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Ex-China Airfreight: Turbulence and Transformation

Sep 30, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , ,

For shippers moving goods by air into Europe and the US, the peak season has arrived with a complexity not seen in recent years. As flights are cancelled and rates trend sharply upward, a fundamental reshaping of the marketplace is underway.

In September, a powerful typhoon swept through southern China just as the annual Golden Week holiday loomed. Traditionally, Golden Week brings a slowdown as manufacturing pauses and workers take leave, creating ripples in cargo flow.

This year, the typhoon compounded the crisis: hundreds of flights were suspended and key export ports shuttered, abruptly tightening airfreight supply. Airport terminals saw mounting backlogs, with some shipments delayed by nearly a week before normal operations could resume.

The squeeze led to dramatic, double-digit percentage increases in airfreight rates for shipments from China to Europe, climbing between 30% and 50% compared to average off-season levels. Routes to the United States also saw significant jumps, though the impact was mitigated by shifting demand patterns and new import restrictions in the US.

Europe Bound: A Market in Flux

While every major trade lane felt the impact of these disruptions, the China-to-Europe corridor has emerged as both the most stressed and the most resilient. Demand for space surged as volumes, particularly of high-tech and eCommerce goods, outpaced declining US-bound shipments.

This pattern reflects a broader structural change: capacity typically serving transpacific markets is now being redirected to European routes, reinforcing the upward pressure on rates.

The European Union’s relative trade stability and ongoing restocking by retailers have kept import flows buoyant. In contrast, the US market is seeing smaller volume growth and increasingly complex customs checks, which have led to sporadic diversions of supply chains to alternative gateway countries and slower overall throughput.

US Adjustments and Alternative Strategies

The US airfreight market from China, though still sizeable, has shifted course under the weight of new regulatory developments. The end of duty-free de minimis rules has decreased the viability of direct eCommerce shipments for small parcels.

As a result, shippers have begun to favour indirect strategies, routing goods through third countries to manage duties, or utilising other North American hubs to avoid new tariff thresholds.

This has prompted a measurable contraction in direct air cargo volumes to the US from China, even as some businesses attempt to hedge risk by booking additional capacity in advance for the holiday season. Leading carriers report rates holding steady or growing only modestly compared to Europe-bound lanes.

The Road (Skies) Ahead

Looking through 2025’s peak season and into the coming year, the airfreight market faces continued unpredictability. Recovery from typhoon-related disruptions is expected to be gradual, with many factories extending their Golden Week closures and logistical bottlenecks possibly persisting into mid-October.

Industry analysts project that rates on China-Europe flights are likely to rise further by up to 10% before normalising, while transpacific pricing will remain highly sensitive to evolving US trade policy and inventory cycles.

At the same time, underlying trends, such as the shift of high-value tech goods via air and the migration of eCommerce flows through alternative channels, suggest that unpredictability will remain a defining feature.

Early communication is becoming indispensable for urgent shipments. We would encourage shippers to forecast and book well in advance, providing transparent communication about possible route or schedule changes, and retain contingency plans for the likely rolling pockets of disruption.

Metro gives you the visibility, agility, and expertise to overcome turbulence and transformation, strengthening your supply chain and securing your airfreight movements from China to the US and Europe.

With demand surging and carrier schedules in flux, securing space and certainty has never been more critical. Metro is actively monitoring capacity, adjusting routings, and working with trusted carrier partners to protect booking allocations.

Our latest innovation takes visibility and control to new levels, with real-time flight telemetry tracking to provide:

– Live aircraft position and route mapping
– Accurate departure and arrival confirmation
– Time-stamped milestone events, updated in real time

This level of transparency means you can plan confidently, optimise inventory, and protect service levels even in unpredictable conditions.

Partner with Metro for smarter, faster, and more resilient air freight solutions, powered by live data and long-standing carrier relationships.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, today to explore how we can support your success.

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Carriers Sustain Transpacific Rate Momentum with Strategic Blanking

Sep 17, 2025 | , , , ,

Transpacific carriers have achieved notable success this September in upholding spot freight rates despite softer volumes and ongoing market pressures. Through a mix of strategic blank sailings and well-timed general rate increases (GRIs), the main carriers have sustained a robust rate environment and prevented any steep downturn even as demand has moderated heading into Golden Week.

Even as US import volumes in the lead-up to Golden Week have remained below prior years, carriers have managed to stop spot rates from falling sharply, with major lines blanking about 10% of westbound and nearly 20% of eastbound transpacific sailings for September and October.

This level of discipline has limited rate erosion and positioned the market for further stability as more blank sailings are announced for October.

Recent Rate Developments

September’s rate surge was driven primarily by a combination of a general rate increase and capacity reductions. Spot rates saw weekly gains approaching 6% on key legs, and some increases were as much as 21% compared to late August. While these rate gains provided temporary lift, spot prices have started to moderate, trending back to levels seen before the September 1 GRI. Carriers have succeeded in keeping rates comfortably above the lows reached in August, typically sitting up to 20% above those levels.

Many carriers are now offering voyage-specific spot rates, targeting marketplace flexibility to fill remaining slots. This approach, alongside tactical blankings, enables lines to preserve market discipline and ensure spot prices do not undercut contracted rate benchmarks. The current spread between spot market and fixed contract rates reflects ongoing efforts to support yields while maintaining service options for shippers.

Outlook

In September, eastbound transpacific blankings removed approximately 10% of capacity on West Coast routes and nearly 13% on East Coast strings.

Forecasts for October foresee blankings of about 10% on the West Coast and almost 20% to the East Coast, reflecting a more aggressive stance in supporting additional GRIs post-Golden Week. 

Their active management has proven successful in supporting rates under challenging conditions, emphasising a preference for maintaining pricing power over chasing fleeting short-term volumes. As a result, the transpacific market continues to resist a downward spiral, demonstrating resilience and strategic discipline.

With strategic capacity management and long-established ocean carrier relationships, our team is helping clients secure space, optimise rates, and keep high-priority cargo moving on key transpacific lanes.

As blank sailings and new rate initiatives reshape the market, proactive planning and flexible routing have never been more important.

If your business depends on reliable Asia–US trade flows, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, today to discover how expert guidance and tailored solutions can keep your supply chain agile and cost-effective, whatever the market brings.

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Asia Pacific Freight Markets Reshape as Tariffs Shift Trade Flows

Sep 3, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Air and sea freight in the Asia Pacific region is at the centre of global freight realignments, as eCommerce and feeder shipping operations are reshaped by recent policy changes in the US. 

Adjustments to tariff rules and the elimination of duty exemptions have pushed shippers to reconsider sourcing strategies, shifting some flows from China to other Asia Pacific markets while amplifying pressure on already-congested sea and air networks.

Air cargo: eCommerce realignment

The removal of de minimis exemptions on China–US eCommerce shipments has sharply reduced volumes from mainland China and Hong Kong to the US, while boosting flows from alternative Asia Pacific origins and into Europe.

Airlines across the region reported strong growth in July, as exporters diverted shipments to avoid tariff penalties and took advantage of front-loading opportunities during temporary pauses in tariff implementation.

This shift highlights the growing role of Asia Pacific beyond China in meeting US and European demand, with trade lanes from Southeast Asia and emerging eCommerce hubs gaining traction. While China remains dominant in cross-border online trade, its reduced share of US-bound volumes has accelerated diversification across the region.

Sea freight: Feeder bottlenecks

At the same time, feeder shortages in Southeast Asia are disrupting supply chains, delaying transshipments and creating congestion at major hubs including Singapore (operating near 90% yard capacity), Shanghai, Ningbo and Port Klang.

Shippers are being forced to secure space weeks in advance, with rolled cargo and high yard density compounding the disruption.

The surge in demand from Southeast Asia, partly driven by tariff-related cargo diversions, has stretched feeder capacity, with carriers prioritising direct lanes over transshipment-heavy routings. For US exporters, this has meant greater scrutiny over which cargoes are accepted, adding uncertainty to already fragile trade flows.

Implications for US and European businesses

For US and European importers, these developments underline the risks of over-reliance on single-source markets, as both regulatory shifts and operational pressures can disrupt established flows. For exporters, feeder constraints and selective carrier acceptance policies may limit market access and slow supply chains out of Asia.

Diversification of sourcing, earlier booking strategies, and closer collaboration with supply chain stakeholders is essential in navigating these disruptions. With eCommerce volumes continuing to grow and Asia Pacific playing a more pivotal role, freight strategies must evolve to maintain resilience and competitiveness.

Metro gives you the visibility, agility, and expertise to adapt to shifting trade flows and capacity constraints. EMAIL managing director, Andy Smith, today to strengthen your supply chain and secure your freight movements across Asia Pacific, the US and Europe.

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US Tariffs Reshape Global Supply Chains

Sep 3, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The wave of new US tariffs has triggered a recalibration across global trade and supply chains. While markets initially reacted with relative calm, the cumulative impact of the Trump administration’s layered tariff regime, now reaching more than 60 countries, is beginning to reshape sourcing strategies, cost structures, and trade flows worldwide.

The latest measures, including punitive tariffs of up to 50% on imports from India, and Switzerland, and a standardised 15% levy on most EU goods, follow months of negotiations, with the UK and US agreeing an Economic Prosperity Deal (EPD) on 8 May, as a framework for tariff reductions to 10% and sector-specific cooperation.

While the EU, UK and some other nations have secured temporary reprieves or reduced rates, others are facing some of the steepest trade barriers since the 1930s. Despite legal challenges and ongoing court reviews, the ‘reciprocal’ tariff framework remains in force until 14 October to give the administration time to appeal to the US Supreme Court.

Supply Chain Implications

With the average US tariff rate climbing to 15.2%, up from a pre-Trump level of just 2.3%, importers are confronted by significant new costs and operational uncertainties. Many rushed to ship goods before the new levies took effect, temporarily insulating American consumers from immediate price increases.

However, the landscape is growing more unpredictable. With distinct, sector-specific tariffs on items like semiconductors, consumer electronics, pharmaceuticals, and critical minerals forthcoming, importers face ongoing uncertainty around landed costs and logistical planning.

And while the legality of “reciprocal” tariffs continues under judicial review, it adds yet another layer of risk for firms engaged in international trading.

The structure of the new tariff regime is multi-layered. A base rate of 10% applies to most imports, with steeper levies of 15% to 41% on countries with trade surpluses or those targeted for geopolitical reasons. Sector-specific duties on copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and critical minerals are being introduced in stages, with transshipment clauses aimed at preventing circumvention.

India, Switzerland and Brazil have emerged among the hardest-hit economies, with duties on some goods now matching or exceeding those applied to China. 

The outlook for trade with China remains fluid. A 90-day truce has paused the imposition of previously announced three-digit tariffs, with further talks expected before the November deadline.

However, a new provision introducing a 40% tariff on suspected transshipped goods, potentially targeting Chinese exports routed through third countries, has introduced added further complexity for supply chain managers.

The EU, UK, Canada, Mexico, Japan, and South Korea, appear better positioned to weather the storm, with existing trade agreements and temporary negotiation windows providing some insulation. Yet, some of these buffers are time-limited, and broader economic impacts are still unfolding.

As tariffs shift the relative cost of sourcing and importing, businesses are actively reviewing their global footprints. For many, the focus is now on building resilience through diversification, friend-shoring, and regionalisation. However, continued tariff uncertainty is delaying investment decisions and complicating long-term planning, especially for industries reliant on integrated global supply chains.

US Tariffs are reshaping global trade. Whether you’re evaluating exporting or sourcing options, reviewing landed costs, or considering tariff engineering, EMAIL our managing director Andy Smith to discuss your exposure and build a future-proof compliance strategy.

Category: China

China | Metro | Sea | United States

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