand spike.

By early March (Week 10), Asia-Europe trade saw significant WoW volume gains:

  • China to Europe tonnages increased by 5%
  • Hong Kong to Europe volumes grew by 6%
  • Japan & Taiwan to Europe rose by 7%
  • Thailand & Singapore to Europe surged by 9%

Despite these volume increases, average spot price indices on Asia-Europe lanes declined by 3%. However, YoY spot rates remain significantly higher (+20%), supported by China (+14%), Hong Kong (+22%), Japan (+19%), and Thailand (+38%).

Global air cargo markets remained relatively stable through February and early March, with weekly demand fluctuations balancing out across key regions.

  • Asia-Europe: Despite a 4% WoW tonnage rebound in Week 10, rates dipped as supply-demand balances shifted.
  • Transatlantic (Europe to USA): Weaker outbound demand put spot rates under pressure at London Heathrow and Frankfurt.
  • Middle East to Europe: Demand weakened with Dubai-to-Europe tonnages falling 15% WoW.

Global air freight rates remained 6% higher YoY, though Asia-Europe pricing showed a mixed trend, with falls on all the major trade lanes, though rates remain significantly higher than last year.

  • Asia-Europe remains 20% higher YoY.
  • China to Europe still stands 14% higher YoY.
  • Hong Kong to Europe are up 22% YoY.

The Asia-Europe air cargo market rebounded in early March, with tonnage gains but slightly softer rates as market conditions adjusted. Meanwhile, transatlantic routes saw demand weakness, leading to rate declines from major European hubs. Moving forward, trade policies, geopolitical shifts, and capacity adjustments will continue to influence global air cargo pricing and volumes.

In a volatile air cargo market, securing capacity and competitive rates is critical. Metro’s air freight, charter, and sea/air solutions ensure your shipments move efficiently, even on the busiest trade lanes. With block space agreements (BSA) and capacity purchase agreements (CPA) in place, we guarantee space and stable pricing when you need it most.

Whether you’re shipping urgent, high-value, or sensitive cargo, our global expertise and strategic carrier partnerships keep your supply chain running on time and within budget.

EMAIL Elliot Carlile, Operations Director, today to explore how Metro’s air freight solutions can optimise your logistics.