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Air cargo under pressure as peak season looms

Sep 4, 2024 | , , , , , , , , ,

With capacity already strained and further challenges expected from potential labour strikes and reduced belly capacity in the final quarter, shippers are under increasing pressure to secure cargo space ahead of the peak season.

Strong demand
According to IATA’s latest figures global air cargo demand surged by 14% year-on-year in July, marking the eighth consecutive month of double-digit growth. This increase is largely driven by ongoing eCommerce expansion and disruptions such as the Red Sea crisis.

Despite the high demand, capacity only grew by 8%, pushing load factors up significantly and intensifying the pressure on available space.

The Asia Pacific region has seen particularly strong growth, with demand up 18% year-on-year in August, while North American carriers recorded an 9% increase, even amid disruptions like Hurricane Beryl. The Asia-North America trade lane experienced an 11% rise, and transatlantic routes also saw rates climb  in August compared to July, with expectations of further increases as the year progresses.

Preparing for peak season
With the peak shipping season starting in September, air cargo demand is expected to remain robust, particularly in high-demand regions like Asia Pacific. However, capacity constraints are already evident, with flights on many lanes fully booked. The market faces potential additional pressure from reduced belly capacity in Q4 and the possibility of strikes at US East Coast ports, which could exacerbate the existing challenges.

Shifting capacity
The ongoing Red Sea crisis has disrupted traditional shipping routes, leading to a shift towards air freight as shippers seek more reliable alternatives. This shift, combined with the seasonal reduction of capacity on other lanes, has left the market vulnerable to further disruptions, potentially causing backlogs and price spikes.

As carriers redirect freighter capacity to the high-demand Asia market and reduce capacity on other routes, the market’s fragility increases. The anticipation of a strong peak season, coupled with the current tight capacity, means that shippers must act quickly to secure space and avoid significant disruptions.

Outlook and recommendations
Given the current market conditions, shippers are strongly advised to plan ahead and secure air freight space as soon as possible. The combination of high demand, potential capacity shortages, and the risk of labour disruptions could lead to an overheated market towards the end of the year, with rates likely to continue rising.

Early booking and careful planning are essential to navigate the challenging air freight landscape in the coming months, so please share your forecasts with us as early as possible so that we can ensure there are no disruptions to your supply chain.

For urgent, valuable and sensitive shipments we have a range of airfreight, charter and sea/air solutions, with block space agreements (BSA) and capacity purchase agreements (CPA) to protect space and capacity on the busiest routes.

Regardless of your cargo type, size and requirements, we have extremely competitive rate and service combinations, to meet every deadline and budget.

EMAIL Elliot Carlile, Operations Director, for insights, prices and advice. 

strike at port

Ongoing labour disputes threaten global supply chains

Sep 4, 2024 | , , , , , , , ,

While recent developments in India and Canada suggest some relief from labour disputes, the threat of strikes continues to loom over port operations and global supply chains. The situation remains precarious, especially with the added complications from Red Sea diversions, which could magnify the impact of any further industrial action.

Typically, strikes at ports and other supply chain hubs cause only localised disruptions. However, the current climate is fraught with uncertainty. Sea-Intelligence has warned that even a single day of strike action on the U.S. East Coast could create a six-day backlog to clear containers.

If a strike were to last a week in early October, its effects might not be fully resolved until mid-November, while a two-week strike’s impact might be felt well into 2025, further straining already fragile supply chains.

Recent resolutions

Canada
The Canadian government acted within a day to end a rail strike that began on 23rd August, ordering Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Canadian National (CN) to resume operations and enter binding arbitration with the Teamsters Union. The Canada Industrial Relations Board extended expired collective agreements until new ones are finalised, temporarily safeguarding the supply chain.

However, the union has challenged this decision by filing four separate appeals with the Federal Court of Appeal, suggesting that the risk of further strike action may not be entirely averted.

India
Potential nationwide strike action involving 12 major ports from the 28th August was avoided when the government agreed to wage increases and additional benefits for around 20,000 port workers. Union leaders insist that the strike threat played a crucial role in securing the deal, preventing significant disruption during the peak export season.

Ongoing threats

Germany
The threat of strikes at major ports remains, as the trade union ver.di has rejected the latest offer from the Central Association of German Seaport Operators (ZDS). With the contract now expired, warning strikes have already occurred in key ports such as Hamburg and Bremerhaven. Ver.di is pressing ZDS to return to negotiations with a more substantial offer, raising concerns about potential disruptions if an agreement is not reached soon.

United States
The risk of strikes at East and Gulf Coast ports is growing, with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) threatening action from 1st October. Container spot rates from Asia to the U.S. have remained high, and carriers acknowledge that a strike could sustain these elevated rates through the end of the year.

The ILA has been holding ‘wage scale meetings’ in New Jersey this week, where delegates are reviewing master contract demands and preparing strike committees from Maine to Texas in anticipation of the 1st October deadline.

East Coast port employers, represented by the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), have stated that they have been unable to secure a meeting with the ILA but remain committed to negotiating a new agreement with the union’s leadership.

The early peak season, driven by shippers eager to front-load holiday goods, has already caused concerns about overcapacity. A strike could exacerbate these issues, leaving carriers with limited options to mitigate the impact.

As negotiations remain tense and the risk of disruptions continues to grow, businesses and supply chain managers must stay vigilant and proactive in their planning. Unresolved labour disputes could have significant consequences for global trade, particularly as the year-end approaches.

We have contingency plans in place to avoid ports likely to be most affected by strikes, as well as alternative routes and entry points. Please share your forecasts as early as possible so that we can mitigate possible issues ahead of time.

To discuss these issues and how Metro can protect your supply chain, please EMAIL Andrew Smith, Chief Commercial Officer.

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Challenges in ocean freight: Capacity, congestion, and resilience

Sep 4, 2024 | , , , , , , ,

The ongoing disruption in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, which started with the hijacking of a vessel nearly ten months ago, has led to a substantial reduction in available container vessel capacity, driving up freight rates, intensifying port congestion, and exacerbating equipment shortages.

The impact of this crisis, second only to the pandemic, has caused widespread disruptions, with global ocean freight continuing to grapple with significant challenges.

Blanked sailings
To counter the drop in demand and falling container spot rates, ocean carriers are implementing a high number of blanked sailings, particularly ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday. The cancellation rate for scheduled sailings in September is currently 10% across major trade routes, with the transpacific accounting for 51%, Asia-Europe 28%, and the transatlantic 21%.

Despite the recent softening, freight rates remain significantly higher than last year – +350% on the Asia-North Europe route and +150-180% on Transpacific routes. Events such as the looming threat of port strikes, the introduction of new import tariffs and an early Chinese New Year could keep rates elevated, even in the face of softer demand.

US West coast volume surge
As the peak shipping season approaches, the US West Coast ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are preparing for a surge in import volumes.
Ocean carriers are deploying 28 additional “extra-loader” vessels to handle the expected influx, driven by strong consumer demand and the diversion of cargo from the US East and Gulf coasts due to potential labour disruptions.

Economic resilience is likely to sustain high import levels through the end of the year, further increasing activity at these key ports.

Ongoing Port congestion
Global port congestion remains challenging with hot spots in Asia and India in particular. The delivery of new container ships and fewer overall blank sailings in recent weeks, along with the Red Sea diversions, are absorbing the added capacity and demand remains high, resulting in vessel bunching and berthing delays at major ports in China, the USA and South America.

The risk of further supply chain disruptions persists, with potential threats from labour strikes and the increasing impact of severe weather events linked to climate change.

Red Sea diversions soak up equipment
Container equipment situation in Asia, and China in particular, remains challenging but is improving with India now becoming the main hotspot.
Ocean carriers and container leasing companies have booked all available container production slots at Chinese manufacturers until mid-October, following record-high deliveries earlier in the year. In the first seven months of 2024 alone, container deliveries increased tenfold compared to the same period in 2023.

The availability of 40ft high-cube containers has tightened significantly, putting additional pressure on carriers and manufacturers to meet delivery schedules amid strong export growth from Asia and ongoing port congestion.

As the industry navigates these complex challenges, the focus remains on managing capacity, stabilising operations, and mitigating the risks posed by economic and environmental factors.

Ongoing demand for ocean freight and challenges in capacity suggest a complex and potentially turbulent peak season ahead.

We recommend talking to us now, if you have high-priority orders and sharing your shipping forecasts, so that we can secure your space, on the services that meet your deadlines, at the best possible rates.
To learn how we can safeguard and enhance your ocean supply chain, please EMAIL our Chief Commercial Officer, Andy Smith. 

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Sustainability focus

Sep 4, 2024 | , , , ,

When managed effectively, supply chains not only reduce costs and boost profitability but also play a crucial role in sustainability. The impact of climate change has underscored the need to improve supply chains to protect our ecosystem and conserve natural resources for future generations.

As the global push for decarbonisation intensifies, both the maritime and aviation sectors are under pressure to adopt sustainable practices. Metro has been at the forefront of these efforts, investing in new fuel technologies that will support the green transition.

Ocean
In July, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) set a new climate strategy aiming for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by around 2050. Interim targets include reducing emissions by 20%-30% by 2030 and 70%-80% by 2040, compared to 2008 levels. To achieve the 2030 target with green fuels alone, over one-third of international shipping would need to transition to low or zero-emission fuels within 5-6 years, which is highly challenging.

However, the IMO could meet its 2030 goal with only 10% of ships using green fuels if it also significantly improves energy efficiency. This would require increasing the energy efficiency target from 22% to 38% by 2030, which could involve widespread adoption of wind technologies and reduced operating speeds.

Shipping CEOs have united to push for faster decarbonisation in global maritime transport, advocating for an end date for fossil fuel-only ships and urging the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to establish regulations that will speed up the shift to green fuels.

Their joint declaration outlines four key regulations:
1. Set an end date for new fossil fuel-only ships and establish a timeline for greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity standards to encourage investment in green technologies
2. Implement GHG pricing to make green fuels competitive with traditional fuels during the transition
3. Allow vessel pooling for GHG compliance, where a group’s overall performance counts, accelerating decarbonisation
4. Adopt a Well-to-Wake (lifecycle) GHG approach to guide investments and avoid stranded assets

LNG is seen as the most practical current solution for decarbonisation, with the ability to transition to net-zero carbon fuels like bio-LNG and e-LNG. LNG-fuelled ships are growing in numbers, with over 1,000 expected by 2027, compared to just 36 a decade ago.

Air
The aviation industry is relying on SAF to achieve 65% of its net-zero emissions target by 2050, but current production is a fraction of the 500 million tonnes needed annually by 2050 and the challenge now lies in financing, not engineering.

Investors are being urged to fund large-scale SAF ventures, as this could lead to a new industry that transforms aviation, creates jobs, and offers substantial financial returns.

Redirecting some of the $7 trillion in fossil fuel government subsidies could significantly accelerate the shift to sustainable fuels, with countries like Japan, Singapore, and the US already incentivising SAF production.

Metro has been investing in Sustainable Aviation Fuel for years, and was the first forwarder to join the Air France KLM Martinair Cargo (AFKLMP Cargo) SAF programme.

Grant Liddell, Metro’s managing director said. “We are proud to take this collaborative approach directly with the airlines. Air France and KLM have been pioneering SAF since 2009 and Metro’s participation will help fund the research and development, which can increase production and make SAF available in greater quantities and in more locations.”

Metro has been certified carbon neutral for three years and is committed to extending this zero-emission strategy as far down customers’ supply chains as possible. 

The same toolkit we use to measure, reporting and offset our emissions, to achieve carbon neutrality, is available ‘free of charge’ to our customers.

Part of our MVT supply chain platform, the ECO module monitors the energy emissions, emission costs and CO2 equivalent emissions, of customers’ consignments, by every mode. 

Reports and key eco statistics related to their movements, allow them to see which areas will benefit most from emissions offsetting and where efforts can have the most impact.

To request a demo or discuss your requirements, please EMAIL Ian Powell.

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