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Typhoon Bavi exposes fragility in global supply chains

Typhoon Bavi, an exceptionally powerful and large tropical cyclone that tore through the Western Pacific last week may have passed, but its impact on global supply chains will linger for at least another week. 

After forcing the temporary closure of several of China's most important container gateways, the storm has left shipping lines, ports and shippers facing weeks of disruption as vessel schedules recover and freight networks work through mounting backlogs.

The Category 5-equivalent super typhoon swept across eastern China in mid-July, bringing winds exceeding 140 km/h and affecting an area almost 1,000 kilometres wide. As the storm approached, ports suspended operations, vessels were ordered to leave exposed berths and inland feeder terminals closed as a precaution. Although terminals have now reopened, the disruption created during just a few days of closures is continuing to ripple through global logistics networks.

For importers and exporters, the lesson is becoming increasingly clear. Modern supply chains are no longer disrupted only by geopolitical events or capacity shortages. Severe weather is now capable of creating global consequences that last long after the skies have cleared.

China's busiest ports face weeks of recovery

Shanghai and Ningbo, the world's first and third busiest container ports respectively, bore the brunt of the disruption. Together they handle tens of millions of containers every year and sit at the heart of manufacturing supply chains serving Europe, North America and the rest of Asia.

As Typhoon Bavi approached, container terminals suspended operations, vessels left deep-water berths and truck movements were halted. Along the Yangtze River, feeder ports linking inland manufacturing centres with Shanghai also closed, temporarily severing one of China's most important export corridors.

Operations resumed once the storm had passed, but reopening terminals is only the first stage of recovery. Every delayed vessel must still be berthed, unloaded and reloaded before shipping schedules can begin returning to normal.

Industry analysts estimate that almost two million TEU of container capacity was delayed by the disruption, with North Asia accounting for more than half of all global port congestion during the immediate aftermath. Current forecasts suggest ports may require at least two weeks to work through the accumulated backlog.

Vessel queues continue to grow

The operational impact became visible almost immediately after ports reopened.

The queue of vessels waiting outside Shanghai more than doubled within a week, rising from fewer than 60 ships before the closures to well over 120. Ningbo experienced a similar pattern, with waiting vessels increasing by almost 70%, while congestion also spread north to Qingdao following precautionary closures there.

Waiting times have lengthened accordingly. Some vessels are now experiencing delays of several days before securing a berth, while carriers operating certain services face considerably longer waits as terminals prioritise arrivals and reorganise schedules.

The disruption extends well beyond the ports themselves. Warehousing, customs processing, container yards and trucking operations all require time to absorb the surge in cargo released once terminals reopen. As containers accumulate, equipment availability tightens, truck demand rises and inland transport networks come under increasing pressure.

Delays are spreading across global shipping networks

The consequences are now extending far beyond eastern China. Shipping lines have omitted calls at Shanghai and Ningbo on several international services, instead diverting cargo through alternative hubs including Hong Kong, Singapore and Busan before arranging onward transhipment. Other vessels have been forced to skip scheduled ports entirely or adjust voyage rotations to recover lost time.

These changes inevitably create further disruption downstream. Delayed vessels arrive at subsequent ports outside their planned windows, leading to berth congestion elsewhere, missed feeder connections and revised cut-off times for exporters. Cargo originally booked on one sailing may be rolled to another, while importers face growing uncertainty over arrival dates.

The cumulative effect is that disruption continues travelling through global shipping networks long after the original weather event has ended.

Extreme weather is becoming a strategic supply chain risk

Typhoon Bavi is the latest reminder that climate-related disruption is becoming an increasingly significant operational challenge for global trade.

Maritime transport carries more than 80% of world merchandise trade, making the resilience of major ports critical to international supply chains. Yet severe weather events are becoming both more frequent and more disruptive, with tropical cyclones already responsible for months of cumulative port disruption each year.

For shippers, this changes the nature of supply chain risk. Weather-related disruption can no longer be viewed simply as a short-term operational inconvenience. Increasingly, it affects inventory planning, manufacturing schedules, customer service and working capital across international supply chains.

Building resilience now requires more than securing freight capacity. Businesses also need timely visibility into where products are, how disruption is developing and which shipments require immediate intervention.

Visibility is becoming a competitive advantage

When disruption occurs, the biggest challenge is often not the delay itself but understanding exactly how individual shipments are affected.

Metro's MVT platform provides end-to-end shipment visibility down to SKU level, allowing customers to monitor cargo movements, identify disruption early and make informed decisions before delays impact production, inventory or customer commitments. Combined with Metro's global freight expertise, MVT transforms complex supply chain data into actionable intelligence, helping businesses maintain control when international logistics become increasingly unpredictable. EMAIL Managing Director Andrew Smith today.

LHR terminal 5

Air freight markets under pressure as capacity struggles to recover

Global air freight markets continue to outperform expectations, but the balance between supply and demand remains fragile. 

What began as a short-term disruption following renewed conflict in the Middle East has evolved into a more structural capacity challenge, keeping rates elevated and limiting available space on key trade lanes.

Although airlines have adapted their networks and capacity is gradually returning, the market has yet to recover the capacity lost earlier this year. At the same time, resilient demand, particularly from the technology sector, continues to absorb available space, leaving shippers facing higher transport costs and reduced flexibility. 

Middle East disruption continues to shape the market

The collapse of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has extended disruption across international air cargo networks well beyond initial expectations.

Several major international airlines have postponed the planned resumption of passenger and freighter services to the Gulf until at least late October, delaying the return of valuable belly-hold and freighter capacity that traditionally supports Asia-Europe cargo flows.

Before the conflict, around one-third of Asia-Europe air freight transited through Middle Eastern hubs. The loss of those services removed approximately 12% of global air cargo capacity almost overnight, forcing airlines to reroute shipments through alternative gateways and deploy additional direct freighter services wherever possible.

Despite these adjustments, capacity growth has lagged behind demand throughout 2026. Global air cargo demand increased by around 4% during the first half of the year, while available capacity expanded by only around 1%, creating the imbalance that continues to support elevated freight rates.

As a result, industry forecasts have changed significantly. Expectations that freight rates would fall during 2026 have been replaced by forecasts of annual increases up to 15%, reflecting the ongoing supply constraints affecting the market.

Demand remains resilient as market dynamics evolve

While geopolitical disruption has constrained capacity, changing demand patterns are also reshaping global air freight.

The rapid growth of artificial intelligence infrastructure is generating exceptional demand for semiconductor and data centre equipment, particularly on Transpacific services. Global semiconductor sales more than doubled year on year during the spring, creating sustained demand for premium air freight capacity.

Although AI-related shipments still represent a relatively small proportion of total air cargo volumes, they are highly concentrated on key trade lanes and typically require fast, reliable transport, placing additional pressure on available freighter capacity.

By contrast, the extraordinary growth in cross-border e-commerce that has supported air freight markets in recent years is beginning to moderate.

Changes to low-value import rules in both the United States and the European Union have reduced demand for some e-commerce shipments, with exports of low-value goods from China continuing to decline. While this has eased pressure on certain trade lanes, the reduction has been more than offset by continued strength in industrial manufacturing, technology exports and higher-value cargo.

Airlines continue to compete for scarce freighter capacity

The industry's ability to respond to changing demand remains constrained by a shortage of dedicated freighter aircraft.

Delays to new passenger aircraft deliveries continue to limit passenger-to-freighter conversion programmes, restricting the supply of additional cargo aircraft entering the market. As a result, airlines are increasingly competing not only for freight but also for access to aircraft.

Rather than expanding fleets rapidly, many operators are pursuing partnerships, aircraft acquisitions and strategic investments to secure long-term capacity. Others are repositioning aircraft between markets as demand changes, with freighter deployment shifting rapidly between Asia, Europe and the Americas in response to geopolitical events, humanitarian operations and changing trade flows.

This lack of spare capacity means the market remains particularly vulnerable to further disruption. Any significant geopolitical event, weather-related disruption or operational shock has the potential to tighten capacity quickly and place renewed upward pressure on rates.

Planning ahead remains the best strategy

Although capacity is expected to improve gradually during the second half of the year, market conditions remain unpredictable.

For shippers moving time-critical or high-value cargo, securing capacity early, maintaining flexible transport options and working closely with dependable logistics partners will remain essential. Businesses that rely on just-in-time supply chains or seasonal inventory should continue to allow additional planning time while airlines rebuild network resilience.

The market has demonstrated remarkable resilience throughout 2026, but it also highlights how quickly global air freight can be reshaped by geopolitical events, changing technology demand and structural capacity constraints.

Keeping your supply chain moving

When capacity is tight, reliability, experience, network strength and proactive planning make the difference.

Metro works with leading airlines and global carrier partners to secure stable air freight capacity across key international trade lanes. Our experienced teams provide tailored routing solutions, customs expertise and end-to-end shipment management, helping customers minimise disruption and keep critical cargo moving, even in challenging market conditions.

To discuss how Metro can strengthen your global air freight strategy and support your international supply chain, EMAIL Managing Director Andrew Smith today.

FXT at dawn

Strong demand and constrained capacity are reshaping container shipping

For much of the recent past, freight markets have lurched from one disruption to another. Pandemic recovery, conflict in the Red Sea, tariff uncertainty and conflict in the Middle East have each triggered periods of higher freight rates before conditions gradually eased.

This time, however, the market appears to be changing for different reasons.

While geopolitical events continue to influence global shipping, they are no longer the only force keeping container capacity tight. Strong international trade, sustained investment in new industries and persistent congestion across global transport networks are all helping to support freight rates, suggesting the market may remain firmer than many shippers anticipated.

Global trade continues to absorb available capacity

One of the strongest indicators is that cargo volumes continue to grow despite higher transport costs.

Global container traffic has increased by around 4% year on year, with Asia-Europe volumes rising approximately 12% and Asia-North America around 11%, with indexed rates rising 150% over two quarters.

Growth is also becoming more geographically diverse. Alongside resilient demand from Europe and North America, expanding trade with Africa and Latin America is absorbing additional vessel capacity that might previously have been available elsewhere.

At the same time, the mix of cargo moving through global supply chains is changing.

Rather than retailers replenishing inventories and other traditional sources of demand, increasing volumes are being generated by long-term investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, data centres, batteries, electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies. These emerging industries will require sustained manufacturing and international transport over many years, creating a more durable source of freight demand than short-term consumer buying cycles.

More ships do not necessarily mean more capacity

Although shipping lines have ordered record numbers of new vessels, effective shipping capacity remains far tighter than headline fleet statistics suggest.

Only around 2% of the global container fleet is currently idle, while demand for charter vessels (particularly ships above 3,000 TEU) continues to strengthen. Carrier profitability also recovered sharply during the second quarter, reflecting healthier trading conditions after a difficult start to the year.

Meanwhile, operational constraints continue to reduce available capacity.

Most container services remain diverted around the Cape of Good Hope instead of using the Red Sea, significantly extending voyage times. Transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain following renewed regional tensions, while congestion at several major ports continues to delay vessel turnaround times.

Together, these factors mean carriers are deploying almost every available ship simply to maintain existing service networks.

Air freight points to the same underlying trend

Container shipping is not the only transport mode experiencing stronger market conditions.

Air freight demand has also continued to strengthen since the second quarter, despite improving airline capacity and fewer operational disruptions, driving indexed rates up by a quarter in under six months.

When both ocean and air freight markets strengthen simultaneously, it indicates that demand for international transport is expanding across global supply chains rather than being driven solely by disruption affecting one particular trade route.

For cargo owners, that provides further evidence that today's freight market reflects broader structural demand rather than temporary geopolitical events alone.

Peak season is likely to remain challenging

Looking ahead, while some softening is probably inevitable, there is little indication that market conditions will change significantly before the end of the year.

Strong demand, limited spare shipping capacity, continuing port congestion and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty are all expected to support freight rates throughout the traditional peak season.

While some carriers have begun limited returns through the Suez Canal, these remain selective and do not yet represent a wider restoration of normal operating patterns.

As a result, businesses should continue planning for constrained capacity, longer booking lead times and freight costs remaining above historical averages.

Relief is coming, but not immediately

The substantial order-book of new container ships scheduled for delivery during 2027 and 2028 should eventually restore greater balance between supply and demand.

Until then, however, the combination of resilient trade growth and restricted effective capacity is likely to keep freight markets tighter than many expected earlier this year.

Rather than waiting for rates to fall, businesses should continue reviewing freight budgets, securing capacity early and building flexibility into their supply chain planning to reduce exposure to market volatility.

Metro can help you stay ahead of changing market conditions

Freight markets are evolving rapidly, making forward planning more important than ever. Whether you're reviewing sourcing strategies, managing peak season demand or looking to reduce transport costs through smarter routing and capacity planning, Metro's ocean freight specialists can help.

With global carrier relationships, flexible routing options and tailored supply chain solutions, we work alongside customers to secure reliable capacity and build resilient logistics strategies that keep cargo moving, whatever the market conditions. 

EMAIL Metro’s Managing Director, Andrew Smith to discuss how we can support your international supply chain.

Indian port congestion looms

Global port congestion is worse than expected

Container shipping is once again under pressure from widespread port congestion, but headline delay figures are only telling part of the story.

Across major global hubs, vessel queues are building, schedules are slipping, and reliability is deteriorating. Yet at the same time, reported delay metrics appear to be improving.

The reason lies in how carriers are managing disruption.

The hidden reality of “negative delays”

Undoubtedly with best intentions shipping lines have increasingly built buffer time into schedules, to absorb ongoing disruption, particularly following prolonged diversions around the Red Sea and Middle East.

Longer published transit times allow carriers to recover from delays more effectively, meaning vessels increasingly arrive "early" against their revised schedules. While this improves official schedule performance, it can also mask the underlying level of operational disruption still affecting global networks.

This has created a growing number of early vessel arrivals, artificially reducing average delay figures. In effect, “negative delays” are obscuring the true level of disruption across global networks.

Compared to pre-pandemic norms, early arrivals have more than tripled as a share of global traffic. This indicates that schedule padding has become a structural feature of liner operations rather than a temporary adjustment.

The consequence is clear: even when reported delays appear manageable, underlying network friction remains high.

Congestion spreads across key hubs

Global port congestion has climbed to a four-year high, with over 10% of the global fleet waiting at anchorage. Across Asia, a combination of adverse weather, vessel bunching, and strong demand is driving delays higher.

The most affected locations include China’s major gateways, where waiting times are stretching into multiple days, transhipment gateways such as Singapore and major feeder hubs including Colombo and Busan, where congestion is disrupting regional connections

These delays are not isolated. They are cascading across schedules, forcing carriers to omit port calls, adjust rotations, and roll cargo onto later sailings.

In many cases, even minor delays of two to three days are proving difficult to recover across multi-port loops, amplifying disruption further downstream.

Demand keeps pressure on the system

Unlike previous congestion cycles driven purely by operational disruption, current conditions are being reinforced by strong demand.

Front-loading on key trades, particularly into the US, and resilient Asia–Europe volumes are increasing cargo dwell times and yard utilisation at ports. This reduces productivity and extends vessel turnaround times, further tightening effective capacity.

The result is a feedback loop:

  • Higher demand increases congestion
  • Congestion reduces effective capacity
  • Reduced capacity pushes freight rates higher

This dynamic is already feeding into both spot and contract pricing across major trades.

Nhava Sheva: disruption intensifies

One of the most acute examples of this disruption is currently unfolding at Nhava Sheva (JNPT), a critical gateway for Indian exports.

Severe monsoon conditions, including high winds and heavy rainfall, have significantly impacted both terminal and land-side operations. Productivity across multiple terminals has slowed sharply, with some suspensions and intermittent halts due to unsafe operating conditions.

The situation has been further exacerbated by a serious terminal incident, leading to a full suspension of operations at one facility pending investigation.

At the same time, land-side congestion has intensified, with flooding restricting access to terminals. With traffic being actively controlled several kilometres from the port cntainer gate-in and evacuation processes are heavily delayed. This combination of marine and land-side disruption is creating a severe bottleneck.

In a market where true delays are hard to see and even harder to manage local expertise and global coordination are essential.

Metro supports customers by:

  • Monitoring real-time port congestion and schedule disruption
  • Providing early warning of delays at key hubs such as Nhava Sheva
  • Securing alternative routings and contingency solutions
  • Advising on booking strategies to reduce rollover risk

With teams on the ground in key origin markets and close carrier relationships, we help customers stay ahead of disruption and overcome challenges.

To discuss your global shipping requirements or current shipments through particular hubs, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director.

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