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Continued Airfreight Growth Amid Emerging Challenges

Nov 6, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Global air freight markets have continued to post positive year-on-year growth through September and October, reinforced by stronger than anticipated build up to peak season volumes, but recent indicators point to a moderating pace and emerging challenges that merit close attention.

While recent data points to a slowdown in momentum, overall performance remains solid, underpinned by stable demand, improved belly capacity and expanding connectivity on Asia-Europe and Trans-Pacific routes.

September: Stronger Demand and Broad-Based Recovery

According to IATA’s latest data, global air cargo demand rose nearly 3% year-on-year in September, with international volumes up 3.2%. Capacity grew by roughly 3%, maintaining a healthy balance between supply and demand. The Asia-Pacific region led the expansion with a 6.8% increase in volumes, while Europe recorded a 2.5% rise and Africa posted double-digit growth.

Growth was especially strong on the Europe–Asia (up over 12%) and 10% up within Asia corridors, reflecting continued confidence among exporters and manufacturers leveraging airfreight for time-sensitive and high-value cargo. With global manufacturing activity steadying and cross-border trade recovering, September marked one of the most stable months of the year for international air logistics.

October: Consistent Throughput Amid Changing Conditions

Preliminary October data shows global air cargo volumes continuing to rise (around 4% higher than last year) indicating that demand remains robust heading into the traditional year-end peak. Industry analysts note that the pace of expansion is easing slightly as the market adjusts to higher passenger aircraft capacity and shifting economic conditions, but the overall picture remains positive.

Regional patterns are mixed: Asia continues to drive growth, supported by strong eCommerce flows and resilient intra-regional trade, while the transatlantic market remains steady. Importantly, network connectivity and schedule reliability have improved further, helping shippers achieve greater predictability and shorter transit times across major gateways.

Outlook: Stable, Predictable and Customer-Focused

While the pace of growth is slowing, there are reasons for optimism, including sustained peak season volumes, robust growth across key Asian and African corridors, and ongoing demand from eCommerce and modal shifts due to ocean shipping disruption.

The industry faces headwinds from weakening rate trends and demand imbalances, but steady year-on-year increases, even as momentum tapers, position air freight for a resilient conclusion to 2025.

Overall, air cargo remains on a positive trajectory, delivering growth despite moderating demand and evolving market challenges, with adaptability and strategic planning key for stakeholders navigating this dynamic landscape.

With demand steady and networks evolving, securing lift and predictability is all about smart planning. Metro’s air team proactively monitors capacity, fine-tunes routings, and works with trusted carrier partners to keep your cargo moving—reliably and on time.

Our platform adds real-time confidence with flight telemetry that delivers:

  • Live aircraft position and route mapping
  • Accurate departure/arrival confirmation
  • Time-stamped milestones, updated in real time

Plan with certainty, optimise inventory, and protect service levels—even when conditions change.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to explore smarter, faster, and more resilient air-freight solutions powered by live data and long-standing carrier relationships.

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Asia Air and Ocean Rates Edge Higher — For Now

Oct 29, 2025 | ,

After months of volatility and gradual rate decline, airfreight rates on key Asia–Europe and trans-Pacific lanes are climbing as capacity tightens ahead of a softer-than-usual peak season, while ocean carriers are seeing container spot rates rebound for a second consecutive week thanks to blank sailings and new general rate increases (GRIs).

Although the recovery is uneven, the long-running rate slide has paused, with carriers regaining short-term leverage and shippers facing a more cautious pricing environment. For importers in the US and UK, the message is clear: after months of relative calm, both air and sea markets are entering a phase of firmer pricing, with time-sensitive shippers under growing pressure to book early or lock in space as Q4 unfolds.

Airfreight: Rates Rising Despite a Muted Peak

Airfreight from Asia to Europe and the US is once again trending upward. Average spot rates from key Chinese gateways to Europe rose by more than 13% over the past two weeks, as exporters and forwarders competed for available space.

Despite the uptick, industry forecasts point to a “peak-less” Q4, with no major surge. For now, rates are rising gradually rather than sharply, with seasonal demand keeping the market balanced rather than overheated.

Time-sensitive shipments should be booked early to secure space and mitigate cost spikes. Those with flexible lead times can expect modestly higher pricing but less risk of severe congestion compared with previous years.

Ocean Freight: Carriers Regain Leverage as Rates Rebound

On the ocean side, spot container rates from Asia to Europe and North America have recorded their second consecutive weekly increase, driven by a wave of blanked sailings and mid-month GRIs. Analysts have tracked 93 cancelled voyages in October, as carriers pulled capacity to halt a 17-week rate slide earlier in the year.

The moves seem to have succeeded in stabilising pricing and restoring some balance to supply and demand. However, with the 2026 contract season approaching, shippers should expect more assertive carrier tactics, including the use of temporary GRIs and peak season surcharges to strengthen negotiating positions ahead of annual rate renewals.

Short-Term Outlook: A Firmer but Fragmented Market

  • Book early, particularly for premium cargo. Both air and sea carriers are tightening availability, and last-minute bookings may face higher costs or restricted options.
  • Expect rate volatility rather than steep increases. Demand is improving but not spiking, suggesting moderate and temporary rate rises through year-end.
  • Contract carefully. US and UK importers negotiating 2026 contracts should balance the current uptick in rates against the likelihood of stabilisation by Q1 next year.
  • Monitor capacity and scheduling. Blanked sailings, port disruptions and reduced belly capacity will remain the key short-term risk factors.

Metro’s market specialists continuously monitor rate movements, carrier capacity and contract trends across Asia–Europe and trans-Pacific trade lanes.

If you’re reviewing 2026 contracts, weighing modal choices or facing urgent uplift challenges, our team can help you secure competitive pricing and reliable space.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director to discuss short-term options and long-term strategies for your Asia supply chain

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One Minute Late, Thousands Lost: U.S. Customs Tightens Enforcement Across All Modes

Oct 22, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

In U.S. trade compliance, even a one-minute delay can be costly. Recent cases show importers and logistics partners facing thousands of dollars in penalties simply because mandatory filings were completed moments after official cut-off times.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has stepped up automated monitoring across all major modes. For ocean freight, the Importer Security Filing (ISF-10) and manifest submissions must be lodged 24 hours before vessel loading. In airfreight, the Air Cargo Advance Screening (ACAS) system requires pre-departure data to be transmitted electronically before goods leave origin. And for trucking, particularly on north- and south-bound cross-border movements, the ACE eManifest must be filed at least one hour before arrival at the border. In all cases, late filings, even by seconds can trigger massive penalties or cargo holds.

The increased use of digital systems means there is now almost zero tolerance for timing errors. CBP’s automated compliance tools record submission times to the second, leaving little room for discretion or appeal.

This sharper focus on procedural precision comes amid a wider enforcement drive targeting customs fraud. In a separate case this month, two executives at a Los Angeles-based wholesale clothing importer were jailed and their company hit with a multi-million dollar fine for systematically under-valuing goods to reduce duties.

The message is clear: whether it’s filing times or declared values, compliance margins have all but disappeared.  To avoid finding yourself on the wrong side of a deadline lapse, it is critical that risks are mitigated:

  • Integrate automated alerts in your customs-filing systems so you’re aware of lead-time requirements well in advance.
  • Build a buffer into your internal processes: treat the submission cutoff as real time, and build in a buffer to allow for any delay.
  • Ensure your documentation and data (B/L numbers, consignee information, classification) are final and entered before the time cut-off — incomplete entries are a common cause of last-minute corrections and delay.

The Critical Take-Away

For businesses based in the UK or EU working with U.S. supply chains, this is a reminder that compliance deadlines are not just internal housekeeping, they carry real cost. When operational bottlenecks or last-minute changes push a filing even seconds late, the financial consequences can be large. Work closely with your U.S. customers and brokers to ensure that your entry process is streamlined, accurately filed and firmly upstream of any bottleneck.

Metro’s U.S. brokerage teams combine deep CBP compliance expertise with our advanced CuDoS customs automation platform, ensuring every declaration meets filing deadlines accurately and on time. EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to learn how our integrated systems and on-the-ground U.S. presence can help safeguard your business and keep your supply chain fully compliant.

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Airfreight Cools; Growth Still Building

Oct 14, 2025 | , , , , , ,

Even though air cargo is easing back after a brisk summer, global tonnages rose in the third quarter, with eCommerce redrawing lanes and hub dynamics, while UK airport expansions point to a more connected decade ahead.

Worldwide air cargo tonnages were up 4% YoY in Q3 2025 and while average spot prices were down 3% over the same period, it signals a market that’s cooling from 2024’s highs rather than falling. 

IATA’s cargo data reinforces this picture: CTKs, a key measure of air-freight volume, rose over 5% in July and 4% in August, indicating capacity is expanding but broadly in line with demand.

Analysts continue to forecast demand growth of 3 to 4% for 2025, noting that while September momentum moderated after a surprisingly strong summer it is evidence of stabilisation rather than slump. 

The biggest structural change is in cross-border eCommerce, with operators pivoting to high frequency, later cut-off and belly-hold connectivity over traditional bulk consolidations. 

While tariff hikes and the end of de minimis exemptions have softened traffic flows from China and Hong Kong to the USA, trade-lanes from China and Hong Kong into Europe have gained share, with European hubs absorbing tech, parts, components and small-package uplifts.

Primary winners include:

  • Liege where July and August cargo figures are up 14% and 29% YoY, with YTD volumes up 13% at almost 850,000 tonnes.
  • East Midlands handled 375,000 tonnes of freight in 2024/25 and has flagged surging express volumes tied to export growth. 
  • Leipzig/Halle processes around 2,000 tonnes per night for Europe-wide next-day delivery, underlining its position as Europe’s eCommerce workhorse. 
  • Cologne/Bonn handles 850,000 tonnes annually, with envious wide-body links, including the addition of India–Europe capacity this year. 

More UK lift on the way

  • Gatwick second runway approved, with reports suggesting operations by 2029. With almost two-thirds of UK air cargo moving in passenger belly-hold, air cargo tonnage could double. 
  • East Midlands continues to invest around its all-cargo ecosystem and free-port, positioning. 
  • Heathrow is already the UK’s most important port by value and approval for a 3rd runway will enhance its role as a global hub for imports and provide unparalleled access for British businesses to international markets.

Capacity Challenges Still Remain

About 4m tonnes of eCommerce was carried by air last year and that will be exceeded in 2025, yet new capacity cannot be added fast enough, with Boeing and Airbus unable to deliver the numbers needed. The result is a squeezed market, with carriers competing for capacity and aircraft flying harder. 

On Asia–Europe, 2023 saw 1.2× more lift east-to-west and yields 1.6× higher than the return; in early 2025, the yield gap widened to 2.6×. Similar imbalances appear on transpacific lanes, creating quasi one-way flows that force changes to freighter scheduling, network design and even fleet choices. In short, eCommerce is growing faster than airframes can, and the economics are shifting with it.

Outlook

Air freight is adapting to a new environment, with softer rates, steady volumes steady and ascendant eCommerce. With European hubs thriving and the UK set to add runway and cargo capability, the sector’s medium-term outlook is positive, but shippers need to stay agile to see the benefits. 

Metro gives you the visibility, agility, and expertise to adapt to shifting trade flows and capacity constraints. 

EMAIL managing director, Andy Smith, to learn how we can strengthen your supply chain by actively managing capacity, optimising routings, and leveraging trusted carrier partnerships.

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