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Asia Air and Ocean Rates Edge Higher — For Now

Oct 29, 2025 | ,

After months of volatility and gradual rate decline, airfreight rates on key Asia–Europe and trans-Pacific lanes are climbing as capacity tightens ahead of a softer-than-usual peak season, while ocean carriers are seeing container spot rates rebound for a second consecutive week thanks to blank sailings and new general rate increases (GRIs).

Although the recovery is uneven, the long-running rate slide has paused, with carriers regaining short-term leverage and shippers facing a more cautious pricing environment. For importers in the US and UK, the message is clear: after months of relative calm, both air and sea markets are entering a phase of firmer pricing, with time-sensitive shippers under growing pressure to book early or lock in space as Q4 unfolds.

Airfreight: Rates Rising Despite a Muted Peak

Airfreight from Asia to Europe and the US is once again trending upward. Average spot rates from key Chinese gateways to Europe rose by more than 13% over the past two weeks, as exporters and forwarders competed for available space.

Despite the uptick, industry forecasts point to a “peak-less” Q4, with no major surge. For now, rates are rising gradually rather than sharply, with seasonal demand keeping the market balanced rather than overheated.

Time-sensitive shipments should be booked early to secure space and mitigate cost spikes. Those with flexible lead times can expect modestly higher pricing but less risk of severe congestion compared with previous years.

Ocean Freight: Carriers Regain Leverage as Rates Rebound

On the ocean side, spot container rates from Asia to Europe and North America have recorded their second consecutive weekly increase, driven by a wave of blanked sailings and mid-month GRIs. Analysts have tracked 93 cancelled voyages in October, as carriers pulled capacity to halt a 17-week rate slide earlier in the year.

The moves seem to have succeeded in stabilising pricing and restoring some balance to supply and demand. However, with the 2026 contract season approaching, shippers should expect more assertive carrier tactics, including the use of temporary GRIs and peak season surcharges to strengthen negotiating positions ahead of annual rate renewals.

Short-Term Outlook: A Firmer but Fragmented Market

  • Book early, particularly for premium cargo. Both air and sea carriers are tightening availability, and last-minute bookings may face higher costs or restricted options.
  • Expect rate volatility rather than steep increases. Demand is improving but not spiking, suggesting moderate and temporary rate rises through year-end.
  • Contract carefully. US and UK importers negotiating 2026 contracts should balance the current uptick in rates against the likelihood of stabilisation by Q1 next year.
  • Monitor capacity and scheduling. Blanked sailings, port disruptions and reduced belly capacity will remain the key short-term risk factors.

Metro’s market specialists continuously monitor rate movements, carrier capacity and contract trends across Asia–Europe and trans-Pacific trade lanes.

If you’re reviewing 2026 contracts, weighing modal choices or facing urgent uplift challenges, our team can help you secure competitive pricing and reliable space.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director to discuss short-term options and long-term strategies for your Asia supply chain

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One Minute Late, Thousands Lost: U.S. Customs Tightens Enforcement Across All Modes

Oct 22, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

In U.S. trade compliance, even a one-minute delay can be costly. Recent cases show importers and logistics partners facing thousands of dollars in penalties simply because mandatory filings were completed moments after official cut-off times.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has stepped up automated monitoring across all major modes. For ocean freight, the Importer Security Filing (ISF-10) and manifest submissions must be lodged 24 hours before vessel loading. In airfreight, the Air Cargo Advance Screening (ACAS) system requires pre-departure data to be transmitted electronically before goods leave origin. And for trucking, particularly on north- and south-bound cross-border movements, the ACE eManifest must be filed at least one hour before arrival at the border. In all cases, late filings, even by seconds can trigger massive penalties or cargo holds.

The increased use of digital systems means there is now almost zero tolerance for timing errors. CBP’s automated compliance tools record submission times to the second, leaving little room for discretion or appeal.

This sharper focus on procedural precision comes amid a wider enforcement drive targeting customs fraud. In a separate case this month, two executives at a Los Angeles-based wholesale clothing importer were jailed and their company hit with a multi-million dollar fine for systematically under-valuing goods to reduce duties.

The message is clear: whether it’s filing times or declared values, compliance margins have all but disappeared.  To avoid finding yourself on the wrong side of a deadline lapse, it is critical that risks are mitigated:

  • Integrate automated alerts in your customs-filing systems so you’re aware of lead-time requirements well in advance.
  • Build a buffer into your internal processes: treat the submission cutoff as real time, and build in a buffer to allow for any delay.
  • Ensure your documentation and data (B/L numbers, consignee information, classification) are final and entered before the time cut-off — incomplete entries are a common cause of last-minute corrections and delay.

The Critical Take-Away

For businesses based in the UK or EU working with U.S. supply chains, this is a reminder that compliance deadlines are not just internal housekeeping, they carry real cost. When operational bottlenecks or last-minute changes push a filing even seconds late, the financial consequences can be large. Work closely with your U.S. customers and brokers to ensure that your entry process is streamlined, accurately filed and firmly upstream of any bottleneck.

Metro’s U.S. brokerage teams combine deep CBP compliance expertise with our advanced CuDoS customs automation platform, ensuring every declaration meets filing deadlines accurately and on time. EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to learn how our integrated systems and on-the-ground U.S. presence can help safeguard your business and keep your supply chain fully compliant.

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Airfreight Cools; Growth Still Building

Oct 14, 2025 | , , , , , ,

Even though air cargo is easing back after a brisk summer, global tonnages rose in the third quarter, with eCommerce redrawing lanes and hub dynamics, while UK airport expansions point to a more connected decade ahead.

Worldwide air cargo tonnages were up 4% YoY in Q3 2025 and while average spot prices were down 3% over the same period, it signals a market that’s cooling from 2024’s highs rather than falling. 

IATA’s cargo data reinforces this picture: CTKs, a key measure of air-freight volume, rose over 5% in July and 4% in August, indicating capacity is expanding but broadly in line with demand.

Analysts continue to forecast demand growth of 3 to 4% for 2025, noting that while September momentum moderated after a surprisingly strong summer it is evidence of stabilisation rather than slump. 

The biggest structural change is in cross-border eCommerce, with operators pivoting to high frequency, later cut-off and belly-hold connectivity over traditional bulk consolidations. 

While tariff hikes and the end of de minimis exemptions have softened traffic flows from China and Hong Kong to the USA, trade-lanes from China and Hong Kong into Europe have gained share, with European hubs absorbing tech, parts, components and small-package uplifts.

Primary winners include:

  • Liege where July and August cargo figures are up 14% and 29% YoY, with YTD volumes up 13% at almost 850,000 tonnes.
  • East Midlands handled 375,000 tonnes of freight in 2024/25 and has flagged surging express volumes tied to export growth. 
  • Leipzig/Halle processes around 2,000 tonnes per night for Europe-wide next-day delivery, underlining its position as Europe’s eCommerce workhorse. 
  • Cologne/Bonn handles 850,000 tonnes annually, with envious wide-body links, including the addition of India–Europe capacity this year. 

More UK lift on the way

  • Gatwick second runway approved, with reports suggesting operations by 2029. With almost two-thirds of UK air cargo moving in passenger belly-hold, air cargo tonnage could double. 
  • East Midlands continues to invest around its all-cargo ecosystem and free-port, positioning. 
  • Heathrow is already the UK’s most important port by value and approval for a 3rd runway will enhance its role as a global hub for imports and provide unparalleled access for British businesses to international markets.

Capacity Challenges Still Remain

About 4m tonnes of eCommerce was carried by air last year and that will be exceeded in 2025, yet new capacity cannot be added fast enough, with Boeing and Airbus unable to deliver the numbers needed. The result is a squeezed market, with carriers competing for capacity and aircraft flying harder. 

On Asia–Europe, 2023 saw 1.2× more lift east-to-west and yields 1.6× higher than the return; in early 2025, the yield gap widened to 2.6×. Similar imbalances appear on transpacific lanes, creating quasi one-way flows that force changes to freighter scheduling, network design and even fleet choices. In short, eCommerce is growing faster than airframes can, and the economics are shifting with it.

Outlook

Air freight is adapting to a new environment, with softer rates, steady volumes steady and ascendant eCommerce. With European hubs thriving and the UK set to add runway and cargo capability, the sector’s medium-term outlook is positive, but shippers need to stay agile to see the benefits. 

Metro gives you the visibility, agility, and expertise to adapt to shifting trade flows and capacity constraints. 

EMAIL managing director, Andy Smith, to learn how we can strengthen your supply chain by actively managing capacity, optimising routings, and leveraging trusted carrier partnerships.

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Ex-China Airfreight: Turbulence and Transformation

Sep 30, 2025 | , , , , , , , , , , , ,

For shippers moving goods by air into Europe and the US, the peak season has arrived with a complexity not seen in recent years. As flights are cancelled and rates trend sharply upward, a fundamental reshaping of the marketplace is underway.

In September, a powerful typhoon swept through southern China just as the annual Golden Week holiday loomed. Traditionally, Golden Week brings a slowdown as manufacturing pauses and workers take leave, creating ripples in cargo flow.

This year, the typhoon compounded the crisis: hundreds of flights were suspended and key export ports shuttered, abruptly tightening airfreight supply. Airport terminals saw mounting backlogs, with some shipments delayed by nearly a week before normal operations could resume.

The squeeze led to dramatic, double-digit percentage increases in airfreight rates for shipments from China to Europe, climbing between 30% and 50% compared to average off-season levels. Routes to the United States also saw significant jumps, though the impact was mitigated by shifting demand patterns and new import restrictions in the US.

Europe Bound: A Market in Flux

While every major trade lane felt the impact of these disruptions, the China-to-Europe corridor has emerged as both the most stressed and the most resilient. Demand for space surged as volumes, particularly of high-tech and eCommerce goods, outpaced declining US-bound shipments.

This pattern reflects a broader structural change: capacity typically serving transpacific markets is now being redirected to European routes, reinforcing the upward pressure on rates.

The European Union’s relative trade stability and ongoing restocking by retailers have kept import flows buoyant. In contrast, the US market is seeing smaller volume growth and increasingly complex customs checks, which have led to sporadic diversions of supply chains to alternative gateway countries and slower overall throughput.

US Adjustments and Alternative Strategies

The US airfreight market from China, though still sizeable, has shifted course under the weight of new regulatory developments. The end of duty-free de minimis rules has decreased the viability of direct eCommerce shipments for small parcels.

As a result, shippers have begun to favour indirect strategies, routing goods through third countries to manage duties, or utilising other North American hubs to avoid new tariff thresholds.

This has prompted a measurable contraction in direct air cargo volumes to the US from China, even as some businesses attempt to hedge risk by booking additional capacity in advance for the holiday season. Leading carriers report rates holding steady or growing only modestly compared to Europe-bound lanes.

The Road (Skies) Ahead

Looking through 2025’s peak season and into the coming year, the airfreight market faces continued unpredictability. Recovery from typhoon-related disruptions is expected to be gradual, with many factories extending their Golden Week closures and logistical bottlenecks possibly persisting into mid-October.

Industry analysts project that rates on China-Europe flights are likely to rise further by up to 10% before normalising, while transpacific pricing will remain highly sensitive to evolving US trade policy and inventory cycles.

At the same time, underlying trends, such as the shift of high-value tech goods via air and the migration of eCommerce flows through alternative channels, suggest that unpredictability will remain a defining feature.

Early communication is becoming indispensable for urgent shipments. We would encourage shippers to forecast and book well in advance, providing transparent communication about possible route or schedule changes, and retain contingency plans for the likely rolling pockets of disruption.

Metro gives you the visibility, agility, and expertise to overcome turbulence and transformation, strengthening your supply chain and securing your airfreight movements from China to the US and Europe.

With demand surging and carrier schedules in flux, securing space and certainty has never been more critical. Metro is actively monitoring capacity, adjusting routings, and working with trusted carrier partners to protect booking allocations.

Our latest innovation takes visibility and control to new levels, with real-time flight telemetry tracking to provide:

– Live aircraft position and route mapping
– Accurate departure and arrival confirmation
– Time-stamped milestone events, updated in real time

This level of transparency means you can plan confidently, optimise inventory, and protect service levels even in unpredictable conditions.

Partner with Metro for smarter, faster, and more resilient air freight solutions, powered by live data and long-standing carrier relationships.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, today to explore how we can support your success.

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