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Key finance factors shaping UK manufacturers and shippers in 2026

Jan 7, 2026 | ,

As the UK enters 2026, there are early signs that the export and domestic economic environments are turning a corner. And while UK consumer sentiment is likely to remain cautious in Q1, recent PMI data shows UK exports returning to growth after a year-long slump.

However, while macroeconomic pressure is easing, finance-led decisions will remain a defining influence on supply-chain resilience, cost control and competitiveness. Freight markets may be normalising currently, but with operational volatility still present, finance, procurement and logistics teams must stay closely aligned.

We highlight below critical finance factors that UK manufacturers and shippers should be actively managing in 2026.

Cost of capital, balance-sheet resilience and working capital

Even with easing inflation and expected base‑rate reductions during 2026, the effective cost of capital for UK manufacturers remains structurally higher than the pre‑2020 period. 

This has direct consequences for logistics strategy and supplier choices.

Stronger balance sheets give shippers the ability to:

  • Position inventory more flexibly, including dual sourcing or buffer stock
  • Commit upfront to long-term logistics capacity or warehousing
  • Absorb short-term cost shocks across freight, storage or supplier disruption

By contrast, highly leveraged businesses remain more exposed to:

  • Short-notice capacity premiums
  • Supplier or carrier failures within extended logistics networks

Finance leaders increasingly need to assess logistics resilience not just through service KPIs, but through working‑capital intensity, cash tied up in transit and supplier dependency risk. In 2026, balance‑sheet strength directly influences supply‑chain choices and negotiating power.

Interest-rate easing and working-capital efficiency

Expected interest rate reductions in the UK during 2026 will provide some relief to manufacturers and shippers—particularly those managing inventory‑heavy or globally distributed supply chains.

However, the financial benefit will be uneven. Companies that optimise working capital will see the greatest upside, including:

  • Lower financing costs on inventory and goods in transit
  • Reduced costs for trade-finance instruments such as letters of credit or supply-chain finance

Manufacturers with inefficient logistics flows — excess stock, long lead times, or limited demand visibility — may see only marginal benefit from lower rates.

For finance and supply-chain teams, 2026 should be treated as a year to:

  • Re-evaluate inventory and safety-stock strategies
  • Renegotiate trade-finance and funding arrangements
  • Align logistics lead times more closely with cash-flow objectives

Interest-rate easing should be used to structurally improve working-capital efficiency, not simply as short-term relief.

FX volatility and total landed cost

Foreign exchange remains a critical, and often under‑appreciated, risk for manufacturers and shippers.

In 2026, continued sterling volatility means FX can materially impact:

  • Freight and fuel surcharges
  • Contract manufacturing and supplier costs
  • Total landed cost and margin predictability

A common challenge for exporters is misalignment:

  • Logistics and freight costs fluctuate with FX
  • Customer pricing is often fixed in GBP
  • Budgeting and reporting lag real currency movements

Finance teams will need to improve collaboration with procurement and logistics functions. For manufacturers competing on tight margins, FX‑aware logistics and sourcing strategies will increasingly differentiate strong performers from those reliant on short‑term margin recovery actions

Government support and export finance

UK Export Finance continues to play a critical role in supporting exporters through guarantees, insurance and financing solutions that can unlock working capital and de-risk international trade.

The Industry and Exports (Financial Assistance) Bill aims to increase UK Export Finance’s overall budget limit from £84bn to £160bn, with no fixed limit on future increases. This expansion will significantly strengthens the UK’s ability to support exporters as global competition, geopolitical risk and supply-chain complexity persist.

For manufacturers and shippers, government-backed finance can:

  • Support overseas contract wins
  • Improve access to funding for growth
  • Reduce balance-sheet pressure during periods of volatility

Looking ahead

Save for some notable exceptions many forecasters are predicting 2026 to be a less volatile market than 2025 with the general direction of interest rates, inflation and logistics clearer than at this stage in 2025. There is however the need, as always, for business to adapt to the new market conditions in order to thrive in 2026.

Metro is well placed to support UK manufacturers and exporters as finance and logistics decisions increasingly intersect. If you would like to discuss how these factors may affect your supply chain in 2026, please EMAIL our CFO, Laurence Burford.

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Asia–Europe peak season meets Chinese New Year

Jan 7, 2026 | , , , , , , , ,

As the Asia–Europe trade moves deeper into peak season, Chinese New Year (CNY) is already reshaping pricing, capacity and execution risk. What was once a predictable seasonal slowdown has become a compressed, high-impact period where demand surges, capacity is tightly managed and disruption risks escalate quickly.

With carriers reporting strong bookings through December, into January and expectations that volumes could remain firm into February, the traditional pre-CNY rush is well underway. 

Although Chinese New Year officially begins on 17 February, with public holidays running from 15 to 23 February, its impact is felt weeks earlier as factories slow production and exporters pull cargo forward.

For Asia–Europe shippers, this creates a narrow and volatile planning window rather than a clearly defined seasonal pause.

Demand strength keeps rates elevated

Underlying demand on the Asia–Europe trade remains robust. Volumes reached nearly 22 million teu by the end of October, representing 8.6% year-on-year growth, giving carriers confidence to defend pricing as peak season converges with CNY planning.

This strength has translated into a fresh round of pricing actions at the start of the year. Peak season surcharges (PSS) and higher freight-all-kinds (FAK) levels are being used to reinforce rate floors as space tightens.

Market benchmarks reflect this momentum. Ahead of Christmas, Drewry’s World Container Index showed:

  • Shanghai–Genoa up 10%
  • Shanghai–Rotterdam up 8%, marking a third consecutive week of gains

Carrier initiatives followed quickly:

  • Maersk introduced a $1,500 per 40ft PSS on Asia–Mediterranean shipments from 5 January
  • CMA CGM applied a $250 per teu PSS on Asia–North Europe alongside new FAK rates from 1 January
  • MSC set new FAK levels of $3,700 per 40ft to North Europe and $5,500 per 40ft to the Mediterranean

Rates remain relatively steady heading into CNY, supported less by demand and disciplined capacity control.

Capacity front-loading raises execution risk

As factories prepare to slow production, carriers are once again turning to blanked sailings to protect utilisation. However, the way capacity is being managed this year marks a clear break from historical patterns.

Analysis from Sea-Intelligence shows that carriers have increasingly front-loaded capacity into late Q4 and early Q1, followed by plans for sharp withdrawals as the holiday approaches. This creates short bursts of intense volume flow, followed by sudden capacity gaps.

For shippers, this shift materially increases the risk of:

  • Rolled cargo
  • Missed cut-offs
  • Port and inland congestion during compressed loading windows

On Asia–Europe specifically:

  • Asia–North Europe has seen the largest absolute capacity expansion, with deployment projected to surge nearly 50% above baseline, reflecting aggressive inventory pull-forward into Europe
  • Asia–Mediterranean shows the greatest percentage volatility, with peak capacity more than 60% above baseline, highlighting heightened disruption risk even on secondary trades

Rather than smoothing demand, blank sailings are now amplifying disruption once volumes peak.

What happens after the holiday?

In the immediate run-up to CNY, pricing is likely to remain supported by strong demand, PSS and constrained capacity. The greater uncertainty lies in the post-holiday period.

Once factories reopen and deferred cargo returns to the market, rate volatility is likely to increase — particularly if demand rebounds faster than carriers reinstate withdrawn sailings. This could result in sudden space shortages, uneven service recovery and renewed congestion on Asia–Europe lanes.

For shippers, the real risk is not confined to the holiday itself, but to the broader six-to-eight-week window around CNY, when schedules, capacity and pricing are most fluid.

Planning priorities for Asia–Europe shippers

As peak season and CNY converge, successful shippers are focusing on:

  • Securing space early rather than chasing spot availability
  • Building contingency routing and sailing options
  • Allowing extra buffer in cut-offs and inland planning
  • Treating CNY as an extended risk period, not a single event

If you are planning ocean freight on the Asia–Europe trade through Chinese New Year and into 2026, Metro’s teams can help you secure space, manage blank-sailing risk and adapt your shipping strategy — so you stay ahead of disruption rather than reacting to it.

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Smart 2026 supply chains are being engineered for pressure

Jan 7, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Supply chains are no longer judged on efficiency alone, in 2026 they will be expected to anticipate disruption and adapt at speed to actively support growth. The experience of the past year confirmed that stability is no longer a realistic planning assumption, but performance under pressure is.

Rather than a single crisis, 2025 delivered constant friction. Congestion resurfaced across ports and inland networks, capacity existed but was selectively deployed, and geopolitical and regulatory shifts altered trade flows long before any formal policy changes took effect. 

The result was a decisive shift in mindset: supply chains must be designed to operate in volatility, not merely recover from it.

That shift accelerates in 2026, as technology, resilience and sustainability converge to redefine how supply chains are planned, financed and executed.

Resilience becomes a competitive advantage

If 2025 proved anything, it was that capacity on paper does not guarantee performance in practice. Across ocean, air and road freight, service reliability was dictated by execution: blank sailings, schedule volatility and inland bottlenecks determined what actually moved.

In response, supply chain design is moving beyond simple continuity planning toward resilience, where networks are designed to adapt and improve under stress.

Common characteristics include:

  • Multi-route and multimodal playbooks rather than single-lane optimisation
  • Near-shoring and regionalisation to shorten lead times and reduce exposure
  • Centralised planning paired with regional execution for faster response

These approaches reflect a broader shift away from cost-minimisation toward risk-adjusted performance.

Warehousing becomes a strategic control point

Warehousing emerged as one of the most critical differentiators in 2025 — a trend that intensifies in 2026. With transit times less predictable and congestion harder to avoid, inventory positioning and fulfilment speed have become central to supply-chain resilience.

High-performing shippers increasingly treat warehousing as an active control layer, not passive storage. Key developments include:

  • Greater use of strategically located facilities to buffer disruption
  • Tighter integration between warehousing, transport and customs planning
  • Investment in automation and robotics that flex with demand and seasonality

This is particularly important as omnichannel and e-commerce pressures continue to grow, demanding seamless support for direct-to-consumer, BOPIS and rapid fulfilment models alongside traditional B2B flows.

From reactive networks to intelligent systems

One of the most significant changes heading into 2026 is the role of technology within supply chains. What began as analytical support is now moving into operational control.

AI-enabled tools are increasingly embedded across planning, procurement, inventory management and risk assessment, enabling supply chains to:

  • Anticipate disruption through predictive insights
  • Optimise routing, inventory and capacity decisions in near real time
  • Coordinate responses across multiple functions and geographies

As these systems become more connected, cybersecurity and data governance also rise sharply in importance. Protecting sensitive operational, commercial and customs data is now a core supply-chain requirement, not an IT afterthought.

Data quality, skills and execution define winners

Technology alone is not enough. The past year also highlighted a widening gap between organisations that could convert insight into action and those constrained by fragmented systems and poor data quality.

In 2026, competitive advantage depends on:

  • Clean, trusted and consistent data across logistics, customs and finance
  • Integrated platforms rather than disconnected tools
  • Teams with the skills to manage AI-driven, data-rich operations

Workforce transformation is therefore as important as digital investment. Roles are evolving toward data analytics, systems oversight and exception management, requiring targeted up-skilling to unlock value from new technologies.

Sustainability and compliance move into the operating core

Environmental and regulatory pressures are no longer peripheral considerations. Carbon pricing, emissions transparency, stricter customs enforcement and evolving trade rules are now shaping routing, mode selection and inventory strategy.

For most shippers, progress in 2026 will come less from premium “green” options and more from practical levers:

  • Smarter planning and consolidation
  • Modal optimisation and regionalisation
  • Stronger traceability and data governance

Sustainability and compliance have become operational constraints — inseparable from cost, resilience and service performance.

Designing supply chains that perform under pressure

Taken together, the direction of travel for 2026 is clear. Supply chains are being rebuilt as intelligent, integrated systems — shifting from reactive cost centres to strategic growth engines.

The most resilient networks are those that:

  • Integrate finance, procurement, logistics and technology decisions
  • Combine centralised control with regional agility
  • Invest equally in data, platforms, people and process

The objective is not to eliminate disruption, but to design networks that continue to perform when conditions are uncertain.

At Metro, this same mindset underpins how supply chains are assessed and supported. Stress-testing assumptions, strengthening visibility and applying execution-focused logistics, warehousing and transport strategies. In 2026, the differentiator will not be avoiding disruption, but owning a supply chain designed to operate through it.

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Rising Freight Crime Sparks Industry, Government and Police Action

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Road haulage operators are on high alert as criminal activity peaks during the dark winter months, with investigations revealing how organised gangs are posing as legitimate operators, buying haulage companies, and infiltrating supply chains to steal trailer loads.

The scale of the threat is escalating, with freight-theft losses rising from £68m in 2023 to £111m in 2024 and industry experts warn the true cost could be up to seven times higher once vehicle damage, increased insurance, business disruption and wider supply chain impact are factored in.

A new national “flagging system” is now being trialled to better distinguish freight crime from general vehicle theft, enabling police and government to measure the true scale of the problem and coordinate a national response.

But the challenge remains vast, with criminals using increasingly sophisticated methods to identify high-value loads, monitor haulage movements, and exploit vulnerable roadside parking areas.

Curtain-slashing, door breaches, cloned paperwork and even purchasing haulage firms are increasingly common tactics. Popular stolen products — electronics, alcohol, tobacco, clothing and FMCG — are quickly dispersed across underground retail networks, fuelling other forms of organised crime.

Industry and Law Enforcement Mobilise

The Road Haulage Association (RHA), National Vehicle Crime Intelligence Service (NaVCIS), and transport bodies stress the urgent need for improved secure parking, stronger site accreditation, and better reporting structures.

NaVCIS, part-funded by the logistics industry, is already supporting police forces nationwide through Operation Opal, targeting serious organised acquisitive crime.

However, police leaders acknowledge resources have been “stretched” and further funding is critical to tackling the organised element of freight theft at scale.

Industry associations are also stepping up coordination. The Transported Asset Protection Association (TAPA) — which logged more than 5,800 cargo crime incidents in the UK in two years — has joined forces with The British International Freight Association (BIFA) to improve intelligence-sharing, strengthen supply chain security and support hauliers. Their collaboration aligns with the proposed Freight Crime Bill, due for its second reading in Parliament this month, following research by the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Freight and Logistics estimating freight-related crime cost the UK economy £700m in 2023.

Secure parking remains a priority, with the Park Mark Freight scheme establishing strict standards for perimeter security, CCTV, lighting and on-site patrols. Yet many motorway service areas and truck stops still fall short of best practice, leaving drivers and loads exposed.

Metro’s Proactive Steps to Reduce Cargo Theft

Metro takes a layered approach to reducing theft risk, combining trained personnel, rigorous procedures, and secure equipment. Our national fleet operates with:

  • Two or three-man crews for visibility and safety
  • Box trailers, providing enhanced protection compared with curtainsiders
  • Secure, well-lit, accredited parking facilities
  • Advanced tracking and monitoring for high-value loads

In addition, all Metro drivers follow strict security protocols, including:

  • Minimising unattended vehicle time
  • Avoiding discussions about load or route details
  • Conducting load and trailer checks after every stop
  • Reporting any irregularity in route, delivery address or customer instructions
  • Never picking up hitchhikers
  • Maintaining heightened awareness in known hotspot areas

These measures significantly reduce exposure. However, even the best operational precautions cannot eliminate risk entirely, especially when organised crime groups target all types of cargo, not just high-value shipments.

Why Insurance Matters More Than Ever

One of the harsh realities of rising freight crime is that standard carrier liability rarely covers the true value of goods. Carrier limits are calculated by weight, not cargo value, meaning claims for electronics, fashion, luxury goods and pharmaceuticals often fall short of replacement cost.

Metro strongly recommends securing All Risk marine insurance, which provides comprehensive cover against loss, theft, and damage throughout the entire transit and storage journey. We partner with leading insurance providers to offer:

  • Per-shipment or annual policies
  • Flexible, competitively priced cover
  • Protection aligned to specific cargo profiles
  • Specialist support for high-value and sensitive goods

With freight crime rising sharply — and becoming more sophisticated — comprehensive insurance is no longer optional. It is a critical layer of risk protection for every supply chain.

For more information on All Risk marine insurance and how to protect your cargo, EMAIL Laurence Burford, CFO at our Birmingham HQ.

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