CBP 1440x1080 1

US tariff refunds move closer as customs systems adapt to process large-scale repayments

Mar 18, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The process of refunding tariffs to US importers is beginning to take shape following the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down duties imposed under emergency powers. 

US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is developing a dedicated system within its Automated Commercial Environment to handle what is expected to be one of the largest refund exercises undertaken by the agency.

The process is being designed around four key stages: claim submission, automated validation and recalculation of duties, review and liquidation, and final refund payment. Importers will be required to submit detailed entry data, which the system will validate before calculating the amounts owed and issuing repayments electronically.

Although progress is being made, the scale of the task remains considerable. Tens of millions of entries are potentially affected, and the volume of data required means the process cannot be implemented immediately. Current timelines suggest the system will take several weeks to become fully operational, with further updates expected as development continues.

Data requirements will increase scrutiny on historical entries

The refund process will require importers to provide a comprehensive dataset covering entries where tariffs were paid. This includes classification details, country of origin, entry numbers, duty amounts and supporting documentation.

As a result, the process is likely to do more than simply return funds. By consolidating this level of information into a single submission, it effectively creates a detailed audit trail of past imports.

For businesses, this increases the importance of data accuracy and consistency. Any discrepancies in classification, valuation or origin could trigger further review, potentially extending timelines or leading to additional compliance checks.

Despite the scale of the opportunity, readiness across the importing community remains relatively low.

Only a small proportion of eligible importers have completed the necessary setup to receive refunds electronically. Until this process is finalised, any payments issued may be rejected, delaying recovery of funds.

At the same time, recent changes to US customs requirements mean that more detailed shipment information is already being requested earlier in the import process. Combined with the refund requirements, this is increasing the administrative burden on importers.

Submitting claims without fully validating the underlying data may expose businesses to additional scrutiny. Conversely, delaying preparation could result in slower access to funds once the system becomes fully operational.

This creates a balance between speed and compliance, where careful preparation is likely to be the most effective strategy.

Technology and expertise will play a critical role

Given the volume of entries and the level of detail required, technology is expected to play an increasingly important role in managing the process.

Automated systems can help organise entry data, validate submissions and identify inconsistencies before claims are filed. At the same time, experienced customs oversight remains essential to ensure that filings are accurate and aligned with regulatory requirements.

For many importers, this combination of technology and expertise will be key to navigating what is likely to be a complex and closely monitored process.

The tariff refund process presents a clear financial opportunity, but it also requires careful handling of data, compliance and submission timing.

Metro combines its US presence, local customs brokerage expertise and advanced systems, including its AI and machine-learning powered CuDoS platform, to support the CBP refund process - helping customers prepare accurate, compliant claims.

If you want to understand what you may be owed and how to approach the refund process with confidence, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director at Metro, to discuss how Metro’s US customs team can support your submission strategy.

Shanghai Hongqiao Airport 1440x1080 1

Air freight markets firm as Chinese New Year front-loading reshapes early-year demand

Feb 5, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , ,

Air freight markets have entered the new year on firmer footing than many expected, with volumes rebounding sharply through January as shippers accelerate movements ahead of earlier-than-usual Chinese New Year factory shutdowns. 

While underlying demand remains uneven, front-loading has concentrated uplift into a narrower time window, particularly on East–West and transpacific trade lanes.

Global air cargo volumes increased by around 5% year on year in the second and third weeks of January, with chargeable weight recovering rapidly from the post-Christmas slowdown. Volumes remain approximately 10% below mid-December peak levels, but are now close to pre-holiday norms and materially stronger than the same period last year, helped by a softer start to 2025.

Asia–Europe demand has accelerated faster than Asia–North America, reflecting front-loaded demand across North and Southeast Asia. Volumes from Asia Pacific to Europe rose by close to 20% year on year in mid-January, with particularly strong growth from Southeast Asian origins alongside solid demand from China and Hong Kong.

The transpacific market is also improving, but with more uneven performance. Asia–US volumes were up by around 6% year on year, masking significant divergence beneath the headline number. Shipments from Southeast Asia to the US have continued to post double-digit growth, while volumes from China and Hong Kong remain below last year’s levels. This pattern reflects ongoing supply-chain diversification rather than a uniform demand recovery.

Front-loading adds to traditional peak

This year’s Chinese New Year dynamic differs markedly from historical norms. Rather than a late-January surge, earlier factory shutdowns have pulled production and uplift forward into the first half of the month. Manufacturing windows are tighter, shipping schedules more compressed and cargo flows more concentrated.

Unlike previous years, ocean freight’s pre-holiday volume spike has been somewhat muted, pushing a greater share of time-critical shipments into the air. Air volumes are firm, but not at the extreme peak levels seen in prior cycles.

Capacity behaviour is now the dominant market influence. Freighter operators have reinstated aircraft quickly following the year-end peak, with freighter capacity rising by more than 15% week on week in early January. Overall global air cargo capacity remains around 7% below mid-December highs, but has rebounded faster than demand in several markets.

This rapid capacity return prevented the sharp rate escalation typically associated with Chinese New Year. Average global air freight rates sitting roughly 10% below mid-December levels, but still slightly above the same period last year. On transpacific lanes, pricing to the US West Coast has largely stabilised, with East Coast rates modestly higher.

Concentrated production cycles, e-commerce demand and high-value cargo flows are sustaining baseline volumes. At the same time, uncertainty around ocean routing and the unlikely return of container services through the Red Sea in H1 continues to underpin air demand on selected lanes.

Securing space at the right time, and at the right cost, requires proactive planning and real-time market insight.

Metro works closely with shippers and carrier partners to manage uplift around peak periods, optimise routing and balance speed against cost as market conditions shift. Our teams monitor capacity, rates and network changes daily to help customers move time-critical cargo with confidence.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Metro’s Managing Director, today to review your air freight strategy and ensure your supply chain stays resilient through the first half of 2026.

Suez convoy

When the Suez Canal Comes Back Online: Hidden Risks for Supply Chains

Oct 28, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

With hopes rising of stabilising conflict in the Red Sea region, analysts are increasingly considering what it would mean if shipping lines resume full use of the Suez Canal route, and it’s not all good news. 

While the shorter route from Asia to Europe might seem like a logistical boon, the modelling suggests there are several material pitfalls ahead that shippers need to be aware of.

Since late 2023, container shipping lines operating on Asia–Europe and Asia–North America routes have avoided the Suez Canal, opting instead to sail around the Cape of Good Hope. This detour has extended transit times and absorbed a significant amount of global container capacity. According to Sea-Intelligence, a full and immediate return to the Suez Canal could release up to 2.1 million TEU of capacity, equivalent to around 6.5 % of the global fleet, back into circulation.

However, this sudden release would create a powerful surge of imports into Europe. Modelling suggests that if all carriers reverted to Suez routing at once, inbound volumes from Asia could double for a period of up to two weeks, pushing overall port handling demand almost 40 % higher than previous peaks. 

Even if the transition were more gradual, spread over six to eight weeks, European ports would still face throughput levels around 10 % above historical highs, straining terminal operations, inland connections, and storage capacity.

Key Areas of Risk

  • European Port Congestion and Hinterland Strain
    European ports are already under pressure. A sudden import surge could stretch terminal capacity, yard space, and inland networks, leading to delays, higher handling costs, and increased demurrage.
  • Short-Term Disruption Despite Long-Term Gains
    While the Suez route offers shorter transits and lower fuel use, the transition back is complex. Network structures have been rebuilt around the Cape, and reverting will require major re-engineering, with temporary schedule changes and service disruption.
  • Lingering Risk and Insurance Costs
    The security issues that diverted ships from Suez persist. Even after reopening, residual war-risk premiums and contingency measures could keep operating costs elevated.
  • Capacity Overshoot and Rate Pressure
    Releasing 2.1 million TEU of capacity is likely to swing supply–demand balance, pushing rates down and while shippers may benefit in the short-term, it is likely that carriers would take drastic action to protect margins.
  • Timing and Readiness
    The timing of a full return remains uncertain. Analysts stress that rushing back before networks and ports are ready could trigger fresh disruption rather than restoring stability.

Metro’s sea freight team are already modelling reopening scenarios to ensure capacity, routing, and contingency plans are ready when trade flows shift back through the Suez Canal. 

EMAIL Managing Director, Andrew Smith to arrange a strategic review of your shipping patterns, risk exposure, and options to protect service continuity and cost efficiency when routes realign.

LHR terminal 5

Growth Sustained, But Reliability and Policy Risks Loom for Air Freight

Sep 17, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Air cargo volumes surprised on the upside again in August, rising by around 5% year on year, the second consecutive month of growth at this pace. Capacity also increased by 4%, though yields came under pressure as rates softened.

Despite the stronger demand, the outlook for Asia–Europe and Asia–US markets in particular remains uncertain, with policy changes and operational constraints threatening to erode recent gains.

Average spot rates from Southeast Asia to North America and Europe declined by around 20% compared with last year, reflecting easing capacity pressure, while North East Asia to North America fell by just 8%. Rates on North East Asia–Europe routes were broadly stable year on year, though down slightly month on month. Transatlantic markets saw rates edge up by 5% annually, but momentum slowed as the summer holiday period cut into demand.

These shifts underline the fragility of recovery. Purchasing Managers’ indices in key exporting economies fell again in August, and American consumer sentiment softened. Growth on Asia–Europe and Asia–US trades has been sustained largely by front-loading and tariff avoidance, rather than stronger consumption.

Regulatory pressures and cost dynamics

The removal of the de minimis exemption for low-value shipments entering the US at the end of August is reshaping flows. While originally targeted at Chinese eCommerce, the new rules apply across all origins. For European and Asian exporters, this adds new administrative steps and costs, particularly for SMEs. Observers expect lower eCommerce volumes into the US, with some share shifting back towards China due to lower production costs.

Average spot rates across global markets fell by about 3% year on year in August, with sharper declines once currency depreciation is factored in. Capacity expansion has kept pressure on yields, even as jet fuel costs dropped by 7% year on year, providing some relief to carriers. The balance between steady demand and competitive pricing remains delicate, with the sustainability of current growth dependent on careful capacity management.

Reliability challenges deepen

Operational reliability has become a significant concern. On-time performance among major carriers slipped from 81% in May to 80% in June, and down again to 77% in July. For context, anything below 90% is considered mediocre, and mid-70s is cause for concern. Among the 22 airlines surveyed, the gap was wide, with punctuality as low as 57%, to a high of 94%.

For shippers, this can translates into missed connections, additional storage costs, and strained deadlines. Contributing factors include congested airports, ground-handling labour shortages, outdated facilities, and limited data integration across the air cargo chain. Without structural improvements, reliability risks may become systemic, undermining the demand growth achieved in recent months.

Outlook

The near-term outlook for air freight is mixed, with improving but weak economic fundamentals and policy changes that add friction. Key routes from Asia to Europe and the US continue to anchor growth, yet they are the lanes under constant pressure from regulatory shifts and declining schedule reliability. Unless carriers can address operational shortcomings and adjust capacity effectively, current momentum may prove short-lived.

Demand is shifting and schedule reliability is a moving target, but Metro continues to secure space and certainty by actively managing capacity, optimising routings, and leveraging trusted carrier partnerships.

On our MVT platform, real-time flight telemetry provides:
– Live aircraft position and route mapping
– Accurate departure/arrival confirmations
– Time-stamped milestones updated in real time
Plan with confidence, optimise inventory, and protect deadlines, even as conditions change.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to learn how our data-driven air freight keeps your supply chain moving.

Category: General

4PL | Automotive | Chemical | China | eCommerce | Economics | Exports | Foodstuffs | General | Hazardous | Health | Hong Kong | India | Insurance | International Trade | Middle East | News | Project | Publishing | Retail | RoRo | Sea | Sea/Air | Short sea | Supply Chain | United States

Latest News in this category