Blanking is biting

Blanked sailings surge as congestion and reliability continue to constrain capacity

Feb 18, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Container shipping capacity remains under pressure as carriers increase blanked sailings, schedule reliability weakens and port congestion ties up vessels across key gateways.

According to maritime researchers Drewry, 136 sailings were cancelled in February across the transpacific, Asia–Europe and transatlantic trades, a 122% increase compared with January. The surge coincides with the traditional Lunar New Year slowdown, as carriers anticipate a seasonal contraction in export volumes from Asia.

The majority of blanked sailings are concentrated on the transpacific eastbound route. While cancellations are expected to ease in March, with only 53 blank sailings currently announced, February’s reductions represent a material short-term withdrawal of capacity from the market.

Reliability slips back

Schedule reliability also deteriorated in December. Global on-time performance fell by 1.2 percentage points month-on-month to 62.8%, the second-lowest reading since May. 

Average vessel delay increased to 5.04 days, the second-highest level since April.

While reliability remains 9% higher year-on-year, performance across the major carrier groups remains uneven. Maersk recorded 76.7% schedule reliability in December, followed by Hapag-Lloyd at 75.2%. Eight of the top 13 carriers operated within the 50–60% range, while Wan Hai recorded 47.8%.

Alliance performance also diverged. In November and December, Gemini Cooperation achieved 92.3% reliability across all arrivals, compared with 73.5% for MSC and 58.8% for Ocean Alliance.

Lower reliability effectively reduces usable capacity. Late arrivals compress schedules, extend port stays and create knock-on disruption across subsequent rotations.

Northern Europe congestion continues

Port congestion continues to tie up vessels, particularly across Northern Europe. Winter weather has reduced terminal productivity in Antwerp, Hamburg and Rotterdam, with berth delays of three to five days reported. Le Havre is experiencing delays of up to eight days following temporary terminal closures.

Yard utilisation levels remain elevated across major European hubs, including UK ports. London Gateway and Southampton are reporting intermittent delays of one to two days, while Felixstowe has seen delays of up to five days.

Operational disruption is also reported in Poland, where snow and frozen equipment have affected both port and inland transport productivity.

Analysts estimate that congestion can effectively absorb around 6% of the global fleet at any given time, limiting available vessel supply.

Outlook remains challenging

Despite a global order-book equivalent to 34% of the existing fleet, the highest level since before the financial crisis, effective capacity remains sensitive to operational constraints.

Sea-Intelligence forecasts structural overcapacity could approach 10% by 2027, even when factoring in slow steaming, congestion, Red Sea diversions and scrapping of older tonnage.

In the near term, however, blanked sailings, reliability slippage and port congestion continue to determine how much capacity is actually available to shippers, regardless of headline fleet growth.

Metro’s sea freight team continuously model the potential impact of blank sailings, so we can secure space, optimise routings and build contingency plans around our customers’ specific flows.

By sharing your forecasts and critical SKUs early, we can ring-fence capacity, minimise disruption and shield you from service disruption and last-minute surcharges.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, today to arrange a strategic review and lock in the resilience you need for 2026 and beyond.

US winter storm

US winter disruption ripples through truck, rail and intermodal networks

Feb 18, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Severe winter weather across the United States has triggered the sharpest short-term trucking spot rate spike in more than three years, with disruption now filtering upstream into inland rail and intermodal hubs.

Snow and ice blanketing large parts of the eastern US drove a 40% week-on-week increase in spot market load posts. Dry-van spot rates climbed 11 cents in seven days, the steepest weekly rise since early 2021, while temperature-controlled (reefer) capacity jumped 15 cents week over week as shippers scrambled for freeze protection.

Unlike previous disruption events, the system now has less “buffer” capacity. Market reaction to the latest storm has been more severe than that seen after Hurricane Helene in September 2024, when spot loads rose 17% and rates increased just 4 cents week over week.

With tighter latent capacity, even short-lived weather events are producing outsized pricing swings.

Structural factors could extend pressure

January manufacturing data from the Institute for Supply Management moved back above the 50 baseline into expansion territory for the first time in more than a year, fuelling speculation that the freight recession may be bottoming out.

At the same time, federal enforcement activity around non-domiciled commercial driver’s licences (CDLs) and English-language proficiency requirements is reportedly pushing shippers towards asset-based carriers with company drivers. That shift could reduce available independent capacity, adding structural support to contract and spot rate increases, particularly as the spring produce season approaches.

If reefer markets tighten sharply during produce season, rate pressure is likely to cascade into dry-van networks, making elevated pricing more durable through 2026.

Rail and intermodal congestion follows the storm

While Class I rail line-haul performance has largely normalised, disruption has migrated inland. Rail terminals including Memphis, Chicago and Cincinnati are now experiencing post-storm congestion.

At key inland hubs, container availability times have doubled from around one day to two days. Data from technology provider E-Dray shows that average availability at Union Pacific’s Memphis terminal rose from 0.7 days pre-storm to 2.9 days after the event.

Transit times between Kansas and Illinois spiked to nearly 80 hours before easing to around 35 hours. Mississippi–Illinois transits briefly doubled to 19 hours before settling closer to 10 hours.

Drivers report waiting up to five hours inside terminals, missing delivery windows and triggering demurrage exposure. The issue is not chassis shortages but crane and yard capacity constraints in freezing conditions.

Union Pacific’s decision to levy “flip fees” for lifting containers from stacks, a charge not typically applied by other North American Class I railroads or major US ports, has added further cost pressure for drayage providers, costs that are not being absorbed by cargo owners.

What this means for importers and exporters

For international shippers moving freight into and out of the US, the key risk lies in the inland leg:

  • Higher US trucking spot rates can quickly erode landed-cost assumptions.
  • Intermodal congestion extends container dwell time and increases demurrage and detention exposure.
  • Reefer market tightening during produce season could distort both temperature-controlled and dry-van pricing.
  • Inland rail volatility can delay export positioning, affecting vessel cut-offs and schedule integrity.

Weather-related disruption may ease, but reduced capacity buffers mean price and service volatility can persist longer than the storm itself.

How Metro supports shippers through US inland volatility

Metro works with importing and exporting customers to reduce exposure to short-term inland shocks through:

  • Pre-planned multimodal routing strategies
  • Secured trucking and intermodal capacity with vetted asset-based partners
  • Active dwell-time and demurrage monitoring
  • Early visibility of rail terminal congestion
  • Contingency planning ahead of seasonal inflection points such as produce season

In volatile inland markets, control and foresight matter as much as headline freight rates.

If your US supply chain is exposed to trucking or intermodal risk, EMAIL our managing director, Andrew Smith, to learn about building resilience into your routing strategy, before the next disruption hits.

HKG port

Pre-CNY sea freight reliability is breaking down at origin

Feb 5, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Chinese New Year 2026 falls on Tuesday, 17 February, marking the start of the Year of the Fire Horse. While the official public holiday in China runs from 17–23 February, the operational impact on global supply chains is far longer.

In practice, factories, trucking networks and export operations begin winding down weeks before the holiday. Full production and logistics capacity typically does not return until early March, meaning the effective disruption window stretches across six to eight weeks.

In the run-up to Chinese New Year, ocean carriers are releasing significantly more bookings than they can physically load. This reflects the need to honour minimum quantity commitments (MQCs) while simultaneously building vessel pools ahead of the holiday shutdown.

The consequence is a sharp rise in rolled cargo at ports of loading and transhipment hubs. Confirmed bookings are increasingly failing to convert into loaded containers, particularly where space has been secured on standard spot terms. Even services that previously offered a degree of loading assurance are now seeing rollovers as pressure builds.

“Guaranteed” loading is increasingly limited to premium, prepaid options, while some previously protected spot services are now also experiencing rollovers. For shippers, this means booking confirmation alone no longer equates to reliability during the pre-CNY window.

Congestion is building at key Chinese ports

The impact of overbooking is being felt most acutely at Chinese ports of loading, where inbound container volumes are exceeding what terminals can process or load onto vessels.

Ports such as Ningbo and Nansha are already experiencing severe congestion, with vessel delays compounding the problem. In some locations, terminals are restricting gate-in to containers with pre-booked slots only. Once a vessel’s allocation is reached, additional containers are rejected, forcing cargo to wait for later sailings and triggering extra storage, trucking and handling costs.

Even where shippers deliver cargo early, there is no guarantee it will be accepted or loaded as planned.

Alongside port congestion, a series of inland constraints are converging. Equipment shortages, delayed EIR release, limited truck availability and labour shortages are all becoming more pronounced as workers begin leaving ahead of the holiday.

Access to gate-in slots is tightening, CY cut-offs are less flexible, and minor delays can quickly cascade into missed sailings. These constraints mean that execution risk is now driven as much by inland logistics as by vessel capacity itself.

What this means for shippers

The key challenge for 2026 is that Chinese New Year disruption is not a single event, but a prolonged period of reduced reliability. In the Year of the Fire Horse — traditionally associated with speed, intensity and unpredictability — supply chains are feeling the effects in real time.

Some shipments will be rolled repeatedly. Others will ultimately miss the pre-holiday window altogether. As the holiday itself approaches, the focus shifts from optimisation to prioritisation: deciding which cargo must move and which can wait.

Planning beyond the holiday

Risk does not end on 23 February. Cargo that fails to ship before the holiday is likely to face a post-CNY gap of two to three weeks, as factories, terminals and trucking networks restart gradually. Many operations do not return to full capacity until early March, creating a temporary vacuum and renewed pressure on early post-holiday sailings.

If you are shipping from Asia ahead of Chinese New Year — or planning post-holiday restart volumes — now is the time to review priorities and timelines. EMAIL our Managing Director, Andrew Smith, to assess options and manage risk across your supply chain.

Shanghai Hongqiao Airport 1440x1080 1

Air freight markets firm as Chinese New Year front-loading reshapes early-year demand

Feb 5, 2026 | , , , , , , , , , ,

Air freight markets have entered the new year on firmer footing than many expected, with volumes rebounding sharply through January as shippers accelerate movements ahead of earlier-than-usual Chinese New Year factory shutdowns. 

While underlying demand remains uneven, front-loading has concentrated uplift into a narrower time window, particularly on East–West and transpacific trade lanes.

Global air cargo volumes increased by around 5% year on year in the second and third weeks of January, with chargeable weight recovering rapidly from the post-Christmas slowdown. Volumes remain approximately 10% below mid-December peak levels, but are now close to pre-holiday norms and materially stronger than the same period last year, helped by a softer start to 2025.

Asia–Europe demand has accelerated faster than Asia–North America, reflecting front-loaded demand across North and Southeast Asia. Volumes from Asia Pacific to Europe rose by close to 20% year on year in mid-January, with particularly strong growth from Southeast Asian origins alongside solid demand from China and Hong Kong.

The transpacific market is also improving, but with more uneven performance. Asia–US volumes were up by around 6% year on year, masking significant divergence beneath the headline number. Shipments from Southeast Asia to the US have continued to post double-digit growth, while volumes from China and Hong Kong remain below last year’s levels. This pattern reflects ongoing supply-chain diversification rather than a uniform demand recovery.

Front-loading adds to traditional peak

This year’s Chinese New Year dynamic differs markedly from historical norms. Rather than a late-January surge, earlier factory shutdowns have pulled production and uplift forward into the first half of the month. Manufacturing windows are tighter, shipping schedules more compressed and cargo flows more concentrated.

Unlike previous years, ocean freight’s pre-holiday volume spike has been somewhat muted, pushing a greater share of time-critical shipments into the air. Air volumes are firm, but not at the extreme peak levels seen in prior cycles.

Capacity behaviour is now the dominant market influence. Freighter operators have reinstated aircraft quickly following the year-end peak, with freighter capacity rising by more than 15% week on week in early January. Overall global air cargo capacity remains around 7% below mid-December highs, but has rebounded faster than demand in several markets.

This rapid capacity return prevented the sharp rate escalation typically associated with Chinese New Year. Average global air freight rates sitting roughly 10% below mid-December levels, but still slightly above the same period last year. On transpacific lanes, pricing to the US West Coast has largely stabilised, with East Coast rates modestly higher.

Concentrated production cycles, e-commerce demand and high-value cargo flows are sustaining baseline volumes. At the same time, uncertainty around ocean routing and the unlikely return of container services through the Red Sea in H1 continues to underpin air demand on selected lanes.

Securing space at the right time, and at the right cost, requires proactive planning and real-time market insight.

Metro works closely with shippers and carrier partners to manage uplift around peak periods, optimise routing and balance speed against cost as market conditions shift. Our teams monitor capacity, rates and network changes daily to help customers move time-critical cargo with confidence.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Metro’s Managing Director, today to review your air freight strategy and ensure your supply chain stays resilient through the first half of 2026.

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