H1 2025: Six Developments Reshaping Global Trade

H1 2025: Six Developments Reshaping Global Trade

Aug 19, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The first half of 2025 has been one of the most turbulent periods for supply chains in recent memory. From renewed tariff wars to fresh geopolitical flashpoints, logistics professionals have had to contend with a constantly shifting landscape.

At the same time, structural challenges around skills, safety, and sustainability have continued to grow. Here we review six developments that defined H1 2025.

1. Tariffs return to the fore
The pause in US tariff escalation ended in August, with the White House reintroducing “reciprocal” tariffs that apply baseline duties of 10% to all countries and higher rates of 10–41% depending on origin. The UK sit at the low end, while Syria faces the steepest levels. Brazil has been singled out further, hit by an additional 40% levy. Canada also saw tariffs raised from 25% to 35% on certain goods, justified by Washington’s claim that Ottawa has not done enough to curb fentanyl flows.

The executive order applies from 7 August 2025, with a grace period allowing cargo already loaded onto vessels before that date to arrive until 5 October 2025. To add complexity, US Customs will also impose new fees on Chinese-built or operated vessels from 14 October, potentially forcing alliances such as the Ocean Alliance into costly fleet reshuffles. Carriers are already working through how to redeploy capacity to avoid penalties, with COSCO and OOCL particularly exposed.

2. New shipping alliances reshape networks
The recomposition of global shipping alliances in Q1 has reshaped carrier strategies. The launch of the Gemini Cooperation between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd marked one of the most significant realignments in recent years, focused on achieving 90%+ schedule reliability. Shippers are already seeing more dependable services, but questions remain about whether premium pricing will follow.

Other alliances, particularly Ocean and THE Alliance (now Premier Alliance), are recalibrating networks, with competition sharpening across Asia–Europe and transpacific trades. For shippers, the alliance changes mean rethinking service contracts and adapting to new network structures that could endure for much of the decade.

3. Houthi attacks deepen Red Sea crisis
The Red Sea crisis, triggered by Houthi rebel attacks, has now stretched on for nearly two years. In July 2025 the threat escalated further with the sinking of the Magic Seas, a Greek-operated vessel targeted for its links to companies calling at Israeli ports. Analysis suggests that one in six vessels globally could now be considered threatened under the Houthis’ broad definition of violators.

For container lines, this effectively rules out a return to Suez Canal routings before 2026 — and possibly not until 2027. Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds up to two weeks to Asia–Europe journeys, pushing up costs and insurance premiums, and putting additional strain on fleet capacity. The Red Sea instability has been a reminder of how localised conflicts can have global consequences for supply chains.

4. Logistics skills shortages persist
The UK continues to face a significant shortfall in logistics skills, with the Road Haulage Association estimating a deficit of around 50,000 HGV drivers. The ONS also reports 6,000 fewer courier and delivery drivers than the previous year. With 55% of HGV drivers aged between 50 and 65, the demographic imbalance remains a long-term concern.

Factors include reduced access to EU workers post-Brexit, poor industry perception, and limited uptake of government training schemes. Although the crisis is not as acute as during the height of the pandemic, the ageing workforce and lack of young entrants mean structural shortages will continue. Rising wage costs, recruitment struggles, and bottlenecks in road transport all add to the burden on UK supply chains.

5. EV shipping challenges raise alarm
The growth of electric vehicle (EV) trade has created new safety risks at sea. Several high-profile fires on car carriers have been linked to lithium-ion batteries, sparking concern among insurers, regulators, and shipowners. Insurers are pushing for tougher loading protocols, enhanced crew training, and more advanced fire suppression systems.

For supply chains, this adds cost and complexity to automotive logistics, with carriers facing higher insurance premiums and the need to retrofit vessels. It is also slowing the momentum of EV exports, just as demand for cleaner vehicles accelerates globally.

6. Sustainability regulations tighten
Sustainability regulation is reshaping procurement strategies. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is beginning to impact trade in carbon-intensive products such as steel, aluminium, and cement, with importers required to report embedded emissions.

At the same time, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is moving toward a tipping point. UK and EU mandates are pushing airlines to integrate SAF into their fuel mix, with new investments underway to scale production.

While tariffs and geopolitics grab headlines, sustainability is quietly becoming a decisive factor in supplier choice, cost structures, and long-term resilience planning. For many organisations, compliance with emissions and ESG frameworks is no longer optional but critical.

Outlook
H1 2025 has exposed the vulnerability of supply chains to political shocks, armed conflict, safety risks, and structural labour shortages. Tariffs, alliances, and attacks have disrupted networks, while long-term challenges around sustainability and skills remain unresolved.

The message for supply chain leaders is clear: resilience, agility, and visibility will be critical in the second half of 2025, as disruption becomes the new normal.

H1 2025 has underlined how vulnerable global supply chains have become and staying ahead demands visibility, expertise, and a trusted partner by your side.

Metro’s account management team works proactively with customers to anticipate risks, share insights, and design solutions that are resilient and adaptable to change.

Our expertise encompasses dangerous goods and lithium battery shipping, customs, and multimodal freight, backed by a strong people strategy that includes apprenticeships, engagement programmes, and our Great Place to Work certification.

We are also leading the way on sustainability. Metro has been carbon neutral for five years, pioneering the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), while our MVT ECO platform helps businesses forecast, measure, and offset emissions across their global supply chains.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to learn how Metro can build resilience into your supply chain.

Front‑Loading and Hidden Inventory Disrupt Traditional Peak Season

Front‑Loading and Hidden Inventory Disrupt Traditional Peak Season

Aug 5, 2025 | ,

The traditional second‑half transpacific cargo peak is unlikely to materialise this year as a wave of accelerated shipments in the first half of 2025 has drained demand from the later months, while significant volumes of hidden inventory remain stalled in supply chains.

In the first half of 2025, shippers brought forward large volumes of cargo in anticipation of increasing tariffs later in the year. This front‑loading intensified in May and June, particularly on Asia–US West Coast and East Coast routes. By July and August, the usual third‑quarter build‑up failed to materialise, with demand easing as warehouses filled with earlier‑delivered stock. Through August and September, significant volumes remained stored in bonded facilities and regional hubs across the US, delaying their movement into end‑markets.

US importers are taking a cautious stance, with many shifting to calling-off or ordering only what is immediately required, adopting a “wait‑and‑see” approach in response to ongoing uncertainty over the US economic outlook and potential trade policy shifts.

Hidden Inventory Dampens Air Cargo Flow
The holding back of cargo is affecting airfreight patterns. Instead of moving directly to consignees, goods are being held at warehouses, hubs and terminals throughout the supply chain, often without showing on anyone’s dashboard. This “hidden inventory” keeps spot demand artificially subdued while preventing a normal seasonal rate drop.

As a result, air cargo rates may remain supported and despite signs of a cooling demand environment. Market turnover is slowed, with more tariff turmoil pushing the impact of inventory release further into the year.

With peak volumes shifted earlier in the year, the traditional seasonal curve has flattened, making weaker‑than‑usual cargo surges likely in the third and fourth quarters. This shift creates capacity planning challenges for carriers that had anticipated a late‑summer rush, potentially leading to under‑utilised sailings or the need to adjust service rotations. At the same time, US importers are taking a cautious approach, placing smaller and more frequent orders while deferring larger commitments until there is greater certainty over the economic outlook and future trade policy.

Until the hidden stock is released and importers regain confidence, the transpacific market is unlikely to see the kind of seasonal uplift typical in past years. Both ocean and air freight providers may need to adapt to a longer‑than‑expected period of muted demand through the remainder of 2025.

Metro’s dedicated air freight team and expanding U.S. presence help shippers navigate shifting transpacific flows with confidence. From capacity management and efficient routing to agile supply chain control and inventory visibility, we keep your air cargo moving smoothly across the Pacific.

Email Managing Director, Andy Smith, to learn more.

Transatlantic Air Cargo: Calm Surface, Hidden Currents

Transatlantic Air Cargo: Calm Surface, Hidden Currents

Jul 22, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The transatlantic air cargo market may appear steady, with stable capacity and rates, but beneath this surface calm, subtle shifts are reshaping flows, costs, and opportunities, especially on niche routes like Canada–Europe and Mexico–Europe.

While wide-body and freighter capacity from Europe to North America has edged up around 2% so far this year, the opposite direction has slipped by about 1%. Recent months, however, reveal sharp month-on-month jumps, with capacity from Canada to Europe up 14%, and Europe to Canada up 16%. Airlines like Air Canada and Air France-KLM have expanded significantly, while others have held or slightly reduced services.

The capacity surge on Canada–Europe routes coincides with the summer holiday season, boosting passenger belly-hold space. But freight data points to something more: flown tonnages from Europe to Canada jumped around 10% in early July compared with the previous three weeks, though without a corresponding rise in average rates…yet.

On the pricing front, the top end of spot rates between Canada and the UK nearly doubled at the end of June, while France–Canada rates also climbed sharply. Strengthening UK–Canada trade ties, including the UK’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), are likely adding further momentum, potentially lifting logistics demand across both ocean and air freight.

Elsewhere, European exporters have seen steady or rising air cargo flows to North America:

– Italy has boosted air exports to the US by over one-third, focusing on fashion goods.
– France has lifted exports by nearly half, driven by luxury and pharmaceuticals.
– Norway fish exports to the US have surged over 50%.
– Ireland, concerned about possible US tariffs on pharmaceuticals, has seen air rates to the US climb since May, with sharper increases in July.

Softening Signs, But Cautious Optimism
Overall, transatlantic rates have eased with the arrival of summer and additional belly capacity, particularly on mainline Europe–US routes. Expect stable or slightly reduced spot pricing, typical for this seasonal slack period. However, some airlines are expressing optimism for the second half, buoyed by promising early signals from peak season negotiations.

A delayed US tariff deadline (now 1 August) and new trade measures affecting partners like Japan and South Korea could prompt a short-term wave of airfreight “front-loading.” Longer-term, shifting freighter capacity from Pacific routes toward the transatlantic may rebalance the market, while the removal of US de minimis import exemptions will reshape eCommerce flows into the US.

While today’s transatlantic air cargo market may seem subdued, pockets of demand and policy uncertainty are quietly stirring the waters. Shippers need to be agile to capture emerging opportunities and be prepared for the unexpected.

Metro’s dedicated air freight team and expanding U.S. presence help shippers navigate shifting transatlantic flows with confidence. From capacity management and multimodal routing, to agile supply chain management and inventory visibility, we keep your air cargo moving smoothly — across the Atlantic and around the world. EMAIL our Managing Director, Andy Smith, to learn more.

Preparing for Air Cargo Peak Season Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Preparing for Air Cargo Peak Season Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Jul 9, 2025 | , , , , , , ,

Air freight markets are entering the second half of 2025 in a state of volatility, as early signs of peak season demand clash with consumer caution and a shifting tariff landscape.

Despite President Trump suggesting that the next round of US tariffs may not take effect until August, the legal reality is firmer: the executive order issued on 9 April mandates that reciprocal tariffs will be enforced from 12:01 am EDT on 9 July, unless a further Executive Order is made. This deadline is already influencing behaviour across key trade routes and sectors, with shippers attempting to front-load freight and adjust their sourcing strategies.

As expected, June saw a seasonal lull across many air freight corridors. Rates out of Hong Kong to both Europe and North America softened slightly month-on-month, falling by low single digits, while year-on-year declines were sharper to North America, reflecting weaker consumer demand and reduced eCommerce.

The removal of de minimis exemptions combined with the imposition of tariffs on many goods, has triggered a pronounced shift in flows: air cargo volumes from China to the US have fallen around 15% since March, while rates have dropped by more than 15% over the same period. In contrast, tonnage from China to Europe is up 15% year-on-year, supported by stable rates and reallocated capacity.

Transatlantic lanes also reflect the summer dynamic. With increased belly-hold capacity from passenger flights, rates between Europe and North America dipped slightly in June. However, spot freight prices on both directions of the transatlantic remain higher than a year ago, suggesting underlying resilience.

Spot Market Dominance and Capacity Volatility
One of the most significant developments this quarter has been the dramatic shift toward the spot market on Asia Pacific–US lanes. By June, more than 70% of general cargo bookings on these routes were made on spot terms, up from around 50% in the same period last year. This trend reflects carrier uncertainty, volatile demand, and diverging expectations around tariff timing and impact.

For comparison, spot market activity on Asia-Europe lanes has remained relatively stable, with roughly 47% of cargo moving under short-term rates. The growing disparity between contract and spot pricing points to the challenges of forecasting capacity needs in politically sensitive markets.

Peak Season Prospects: Uncertainty Over Tradition
Traditionally, air freight demand accelerates from mid-August as retailers ramp up inventory for back-to-school, autumn sales, and the holiday period. However, the current market is anything but traditional. Consumer confidence remains fragile due to rising living costs and trade friction, with the largest shippers increasingly hesitant to commit to long-term air freight contracts.

Global air cargo volumes rose by just 1% year-on-year in June, with capacity growth outpacing demand for the first time in over 18 months. This imbalance is likely to pressure rates across many lanes, even as jet fuel prices spike and geopolitical risks persist.

While some Southeast Asia–US routes saw modest rate gains in June, buoyed by pre-tariff demand and capacity rebalancing, overall expectations for Q3 remain muted. Analysts warn that weaker consumer spending and ongoing tariff complications could limit any meaningful peak season surge, especially on transpacific routes.

Outlook 
Despite the structural pressures, there are opportunities for shippers in the current environment. Short-term rates are more flexible, capacity is more available than in past peak seasons, and carriers are actively repositioning services to match evolving demand patterns.

The real wildcard remains US trade policy. Without a new executive order, 9 July marks the start of a new tariff chapter that will ripple across global supply chains, just as the air freight industry typically gears up for its busiest season.

Now is the time to plan ahead.
With more flexible short-term rates, improved capacity availability, and carriers adapting to demand shifts, shippers have a unique window to secure cost-effective and reliable air freight solutions before peak season pressure builds.

EMAIL our managing director, Andrew Smith today to assess your options and take advantage of current market conditions.

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