Maersk

The Gemini Cooperation

On the 17th January 2024, the 33rd day of the Red Sea crisis, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced that they were forming a new shipping alliance – The Gemini Cooperation – in a major shake-up to the container shipping market on the East-West trade lanes.

Industry analysts have been predicting that with 2M’s demise already in the works for 2025, the remaining alliances would be breaking up over the coming year and we would see a new alignment of partnerships on the east-west trade.

Hapag-Lloyd will exit THE Alliance and link up with Maersk in February 2025 after the dissolution of the 2M Alliance, to form the Gemini Cooperation’

Operating a combined fleet of 290 vessels (equivalent to 3.4 million TEUs) Gemini will cover seven global trades, including coverage of the Europe – Middle East and Indian Subcontinent trades, besides the East-West trades.

Gemini’s network will be structured around 12 ‘hub-and-spoke’ terminals in Asia, EMEA, North and South America, from which Gemini will offer 26 mainline services, with schedule reliability in excess of 90%, a level that would differentiate Gemini from other alliances.

This leaves ONE, Yang Ming and HMM in a very vulnerable position, potentially unable to build a network matching those of the Ocean Alliance, MSC and Gemini.

The pressure is then on these three carriers to either lure a new partner out from Ocean Alliance, or re-invent a new service concept.

But, with the playing field having changed so radically the pressure is also on Ocean Alliance members CMA-CGM, COSCO and Evergreen, who will be asking themselves whether the current alliance setup is still fit for purpose or whether a new partnership might be better.

Additionally, the removal of the EU anti-trust exemption by the end of April 2024 could add to the pressure on Ocean Alliance as they will be significantly larger than the other groupings, and could well become the focus for competition authorities if they have a political need to show action following the exemption removal.

While Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd will be part of the Gemini partnership for three years, after which a 12-month notice period will be required, Alliances tend to have a lifespan of roughly 5-8 years, which means the re-calibration we see now is most likely be the shape of the market on the East-West services into the early 2030s.

If you have any questions or concerns about the Gemini Cooperation, or would like to discuss the wider implications of the shipping alliances, please EMAIL our Chief Commercial Officer, Andy Smith.

RoRo PCC

Car carrier and RoRo review

The large scale shift of finished cars to container shipping, due to roll-on/roll-off (Ro/Ro) capacity restraints may be faltering as the Red Sea diversions have sent Asia-Europe spot rates surging and increased transit times by 10-14 days.  

The disruption of the container shipping option that so many manufacturers have been relying on compounds the challenge for vehicle shippers as the global Ro/Ro fleet is also being diverted from the Red Sea to sail around southern Africa (with the transit and cost increases) to avoid Houthi militant attacks.

The Houthis seized the Japanese chartered Ro/Ro carrier Galaxy Leader in mid-November, and several other vehicle transporters have subsequently been threatened with hijack and missile strikes.

While some RoRo vessels had continued to transit the Suez Canal, under escort from their navies, they have all now made the decision to avoid the Red Sea entirely until maritime security has been restored.

Container spot prices may have risen for vehicle shipments from Asia, but the rate of increases have already slowed and are likely to become more attractive in the post-CNY lull.

Over the course of the year the size of the new container ship order delivery book is so significant that the massive increase in capacity could easily put downward pressure on rates, particularly as networks adjust to the Red Sea disruptions.

The share of container capacity on order versus capacity on the water was 26% as of December, which will be good news for those manufacturers that want to ship cars in containers cost-effectively.

Last year, the global car carrier fleet totalled 760 ships, with 77 vessels on order and roughly 70 due for delivery in 2024.

In total Ro/Ro carriers have new-build vessels on order equal to about 30% of the present fleet, with vessel deliveries scheduled to begin mainly after 2024, but they’ll primarily offset retired tonnage rather than expand fleet capacity.

If you would like any further information or have any questions or concerns about your Automotive supply chain, your export logistics platform into The Middle East, Africa, Indian Sub and beyond or any of the content and developments outlined here, please EMAIL our Automotive team who are standing by to assist.

BIFA trophies

Freight industry award finalists

The British International Freight Association (BIFA) is the trade association for the freight, logistics and supply chain management sector. Their annual Freight Service Awards are the industry’s most contested and highly sought trade awards, because peer recognition is the ultimate accolade.

BIFA’s 35th and biggest Freight Service Awards – with over 500 attendees and a 30% increase in award entries – took place three weeks ago in the City of London, with Metro overcoming the increased competition, to be selected as finalists in the Sustainable Logistics and Specialist Services categories.

Grant Liddell, Metro’s Managing Director. “Our solutions, technology and customer focus are truly leading-edge and being selected as finalists in BIFA’s Freight Service awards yet again is recognition of that capability and is an independent endorsement of the value that we deliver consistently.”

Metro’s submission for the Sustainable Logistics Award described how a client’s commitment to create more sustainable supply chains was supported by three Metro initiatives, that focused on their critical air freight channel.

Over a two-year span Metro created:
1. A cloud-based tool to measure and monitor the CO2 emissions of every shipment
2. Became the first UK forwarder to invest in the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) programme
3. Participated in Sustainable Flight Challenges to generate CO2 savings exceeding 37%

The critical insights gained from the Sustainable Flight Challenges were invaluable in developing the operational templates that are now paving the way for a more sustainable air freight channel for the featured client.

Metro’s focus in the Specialist Services Award category was to highlight the value that we add, to enhance the freight element, and the difference that makes to our customers.

The Metro entry, chosen by the judges as a finalist, outlined how, at a time of limited transport capacity, a car manufacturing client’s finished vehicles were safely shipped to international markets, using a solution that reduced transit times, cut costs, lowered emissions and avoided disruption at destination.

By building connectivity between Metro’s supply chain management platform and the client’s ERP system, together with visibility of critical supply chain milestones, the client could grant their dealers direct access to Metro’s visibility tools, providing reassurance on vehicle orders in transit.

With Metro’s solutions the client could continue delivering customer orders in a challenging environment, with the solution running for over 12 months, to protect tens of millions in sales.

If you would like to learn more about the solutions highlighted here, please EMAIL Andrew Smith, Metro’s Chief Commercial Officer. 

steel in car manufacturing

Red Sea diversions disrupt China’s car supply chains

Carmakers had been struggling with a lack of car carrier RoRo capacity before the Houthi attacks began in the Red Sea and now with NYK and K Line suspending sailings via the Suez Canal nearly all big car car-carrier operators are diverting round the Cape of Good Hope, further reducing already squeezed capacity on the key trade route.

The boxlike RoRo car carriers ship thousands of vehicles and are vital in transporting cars between key Japan, China, South Korea and European markets, with long-distance ocean car shipments up 17% in 2023, largely because of big increases in exports from China and comes after large numbers of car carriers were scrapped during a market downturn in 2020. 

The extra 3,500 miles around the Cape means car makers will be able to transport fewer vehicles annually, as the global fleet’s effective capacity is cut and the 185 new vessels on order with shipyards this year are expected to increase fleet capacity by only 7%.

China may have overtaken Japan as the world’s largest auto exporter in 2023, with car exports jumping 62% to a record 3.83 million vehicles last year, but the shortage of seaborne capacity is putting the brakes on their ambitions in the UK and Europe.

With a few exceptions there is no immediate prospect that car carriers will return to their traditional Suez Canal route until they believe there’s a safe transit and with the current threat in Yemen, it is not felt that any military protection will be sufficient.

With about 25% of global, long-distance RoRo seaborne movements of cars typically moving through the Suez Canal, only container shipping is suffering bigger a upheaval as a result of the current problems in the Red Sea. 

However, the challenges for car-carrier operators are fundamentally different from those for container lines because there was a global excess of container ships before the latest crisis and container shipping lines have been able to reactivate idle ships to replace the capacity lost to longer journeys. 

While car companies have built up some extra inventory in key markets over the past year, they will run those stocks down as new vehicle deliveries from Asia are cut.

If you have questions or concerns about your automotive supply chain, trade with the Middle East, Africa, Indian Sub and beyond or any of the issues outlined here, please EMAIL our Automotive team who are standing by to assist.