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Seven supply chain shocks in seven weeks

Feb 19, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Just seven weeks into 2025, global supply chains have already faced a whirlwind of challenges.

From industrial action to trade barriers and shifting alliances, businesses must stay agile to navigate ongoing disruptions. Here are seven of the most impactful developments so far this year.

1. US east coast port strike averted (8th January)
A major disruption was narrowly avoided as the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a tentative six-year agreement. The deal, approved on 7 February, prevented a strike that could have crippled US east coast ports for months. A final vote on 25 February will confirm its ratification.

2. Uncertainty over Suez Canal return (19th January)
Despite a fragile ceasefire in Gaza, container ships will not be returning to the Red Sea anytime soon. Carriers remain cautious, fearing renewed instability and prioritising the established Cape of Good Hope diversions. Even if ships do resume transit, severe disruption is expected, with schedules taking up to two months to stabilise.

3. Trump’s trade policies spark concerns (20th January)
Following his inauguration, President Trump swiftly reignited trade tensions, threatening tariffs on Colombia, China, Canada, and Mexico. Proposals include a 25% levy on steel and aluminium from Canada and Mexico, with reciprocal tariffs also being considered for UK imports. The potential trade war could have widespread consequences for global supply chains.

4. US air cargo demand under threat (1st February)
Trump’s decision to impose a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports and temporarily suspend the de minimis exemption for low-value Chinese shipments has sent shockwaves through the air freight sector. While the exemption was reinstated, changes to eCommerce regulations could significantly disrupt air cargo flows into the US, which is expected to receive 1.4 billion eCommerce packages this year.

5. New Asia shipping alliances reshape trade (2nd February)
The long-anticipated shift from three major container alliances (Ocean, THEA, 2M) to four key players (Ocean, Premier, Gemini, MSC) is now in effect. Asia-North Europe scheduled liner capacity will shrink by 11%, yet the number of weekly sailings will increase from 26 to 28. These changes will reshape global shipping networks for years to come.

6. European road freight rates stabilising (4th February)
After three years of decline, European road freight spot rates may have hit their lowest point. According to the European Road Freight Rate Benchmark, spot rates fell just 1% year-on-year in Q4 2024. While demand remains weak, cost pressures have kept rates 15% above pre-pandemic levels, with short-term volatility expected.

7. Carriers cut sailings to stabilise rates (14th February)
Shipping lines are aggressively blanking sailings to ease the transition to new alliance schedules and sustain freight rates. Between 17 February and 23 March, 51 sailings have been cancelled across key east-west trade routes, with February’s cancellations rising to 133 from 104 in January. Further capacity withdrawals and a general rate increase (GRI) could follow if demand fails to recover.

With trade disputes, shipping realignments, and geopolitical instability shaping global supply chains, the first quarter of 2025 has already presented significant challenges.

Staying ahead requires proactive strategy adjustments to mitigate risks and build resilience. That’s why we share these insights and why your Metro account management team is always by your side, ready to provide expert advice, share knowledge, and develop bespoke solutions tailored to your supply chain needs.

For high-level support, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director.

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Asia–Europe airfreight: Growth and vulnerabilities

Jan 23, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , ,

Despite growth and robust demand airfreight faces significant challenges, including reliance on eCommerce, capacity pressures, and geopolitical disruptions.

Airfreight demand on the Asia–Europe route saw a strong performance in 2024, bolstered by eCommerce, automotive parts, pharmaceuticals, garments and high-value electronics. Despite a slowdown in Europe’s domestic electric vehicle (EV) market, manufacturers have maintained steady shipments of EV-related spare parts to ensure regional stock levels. Meanwhile, high-value and time-sensitive automotive components remain key drivers of growth.

Pharmaceuticals and perishable goods have seen consistent demand on routes from Europe to Asia, with semi-conductor equipment and machinery playing a significant role. Electronics, one of the region’s most valuable cargo types, continues to move in high volumes, reflecting growing technological and consumer demands across Europe and Asia.

eCommerce slowdown exposes dependency

Despite surging demand for general cargo like electronics, automobile parts and garments out of India, Vietnam and Thailand, the airfreight sector’s strong reliance on eCommerce has been a double-edged sword. While the pandemic initially spurred a boom in eCommerce shipments, recent months have seen a sharp decline, with eCommerce volumes dropping significantly since the start of the year,, particularly from China.

Retailers’ full inventories and softer consumer demand have exacerbated this trend, leaving carriers grappling with reduced activity levels. While other verticals, such as pharmaceuticals and automotive, remain stable, the gap left by diminishing eCommerce volumes presents an ongoing challenge.

Capacity challenges and geopolitical pressures

Capacity remains a key issue on the Asia–Europe route. Airlines have deployed additional resources, including charter flights, to manage peak-season bottlenecks. However, this has come at a premium, with carriers competing for limited space amid strong demand for specific commodities.

Geopolitical factors have further complicated operations. The closure of Russian airspace forced carriers to reroute flights, leading to longer journey times, higher fuel consumption, and increased costs. European carriers also face competition from new Chinese entrants and Middle Eastern airlines have added another layer of complexity. This competition, while offering more options, has compressed margins for traditional carriers.

Balancing resilience with adaptation

Looking ahead, the Asia–Europe airfreight trade lane must strike a balance between resilience and adaptation. While commodities such as automotive parts, pharmaceuticals, garments and high-tech goods provide a stable foundation, diversification across more verticals will reduce vulnerabilities.

Capacity pressures and geopolitical disruptions will require innovative solutions, from optimising routes to strengthening partnerships with supply chain stakeholders.

Metro is here to help you navigate these complexities with tailored solutions that ensure reliability, cost-efficiency, and resilience.

Our airfreight, charter, and sea/air services are designed to handle urgent and sensitive shipments with precision. By leveraging block space agreements (BSA) and capacity purchase agreements (CPA), we lock-in space and competitive rates on the busiest trade lanes.

Whatever you’re shipping, Metro’s expertise and strategic carrier partnerships can optimise your supply chain while saving you money.

EMAIL Elliot Carlile, Operations Director, today to explore how Metro’s solutions can support your business on the Asia–Europe trade lane and beyond.

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New alliances reshape East-West trade container shipping

Nov 13, 2024 | , , , , , , , , , ,

Container shipping faces a transformative year in 2025, as key East-West and transatlantic shipping routes are set for substantial realignment, with the dissolution of existing alliances and the formation of new ones.

Carriers are optimising their networks to enhance competitiveness and meet the evolving demands of global trade, with the emergence of two new alliances: the Gemini Cooperation, a partnership between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, and the Premier Alliance, a collaboration of Yang Ming, HMM, and ONE, alongside new slotting arrangements with MSC.

The Ocean Alliance remains unchanged, continuing with CMA CGM, Evergreen, Cosco, and OOCL. These shifts will impact service offerings, schedules, and direct port-pair connections across major East-West routes, providing shippers with a mix of increased options and competition.

New alliances drive service innovation
MSC’s standalone network, set to operate independently of the previous 2M Alliance with Maersk, offers massive connectivity across five key trade routes: Asia to North Europe, the Mediterranean, North America West Coast, North America East Coast, and the transatlantic. The network promises high direct connectivity through both the Suez and the Cape of Good Hope, featuring over 1,900 direct port pairs, making it a formidable standalone competitor.

In contrast, the newly formed Gemini Cooperation offers few direct port-port pairs, concentrating on transhipment and feeder services to optimise efficiency. On the Asia-Europe route, MSC offers three-and-a-half times more direct connections than Gemini, while the Premier Alliance has structured its services with a high frequency of calls on selected port pairs, adding competitive pressure, especially on the Asia-North America route.

Competitive corridors and service options
For Asia-Europe, key origins including Shanghai and Ningbo will see extensive service coverage, with MSC offering the most direct options, followed closely by Ocean Alliance. MSC’s standalone network is set to offer daily services along some of these high-demand corridors, which will include major destination ports in North Europe, such as Antwerp and Felixstowe.

The Ocean Alliance will leverage its consistent service network with regular calls to European hubs, meeting demand with a steady schedule. In contrast, the Gemini Cooperation will focus on select routes with a more streamlined approach, prioritising efficiency over frequency, while the Premier Alliance positions itself as a flexible choice with direct connectivity to both large and mid-size European ports.

On the transatlantic route, the landscape is also evolving. MSC’s expanded standalone service includes comprehensive transatlantic offerings, with high-frequency connections to both North American and European ports. These routes cater to demand for direct services between major East Coast ports in the US and destinations such as Hamburg, Antwerp, and Rotterdam. The Premier Alliance, through its slot exchanges with MSC, will also deliver enhanced transatlantic options, further enriching service choices on this important corridor. The Gemini Cooperation, however, has chosen to limit its transatlantic service focus, concentrating on key North European ports.

Flexibility and choice
While 36 key port pairs will see direct services from all alliances, offering shippers competitive choices, 139 port pairs will be exclusively serviced by a single alliance, providing unique service propositions.

The distinct approaches taken by each alliance highlight a shift towards service flexibility, with alliances focusing on varying service concepts, transit times, and reliability levels to cater to different market needs.

As new alliances settle into their operational structures and MSC advances as a powerful standalone force, the reshaped East-West trade-lanes, including transatlantic services, will give shippers a broader selection of service configurations.

Metro negotiate rates and volume agreements with a broad portfolio of carriers, including MSC and across the alliances, to offer our shippers the widest range of service offerings, port-pairings and rates.

Our bespoke solutions uniquely reflect our customers requirements and expectations. For further information please EMAIL Chief Commercial Officer, Andy Smith, who would be delighted to review your situation. 

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Air freight surges from Asia to Europe while trans-Pacific faces regulatory hurdles

Oct 30, 2024 | , , , , , , ,

As peak season ramps up, air cargo from Asia to Europe is experiencing strong growth, largely driven by rising demand for eCommerce, while new scrutiny on duty exemptions has led to a significant drop in air cargo volumes from Asia to the United States.

In October, tonnage from Hong Kong to Europe rose sharply, with volumes up 25% compared to last year, as Singles Day, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday fuelled eCommerce demand, setting the stage for a robust fourth quarter.

Rates from Asia to Europe have climbed alongside demand, with average spot prices on the Hong Kong-to-Europe route reaching levels 13% higher than in 2023 and with sustained growth over the past six weeks, there is a strong early indication of a significant peak season.

Rates from Shanghai to Northern Europe hit their highest point this year, up by nearly 19% from the same period last year. This sustained demand for air freight, coupled with elevated rates, is a clear signal of a strong seasonal peak for Europe-bound cargo.

US market impacted by regulatory shifts
Since July, the US has tightened customs checks on imports from China, particularly on goods qualifying under the “de minimis” exemption, which allows low-value shipments to enter duty-free, resulting in a significant drop in air cargo volumes.

While the $800 threshold allowing duty-free entry hasn’t yet been lowered, the mere prospect has affected air cargo flows and should the threshold decrease, there could be a further reduction in air freight volumes from China.

Outlook and considerations
With robust air freight demand on the Asia-Europe corridor showing no signs of slowing, shippers are likely to encounter continued pressure on both rates and capacity. Meanwhile, the trans-Pacific market may experience shifts if regulatory changes reshape the landscape for duty-free imports.

As potential regulatory adjustments and compliance measures loom—particularly with the upcoming US presidential elections—proactive preparation can help mitigate impacts on air cargo operations. In a peak season marked by both growth and uncertainty, staying ahead of these changes will be essential for maintaining smooth, cost-effective logistics.

Our block space agreements (BSA) and capacity purchase agreements (CPA) protect space and capacity on the busiest routes, so share your shipping forecasts and we will fly your cargo at the best rates.

Regardless of your cargo type, size and requirements, we have extremely competitive rate and service combinations, to meet every deadline and budget.

EMAIL Elliot Carlile, Operations Director, for insights, prices and advice on our airfreight, charter and sea/air solutions. 

Category: Hong Kong

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