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Preparing for Air Cargo Peak Season Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Jul 9, 2025 | , , , , , , ,

Air freight markets are entering the second half of 2025 in a state of volatility, as early signs of peak season demand clash with consumer caution and a shifting tariff landscape.

Despite President Trump suggesting that the next round of US tariffs may not take effect until August, the legal reality is firmer: the executive order issued on 9 April mandates that reciprocal tariffs will be enforced from 12:01 am EDT on 9 July, unless a further Executive Order is made. This deadline is already influencing behaviour across key trade routes and sectors, with shippers attempting to front-load freight and adjust their sourcing strategies.

As expected, June saw a seasonal lull across many air freight corridors. Rates out of Hong Kong to both Europe and North America softened slightly month-on-month, falling by low single digits, while year-on-year declines were sharper to North America, reflecting weaker consumer demand and reduced eCommerce.

The removal of de minimis exemptions combined with the imposition of tariffs on many goods, has triggered a pronounced shift in flows: air cargo volumes from China to the US have fallen around 15% since March, while rates have dropped by more than 15% over the same period. In contrast, tonnage from China to Europe is up 15% year-on-year, supported by stable rates and reallocated capacity.

Transatlantic lanes also reflect the summer dynamic. With increased belly-hold capacity from passenger flights, rates between Europe and North America dipped slightly in June. However, spot freight prices on both directions of the transatlantic remain higher than a year ago, suggesting underlying resilience.

Spot Market Dominance and Capacity Volatility
One of the most significant developments this quarter has been the dramatic shift toward the spot market on Asia Pacific–US lanes. By June, more than 70% of general cargo bookings on these routes were made on spot terms, up from around 50% in the same period last year. This trend reflects carrier uncertainty, volatile demand, and diverging expectations around tariff timing and impact.

For comparison, spot market activity on Asia-Europe lanes has remained relatively stable, with roughly 47% of cargo moving under short-term rates. The growing disparity between contract and spot pricing points to the challenges of forecasting capacity needs in politically sensitive markets.

Peak Season Prospects: Uncertainty Over Tradition
Traditionally, air freight demand accelerates from mid-August as retailers ramp up inventory for back-to-school, autumn sales, and the holiday period. However, the current market is anything but traditional. Consumer confidence remains fragile due to rising living costs and trade friction, with the largest shippers increasingly hesitant to commit to long-term air freight contracts.

Global air cargo volumes rose by just 1% year-on-year in June, with capacity growth outpacing demand for the first time in over 18 months. This imbalance is likely to pressure rates across many lanes, even as jet fuel prices spike and geopolitical risks persist.

While some Southeast Asia–US routes saw modest rate gains in June, buoyed by pre-tariff demand and capacity rebalancing, overall expectations for Q3 remain muted. Analysts warn that weaker consumer spending and ongoing tariff complications could limit any meaningful peak season surge, especially on transpacific routes.

Outlook 
Despite the structural pressures, there are opportunities for shippers in the current environment. Short-term rates are more flexible, capacity is more available than in past peak seasons, and carriers are actively repositioning services to match evolving demand patterns.

The real wildcard remains US trade policy. Without a new executive order, 9 July marks the start of a new tariff chapter that will ripple across global supply chains, just as the air freight industry typically gears up for its busiest season.

Now is the time to plan ahead.
With more flexible short-term rates, improved capacity availability, and carriers adapting to demand shifts, shippers have a unique window to secure cost-effective and reliable air freight solutions before peak season pressure builds.

EMAIL our managing director, Andrew Smith today to assess your options and take advantage of current market conditions.

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Survey Highlights Why Supply Chains Must Evolve or Fall Behind

Jul 9, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , ,

Global businesses must prepare for a fundamental overhaul of their supply chains, as the cumulative impact of geopolitical tension, climate volatility, cost inflation and sourcing risk reshapes the logistics landscape.

According to a recent survey by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), 87% of leading global companies are planning to restructure their global supply chains. Over half have already suffered serious procurement cost increases, with more than one in five citing disruption from climate-related events such as wildfires and flooding. 

In addition to economic uncertainty and climate-related disruption, businesses are contending with fractured supplier networks, unstable trade relationships, and growing geopolitical risk. Ongoing conflict in Europe, heightened tensions between global powers, and renewed unrest in the Middle East are all adding urgency. 

The Challenges BCG Identified:

  • 57% of firms have suffered supply shortages
  • 55% are being hit hard by procurement cost inflation
  • 33% see energy prices as a major threat
  • 23% have experienced disruption from climate events
  • 20% cite global geopolitical tensions as a business risk

Fragmented supplier networks and over-reliance on vulnerable sourcing channels are being exposed, yet fewer than half of companies are using digital tools to spot weaknesses or manage risk proactively. While many are now diversifying suppliers, near-shoring and conducting more frequent evaluations, most remain trapped in reactive decision-making.

Although 40% of businesses now carry out regular supplier assessments and 36% have adopted dual or multi-sourcing strategies, the majority still operate reactively. Only 45% are using digital tools to anticipate and address supply chain vulnerabilities before they escalate. The result is a growing gap between firms that can adapt, and those that can only respond.

From Restructuring to Resilience
The shift is clear: supply chains need to be more agile, digitally enabled, and less geographically dependent. But this transformation doesn’t happen through strategy alone. It requires digital processes, and partners built to handle change.

That’s where Metro’s supply chain control platform, MVT, provides a distinct advantage. Developed to unify procurement, freight, fulfilment and inventory management, MVT transforms fragmented operations into a connected, insight-driven system—giving businesses the visibility and control needed to stay ahead of disruption.

Whether you’re managing multi-country supplier networks, tracking shipment milestones in real time, or integrating with your ERP and sales platforms, MVT enables data-backed decisions at every stage. It’s more than visibility—it’s the backbone for scalable, resilient logistics.

With Metro’s global reach, sector expertise, and fully integrated services across freight, customs, warehousing and fulfilment, we help customers re-engineer supply chains that are responsive, cost-efficient, and future-ready.

Unlock the power of connected logistics
Disruption may be constant—but with the right digital tools and operational model, your supply chain doesn’t have to be vulnerable.

EMAIL our managing director, Andrew Smith, to learn how MVT can give you total control of your supply chain.

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Real-Time Visibility Takes Flight

Jun 24, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

New live flight tracking powers smarter airfreight decisions with MVT Track & Trace.

We’re excited to share a powerful new upgrade to MVT Track & Trace, Metro’s shipment visibility platform, that delivers even greater control and confidence when managing your airfreight.

Our latest enhancement introduces real-time flight telemetry tracking, giving you an instant, accurate view of your air cargo’s location, live and in motion. For every shipment, you can now follow its journey across an interactive map, complete with precise flight paths and positional data updated in real time.

Whether you’re monitoring standard freight or time-critical consignments, this new feature transforms how you track air movements, with benefits that include:

  • Live flight tracking for every airfreight shipment
  • Visual map interface showing the current aircraft position and route
  • Accurate flight data, including departure, ETA, and arrival confirmation
  • Time-stamped milestone events, clearly logged for full shipment oversight

Each key status change is automatically captured and displayed through a clean, user-friendly interface, so you’re always in the know, without the need for chasing updates.

This level of transparency is especially valuable when speed and certainty matter most. By enriching your operational visibility, our new flight telemetry feature supports smarter decisions, tighter planning, and more resilient supply chains.

At Metro, we’re committed to continuous innovation that makes logistics smarter, faster, and easier to manage. This upgrade to MVT Track & Trace is just one of the ways we’re helping you stay ahead.

Want to see it in action? Log in to your MVT portal today or EMAIL Ian Powell,
Customer and Technical Solutions Director.

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Tariff Pause Triggers Surge in Ocean Freight Rates – But Legal Roadblocks Lie Ahead

Jun 11, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Container shipping lines are driving spot rates sharply higher, with the 2025 transpacific peak season likely to begin earlier than usual, fuelled by a surge in US imports from Asia.

Spot rates on key routes are rising faster than during the pandemic-era boom. Carriers implemented general rate increases (GRIs) on 1 June and plan further hikes for mid-June and 1 July, seizing the moment while demand is high.

According to the WCI, Shanghai–Los Angeles rates surged 57% week-on-week, while Shanghai–New York climbed 39%. Since mid-April, West Coast rates are up 173%, and East Coast rates have more than doubled. For comparison, rates rose just 20% over the same period in 2021. Asia–Europe lanes are also rallying, with the Shanghai–Rotterdam index up 32% and Shanghai–Genoa rising 38%, the highest weekly increases in many months.

But this momentum may be short-lived, as a wave of new capacity is entering the market. On Asia–West Coast routes, supply will grow by 13% in June and 16% in July. This additional capacity is expected to blunt the impact of further rate hikes, and limit the length of the current rally.

At the same time, the legal outlook for Trump ‘reciprocal’ tariffs remains highly uncertain. On 29 May, a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated the tariffs, just one day after the US Court of International Trade ruled that the former president had exceeded his authority and ordered an immediate block. The Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington paused that decision to consider the government’s appeal, with final briefs due by 9 June.

However, legal experts suggest that the original court ruling is on strong footing. Under the current framework, principally the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), presidential authority to impose broad-based tariffs is limited. The Court of International Trade ruled that Trump’s use of IEEPA to impose tariffs on non-emergency, peacetime imports likely overstepped constitutional bounds.

If the appeal fails, Trump’s tariffs will face two remaining paths: either a legislative push to expand presidential tariff authority through Congress, or a ruling from the Supreme Court. The latter remains a real possibility if the administration persists and seeks to test the constitutional limits of executive trade powers.

In the meantime, the legal limbo is prompting importers to accelerate orders while the tariffs remain suspended, adding further pressure to ocean freight markets. But with front-loading already well advanced, this year’s peak season is expected to be earlier and shorter than the usual August–October window. While carriers are determined to ride the wave of high rates, fundamentals suggest the next one or two GRIs may be the last before rates begin to level off.

With legal uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and ocean freight markets under intense pressure, early planning and expert guidance are more critical than ever.

Metro’s experienced sea freight and customs brokerage teams are here to support your transpacific and Asia–Europe supply chains, with in-market expertise and local operations in the US.

Whether you’re juggling critical shipments, reviewing tariff exposure, or seeking end-to-end compliance support, Metro has the insight and capability to keep your cargo moving.

EMAIL our managing director, Andrew Smith, today to stay ahead of disruption and secure your space at the best possible rates.

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