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Seven supply chain shocks in seven weeks

Feb 19, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Just seven weeks into 2025, global supply chains have already faced a whirlwind of challenges.

From industrial action to trade barriers and shifting alliances, businesses must stay agile to navigate ongoing disruptions. Here are seven of the most impactful developments so far this year.

1. US east coast port strike averted (8th January)
A major disruption was narrowly avoided as the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a tentative six-year agreement. The deal, approved on 7 February, prevented a strike that could have crippled US east coast ports for months. A final vote on 25 February will confirm its ratification.

2. Uncertainty over Suez Canal return (19th January)
Despite a fragile ceasefire in Gaza, container ships will not be returning to the Red Sea anytime soon. Carriers remain cautious, fearing renewed instability and prioritising the established Cape of Good Hope diversions. Even if ships do resume transit, severe disruption is expected, with schedules taking up to two months to stabilise.

3. Trump’s trade policies spark concerns (20th January)
Following his inauguration, President Trump swiftly reignited trade tensions, threatening tariffs on Colombia, China, Canada, and Mexico. Proposals include a 25% levy on steel and aluminium from Canada and Mexico, with reciprocal tariffs also being considered for UK imports. The potential trade war could have widespread consequences for global supply chains.

4. US air cargo demand under threat (1st February)
Trump’s decision to impose a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports and temporarily suspend the de minimis exemption for low-value Chinese shipments has sent shockwaves through the air freight sector. While the exemption was reinstated, changes to eCommerce regulations could significantly disrupt air cargo flows into the US, which is expected to receive 1.4 billion eCommerce packages this year.

5. New Asia shipping alliances reshape trade (2nd February)
The long-anticipated shift from three major container alliances (Ocean, THEA, 2M) to four key players (Ocean, Premier, Gemini, MSC) is now in effect. Asia-North Europe scheduled liner capacity will shrink by 11%, yet the number of weekly sailings will increase from 26 to 28. These changes will reshape global shipping networks for years to come.

6. European road freight rates stabilising (4th February)
After three years of decline, European road freight spot rates may have hit their lowest point. According to the European Road Freight Rate Benchmark, spot rates fell just 1% year-on-year in Q4 2024. While demand remains weak, cost pressures have kept rates 15% above pre-pandemic levels, with short-term volatility expected.

7. Carriers cut sailings to stabilise rates (14th February)
Shipping lines are aggressively blanking sailings to ease the transition to new alliance schedules and sustain freight rates. Between 17 February and 23 March, 51 sailings have been cancelled across key east-west trade routes, with February’s cancellations rising to 133 from 104 in January. Further capacity withdrawals and a general rate increase (GRI) could follow if demand fails to recover.

With trade disputes, shipping realignments, and geopolitical instability shaping global supply chains, the first quarter of 2025 has already presented significant challenges.

Staying ahead requires proactive strategy adjustments to mitigate risks and build resilience. That’s why we share these insights and why your Metro account management team is always by your side, ready to provide expert advice, share knowledge, and develop bespoke solutions tailored to your supply chain needs.

For high-level support, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director.

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Uncertainty grows as US tariffs target China

Feb 5, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

While last-minute negotiations resulted in a temporary reprieve for Canadian and Mexican imports, President Trump’s new tariffs on Chinese goods from the 4th February have already triggered retaliation, adding further pressure to international supply chains.

US tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports have been put on hold for at least 30 days following security commitments from both nations. This delay offers temporary relief for critical trade lanes, including automotive components, electronics, and pharmaceuticals.

Canada has pledged increased border enforcement measures, including new personnel and surveillance technology, while Mexico has committed to deploying additional forces to its border. These actions have led to a pause in tariffs, but shippers should remain cautious as negotiations continue, with the risk of duties being reinstated if agreements are not finalised by March.

The US administration has implemented an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports and in response China has introduced tariffs of up to 15% on selected US goods and imposed export controls, affecting critical technologies such as solar cell production. While these measures appear targeted, they contribute to an increasingly volatile trade environment, forcing businesses to reconsider sourcing strategies and logistics solutions.

US prepares further trade restrictions

Beyond tariffs, the US is tightening its stance on eCommerce imports by getting ready to suspend the de minimis exemption for shipments from China, as soon as adequate systems are in place to fully and expediently process and collect tariff revenue. Previously, goods valued under $800 could enter the US duty-free, but the removal of this exemption would be expected to severely impact cross-border eCommerce air cargo volumes.

In addition, new regulations, announced by US Customs and Border Protection, introduce additional filing requirements, increasing administrative burdens on online retailers and logistics providers. However, analysts suggest that while higher costs may impact some importers, consumer demand is unlikely to diminish significantly, given the relatively low average value of eCommerce purchases.

With ongoing negotiations between the US, Canada, and Mexico, and China’s measured response to tariffs, industry leaders remain cautiously optimistic. However, agility will be essential in navigating evolving trade policies and regulatory changes. As new agreements are brokered and tensions shift, shippers must remain adaptable to mitigate risks and capitalise on emerging opportunities.

As global trade policies shift and new tariffs reshape supply chains, proactive planning is more critical than ever. At Metro, we leverage award-winning services and deep industry expertise to help businesses navigate evolving trade barriers, regulatory changes, and supply chain disruptions.

Whether you need to mitigate the impact of tariffs, ensure compliance with new regulations, or adapt sourcing/export strategies, our tailored solutions keep your supply chain resilient and competitive.

EMAIL Andy Smith, Managing Director, today to explore how Metro can safeguard your supply chain and support your business in 2025 and beyond.

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Gemini Cooperation’s bid to transform reliability

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As the Gemini Cooperation officially launches, its promise of 90%-plus schedule reliability through a hub-and-spoke network is under intense scrutiny.

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, the two partners in the venture, aim to address persistent reliability issues in container shipping, where schedule adherence has remained stubbornly low, fluctuating between 50% and 55% throughout 2024.

Gemini’s hub-and-spoke model, which involves central hubs facilitating feeder services to final destinations, is designed to optimise transit efficiency. By consolidating mainline services at designated hubs, the carriers seek to mitigate congestion-related delays that can plague conventional port-to-port operations. 

With 340 vessels and a combined capacity of 3.7 million TEUs, the Gemini network will eventually offer 57 interconnected services – 29 mainline routes and 28 regional shuttles – once fully phased in by mid-year.

Overcoming historical challenges

Achieving the ambitious 90% schedule reliability target remains a formidable challenge, given the industry’s historical struggles with port congestion and operational disruptions. 

While Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have consistently outperformed the industry average, their own reliability in 2024 remained below 60%. By controlling key transshipment hubs Gemini aims to establish a more predictable flow of goods. 

External risks, however, remain beyond the carriers’ control. Congestion at key ports in China, including Shanghai and Ningbo, has intensified due to demand outpacing capacity growth. The ability of the Gemini model to navigate such disruptions will be crucial in determining its success.

A question of market adoption

Beyond operational feasibility, the long-term viability of Gemini hinges on whether shippers are willing to prioritise schedule reliability over cost savings. The model’s success will depend on whether customers are prepared to pay a premium for consistency, particularly in an uncertain 2025 market. While some shippers may value reduced inventory costs enabled by greater reliability, past efforts to introduce premium services struggled due to market fragmentation and price sensitivity.

With the majority of shippers valuing end-to-end reliability rather than just punctuality between hubs, the challenge for Gemini will be to demonstrate that its model can deliver comprehensive benefits across the entire supply chain.

An industry-first experiment

With competing alliances, Ocean Alliance, Premier Alliance and MSC continuing to favour traditional port-to-port networks, Gemini’s decision to embrace the hub-and-spoke model sets it apart. For ‘Ocean’ and ‘Premier’ it is more or less ‘business as usual’, with their service structure based upon the current setups. 

In particular ‘Ocean’s’ network remains largely unchanged, except for the re-launch of a seventh Far East to Europe service. Further to this, the alliance will add the South Chinese port of Yang- pu, on Hainan Island, to two of its Asia to North America loops. 

‘Premier’ mainly maintains the former THEA services and it will compensate the departure of Hapag-Lloyd by slot agreements with MSC on Far East to Europe services. Operationally, the partners will keep full control of ‘their’ loops, while retaining an existing Vessel Sharing Agreement with Wan Hai Lines in the Transpacific trade. ‘Premier’s’ largest member, ONE, will also continue a Transatlantic Vessel Sharing Agreement with the members of ‘Ocean’. 

With the network still in its early stages, industry observers remain divided on whether Gemini can deliver on its promises. Yet, if the venture achieves its ambitious targets, it could compel competitors to rethink their approach. The coming months will provide the first indications of whether this bold experiment will reshape global container shipping or simply become another ambitious but short-lived attempt at reform.

Metro negotiates rates and volume agreements with a broad portfolio of carriers, including MSC and the three major alliances, ensuring shippers have access to the widest range of service options, port pairings, and competitive rates. 

Our tailored ocean freight solutions reflect each customer’s unique requirements and expectations, delivering optimised logistics strategies. For expert guidance EMAIL Andy Smith, Managing Director, to review your situation and find the best solution for your supply chain.

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UK trade expansion, investment, and regulatory shifts

Feb 5, 2025 | , , ,

While challenges remain, including rising costs and global economic uncertainties, the UK’s export trade environment is set for significant transformation, driven by infrastructure investments, regulatory updates, and evolving international partnerships.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has outlined ambitious plans to boost growth, focusing on airport expansions, international trade missions, and economic cooperation with key partners. These initiatives come as Europe faces economic headwinds, underscored by a recent interest rate cut by the European Central Bank.

Infrastructure expansion to boost trade

Reeves has signalled strong government support for expanding the UK’s aviation infrastructure, including at Heathrow, recognising its critical role in trade and connectivity. 

The government is considering further development at Luton and Gatwick airports, in addition to backing expansion at London City and Stansted. The proposed reopening of Doncaster Sheffield Airport and the establishment of an advanced manufacturing and logistics park at Manchester Airport are expected to generate significant investment and job creation.

“A third runway at Heathrow should be a priority,” said Marco Forgione, director general of the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade. “We also urge the government to invest in the UK’s broader infrastructure network, including road, rail, and ports, to remain competitive in the global market.”

Strengthening global trade ties

The UK government is ramping up efforts to strengthen international trade relationships. Business and trade secretary Jonathan Reynolds will lead a trade delegation to India next month, aiming to secure new partnerships and investment opportunities. Reeves also reaffirmed the UK’s commitment to leveraging its “special relationship” with the US, particularly under the administration of President Trump.

Meanwhile, China is solidifying its dominance in clean energy mineral supply chains, issuing loans worth billions to developing countries. This move highlights the urgency for the UK to secure its own critical mineral supply chains to support green energy initiatives.

Customs and regulatory updates

Changes in trade regulations continue to impact UK exporters. HMRC has announced the closure of the Modernising Authorisations project following a spending review. However, ongoing improvements to customs guidance and technical handbooks will still be delivered, ensuring businesses receive the necessary support for compliance.

Additionally, new safety and security requirements have been implemented, alongside updates to the Customs Declaration Service. These regulatory shifts reinforce the importance of businesses staying informed and adapting to evolving trade procedures.

UK-EU economic cooperation

The UK is pursuing deeper economic cooperation with the EU, with a proposal to link the UK and EU Emissions Trading Schemes (ETS). This alignment could help streamline cross-border trade and reduce compliance burdens when both parties fully implement their respective Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs). These mechanisms, designed to tax high-emission imports, aim to prevent carbon leakage by discouraging companies from relocating polluting activities to regions with looser environmental regulations.

EU officials have confirmed that the UK has requested ETS linkage and CBAM discussions to be included in an upcoming UK-EU summit. Minister for EU relations Nick Thomas-Symonds described this as an “absolute priority” for ensuring regulatory alignment and minimising trade disruptions.

Navigating the complexities of international trade requires real-time insights and expert guidance. At Metro, we continuously monitor market influences, including currency fluctuations, macroeconomic trends, and evolving regulations, to help you de-risk your supply chain and maximise opportunities.

Our MVT supply chain platform offers in-depth reporting, tracking global CO2 emissions and providing essential environmental compliance templates. Whether you’re entering new export markets, sourcing from fresh suppliers, or responding to regulatory changes, we provide tailored solutions to keep your business competitive.

With over 40 years of expertise in multimodal transport and customs brokerage, we lead the way with CuDoS, our automated customs declaration platform, ensuring swift compliance with UK and EU trade regimes.

Make informed decisions with Metro’s strategic support. For trade insights and risk management advice, EMAIL Laurence Burford, Chief Financial Officer. For customs and regulatory solutions, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director.

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