Rotterdam sunset

Port congestion spreads as delays ripple through global supply chains

Jun 9, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Port congestion in North Europe and East Asia is increasingly a two-ended problem: weather and capacity issues at origin delay departures, and when those same vessels finally reach port in Europe, they miss their planned berths and are forced to wait again, magnifying disruption throughout supply chains.

Congestion across key container gateways in Asia and Northern Europe is once again creating significant disruption with delays at Shanghai, Ningbo, Rotterdam and Antwerp increasingly feeding into one another and extending transit uncertainty across the entire east-west trade.

While individual delays at a single port are not unusual during peak season, the current challenge is the growing “cascade effect” developing across vessel schedules, inland transport networks and terminal operations.

In simple terms, disruption at one end of the trade lane is now directly increasing congestion at the other.

Weather disruption and vessel bunching hit China exports

Shanghai and Ningbo are both experiencing elevated congestion levels as heavy seasonal demand combines with poor weather, vessel bunching and continued schedule disruption linked to longer Cape routings.

Dense fog and adverse weather conditions around China’s east coast have already caused berth delays ranging from two to seven days at some Shanghai terminals, while Ningbo is also experiencing extended waiting times and increasing yard density pressure.

The knock-on effect quickly spreads through carrier schedules.

When vessels are delayed departing China, they frequently miss planned arrival windows into Northern Europe. Once that happens, carriers can lose their allocated berth slots, forcing vessels to wait offshore for new availability.

That creates a compounding cycle where both origin and destination ports become congested simultaneously.

Container equipment shortages are also worsening across major Asian export hubs as carriers struggle to reposition empty containers back into loading ports quickly enough to meet demand.

Rotterdam and Antwerp under mounting pressure

Northern Europe’s largest container hubs are now facing growing operational strain as delayed vessel arrivals collide with already congested inland transport networks.

Rotterdam and Antwerp are both reporting severe inland barge disruption, with waiting times regularly stretching towards four days. Yard utilisation remains extremely high across several terminals, while reduced crane availability, feeder delays and weather-related stoppages continue limiting operational fluidity.

Strong winds across Northern Europe have added further intermittent disruption, particularly at Antwerp, where terminals are struggling with vessel bunching and rising container dwell times.

The challenge extends far beyond the quayside.

As terminals prioritise delayed deep-sea vessels, inland barges often face secondary status within the operational flow, creating additional delays for hinterland cargo movement. In some cases, containers are remaining on terminals significantly longer than operationally ideal, increasing storage pressure and reducing yard efficiency.

Road and rail networks are also coming under increasing pressure as shippers divert cargo away from delayed barge services to avoid demurrage, detention and missed supply chain deadlines.

Inland transport disruption adds to the congestion cycle

The wider Northern European inland network is also becoming increasingly fragile.

Rail disruption across Germany, including infrastructure works, route closures and operational bottlenecks around Hamburg, is further complicating cargo flows into and out of the ports. Delayed trains, missed vessel connections and network overload are creating additional uncertainty for importers trying to maintain reliable inventory flows during an already volatile peak season environment.

This means delays are no longer isolated to one transport mode.

A weather delay in China can now create missed vessel berthing windows in Europe, which then impacts inland barges, rail schedules, feeder services and final cargo delivery timelines across multiple countries.

What this means for shippers

The current market reinforces how interconnected global container networks have become.

Longer transit times around the Cape of Good Hope have already reduced schedule reliability, while peak season demand and equipment shortages are tightening operational flexibility across both Asia and Europe.

For shippers, this creates growing importance around earlier booking windows, flexible inland transport planning and close coordination across origin, ocean and destination operations.

Importers moving time-sensitive cargo may increasingly need contingency planning around rail, road and barge options as congestion conditions continue evolving across Northern Europe during the summer peak period.

Metro combines global ocean freight expertise, proactive shipment management and integrated inland transport coordination to help customers minimise disruption and maintain cargo flow during volatile market conditions.

To discuss your supply chain planning, routing options or congestion mitigation strategies, EMAIL Managing Director Andrew Smith.

container lorry queue

Capacity tightens and rates surge as peak season pressure builds

Jun 1, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Asia–Europe and transpacific market conditions have shifted sharply in recent weeks, as strong demand tightens available space and enables carriers to push through higher spot rates and surcharges, even on shipments moving under long-term contracts.

Recent index data shows steady week-on-week gains, but forward indicators suggest a much steeper rise ahead. Pricing for early June shipments is already high and market signals indicate that rates could climb as high as $6,000–$7,000 per 40ft in the coming weeks, particularly as space tightens in the second half of June.

This demand spike is being driven by large-volume shippers accelerating shipments ahead of new bunker adjustment factors (BAFs) due to take effect from 1 July. These revised fuel charges are expected to increase significantly, prompting a surge in June volumes that is now placing further strain on capacity.

At the same time, carriers are increasing peak season surcharges (PSS) and signalling ongoing reviews. Initial increases are already being implemented in early June, with further upward revisions likely through the summer. Importantly, these surcharges are not being capped, creating continued upward pressure.

On the transpacific, the situation is following a similar trajectory. Capacity reductions, most notably the withdrawal of a key Asia–US East Coast service, have tightened supply, while carriers are taking a more aggressive stance on rate increases. Although recent index movements have been moderate, multiple general rate increases (GRIs) have been announced for June, pointing to a much firmer market ahead.

Contract conditions are also shifting. Previously available rate offers are being withdrawn or replaced with higher-priced agreements, and in some cases, revised terms are becoming commercially unviable. Across both major east–west trades, current expectations are that elevated rate levels and constrained space will persist through June and July, with the potential to extend into August.

For shippers, this creates a highly compressed and competitive freight environment. Securing space is becoming increasingly dependent on rate acceptance, and delays in booking or pricing decisions are likely to result in higher costs or missed sailings.

Metro’s Advice

If you have upcoming shipments, early planning and rapid booking decisions are critical.

  • Expect continued upward pressure on both spot and contract rates through June and into July
  • Allow for additional surcharges, particularly PSS and revised fuel costs
  • Plan for reduced flexibility, with limited space availability on key sailings
  • Anticipate further volatility as carriers adjust pricing in line with demand

Metro’s teams are actively monitoring capacity, pricing movements, and carrier strategies to secure the best possible options for our customers.

Contact your Metro account manager today to review your shipping forecast, secure space, and minimise cost exposure in an increasingly constrained market.

This story was first reported in The Loadstar and can be viewed HERE

Maersk at FXT 1440x1080 1

Hormuz Is Pulling the Ocean Peak Forward

May 28, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Container shipping normally follows a traditional demand curve, with rates climbing into Chinese New Year, softening through spring, and then building towards a Q3 peak. But not this year.

The crisis around the Strait of Hormuz is introducing an extra layer of cost and volatility, which means that instead of a gentle spring lull, the market is moving into peak‑like conditions earlier, and from a higher baseline.

Analysis of more than a decade of data shows how sharply 2026 has diverged from normal patterns on key trade lanes.

Shanghai–Los Angeles rates typically peak three weeks before Chinese New Year as shippers rush orders out, then fall into a sustained post‑holiday slump. This year, the usual pre‑CNY dip was deeper than normal and was followed by an unusually sharp post‑holiday drop. Instead of then drifting sideways, spot rates turned and climbed steeply, with east and west coast transpacific spot rates well above where they would usually sit at this point in the cycle.

On Asia–North Europe, the deviation from normal seasonality emerged slightly earlier, with a two‑week offset, and post‑CNY declines less severe than on the transpacific. The premium over “normal” seasonal levels initially surged, then faded, only to re‑emerge as rates climbed again and remain elevated. The Mediterranean trade has swung even more sharply, with early premiums peaking, dropping back to zero and then returning close to the highest levels.

Analysts are cautious about attributing every dollar of these increases to Hormuz, acknowledging that localised supply‑and‑demand factors also play a role. But the break from normal seasonality coincides closely with the crisis, and there is now a clear correlation between Gulf risk and an extra layer of cost in spot pricing.

Early peak, fuel pressure and front‑loading

Since carriers began diverting away from the Red Sea, importers have tended to order earlier to make sure boxes arrive before China’s Golden Week at the start of October. With longer transit times, containers loaded after mid‑October may not reach destination in time for the main holiday season, so some of the traditional late‑Q3 peak has already been brought forward into late Q2 and early Q3 in recent years.

In 2024, Asia–Europe rates started climbing in early May and peaked by mid‑July. In 2025, after seeing that the previous year’s May start was probably earlier than necessary, prices picked up in early June and again peaked in mid‑July. This year, some carriers are already reporting an uptick in demand on Asia–North Europe and Asia–Med, with daily prices already reacting to mid‑May general rate increase attempts and further rate hikes announced for June.

On top of that, bunker costs jumped after the latest Middle East escalation at the end of February. Emergency fuel surcharges quickly appeared on spot shipments, but contract cargo is tied to quarterly bunker adjustment factors. That has created a powerful timing incentive, with exceptionally strong shipper demand through late May and into June from larger cargo owners looking to move as much as possible before 1 July, when the next quarterly BAF reset will automatically push up contract freight rates.

Capacity constraints and blankings

Higher oil prices and longer routes via the Cape or alternative legs around the region have increased bunker and operating costs and tied up a large slice of global container capacity in longer voyage cycles.

At the same time, the supply side is tight. Few new ships are being delivered directly into the main Asia–Europe and transpacific loops in the near term, keeping the market “short of ships” and charter rates firm. Alliance partners are also using blanked sailings more actively. Instead of restricting blankings to Chinese New Year and Golden Week, carriers are using blankings as a flexible tool to match capacity to demand and support higher rate levels.

New alliance structures and more tactical service adjustments allow carriers to shift capacity more quickly between trades. For shippers, that can translate into sudden changes in available space and short‑notice rate moves, even outside the traditional peak window.

What this means for the 2026 ocean peak

Taken together, these factors are pulling peak‑season conditions forward and widening the window of risk:

  • Rates on key east–west trades are already running several hundred dollars per 40ft above where they would normally be for this stage in the year, even before the usual late‑Q3 build‑up.
  • Bookings and volumes on Asia–Europe trades are strengthening earlier, as shippers bring orders forward to secure space, get ahead of bunker‑linked increases on 1 July and hedge against further Gulf‑related shocks.
  • With limited new capacity entering the market, more dynamic blanking strategies and ongoing uncertainty around Hormuz and the wider Middle East, the system has less slack to absorb sudden volume surges later in the year.

For UK importers, the practical message is that the “traditional” Q3 ocean peak is being replaced by a longer, more uncertain high‑risk period, starting in late spring and running through to the autumn. 

Some of the early‑season rate increases may not fully stick, but geopolitical risk and fuel cost pressure are now baked into the market rather than being a passing anomaly. 

Through proactive capacity planning and contingency-focused supply chain support, Metro helps customers respond effectively to disruption, changing demand patterns and peak season uncertainty. EMAIL Managing Director, Andrew Smith, to learn more.

ships at anchor

Middle East Conflict Is Rewriting the Airfreight Peak

May 28, 2026 | , , , , , ,

Airfreight has always played a dual role in supply chains, providing a reliable core mode for some flows and a pressure‑relief valve when ocean networks clog up. 

The current Middle East crisis has upended that safety‑valve function; because instead of a short, sharp bottleneck, the market has shifted into a higher‑cost, more volatile place, that is already reshaping the 2026 peak season.

The initial fear was that conflict around the Gulf would trigger a sudden collapse in air capacity and an uncontrollable spike in jet fuel costs. That fearful initial phase has now passed, but pricing has not returned to pre‑crisis norms. Freight indices show global air rates holding well above early‑2026 levels, with some Asia–Europe spot rates doubling by April and still sitting nearly 75% above pre-war levels.

Fuel surcharges are no longer climbing week by week, but they remain dramatically higher than at the start of the year. The air cargo market is not spiralling upward, but it has clearly found a new, elevated pricing floor.

Capacity returns, but on new terms

Freighter lift grew around 3% month‑on‑month in April, reversing earlier declines, although week‑on‑week growth has slowed as airlines add capacity cautiously. Gulf carriers have been rebuilding their schedules, with strong month‑on‑month growth on Asia–Middle East and Europe–Middle East lanes, and major integrators have restored intercontinental flights into Bahrain, Dubai and other Gulf hubs from Europe and Asia.

Regional airspace is open again, albeit with corridors, pre‑approvals and routing constraints. Network operators have re‑established connections that link Europe, Asia and Africa through the Middle East, and are gradually extending services deeper into the region. Backup hubs in places such as Riyadh and Muscat remain in use while the security picture stabilises, but some carriers have also found alternative “mid‑points” in India and South‑East Asia to recover Asia–Europe capacity.

Other operators remain more cautious. Some European freighter airlines are still avoiding most Middle East stops, citing airspace and security concerns, and are waiting on further guidance from aviation security authorities before fully reopening networks. Major Asian carriers have delayed the resumption of certain passenger and freighter services into Riyadh and Dubai, even as they add freighter capacity into Bangkok, Vietnam and other South‑East Asian gateways.

Recent rate data shows some easing out of major Asian hubs and on Europe–US and Europe–Gulf routes, but pricing remains historically high. Outbound Heathrow rates, for example, are still more than 40% above last year. Refineries in Europe, the US and West Africa have shifted output towards aviation fuel, airlines have rerouted networks and trimmed weaker services, and capacity is being deployed with unusual discipline. Together, these factors are preventing a rapid collapse in pricing.

What this means for the “traditional” air peak

In a normal year, shippers would expect a relatively quiet summer followed by a steady build‑up into the late‑Q3/Q4 peak. Middle East disruption has scrambled that pattern in three important ways:

  • The market has already experienced “mini peaks” in Q2, as conflict‑related diversions and fuel shocks pushed rates to levels normally associated with peak season.
  • With airspace constraints, elevated fuel costs and tight capacity discipline, the system has less slack than usual. The ability to “pivot to air” from ocean at short notice is weaker.
  • Geopolitical risk now appears to be permanently repriced into airfreight. Even if the Gulf situation stabilises, fuel surcharges and base rates are likely to remain volatile, and the industry is planning around that assumption with more frequent surcharge adjustments.

For UK shippers, the implication is that 2026’s airfreight peak is less about one clear season and more about a longer period of heightened risk, with short, unpredictable demand spikes layered onto an already expensive base. Treating the whole second half of the year as potentially “peak‑like”, budgeting for higher air costs, and pre‑booking critical flows on key lanes will be essential to avoid being caught out.

Metro works closely with airlines and partners to secure capacity, identify alternative routings and maintain reliability in a disrupted market. If your supply chain depends on airfreight, EMAIL our Managing Director, Andrew Smith, to protect space, manage cost exposure and keep your cargo moving.

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