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UK Economic Pulse: Stagnation in July Signals a Fragile Balance for Trade

Sep 17, 2025 | , , , , , , ,

The UK economy stalled in July 2025, with GDP flatlining after June’s 0.4% rise. While this performance matched market expectations, the detail matters: services and construction posted marginal gains, but a 0.9% drop in industrial output dragged the total to zero.

For manufacturers, the 1.3% decline in production over the three months to July is a warning sign. Weakness in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, which typically underpin high-value exports, reflects reduced investment and ongoing global trade frictions. For importers, slower factory output means less demand for inbound raw materials and components, while exporters face thinner volumes and heightened uncertainty around international orders.

Services activity edged up by 0.1% in July, supported by retail and hospitality, while construction expanded 0.2%. For retailers, this stability is important as consumer-facing demand keeps supply chains active and underpins steady import flows of finished goods.

The resilience of construction, meanwhile, sustains demand for bulk transport, materials distribution, and specialist haulage.

Retail and eCommerce continue to play a vital role in logistics real estate, driving nearly one-third of all industrial and warehouse take-up in the 12 months to Q2 2025. However, rising vacancies and slower rental growth suggest a more competitive property market, with prime property leading.

A Slow-Growth Outlook

Economists forecast modest UK growth of 0.3% for Q3, keeping recession fears at bay but offering little upside. For manufacturers and exporters, this translates into subdued demand at home and limited relief from external pressures. Importers may see steadier conditions if services-driven consumer activity holds, but global headwinds, from tariffs to shifting sourcing strategies, will continue.

For logistics providers, the picture is mixed: growth in some verticals offsets decline in others, but rising operating costs and skills shortages are eroding margins. Many firms are delaying expansion or fleet upgrades until greater economic clarity emerges.

The Bank of England cut rates to 4% in August but has since signalled a pause on further easing. Inflation, still close to 4%, and slowing wage growth leave policymakers cautious. 

For SMEs in logistics and manufacturing, elevated borrowing costs remain a major obstacle. Access to affordable credit is restricted, curbing investment in new vehicles, facilities, and technology. Nearly one-third of smaller operators report scaling back operations due to finance constraints.

Retailers and importers, heavily reliant on efficient logistics, are indirectly affected. Higher financing costs across the supply chain can reduce investment in capacity and innovation, tightening the system at a time when resilience is most needed.

Logistics as an Economic Anchor

Despite these challenges, the logistics industry continues to prove its value. Contributing over £170 billion to the economy in 2024 and employing more than 8% of the workforce, logistics underpins every sector that manufacturers, retailers, importers, and exporters depend on.

Occupier demand for prime logistics space remains steady, investment volumes are expected to rise in the second half of the year, and long-term fundamentals are strong. Yet the market is shifting. New warehouse completions and a rise in secondhand stock are pushing up vacancy rates, softening rents, and increasing incentives for occupiers, which may present opportunities to secure favourable terms in a cooling market.

Conclusion: Caution and Opportunity

July’s GDP stagnation is not a crisis, but a signal that the economy is balancing precariously. Manufacturers face declining output, retailers and construction are holding the line, and importers and exporters must manage supply chains against a backdrop of tariffs, weak trade flows, and limited finance.

Logistics sits at the centre of this crossroads. The sector is challenged, but it also offers opportunities—from property leverage to supply chain optimisation—for businesses that act decisively. For shippers, the message is clear: staying agile, building resilience, and forging strong logistics partnerships will be critical to navigating the months ahead.

With growth flat and costs elevated, every decision on sourcing, inventory, capacity and space matters. Metro combines market monitoring with cost modelling, contract strategy and logistics optimisation to help you seize opportunities and protect margins.

EMAIL Laurence Burford, CFO, for expert guidance on risk management and supply chain resilience.

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Resetting UK–EU trade

Sep 17, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Five years on from the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) and with the 2026 review fast approaching, the UK and EU have a chance to move beyond firefighting and design a trading relationship that works in today’s economy.

A new Parliamentary report from the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade sets out a practical roadmap to turn trade friction into advantage, by prioritising digital connectivity, trusted cooperation and real-world fixes for businesses, especially SMEs.

Exports in services have grown, but goods trade, and particularly for smaller exporters, still hits too many barriers. The Institute proposes a coherent package of measures that reduces cost and complexity at the border, unlocks mobility and skills, and aligns climate and industrial policies so supply chains can invest with confidence.

h4b>The Institute’s eight recommendations

1) Streamline borders and customs

  • Build interoperable UK–EU digital trade corridors to remove duplication and delays.
  • Create a Common Security Zone to simplify newer safety and security requirements.
  • Align the UK’s Trade Strategy with the EU Customs Reform programme to deliver a seamless user experience.

2) Make SPS trade predictable

  • Implement the Common Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Area via a joint SPS committee (as trailed at the 2025 summit).
  • Work directly with industry to fix recurring pain points in food, plant and animal movements.

3) Modernise rules of origin

  • Simplify and harmonise product-specific rules in the TCA.
  • Enable diagonal cumulation with shared FTA partners.
  • Consider UK participation in the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean (PEM) Convention to increase sourcing flexibility.

4) Deepen regulatory cooperation

  • Use outcome-based equivalence and dynamic alignment where it matters most.
  • Strike targeted “side deals”, including mutual recognition for conformity assessment, and collaborate on emerging areas such as AI and digital trade.

5) Link carbon and energy frameworks

  • Link UK and EU emissions trading schemes and align CBAM approaches.
  • Broaden energy cooperation to support secure, affordable decarbonisation.

6) Back Northern Ireland’s dual-market role

  • Build on the Windsor Framework to deepen trade, energy and mobility links.
  • Position Northern Ireland as a practical model of friction-reduction that benefits both sides.

7) Enable skills and mobility

  • Launch a reciprocal youth mobility scheme and explore re-entry to Erasmus+.
  • Accelerate mutual recognition of professional qualifications in high-impact sectors.

8) Align industrial and digital policy

  • Establish a UK–EU Industrial Cooperation Council to coordinate investment, innovation and regulation.
  • Add a dedicated digital trade chapter to future-proof the partnership.

The last five years have shown that technical workarounds are not enough. SMEs need consistent rules, fewer duplicative checks and clearer pathways. By sequencing border simplification, SPS certainty and origin reform, policymakers can cut costs quickly while building a platform for long-term competitiveness.

What success would look like

  • Lower cost-to-export for SMEs through simplified formalities and interoperable systems.
  • Faster, more predictable food flows via an SPS framework that solves problems at source.
  • More resilient supply chains thanks to compatible rules and modernised origin provisions.
  • A digital-ready TCA that reflects how firms actually trade in 2026 and beyond.

From rules-of-origin compliance to fast-changing customs requirements, our experts deliver integrated and automated solutions that simplify compliance, cut costs and keep your trade moving.

To learn about our automated CuDoS platform and how we can help you navigate the evolving UK–EU trade environment with confidence, please EMAIL our Managing Director Andrew Smith today.

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Asia Pacific Freight Markets Reshape as Tariffs Shift Trade Flows

Sep 3, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Air and sea freight in the Asia Pacific region is at the centre of global freight realignments, as eCommerce and feeder shipping operations are reshaped by recent policy changes in the US. 

Adjustments to tariff rules and the elimination of duty exemptions have pushed shippers to reconsider sourcing strategies, shifting some flows from China to other Asia Pacific markets while amplifying pressure on already-congested sea and air networks.

Air cargo: eCommerce realignment

The removal of de minimis exemptions on China–US eCommerce shipments has sharply reduced volumes from mainland China and Hong Kong to the US, while boosting flows from alternative Asia Pacific origins and into Europe.

Airlines across the region reported strong growth in July, as exporters diverted shipments to avoid tariff penalties and took advantage of front-loading opportunities during temporary pauses in tariff implementation.

This shift highlights the growing role of Asia Pacific beyond China in meeting US and European demand, with trade lanes from Southeast Asia and emerging eCommerce hubs gaining traction. While China remains dominant in cross-border online trade, its reduced share of US-bound volumes has accelerated diversification across the region.

Sea freight: Feeder bottlenecks

At the same time, feeder shortages in Southeast Asia are disrupting supply chains, delaying transshipments and creating congestion at major hubs including Singapore (operating near 90% yard capacity), Shanghai, Ningbo and Port Klang.

Shippers are being forced to secure space weeks in advance, with rolled cargo and high yard density compounding the disruption.

The surge in demand from Southeast Asia, partly driven by tariff-related cargo diversions, has stretched feeder capacity, with carriers prioritising direct lanes over transshipment-heavy routings. For US exporters, this has meant greater scrutiny over which cargoes are accepted, adding uncertainty to already fragile trade flows.

Implications for US and European businesses

For US and European importers, these developments underline the risks of over-reliance on single-source markets, as both regulatory shifts and operational pressures can disrupt established flows. For exporters, feeder constraints and selective carrier acceptance policies may limit market access and slow supply chains out of Asia.

Diversification of sourcing, earlier booking strategies, and closer collaboration with supply chain stakeholders is essential in navigating these disruptions. With eCommerce volumes continuing to grow and Asia Pacific playing a more pivotal role, freight strategies must evolve to maintain resilience and competitiveness.

Metro gives you the visibility, agility, and expertise to adapt to shifting trade flows and capacity constraints. EMAIL managing director, Andy Smith, today to strengthen your supply chain and secure your freight movements across Asia Pacific, the US and Europe.

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Brown Marmorated Stink Bug Season 2025

Sep 3, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB) is an agricultural pest native to China, Japan and the Korean peninsula. Each year, Australia and New Zealand enforce strict controls from 1 September through 30 April to prevent the introduction of this invasive pest through international trade.

Accidentally introduced into the United States twenty years ago, the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB) is also established in South America and Europe and remains a significant biosecurity threat to Australia and New Zealand.

Non-compliance with BMSB regulations can lead to severe delays, additional costs, or even re-exportation of the shipment. To avoid these complications, importers are strongly encouraged to complete BMSB treatments offshore before the goods arrive in Australia or New Zealand. Accurate and early documentation, including treatment certificates, is essential for expediting inspections and clearing shipments.

New for 2025/26

– Emerging Risk Countries: The UK has been added as an emerging risk country, alongside the Republic of Korea and Japan. These countries will be subject to heightened surveillance and random inspections.

– Airfreight Inspections: High-risk goods arriving as airfreight from the United States and China will now be subject to random inspections.

– New Treatment Option: Ethyl Formate has been introduced as an additional offshore fumigation treatment option alongside existing treatments like sulfuryl fluoride and methyl bromide.

– Updated In-Transit and Rolled Policy: A new application process allows for onshore re-treatment approval under specified conditions, providing options for shipments under review or treatment provider suspension.

Risk Countries and Target Goods

The seasonal measures apply to targeted goods manufactured in or shipped from designated risk countries, including 38 core countries and the new emerging risk countries listed above. The measures focus on:

  • Vehicles, machinery parts, tyres, wood articles, and other high-risk goods.
  • Breakbulk, open top, and flat rack containers require strict offshore treatment.
  • Containerised cargo may be treated offshore or onshore without deconsolidation.
  • LCL cargoes are managed at the container level with offshore treatment strongly recommended.
  • Goods in fully sealed containers loaded and sealed before 1 September may be exempt.

Compliance Recommendations

  • Arrange offshore fumigation treatment early wherever possible, as onshore capacity is limited and delays may occur.
  • Ensure cargo packaging permits effective fumigation or heat treatment penetration.
  • Regulations do not apply to packaging materials like cardboard or pallets.
  • Use DAFF-approved treatment providers and maintain required certification documentation.

Metro’s Support Through Preparedness

Metro’s CEO and Managing Director recently undertook visits to partners and clients in Australia, reinforcing their commitment to ensuring all stakeholders are fully aligned and well-prepared for the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB) season. 

By working closely with treatment providers and quarantine authorities, Metro has strengthened its capability to meet the strict biosecurity standards demanded. The company has also established dedicated staging and treatment facilities, to minimise potential disruptions.

These facilities are sterilised to meet quarantine and inspection standards, such as those set by the Australian Quarantine and Inspection Service (AQIS), providing a controlled environment for the inspection, cleaning, and fumigation of high-risk cargo.

By ensuring that cargo is treated and transported within a sterile environment, it bypasses quarantine checks upon arrival and moves directly to the destination staging facility for unloading and further distribution, thus streamlining the delivery process and meeting BMSB compliance standards.

Metro remains dedicated to simplifying this complex biosecurity landscape, enabling customers to ship with confidence during the 2025/26 BMSB season.

Visit the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry web site for details of their seasonal measures

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