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Stay Ahead with Metro’s Ocean Freight Market Update

Mar 5, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

In the ever-changing world of global trade, staying informed is not just an advantage, it’s a critical necessity. That’s why Metro provides the Ocean Freight Market Update, a comprehensive, data-driven report designed to help businesses navigate the complexities of container shipping.

Subscribers to this monthly report gain valuable insights into spot, short- and long-term rate trends, carrier reliability, port congestion, canceled sailings, sustainability initiatives, and more—ensuring they can make informed, strategic decisions in real-time.

Highlights from the March 2025 Ocean Freight Market Update

Rate Developments: Despite attempts to impose general rate increases (GRIs), rates on Far East Westbound trade lanes have softened. Volatility is expected through April, with Asia-Europe lanes facing capacity shortages.

Schedule Reliability & Port Congestion: Global vessel reliability dipped slightly to 50-55%, while major ports like Singapore, Busan, and Piraeus continue to experience significant congestion.

Bunker & Biofuels Transition: The shipping industry is accelerating its shift toward decarbonisation, but new EU carbon emissions surcharges are increasing costs.

Supply & Demand Outlook: An 8% increase in capacity versus just a 3% rise in demand suggests blank sailings will be necessary to balance market conditions.

Red Sea Transits: Major carriers continue to avoid the Suez Canal due to ongoing security concerns, maintaining Cape of Good Hope reroutes.

Why Subscribe?
Metro’s Ocean Freight Market Update is an unbiased, intelligence-driven resource backed by data from leading industry sources. In a landscape shaped by supply chain disruptions, regulatory shifts, and market fluctuations, having access to timely, expert insight is more critical than ever.

Subscribe now to receive monthly updates straight to your inbox and stay ahead in the dynamic world of ocean freight.

Contact your Key Account Director, or EMAIL Lucy Hulston to subscribe and receive the latest update.

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UK trade update

Mar 5, 2025 | , , , ,

The UK continues to develop its global trade strategy, advancing negotiations with key partners while navigating post-Brexit relations with the EU.

With multiple trade discussions in progress and regulatory changes affecting movement between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, businesses should prepare for evolving trade conditions in the coming months.

Northern Ireland trade lane: transition deadline approaches

From 31st March 2025, updated processes for parcel movements between Great Britain and Northern Ireland will take effect, marking a significant transition for businesses.

  • Private individuals in Northern Ireland will continue to receive parcels from Great Britain without customs declarations, tariffs, or the need to present goods to customs, provided they are for personal use.
  • Business-to-business (B2B) parcel movements will follow freight procedures, with traders requiring authorisation under the UK Internal Market Scheme (UKIMS). Either the sender or recipient must be authorised to declare goods as ‘not at risk’, ensuring they qualify for duty-free movement under the Simplified Process for Internal Market Movements (SPIMM).
  • B2B goods that do not qualify for SPIMM will require a full customs declaration, reinforcing the importance of ensuring compliance with eligibility criteria.

With NIRMS, UKIMS, SPIMM, and IMMI frameworks creating a complex regulatory landscape, businesses are encouraged to seek guidance to ensure compliance. Metro offers support in navigating these schemes, including post-Brexit audit reviews to assess eligibility for retrospective duty reclaims.

UK trade negotiations: expanding global agreements

The UK is actively pursuing new and expanded trade agreements to strengthen its global economic position.

  • Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP): The UK formally joined in December 2024, becoming the first European country to enter this major trade bloc, enhancing access to 11 key markets.
  • India and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): Negotiations with India and the GCC are currently the highest priority, with discussions ongoing to finalise agreements.
  • South Korea, Switzerland, and Israel: The UK is working to deepen market access and streamline trade flows with these nations through revised agreements.

EU trade discussions: cautious expectations for change

Despite renewed diplomatic engagement between the UK and the EU, businesses should not expect imminent changes to existing trade arrangements.

Since the UK’s government change in July 2024, there has been a positive shift in UK-EU relations, yet uncertainty remains regarding what the UK seeks from a proposed trade ‘reset’. European officials have emphasised the need for clarity, particularly on youth mobility, but discussions remain in the early stages, with Brexit-related complexities still shaping the dialogue.

With UK-EU delegations set to meet in May, expectations are that the summit will establish a foundation for future talks rather than delivering immediate policy changes.

  • Supply chain operators should not anticipate short-term relief from Brexit-related challenges.
  • No significant changes to frontier processes appear likely, with both sides committed to fully implementing the current trade and cooperation agreement before considering modifications.
  • SMEs remain disproportionately affected by post-Brexit trade changes, with industry groups urging policymakers to prioritise reducing red tape.

As the UK’s trade strategy evolves, we will share important developments, particularly regarding EU discussions and the phased implementation of new trade agreements.

Navigating the complexities of international trade requires real-time insights and expert guidance. At Metro, we continuously monitor market influences and evolving regulations, to help you de-risk your supply chain and maximise opportunities.

With over 40 years of expertise in multimodal transport and customs brokerage, we lead the way with CuDoS, our automated customs declaration platform, ensuring swift compliance with UK and EU trade regimes.

Make informed decisions with Metro’s strategic support. For trade insights and risk management advice, EMAIL Laurence Burford, Chief Financial Officer. For customs and regulatory solutions, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director.

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Ocean freight market report

Feb 19, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Global shipping dynamics are shifting, with rates under pressure, 5% growth in global container shipping capacity, and the impact of the US’ new trade policies.

The ocean freight market is navigating a complex landscape, marked by operational and regulatory shifts. The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) has dropped since the start of the year, primarily due to the resolution of the US East Coast port strike. However, freight rates remain volatile, driven by service disruptions, alliance reshuffling, and geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea. Market capacity is also under pressure, with 30% of Far East westbound sailings expected to be blanked.

Capacity

Liner capacity growth has slowed following a record increase in 2024 and is now forecasted at 5% for 2025.

  • Global port congestion hit a three-month high (10.3%), particularly at Chinese ports before Lunar New Year.
  • The liner sector remains fully utilised, with only 0.2% of vessels (30 ships) idle.
  • 16,000 TEU vessels are becoming the new standard as carriers shift away from ultra-large container ships (ULCS).

From February to April 2025, the ocean freight market is expected to be volatile, driven by the post-Lunar New Year slowdown and carrier alliance reshuffles:

  • February: Capacity shortages are anticipated on Asia–North America and Asia–Europe lanes, with Transatlantic routes also under pressure, potentially increasing freight rates.
  • March: Market balance may improve as new alliance networks stabilise, though capacity constraints could persist from Asia.
  • April: Conditions should stabilise.

Rates & Schedule Reliability

  • Freight rates are in decline across all trades, with:
    • SCFI falling 17% since the beginning of 2025.
    • WCI down 12%.
    • Drewry World Container Index 118% higher than pre-pandemic.
  • Despite strong demand leading up to Chinese New Year, rates have continued to fall due to service disruptions and alliance changes.
  • Global schedule reliability has remained between 50%-55%, but port congestion has reached a three-month high.
  • 10.5% of the global fleet (3.3 million TEU) is currently stuck in port congestion.

Demand Outlook

Demand trends remain mixed, with a rush in US-bound cargo ahead of potential tariff hikes, while the traditional seasonal slowdown is following Lunar New Year.

  • December PMI data shows continued global growth disparities:
    • The US is outperforming other developed economies.
    • India leads emerging markets.
    • Global business confidence has declined.

Looking ahead the Far East is projected to remain a critical driver of global container trade, contributing significantly to the 3.3% CAGR expected from 2026 to 2028. The region’s demand is forecasted to grow by 2.9%, underpinned by robust intra-Asia trade and strong export performance, particularly to North America and Europe. 

Despite ongoing trade challenges, including regulatory and tariff impacts, the Far East’s economic resilience, led by China and India, is expected to support continued growth in freight volumes.

On the Transatlantic, demand is projected to remain stable, with North America expected to see a 2.5% increase in trade volumes. However, carriers are reducing capacity on this route, potentially impacting freight rates and capacity availability. The shift towards smaller vessels and the restructuring of carrier alliances may lead to temporary disruptions, but the market is likely to stabilise as the new network configurations take effect.

Market Developments

The US continues to lead developed markets, while China’s exports have exceeded expectations despite export tax rebate cuts. However, market outlook was already cautious, with business confidence waning amid concerns over economic growth, particularly in Europe and the UK. And now the de-stabilising impact of President Trump’s aggressive trade policies need to be factored in.

  • Market imbalances persist across key trade routes:
    • Asia outbound capacity is strained, creating pressure on freight rates.
    • The Transatlantic trade lane has seen capacity reductions, with carriers downsizing vessels.
    • The upcoming alliance reshuffle is expected to disrupt operations, leading to short-term demand surges until new networks stabilise.
    • Demand exceeds capacity on multiple routes, particularly:
      • Asia–North America
      • Asia–Europe
      • Asia–Middle East
    • Some regional markets are more balanced, but capacity pressures remain high.

Conclusion

The ocean freight market continues to challenge, with rate volatility, capacity constraints, and shifting trade policies. While global liner capacity is set to grow by 5% in 2025, port congestion and alliance reshuffles are contributing to market instability, particularly on Asia–North America and Asia–Europe routes.

Despite the post-Lunar New Year slowdown and the impact of new US trade policies, demand from the Far East remains a key growth driver, underpinned by strong intra-Asia trade and export flows to North America and Europe. 

As geopolitical risks and market disruptions continue to impact global shipping, building resilient supply chains and ensuring budgetary certainty, to mitigate risks and maintain stability, are more crucial than ever.

At Metro, our fixed-rate agreements on popular shipping routes provide a practical safeguard against rate volatility, offering predictable costs for effective budgeting. Whether you’re managing high-volume trade lanes or seeking greater stability for your supply chain, our tailored solutions can help you thrive in 2025.

To discover how Metro can strengthen your business and provide peace of mind, EMAIL our Managing Director, Andy Smith, today.

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Seven supply chain shocks in seven weeks

Feb 19, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Just seven weeks into 2025, global supply chains have already faced a whirlwind of challenges.

From industrial action to trade barriers and shifting alliances, businesses must stay agile to navigate ongoing disruptions. Here are seven of the most impactful developments so far this year.

1. US east coast port strike averted (8th January)
A major disruption was narrowly avoided as the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a tentative six-year agreement. The deal, approved on 7 February, prevented a strike that could have crippled US east coast ports for months. A final vote on 25 February will confirm its ratification.

2. Uncertainty over Suez Canal return (19th January)
Despite a fragile ceasefire in Gaza, container ships will not be returning to the Red Sea anytime soon. Carriers remain cautious, fearing renewed instability and prioritising the established Cape of Good Hope diversions. Even if ships do resume transit, severe disruption is expected, with schedules taking up to two months to stabilise.

3. Trump’s trade policies spark concerns (20th January)
Following his inauguration, President Trump swiftly reignited trade tensions, threatening tariffs on Colombia, China, Canada, and Mexico. Proposals include a 25% levy on steel and aluminium from Canada and Mexico, with reciprocal tariffs also being considered for UK imports. The potential trade war could have widespread consequences for global supply chains.

4. US air cargo demand under threat (1st February)
Trump’s decision to impose a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports and temporarily suspend the de minimis exemption for low-value Chinese shipments has sent shockwaves through the air freight sector. While the exemption was reinstated, changes to eCommerce regulations could significantly disrupt air cargo flows into the US, which is expected to receive 1.4 billion eCommerce packages this year.

5. New Asia shipping alliances reshape trade (2nd February)
The long-anticipated shift from three major container alliances (Ocean, THEA, 2M) to four key players (Ocean, Premier, Gemini, MSC) is now in effect. Asia-North Europe scheduled liner capacity will shrink by 11%, yet the number of weekly sailings will increase from 26 to 28. These changes will reshape global shipping networks for years to come.

6. European road freight rates stabilising (4th February)
After three years of decline, European road freight spot rates may have hit their lowest point. According to the European Road Freight Rate Benchmark, spot rates fell just 1% year-on-year in Q4 2024. While demand remains weak, cost pressures have kept rates 15% above pre-pandemic levels, with short-term volatility expected.

7. Carriers cut sailings to stabilise rates (14th February)
Shipping lines are aggressively blanking sailings to ease the transition to new alliance schedules and sustain freight rates. Between 17 February and 23 March, 51 sailings have been cancelled across key east-west trade routes, with February’s cancellations rising to 133 from 104 in January. Further capacity withdrawals and a general rate increase (GRI) could follow if demand fails to recover.

With trade disputes, shipping realignments, and geopolitical instability shaping global supply chains, the first quarter of 2025 has already presented significant challenges.

Staying ahead requires proactive strategy adjustments to mitigate risks and build resilience. That’s why we share these insights and why your Metro account management team is always by your side, ready to provide expert advice, share knowledge, and develop bespoke solutions tailored to your supply chain needs.

For high-level support, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director.

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