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Global trade powers towards a record 2025 with 2026 looking stronger

Feb 4, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

With the flow of goods providing the real momentum, global trade closed 2025 at record levels, with the outlook for an even more robust 2026. 

Despite geopolitical tension, shifting trade policy and lingering supply-chain risk, the movement of physical goods continues to expand, reinforcing the central role of logistics, freight forwarding and international distribution in the global economy.

Latest analysis from UNCTAD shows that global trade values reached unprecedented highs in 2025, driven primarily by growth in merchandise trade rather than services. Manufacturing output, consumer goods and industrial products have all contributed to the uplift, underlining how resilient goods-led supply chains have become after years of disruption.

Strong demand for manufactured products and critical raw materials has supported higher trade volumes across Asia, Europe and North America. Supply chains have adapted to volatility, with shippers diversifying sourcing, rebalancing inventories and building more flexible transport strategies.

A more constructive outlook for 2026

Forecasts point to continued expansion in global goods trade, supported by easing inflationary pressure, stabilising interest rates and renewed confidence among manufacturers and retailers.

For shippers, this means planning for growth rather than contraction. For logistics providers, it reinforces the need to invest ahead of demand: in people, systems, networks and international coverage.

As trade volumes rise, so does the need for globally connected logistics partners. End-to-end visibility, local market expertise and seamless coordination across borders are becoming prerequisites rather than differentiators. Businesses need partners that can support expansion into new markets without adding complexity or risk.

This is where international network strength becomes critical. Not just in headline trade lanes, but across secondary markets and emerging corridors where growth is accelerating fastest.

Supporting growth through global expansion

Metro’s own international expansion reflects these structural shifts in global trade. As goods flows increase and supply chains become more geographically diverse, Metro continues to invest in new offices both nationally and internationally, strengthening its ability to support customers wherever their trade takes them.

By expanding its global footprint, Metro is aligning its services with the realities of modern goods trade: faster decision-making, stronger local execution and closer proximity to customers and suppliers.

Whether you are entering new markets, reshaping sourcing strategies or scaling established flows, our teams combine local expertise with global reach to keep your goods moving reliably and competitively.

EMAIL Andrew Smith our Managing Director today to see how our expanding international footprint can support your global trade ambitions.

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Carriers pause plans to restore Suez routes

Feb 4, 2026 | , ,

Hopes of a return to Red Sea and Suez Canal transits are fading again as renewed security threats from the potential resumption of Houthi attacks inject fresh uncertainty into global container shipping. 

While some carriers had begun cautiously testing the shorter route between Asia, Europe and the US East Coast, renewed threats from Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group on 26 January — alongside the movement of a US aircraft carrier into the region — have raised tensions again, suggesting that any widespread reinstatement is likely to remain on hold.

Most commercial shipping diverted away from the Red Sea more than two years ago after attacks on merchant vessels made the route untenable. A ceasefire in Gaza late last year temporarily eased tensions, prompting limited transits through the Suez Canal and renewed discussion around normalising networks.

Several container lines had started to experiment with Red Sea transits, viewing the route as a way to reduce sailing times, fuel costs and schedule complexity. CMA CGM and Maersk both completed recent canal passages, signalling tentative confidence that conditions were improving.

That confidence has since weakened and escalating tensions have reintroduced risk at a time when carriers remain highly sensitive to crew safety, insurance exposure and service disruption. As a result, carriers will continue to favour longer routings around the Cape of Good Hope, prioritising predictability over speed.

Capacity management shapes carrier behaviour

The prolonged diversion around southern Africa has absorbed a meaningful share of global container capacity, helping carriers manage oversupply and support freight rates.

It is now looking extremely unlikely that we will see any sudden, full-scale return to the Suez. Instead, carriers will adopt a phased approach, selectively reinstating services while retaining contingency plans. This gradual reintroduction will allow their networks to stabilise while minimising rate volatility or widespread congestion across ports and inland infrastructure.

The Asia–Europe trade stands to feel the greatest impact from any shift. Before the Red Sea crisis, close to a third of global container volumes passed through the Suez Canal, compared with a smaller share of US-bound cargo. As a result, European importers and exporters remain most exposed to changes in routing strategy.

Market uncertainty around Red Sea access continues to influence pricing behaviour. Spot rates have already fluctuated ahead of the Lunar New Year slowdown, with carriers competing to secure volumes. While extended diversions can support rates by tightening effective capacity, that support may be critical if demand weakens seasonally.

For now, the Red Sea remains a route under review  and contingency planning remains central to carrier network design. Until the security environment stabilises decisively, most operators are expected to maintain flexible routing strategies, balancing risk, cost and capacity discipline until H2.

With ongoing uncertainty in the Red Sea, shippers need flexible routing options, up-to-date market insight and a logistics partner that can adapt quickly as conditions change.

Metro works closely with customers to assess risk, plan alternative routings and maintain supply-chain continuity, whether services transit the Suez or divert via the Cape of Good Hope.

EMAIL Managing Director, Andrew Smith, today to review your current routing strategy and ensure your supply chain remains resilient in a volatile operating environment.

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Cautious CNY trans-Pacific surge

Jan 21, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , ,

The trans-Pacific sea freight market is entering 2026 with pre-Chinese New Year volumes rising earlier than usual, spot rates climbing sharply and carriers leaning on capacity discipline to manage risk.

Despite Chinese New Year falling later than usual this year, shipment activity has moved forward, with volumes building three to four weeks earlier than the historical pattern. Import bookings from Asia to North America strengthened through December and into early January, marking the first month-on-month increase in six months.

According to the National Retail Federation, this uplift reflects a brief pre-holiday bump rather than a sustained restocking cycle. The organisation expects imports to soften again after Chinese New Year, in line with the usual post-holiday retail lull.

Forecasts for the US West Coast gateway show import volumes reaching a short-term high in early January, with weekly throughput at levels associated with a solid operating week. Volumes are then expected to ease back over the following weeks into a more typical seasonal lull, before recovering again from mid-February as cargo loaded just ahead of factory shutdowns arrives.

This pattern reinforces the view that the current lift is driven by timing rather than a fundamental demand shift.

Blank sailings shape the market response

Carrier behaviour has been decisive. In the five-week window from weeks 04 to 08, carriers have announced 68 blank sailings from approximately 698 scheduled departures from Asia, equating to around 10% of planned capacity being withdrawn.

Blankings are heavily concentrated on the trans-Pacific eastbound trade, which accounts for 47% of all announced cancellations. This targeted withdrawal has allowed carriers to manage utilisation closely, supporting pricing without widespread disruption to schedules.

Against this backdrop, spot rates from Asia to the US West Coast have increased by more than 40% over the past four weeks, with East Coast pricing up by around one-third over the same period. These gains follow a period of relatively muted demand and reflect a combination of seasonal lift and disciplined capacity management rather than space shortages.

Importantly, recent general rate increase attempts have shown limited staying power, indicating that while carriers have succeeded in lifting the rate floor, pricing remains sensitive to demand signals. The current rate environment is nevertheless viewed as sufficient to underpin upcoming service contract negotiations, with spot levels sitting comfortably above existing contract benchmarks.

Demand remains measured

Despite the visible rate movement, inventory indicators suggest a restrained demand environment. Importers are largely shipping against existing orders rather than aggressively pulling forward inventory. Inventory growth has slowed, and fourth-quarter volumes were slightly lower year on year, reflecting the unusually strong import levels seen in early 2025.

Looking ahead, expectations centre on a modest improvement rather than a repeat of last year’s surge. Trade growth forecasts for 2026 point to low single-digit expansion, consistent with a market returning to more traditional seasonal peaks and troughs.

With strategic capacity management and long-established ocean carrier relationships, Metro is helping customers secure space, optimise rates and keep high-priority cargo moving across key trans-Pacific lanes. As blank sailings and new rate initiatives reshape the market, proactive planning and flexible routing have never been more important.

Metro’s growing local presence in the United States further strengthens this approach, giving shippers on-the-ground support, closer carrier engagement and greater control across Asia–US supply chains.
https://metro.global/news/metro-global-usa-building-momentum-in-a-key-market/

If your business depends on reliable Asia–US trade flows, EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to explore how expert guidance, tailored solutions and strong carrier partnerships can keep your supply chain agile and cost-effective—whatever the market brings.

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Disciplined capacity management shaping CNY sea freight

Jan 21, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , ,

As Chinese New Year approaches, sea freight markets from Asia to Europe and the United States are being shaped less by price competition and more by carrier control.

This year’s seasonal peak has arrived earlier than normal, with demand pulled forward and capacity actively withdrawn to protect network balance. While spot rates have eased after a brief pre-holiday lift, this is a short-term, seasonal adjustment rather than a shift in market fundamentals.

Seasonal patterns are moving forward

Historic Chinese New Year patterns place rate peaks two to four weeks before factory shutdowns. This year, those peaks have arrived earlier across all major east–west lanes.

On Asia–Europe routes, rate momentum has advanced by around two weeks, while trans-Pacific trades are peaking three to four weeks ahead of normal.

This shift reflects early shipping activity as exporters accelerated cargo flows into January, compressing the traditional pre-CNY cycle and bringing forward rate support.

Targeted blank sailings tighten supply

Carrier response has been swift and highly targeted. In the five-week window from weeks 04 to 08, carriers have announced 68 blank sailings from approximately 698 scheduled departures, equating to around 10% of planned capacity being withdrawn.

Blankings are concentrated where pressure is greatest:

– 47% on trans-Pacific eastbound services
– 38% on Asia–Europe and Mediterranean routes
– 15% on transatlantic westbound services

Despite these cancellations, around 90% of sailings remain scheduled to operate, underlining that capacity management is selective rather than disruptive.

After six consecutive weeks of gains on Asia–Europe trades leading into a seasonal mini-peak, spot freight rates now sit below early-2025 highs, reinforcing that recent movements reflect timing effects rather than a weakening market.

Reliability and disruption remain constraints

Operational performance continues to limit flexibility. Global on-time performance stands at 47%, down two percentage points month on month, with reliability slipping on both trans-Pacific and Asia–Europe routes.

Winter weather disruption in Europe and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty around key maritime corridors are adding further unpredictability to schedules.

As the market moves through Chinese New Year and into the post-holiday reset, carriers retain the tools to rebalance supply quickly, meaning any near-term easing should be viewed as temporary rather than structural.

Metro’s sea freight team is already modelling Jan/Feb blank sailings and CNY rush patterns, so we can secure space, optimise routings and build contingency plans around your specific flows.

By sharing your forecasts and critical SKUs early, we can ring-fence capacity, minimise disruption and shield you as far as possible from threatened GRIs and last-minute surcharges.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, today to arrange a strategic review of your ex-Asia shipping patterns and lock in the resilience you need for CNY 2026 and beyond.

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