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Airfreight Cools; Growth Still Building

Oct 14, 2025 | , , , , , ,

Even though air cargo is easing back after a brisk summer, global tonnages rose in the third quarter, with eCommerce redrawing lanes and hub dynamics, while UK airport expansions point to a more connected decade ahead.

Worldwide air cargo tonnages were up 4% YoY in Q3 2025 and while average spot prices were down 3% over the same period, it signals a market that’s cooling from 2024’s highs rather than falling. 

IATA’s cargo data reinforces this picture: CTKs, a key measure of air-freight volume, rose over 5% in July and 4% in August, indicating capacity is expanding but broadly in line with demand.

Analysts continue to forecast demand growth of 3 to 4% for 2025, noting that while September momentum moderated after a surprisingly strong summer it is evidence of stabilisation rather than slump. 

The biggest structural change is in cross-border eCommerce, with operators pivoting to high frequency, later cut-off and belly-hold connectivity over traditional bulk consolidations. 

While tariff hikes and the end of de minimis exemptions have softened traffic flows from China and Hong Kong to the USA, trade-lanes from China and Hong Kong into Europe have gained share, with European hubs absorbing tech, parts, components and small-package uplifts.

Primary winners include:

  • Liege where July and August cargo figures are up 14% and 29% YoY, with YTD volumes up 13% at almost 850,000 tonnes.
  • East Midlands handled 375,000 tonnes of freight in 2024/25 and has flagged surging express volumes tied to export growth. 
  • Leipzig/Halle processes around 2,000 tonnes per night for Europe-wide next-day delivery, underlining its position as Europe’s eCommerce workhorse. 
  • Cologne/Bonn handles 850,000 tonnes annually, with envious wide-body links, including the addition of India–Europe capacity this year. 

More UK lift on the way

  • Gatwick second runway approved, with reports suggesting operations by 2029. With almost two-thirds of UK air cargo moving in passenger belly-hold, air cargo tonnage could double. 
  • East Midlands continues to invest around its all-cargo ecosystem and free-port, positioning. 
  • Heathrow is already the UK’s most important port by value and approval for a 3rd runway will enhance its role as a global hub for imports and provide unparalleled access for British businesses to international markets.

Capacity Challenges Still Remain

About 4m tonnes of eCommerce was carried by air last year and that will be exceeded in 2025, yet new capacity cannot be added fast enough, with Boeing and Airbus unable to deliver the numbers needed. The result is a squeezed market, with carriers competing for capacity and aircraft flying harder. 

On Asia–Europe, 2023 saw 1.2× more lift east-to-west and yields 1.6× higher than the return; in early 2025, the yield gap widened to 2.6×. Similar imbalances appear on transpacific lanes, creating quasi one-way flows that force changes to freighter scheduling, network design and even fleet choices. In short, eCommerce is growing faster than airframes can, and the economics are shifting with it.

Outlook

Air freight is adapting to a new environment, with softer rates, steady volumes steady and ascendant eCommerce. With European hubs thriving and the UK set to add runway and cargo capability, the sector’s medium-term outlook is positive, but shippers need to stay agile to see the benefits. 

Metro gives you the visibility, agility, and expertise to adapt to shifting trade flows and capacity constraints. 

EMAIL managing director, Andy Smith, to learn how we can strengthen your supply chain by actively managing capacity, optimising routings, and leveraging trusted carrier partnerships.

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Brands Adapt to a New US Trade Reality

Sep 30, 2025 | , , ,

UK fashion brands and retailers have long viewed the United States as the ultimate growth market, drawn by its scale, spending power, and trendsetting influence. But new trade policies and tariff changes mean that succeeding in America now demands more resilience and strategic agility than ever before.

As the US has scrapped the “de minimis” rule, which had allowed shipments under $800 to enter duty-free and ramped up tariffs, UK brands are rethinking every stage of their entry strategies. Once reliant on seamless, low-cost access for direct-to-consumer and test shipments, brands now face extra duty, customs checks, shipping expense, and more paperwork, even on small parcels.

For many, rising costs and increased bureaucracy threaten profitability and expansion plans just as competition and consumer expectations intensify.

Turning Challenge into Opportunity

While some UK retailers have pressed pause on ambitious US store launches, pivoting towards digital channels or wholesale collaborations to maintain a presence with lower risk, others have doubled down, unveiling shops in key metros and converting retail units to local fulfilment spaces. Robust consumer demand, particularly for womenswear and occasion-wear is encouraging brands to keep investing, yet the focus for autumn/winter 2025 is on smarter pricing and operational transparency.

Many are adopting “all-inclusive” US pricing, building duties and shipping into up-front costs and clearly communicating this to customers. This not only preserves brand trust but also softens the sting of retail price hikes, which are often in the range of 20–30%, to reflect tariff increases and core logistics expenses. According to executives quoted in industry analysis, US shoppers, and especially women seeking high-value items, remain willing to spend if pricing is transparent and the overall brand proposition remains strong.

Managing Tariff and Sourcing Risks

Tariff structures have become more complex and increasingly volatile, with rates ranging from 10% for UK-origin apparel to as high as 50% for goods sourced from countries such as India, now impacted by additional duties in retaliation for trade decisions. The end of de minimis has further complicated direct-to-consumer logistics, requiring every incoming parcel to undergo duty assessment and customs clearance. Many brands have responded by broadening sourcing strategies, seeking to insulate themselves from abrupt tariff escalation or disruptions in high-risk producer nations.

Retailers also report stepping up risk management by diversifying suppliers, even at the cost of short-term speed or margin. Some brands, for instance, have paused or revised launches tied to affected regions, while others are maintaining close scrutiny of the US policy environment before committing to major investments.

Metro: Delivering Fashion Logistics Advantage

Succeeding in this new environment requires supply chain partners with deep expertise and agile solutions. Metro stands out for its long track record of delivering fashion logistics, combining global knowledge with hands-on operational support in the UK and United states.

Metro’s dedicated retail platform offers end-to-end supply chain visibility, specialist fulfilment services, and responsive support that fashion brands trust. From managing in-store launches and pop-ups to supporting direct-to-consumer deliveries and optimising last-mile logistics, Metro’s technology empowers brands to control costs, navigate customs changes, and keep products moving in sync with shifting sales cycles.

This level of insight and flexibility is essential as the “golden quarter” peak season approaches. Metro’s experience and local support help brands stay ahead of regulatory changes, respond to market trends, and build lasting competitive advantage.

Though the US trade landscape now presents more complexity and risk, it remains a vital growth market for fashion brands committed to meeting high consumer expectations and navigating tariff headwinds.

Businesses that benefit from Metro’s resilient, intelligent supply chain solutions will be best placed to weather uncertainty, prosper and grow in the evolving American marketplace.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, today to explore how we can support your success in the United States.

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US Targets Tariff Evasion

Sep 30, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The White House has launched a revitalised Trade Fraud Task Force to clamp down on tariff evasion and customs violations. This coordinated cross-agency initiative is set to bring sharper enforcement tools and greater scrutiny to a trading environment already complicated by regulatory uncertainty and shifting tariffs.

The new Task Force brings together agents and specialists from Customs and Border Protection (CBP), DOJ, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), with the explicit aim to aggressively pursue importers and affiliates who attempt to evade tariffs, duties, and import restrictions.

Exporters, as well as importers, should note that enforcement now targets not only mis-declaration of country of origin and tariff classification but also complex global fulfilment models and transhipment tactics commonly used to optimise duty payments.

Recent enforcement cases have involved importers penalised for inaccurately reporting the origin of goods or misrepresenting tariff categories, with multimillion-dollar fines levied under the False Claims Act.

As these measures ramp up, UK exporters must be prepared to demonstrate robust compliance processes, maintain meticulous records, and ensure transparency in customs documentation.

Civil and Criminal Measures

The launch builds on recent DOJ activity, where multiple settlements involving trade fraud have been reached since President Trump returned to office.

Recent cases include both failure to declare correct country of origin and deliberate misrepresentation of goods, with penalties reaching into the millions. The False Claims Act, traditionally used for government contractor and healthcare fraud, is now increasingly deployed to investigate and penalise customs violations, expanding the law’s scope within the trade sector.

A major element of this strategy is the expansion of whistleblower programmes, rewarding those who provide actionable leads on tariff, customs, and trade fraud. The DOJ has made clear that it intends to continue scaling these enforcement efforts and leverage whistleblower-driven intelligence to bolster the detection and prosecution of evasion schemes.

Uncertainty for Importers

Importers face growing compliance pressure as a direct consequence of these changes. The rapid rollout of enforcement comes as legal battles rage over tariff legitimacy and definitions, compounded by lingering ambiguity on what constitutes transshipment or qualifying country-of-origin. Shifting tariff rates by trading partner and category further complicates import cost management and supply chain transparency.

Companies manufacturing overseas, utilising complex fulfilment or multi-country storage, and those unfamiliar with recent regulatory changes risk exposure to sanctions and penalties.

With Customs and Border Protection continuing to flag difficulties in identifying and assessing duty on goods moved through indirect or deceptive routes, the new Task Force signals a more determined and well-resourced effort to close these enforcement gaps.

Takeaways for Global Traders

For businesses engaged in cross-border trade with the US, renewed vigilance is now essential. Meticulous record-keeping, robust compliance audits, and transparent reporting are key steps to minimise risk under the heightened enforcement regime.

As the Task Force expands its remit to cover a broad array of customs and tariff breaches, organisations must prepare to meet more demanding legal standards and guard against evolving investigation tactics.

In this fast-changing regulatory climate, proactive compliance and expert guidance offer the best defence, and securing a competitive foothold in US markets means staying one step ahead of enforcement trends.

For Metro clients, this trend creates new challenges in export planning and risk management. Those sending goods to the US must ensure their paperwork, origin declarations, and valuation methods strictly align with current customs codes.

Metro’s sector experience enables British exporters and US importers to navigate these requirements with confidence and reduce exposure to unexpected penalties.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, today to explore how we can support regulatory compliance and success in the United States.

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Growth Sustained, But Reliability and Policy Risks Loom for Air Freight

Sep 17, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Air cargo volumes surprised on the upside again in August, rising by around 5% year on year, the second consecutive month of growth at this pace. Capacity also increased by 4%, though yields came under pressure as rates softened.

Despite the stronger demand, the outlook for Asia–Europe and Asia–US markets in particular remains uncertain, with policy changes and operational constraints threatening to erode recent gains.

Average spot rates from Southeast Asia to North America and Europe declined by around 20% compared with last year, reflecting easing capacity pressure, while North East Asia to North America fell by just 8%. Rates on North East Asia–Europe routes were broadly stable year on year, though down slightly month on month. Transatlantic markets saw rates edge up by 5% annually, but momentum slowed as the summer holiday period cut into demand.

These shifts underline the fragility of recovery. Purchasing Managers’ indices in key exporting economies fell again in August, and American consumer sentiment softened. Growth on Asia–Europe and Asia–US trades has been sustained largely by front-loading and tariff avoidance, rather than stronger consumption.

Regulatory pressures and cost dynamics

The removal of the de minimis exemption for low-value shipments entering the US at the end of August is reshaping flows. While originally targeted at Chinese eCommerce, the new rules apply across all origins. For European and Asian exporters, this adds new administrative steps and costs, particularly for SMEs. Observers expect lower eCommerce volumes into the US, with some share shifting back towards China due to lower production costs.

Average spot rates across global markets fell by about 3% year on year in August, with sharper declines once currency depreciation is factored in. Capacity expansion has kept pressure on yields, even as jet fuel costs dropped by 7% year on year, providing some relief to carriers. The balance between steady demand and competitive pricing remains delicate, with the sustainability of current growth dependent on careful capacity management.

Reliability challenges deepen

Operational reliability has become a significant concern. On-time performance among major carriers slipped from 81% in May to 80% in June, and down again to 77% in July. For context, anything below 90% is considered mediocre, and mid-70s is cause for concern. Among the 22 airlines surveyed, the gap was wide, with punctuality as low as 57%, to a high of 94%.

For shippers, this can translates into missed connections, additional storage costs, and strained deadlines. Contributing factors include congested airports, ground-handling labour shortages, outdated facilities, and limited data integration across the air cargo chain. Without structural improvements, reliability risks may become systemic, undermining the demand growth achieved in recent months.

Outlook

The near-term outlook for air freight is mixed, with improving but weak economic fundamentals and policy changes that add friction. Key routes from Asia to Europe and the US continue to anchor growth, yet they are the lanes under constant pressure from regulatory shifts and declining schedule reliability. Unless carriers can address operational shortcomings and adjust capacity effectively, current momentum may prove short-lived.

Demand is shifting and schedule reliability is a moving target, but Metro continues to secure space and certainty by actively managing capacity, optimising routings, and leveraging trusted carrier partnerships.

On our MVT platform, real-time flight telemetry provides:
– Live aircraft position and route mapping
– Accurate departure/arrival confirmations
– Time-stamped milestones updated in real time
Plan with confidence, optimise inventory, and protect deadlines, even as conditions change.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to learn how our data-driven air freight keeps your supply chain moving.

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