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Air freight surges from Asia to Europe while trans-Pacific faces regulatory hurdles

As peak season ramps up, air cargo from Asia to Europe is experiencing strong growth, largely driven by rising demand for eCommerce, while new scrutiny on duty exemptions has led to a significant drop in air cargo volumes from Asia to the United States.

In October, tonnage from Hong Kong to Europe rose sharply, with volumes up 25% compared to last year, as Singles Day, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday fuelled eCommerce demand, setting the stage for a robust fourth quarter.

Rates from Asia to Europe have climbed alongside demand, with average spot prices on the Hong Kong-to-Europe route reaching levels 13% higher than in 2023 and with sustained growth over the past six weeks, there is a strong early indication of a significant peak season.

Rates from Shanghai to Northern Europe hit their highest point this year, up by nearly 19% from the same period last year. This sustained demand for air freight, coupled with elevated rates, is a clear signal of a strong seasonal peak for Europe-bound cargo.

US market impacted by regulatory shifts
Since July, the US has tightened customs checks on imports from China, particularly on goods qualifying under the “de minimis” exemption, which allows low-value shipments to enter duty-free, resulting in a significant drop in air cargo volumes.

While the $800 threshold allowing duty-free entry hasn’t yet been lowered, the mere prospect has affected air cargo flows and should the threshold decrease, there could be a further reduction in air freight volumes from China.

Outlook and considerations
With robust air freight demand on the Asia-Europe corridor showing no signs of slowing, shippers are likely to encounter continued pressure on both rates and capacity. Meanwhile, the trans-Pacific market may experience shifts if regulatory changes reshape the landscape for duty-free imports.

As potential regulatory adjustments and compliance measures loom—particularly with the upcoming US presidential elections—proactive preparation can help mitigate impacts on air cargo operations. In a peak season marked by both growth and uncertainty, staying ahead of these changes will be essential for maintaining smooth, cost-effective logistics.

Our block space agreements (BSA) and capacity purchase agreements (CPA) protect space and capacity on the busiest routes, so share your shipping forecasts and we will fly your cargo at the best rates.

Regardless of your cargo type, size and requirements, we have extremely competitive rate and service combinations, to meet every deadline and budget.

EMAIL Elliot Carlile, Operations Director, for insights, prices and advice on our airfreight, charter and sea/air solutions. 

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Strengthening Global Network to Address Supply Chain Challenges

Metro’s strategic partner network is central to delivering market-leading logistics services, especially as global supply chains face ongoing challenges. With the appointment of Peter Orange as head of global network development, Metro is deepening its commitment to building robust partnerships worldwide, enhancing collaboration, and strengthening its network’s resilience to meet customer needs.

Highlighting the significance of Metro’s partner network, managing director Grant Liddell and chief commercial officer Andy Smith recently completed a ten-day trip across Asia. During the visit, they met with key partners, carriers, and customers to strengthen relationships and gain valuable insights into regional market dynamics.

This focus on building connections comes at a time when supply chains are under persistent pressure, making agile, strategic partnerships essential to delivering reliable service.

Peter Orange’s new role: Deepening global partnerships
With over three decades of experience spanning airlines and logistics firms across diverse regions—including Australia, Singapore, UAE, and the UK—Peter Orange brings a global perspective to his role as head of global network development. His mandate is clear: to enhance Metro’s engagement with existing partners and explore potential new alliances, particularly those that bring specialised expertise in verticals like automotive and high-tech.

Peter’s appointment reflects Metro’s commitment to fostering like-minded partnerships that prioritise value, service reliability, compliance, and transparent communication. As part of this role, Peter is reviewing existing partner relationships, assessing shared business strategies, and aligning efforts across transport modes—whether air, ocean, or combinations—to ensure Metro’s global partnerships are primed to adapt to dynamic market demands. He is also leading a continuous evaluation process with core partners, holding regular reviews to assess market opportunities and align on growth objectives.

Building on this foundation, Metro plans to expand Peter’s team with route development managers who will focus on key regions, including Asia Pacific and EMEA, alongside the current emphasis on North America. This team will work closely with Metro’s partners to drive sales, share market intelligence, and set clear growth targets, reinforcing Metro’s strategy of data-informed and relationship-driven expansion.

Insights from Metro’s Asia trip
In September, Grant Liddell and Andy Smith travelled to Singapore, Shanghai, and Hong Kong to meet with Metro’s Asian partners, customers, and major carriers. The trip provided valuable insights into the region’s logistics landscape, particularly with regard to the effects of eCommerce growth on airfreight demand and the impact of ocean capacity adjustments driven by regional geopolitical issues.

A notable takeaway from their discussions was the continued strength of eCommerce in driving airfreight demand, particularly on routes from Asia to Europe and North America. This trend is keeping rates elevated and creating heightened capacity needs. In ocean freight, major trade routes are seeing increased rates due to strong demand and capacity constraints, with factors like the Red Sea diversions further tightening supply. The expectation is that these pressures will persist into Q4, reinforcing the need for strong partnerships and agile strategies.

Metro’s commitment to building a resilient partner network ensures that customers benefit from agile, robust global supply chains, capable of adapting to shifts in demand and overcoming potential disruptions.

With Peter Orange leading this effort, alongside Metro’s strengthened ties in Asia, we’re dedicated to adding value and positioning our customers for success in today’s dynamic logistics landscape.

To explore how Metro’s partnerships can support your business needs, please EMAIL Peter Orange for more information.

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Air freight surges as supply chains feel the pressure

The air freight sector, which is already experiencing a demand spike in many regions, is anticipating another surge as the strikes at US East and Gulf Coast ports are likely to fuel even more demand on the time-sensitive mode.

With more than half of US containerised volumes moving through East and Gulf Coast ports the strikes will quickly have a profound impact on trade, especially with the peak holiday season approaching. The industrial action is expected to cause significant delays and backlogs, with each day of the strike potentially adding 5–10 days of cargo build-up.

As a result, many businesses will be reassessing their logistics strategies and opting for air freight to avoid the uncertainty of ocean shipping. This shift will put additional pressure on an already strained air freight market, with capacity tightening and rates rising.

Air cargo rates on routes from Asia to the US and Europe have already risen, as robust demand for eCommerce and traditional cargo has lifted load factors to almost 90% in September, with demand expected to strengthen further ahead of Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

As air freight capacity is being redirected by carriers from less profitable trade lanes, such as South America and India, to the more lucrative trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe routes, businesses on these secondary routes are finding it increasingly difficult to secure space for their shipments.

This trend is mirrored across other key Asian markets, with Japan, Bangladesh, and Southeast Asia also seeing sharp increases in air freight prices, driven by typhoon-related disruptions and ongoing strong demand.

Rates from Bangladesh to Europe and the US have risen dramatically, with prices to the US more than three times higher than the same period last year. The political unrest and logistics disruptions in Bangladesh, a key textile export nation, have further limited capacity and pushed up rates.

Q4 peak season set to intensify pressure
Massive eCommerce volumes from Asia are already tying up to 150 freighters per day and with volumes forecast to surge, conventional shippers, including those in retail and automotive, may struggle to secure the space they need for their shipments.

Our block space agreements (BSA) and capacity purchase agreements (CPA)  protect space and capacity on the busiest routes, so share your shipping forecasts and we will fly your cargo at the best rates.

Regardless of your cargo type, size and requirements, we have extremely competitive rate and service combinations, to meet every deadline and budget.

EMAIL Elliot Carlile, Operations Director, for insights, prices and advice on our airfreight, charter and sea/air solutions. 

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Supply chains brace for more disruption as storm season intensifies

From wildfires and floods to scorching heatwaves, the consequences of climate change are becoming more pronounced, and as we enter the peak shipping season, businesses are scrambling to prepare for what is predicted to be one of the most disruptive storm seasons in recent memory.

So far in 2024 supply chain disruptions caused by extreme weather are estimated to have cost companies billions of pounds, and the storm season is far from over. Hurricanes, wildfires, and floods have already stretched global supply lines thin, and the arrival of storms like Typhoon Bebinca, which threatened Shanghai this week, adds a fresh layer of concern.

Increased visibility allows managers to pinpoint disruptions and adjust supply chains accordingly, and the key to weathering these events lies in preparation. Shippers are diversifying their carrier bases and building inventory buffers to keep goods moving in the face of challenges. Strategic planning, such as maintaining safety stock for high-demand items, has become essential in managing supply chain risks.

The heightened storm season comes as companies are already reeling from the effects of wildfires in California and Australia, as well as floods that have caused widespread damage to transportation networks in Asia.

While technology and data-driven insights have made supply chains more resilient, this year’s relentless barrage of natural disasters is proving particularly difficult to navigate. While technology can help predict and respond to the impact of storms, it is only effective when paired with clear communication and regular updates on shipments.

The threat posed by Typhoon Bebinca is yet another reminder of the supply chain vulnerabilities that remain, with Shanghai closing ports, cancelling, and halting transportation links to ensure safety. With more storms likely in the coming months, companies must remain agile and vigilant, ready to adapt to further disruptions.

The need for resilience and adaptability is more pressing than ever, as companies navigate the challenges ahead. This season may prove to be one of the toughest in recent memory, but for those prepared, there are still opportunities to maintain operational continuity in the face of adversity.

Extreme weather events consistently highlight the vulnerability of supply chains and the importance of robust contingency plans and marine insurance to protect against risk.

We have been maintaining supply chain resilience in the face of unforeseen challenges for decades. To learn how we can develop and support your supply chain resilience EMAIL our Chief Commercial Officer, Andy Smith.