HKG port

Ex-Asia spot rate spiral turned into shooting star

May 16, 2024 | , , , , , , ,

Container shipping lines have announced significant rate hikes on all ex-Asia trade lanes, due to increased demand and increasing equipment challenges in more origins and it would be prudent to expect more of the same.

Effective capacity to North Europe has decreased by 5% compared to a year ago, due to the longer route around Africa, despite the deployment of 18% more vessel capacity. 

One leading carrier has suggested that capacity shortages could be as much as 20% and while the situation is not as grim as the carrier suggests, demand growth of 15% has taken the market by surprise with container equipment and vessels in short supply. 

It is difficult to see what precipitated the steep increase in demand over the last couple of weeks, which have been remarkably strong. It may be buyers pulling orders forward because they have concerns about global geopolitical uncertainties, or they need an additional two-week buffer of stock in transit. Or rates could be driven by a more general restocking to replenish inventories.

The speed and pace of change in the market has been phenomenal, replicating the lead-up to the peak of the pandemic, with demand hugely high. Add to that the early start of the traditional peak season in May, which is now seasonalising to the pre-pandemic model and it’s a potential nightmare scenario for importers.

Carriers are putting rates out and then withdrawing them because they have already been replaced with higher levels. 

FAK and spot rate quotes for most shipping lines are now closed until June, or later, so shippers can’t make a booking even if they are willing to pay premium prices.

Demand has grown consistently over the last two quarters and while new container ship deliveries continue, the diversion around the Cape of Good Hope, strong demand and additional summer service deployments are absorbing this capacity and we expect the lines to continue raising rates into the summer.

The ocean freight market has moved beyond ‘pay to play’, with carriers cutting back on contracts, blanking vessels and not carrying space forward. Shippers may look around and try to ‘play the market’ but everyone is in the same ‘boat’.

Metro are coping relatively well, thanks to our long-standing carrier relationships and sensible annual contracts, which guarantee us space and set rates.

To learn how we can enhance your ocean freight solutions, please EMAIL our Chief Commercial Officer, Andy Smith. 

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Airfreight market continues to fly – for now

May 16, 2024 | , , , , ,

The surge in Asia to Europe ocean freight (see ‘Ex-Asia spot rate spiral turned into shooting star’) is also boosting demand for airfreight to Europe and even to North and South America.

Uncertainty and delays with ocean shipments have been encouraging more shippers to transfer to airfreight and the increased demand has prompted airlines to withdraw long-term winter and summer schedule rates in favour of offering rates on a monthly, or even shorter basis for shipments from Asia to Europe and America.

Disruption has also boosted sea/air transhipments via the Middle East and Indian sub-continent, with tonnages up 40% year on year.

Ex-India pricing is up 164% year on year and remains exceptionally high, while rates from Dubai and Colombo were up 44% and 51% respectively, year on year.

Strong demand and disruptions to container shipping in the region caused by the ‘Red Sea’ situation continue to stimulate very strong air cargo demand from the Middle East and South Asia (MESA) regions.

Reports that ocean carriers are denying bookings could potentially boost air cargo further, as shippers seek to protect supply chains.

However, retailers’ spring/summer stock is in-country, so anything coming in now is going to warehouses and stores, so there is a definite reduction in retail demand for time-critical shipments.

Other industries may continue with distressed ocean freight, but this too has definitely reduced.

So, the air freight market will soften and capacity has increased with the summer scheduling. All in all, the market is now in a healthy state, with a decent balance of supply versus demand, for the time of year.

In the short term we expect the market to soften further, with no huge product launches, stable demand and hopefully geopolitical stabilisation (albeit with a very unstable level as the starting point).

The Red Sea crisis could mean Middle Eastern airlines are well-placed to pick up any extra business via sea/air routes, with Emirates and its strategic partners harnessing their strengths to move over 11,000 tonnes.

For urgent, valuable and sensitive shipments we have a range of airfreight and sea/air solutions, with block space agreements (BSA) and capacity purchase agreements (CPA) that protect space and capacity on the busiest routes.

Regardless of your cargo type, size and requirements, we have extremely competitive rate and service combinations, to meet every deadline and budget.

EMAIL Elliot Carlile, Operations Director, for insights, prices and advice. 

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Red Sea diversions create Western Mediterranean port congestion

May 16, 2024 | , , , ,

The mass diversion of container ships away from the Red Sea since December has raised fears of congestion across west Mediterranean container ports, as carriers from Asia drop boxes destined for the eastern Mediterranean.

Instead of entering the Mediterranean Sea dead end, created by the effective closure of the Suez Canal, Ultra-large container ships from the Far East are offloading containers at western Mediterranean ports such as Barcelona, with smaller feeder vessels transporting them to final central and eastern Mediterranean destinations.

Transhipment traffic in Barcelona was up year on year by 22%, 64% and 63% in January, February and March, while Algeciras, Valencia and Las Palmas grew at 7%, 18% and 33% in Q1 2024.

And while the ports managed the first quarter’s throughput, they are operating at (or are close to) operational capacity, which means that any continuation or increase in volumes could lead to a dangerously high level of utilisation and potentially serious congestion.

Alternatives, to spread volumes out, include the Moroccan hub of Tanger Med, but its utilisation is already sitting at 83%, so even a relatively small increase in volumes could fill it up.

The southern Portuguese port of Sines has capacity to handle an additional 1.4m teu, while the ports of Malaga and Castellon may also be worthy of consideration, to avoid a potential supply chain bottleneck, with storage yard capacity drying up at ports in the western Mediterranean.

The seven-day average vessel waiting time at Barcelona increased two days due to increased cargo flow, lowered productivity, IT issues and bad weather. Shipping lines are asking customers to pick up both their import units and empty containers as early as possible, due to congested line-up and increased waiting times.

One of the two container terminals at Algeciras confirmed that their facility was “quite full” and warned that “capacity is very limited”, leading them to restrict the amount of cargo accepted, to avoid severe congestion.

There are two potentially significant negative outcomes due to the current Mediterranean situation:

First, transshipment networks require more ships for the feeder services and carriers may remove ships from other trades, particularly those in North Europe, which could create a capacity squeeze and push rates up.

Second, port congestion creates a de-facto reduction of available vessel capacity, which leads to an increase in blank sailings, because there is a schedule gap when vessels are unavailable, which squeezes capacity and pushes up rates.

If you have any questions or concerns about the issues outlined in this article, or would like to discuss any aspect of your Mediterranean supply chain, please EMAIL our Chief Commercial Officer, Andy Smith.

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Importers concerned at cost of Brexit trade checks

May 16, 2024 | , , , , , , ,

Delayed five times by the UK government, post-Brexit physical border checks of animal products, plants and plant products through the Port of Dover and Eurotunnel were finally implemented on the 30th April 2024. However, importers of affected products express concern about additional costs.

The common user charge (CUC) was also introduced on the 30th April for commercial movements of animal products, plants and plant products through the Port of Dover and Eurotunnel.

It covers imports, goods in transit and goods eligible for sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) checks at a government-run border control post.

The CUC applies to small imports of products such as plants, seeds, fish, salami, sausage, cheese and yoghurt. The flat-rate of £10 or £29 per commodity has been capped at £145, “specifically to help smaller businesses”, Defra said.

Health certificates were introduced in January on EU goods ranging from cut flowers, to fresh produce including meat, fruit and vegetables, but physical checks for the goods came into force two weeks ago.

Physical checks will be based on the “risk” category that goods fall into, so high-risk goods, such as live animals, will be subject to identity and physical checks at the border.

Products that present a medium risk to biosecurity will also be checked, while low-risk goods, such as canned meat will not require any checks.

But businesses, especially smaller companies, have raised concerns that the new checks from the EU could disrupt their supply chains and despite the £145 cap will increase their costs, with one importer interviewed by the BBC, suggesting “the checks would cost his business between £200,000 and £225,000 per year.”

Controls for SPS goods from the rest of the world are long-established and traders are aware of the responsibilities and inherent risk of goods moved from the rest of the world, but the extensions to goods moving from the EU is catching them out.

An additional CUC cost of £29 for a single commodity is minimal, but if you have four trailers carrying five or more commodities arriving every day then you easily add £200,000 plus to your supply chain.

There have been some easements with Customs, which allow fewer inspections and there are processes which can reduce costs, but preparation is key and the correct documentation is critical in ensuring a smoother frontier transition.

Metro are at the forefront of customs brokerage solutions, with our automated CuDoS declaration platform.

We can automate your CHED import notification, on the import of products, animals, food and feed system (IPAFFS) and simplify customs compliance, to safeguard your supply chain and cut costs.

To learn more about CUC or CuDoS, or how we can simplify and automate customs declarations for your business, please EMAIL Andy Fitchett, Brokerage Manager.

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