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Middle east Crisis: global network implications

Mar 3, 2026 | 4PL, Air, Middle East, News, Sea, Supply Chain

The evolving security situation across the Middle East is now materially affecting both ocean and air freight networks, with implications extending far beyond the region itself.

The Middle East is currently classified as high-risk for international transport operations, and the resulting disruption is creating a supply chain shock with no modern precedent.

Unlike isolated regional events, this situation affects two of the world’s most critical trade corridors simultaneously: the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea/Suez route.

The ripple effects are already visible.

Ocean freight: structural disruption, not just diversion

Over 2% of the global container fleet is currently positioned in or near the Persian Gulf. Several major carriers have suspended Gulf bookings or limited transits through the Strait of Hormuz.

Whereas the Red Sea disruption allowed vessels to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, extending transit times but preserving destination access, a full restriction in the Persian Gulf removes the destination entirely for Gulf-bound cargo.

This includes major transhipment hubs handling significant volumes between Asia, the Indian Subcontinent and Europe.

Carrier responses include:

Suspension of high-risk sailings
Diversion around Southern Africa
Vessels instructed to seek safe anchorage
Potential discharge of Gulf-bound cargo at intermediate hubs

Emergency war-risk and conflict surcharges are now being applied across specific Gulf and Red Sea routes, alongside sharply rising marine insurance premiums.

The likely secondary impact:

Port congestion at alternative hubs such as Salalah, Khor Fakkan, Sohar, Duqm and Colombo
Knock-on bottlenecks at Singapore, Port Klang and Tanjung Pelepas
Upward pressure on spot rates as effective capacity tightens

The displacement of volume may take weeks, potentially months, to stabilise.

Air freight: capacity shock across a critical corridor

Air cargo networks are also under pressure.

Regional airspace closures affecting the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, Israel and Jordan have significantly reduced available lift.

Global air cargo capacity is currently down by approximately 18%, with Asia–Middle East–Europe capacity falling by around 26%.

Airlines are bypassing traditional Gulf hubs such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha, resulting in:

Increased direct Asia–Europe flights
Extended routings for India–Europe and India–North America
Congestion at alternative technical stops
A potential 7–10 day backlog, even with rapid reopening

Sustained disruption could result in upward rate movement, particularly on Asia–Europe lanes.

Wider Market Impact

Energy markets have reacted sharply, increasing fuel costs for both ocean carriers and airlines. This adds further upward pressure on operating costs and may feed through into freight pricing.

What This Means for Shippers

In practical terms, customers should expect:

Extended transit times
Volatile routing patterns
Increased surcharges
Greater congestion risk at transhipment hubs
Potential rate fluctuations

Visibility and proactive planning are now critical

At Metro, we are maintaining continuous liaison with carriers, airlines and insurers, actively reviewing alternative routing options and communicating directly with affected customers.

As geopolitical disruption reshapes trade flows, agility and early visibility will determine how effectively supply chains absorb the shock.

We will continue to provide structured updates as the situation develops.

If you would like to review exposure across your current shipments or upcoming bookings, our team is available to support scenario planning and contingency routing.

What a cooling labour market means for supply chains

Mar 3, 2026 | 4PL, Economics, News

The opening months of 2026 are bringing clearer signs of a cooling UK labour market — a notable shift after several years of acute skills shortages and sustained wage inflation.

In the logistics and supply chain sector, this transition marks a move away from emergency recruitment conditions toward a more balanced, but economically cautious, environment.

UK unemployment has risen to 5.2%, its highest level since 2021 and 0.7 percentage points above this time last year. At the same time, HMRC payroll data shows employment continuing to contract, with 43,000 fewer pay-rolled employees between November and December 2025. Overall payroll employment is now 184,000 lower year on year — the fifth consecutive monthly decline.

For logistics employers who have faced intense competition for HGV drivers, warehouse operatives and fulfilment staff, this represents a structural shift. Labour availability is improving, but it is unfolding alongside broader economic moderation rather than strong growth.

Wage growth eases

After several years of elevated pay growth, particularly in driving and last-mile delivery roles, wage pressures are now easing. Posted wage growth fell to 4.3% in December, the weakest reading since early 2022. Official ONS data shows regular pay growth at 4.5%, with real pay increasing only marginally once inflation is accounted for.

This moderation will be closely monitored by the Bank of England, as softer wage growth reduces persistent inflation risks and supports expectations of potential interest rate adjustments later in the year.

For supply chain operators, the easing in pay growth provides a degree of cost stabilisation after prolonged upward pressure on driver wages, recruitment premiums and retention incentives.

Vacancies and hiring fall

Vacancies across the UK economy have fallen to around 730,000, roughly half their mid-2022 peak. Competition for talent has therefore eased, with approximately 2.5 jobseekers per vacancy. Business surveys also point to weaker hiring intentions and a gradual rise in redundancy rates, reflecting a more fragile confidence backdrop.

In practical terms, this means recruitment pipelines are less constrained. Agency reliance may fall, lead times could shorten and workforce planning may become more predictable, particularly ahead of seasonal peaks.

After years of acute shortages, especially in HGV driving, warehousing, and forklift operations, the increasing unemployment rate and declining payrolls could lead to:

More applicants per role
Reduced recruitment lead times
Lower reliance on costly agency labour
Greater stability when planning peak‑season staffing

A Year of recalibration

Taken together, the data suggests 2026 will be characterised by labour-market recalibration rather than crisis conditions. Unemployment is rising, wage growth is normalising and hiring sentiment remains cautious.

For Metro, the focus remains on resilience and forward planning. As global trade conditions evolve and domestic economic pressures adjust, stable workforce dynamics will play a central role in maintaining service reliability and competitive cost structures throughout the year.

EMAIL Laurence Burford, Chief Financial Officer, to find out how Metro can assist in your 2026 growth plans

Blanked sailings surge as congestion and reliability continue to constrain capacity

Feb 18, 2026 | 4PL, Automotive, Chemical, China, eCommerce, Exports, Foodstuffs, Hazardous, Health, News, Project, Publishing, Retail, Sea, Supply Chain, United States

Container shipping capacity remains under pressure as carriers increase blanked sailings, schedule reliability weakens and port congestion ties up vessels across key gateways.

According to maritime researchers Drewry, 136 sailings were cancelled in February across the transpacific, Asia–Europe and transatlantic trades, a 122% increase compared with January. The surge coincides with the traditional Lunar New Year slowdown, as carriers anticipate a seasonal contraction in export volumes from Asia.

The majority of blanked sailings are concentrated on the transpacific eastbound route. While cancellations are expected to ease in March, with only 53 blank sailings currently announced, February’s reductions represent a material short-term withdrawal of capacity from the market.

Reliability slips back

Schedule reliability also deteriorated in December. Global on-time performance fell by 1.2 percentage points month-on-month to 62.8%, the second-lowest reading since May.

Average vessel delay increased to 5.04 days, the second-highest level since April.

While reliability remains 9% higher year-on-year, performance across the major carrier groups remains uneven. Maersk recorded 76.7% schedule reliability in December, followed by Hapag-Lloyd at 75.2%. Eight of the top 13 carriers operated within the 50–60% range, while Wan Hai recorded 47.8%.

Alliance performance also diverged. In November and December, Gemini Cooperation achieved 92.3% reliability across all arrivals, compared with 73.5% for MSC and 58.8% for Ocean Alliance.

Lower reliability effectively reduces usable capacity. Late arrivals compress schedules, extend port stays and create knock-on disruption across subsequent rotations.

Northern Europe congestion continues

Port congestion continues to tie up vessels, particularly across Northern Europe. Winter weather has reduced terminal productivity in Antwerp, Hamburg and Rotterdam, with berth delays of three to five days reported. Le Havre is experiencing delays of up to eight days following temporary terminal closures.

Yard utilisation levels remain elevated across major European hubs, including UK ports. London Gateway and Southampton are reporting intermittent delays of one to two days, while Felixstowe has seen delays of up to five days.

Operational disruption is also reported in Poland, where snow and frozen equipment have affected both port and inland transport productivity.

Analysts estimate that congestion can effectively absorb around 6% of the global fleet at any given time, limiting available vessel supply.

Outlook remains challenging

Despite a global order-book equivalent to 34% of the existing fleet, the highest level since before the financial crisis, effective capacity remains sensitive to operational constraints.

Sea-Intelligence forecasts structural overcapacity could approach 10% by 2027, even when factoring in slow steaming, congestion, Red Sea diversions and scrapping of older tonnage.

In the near term, however, blanked sailings, reliability slippage and port congestion continue to determine how much capacity is actually available to shippers, regardless of headline fleet growth.

Metro’s sea freight team continuously model the potential impact of blank sailings, so we can secure space, optimise routings and build contingency plans around our customers’ specific flows.

By sharing your forecasts and critical SKUs early, we can ring-fence capacity, minimise disruption and shield you from service disruption and last-minute surcharges.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, today to arrange a strategic review and lock in the resilience you need for 2026 and beyond.

US winter disruption ripples through truck, rail and intermodal networks

Feb 18, 2026 | 4PL, Automotive, Chemical, eCommerce, Exports, Foodstuffs, Hazardous, Intermodal, News, Project, Publishing, Sea, United States, Weather

Severe winter weather across the United States has triggered the sharpest short-term trucking spot rate spike in more than three years, with disruption now filtering upstream into inland rail and intermodal hubs.

Snow and ice blanketing large parts of the eastern US drove a 40% week-on-week increase in spot market load posts. Dry-van spot rates climbed 11 cents in seven days, the steepest weekly rise since early 2021, while temperature-controlled (reefer) capacity jumped 15 cents week over week as shippers scrambled for freeze protection.

Unlike previous disruption events, the system now has less “buffer” capacity. Market reaction to the latest storm has been more severe than that seen after Hurricane Helene in September 2024, when spot loads rose 17% and rates increased just 4 cents week over week.

With tighter latent capacity, even short-lived weather events are producing outsized pricing swings.

Structural factors could extend pressure

January manufacturing data from the Institute for Supply Management moved back above the 50 baseline into expansion territory for the first time in more than a year, fuelling speculation that the freight recession may be bottoming out.

At the same time, federal enforcement activity around non-domiciled commercial driver’s licences (CDLs) and English-language proficiency requirements is reportedly pushing shippers towards asset-based carriers with company drivers. That shift could reduce available independent capacity, adding structural support to contract and spot rate increases, particularly as the spring produce season approaches.

If reefer markets tighten sharply during produce season, rate pressure is likely to cascade into dry-van networks, making elevated pricing more durable through 2026.

Rail and intermodal congestion follows the storm

While Class I rail line-haul performance has largely normalised, disruption has migrated inland. Rail terminals including Memphis, Chicago and Cincinnati are now experiencing post-storm congestion.

At key inland hubs, container availability times have doubled from around one day to two days. Data from technology provider E-Dray shows that average availability at Union Pacific’s Memphis terminal rose from 0.7 days pre-storm to 2.9 days after the event.

Transit times between Kansas and Illinois spiked to nearly 80 hours before easing to around 35 hours. Mississippi–Illinois transits briefly doubled to 19 hours before settling closer to 10 hours.

Drivers report waiting up to five hours inside terminals, missing delivery windows and triggering demurrage exposure. The issue is not chassis shortages but crane and yard capacity constraints in freezing conditions.

Union Pacific’s decision to levy “flip fees” for lifting containers from stacks, a charge not typically applied by other North American Class I railroads or major US ports, has added further cost pressure for drayage providers, costs that are not being absorbed by cargo owners.

What this means for importers and exporters

For international shippers moving freight into and out of the US, the key risk lies in the inland leg:

Higher US trucking spot rates can quickly erode landed-cost assumptions.
Intermodal congestion extends container dwell time and increases demurrage and detention exposure.
Reefer market tightening during produce season could distort both temperature-controlled and dry-van pricing.
Inland rail volatility can delay export positioning, affecting vessel cut-offs and schedule integrity.

Weather-related disruption may ease, but reduced capacity buffers mean price and service volatility can persist longer than the storm itself.

How Metro supports shippers through US inland volatility

Metro works with importing and exporting customers to reduce exposure to short-term inland shocks through:

Pre-planned multimodal routing strategies
Secured trucking and intermodal capacity with vetted asset-based partners
Active dwell-time and demurrage monitoring
Early visibility of rail terminal congestion
Contingency planning ahead of seasonal inflection points such as produce season

In volatile inland markets, control and foresight matter as much as headline freight rates.

If your US supply chain is exposed to trucking or intermodal risk, EMAIL our managing director, Andrew Smith, to learn about building resilience into your routing strategy, before the next disruption hits.

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