Air freight markets have entered the new year on firmer footing than many expected, with volumes rebounding sharply through January as shippers accelerate movements ahead of earlier-than-usual Chinese New Year factory shutdowns.
While underlying demand remains uneven, front-loading has concentrated uplift into a narrower time window, particularly on East–West and transpacific trade lanes.
Global air cargo volumes increased by around 5% year on year in the second and third weeks of January, with chargeable weight recovering rapidly from the post-Christmas slowdown. Volumes remain approximately 10% below mid-December peak levels, but are now close to pre-holiday norms and materially stronger than the same period last year, helped by a softer start to 2025.
Asia–Europe demand has accelerated faster than Asia–North America, reflecting front-loaded demand across North and Southeast Asia. Volumes from Asia Pacific to Europe rose by close to 20% year on year in mid-January, with particularly strong growth from Southeast Asian origins alongside solid demand from China and Hong Kong.
The transpacific market is also improving, but with more uneven performance. Asia–US volumes were up by around 6% year on year, masking significant divergence beneath the headline number. Shipments from Southeast Asia to the US have continued to post double-digit growth, while volumes from China and Hong Kong remain below last year’s levels. This pattern reflects ongoing supply-chain diversification rather than a uniform demand recovery.
Front-loading adds to traditional peak
This year’s Chinese New Year dynamic differs markedly from historical norms. Rather than a late-January surge, earlier factory shutdowns have pulled production and uplift forward into the first half of the month. Manufacturing windows are tighter, shipping schedules more compressed and cargo flows more concentrated.
Unlike previous years, ocean freight’s pre-holiday volume spike has been somewhat muted, pushing a greater share of time-critical shipments into the air. Air volumes are firm, but not at the extreme peak levels seen in prior cycles.
Capacity behaviour is now the dominant market influence. Freighter operators have reinstated aircraft quickly following the year-end peak, with freighter capacity rising by more than 15% week on week in early January. Overall global air cargo capacity remains around 7% below mid-December highs, but has rebounded faster than demand in several markets.
This rapid capacity return prevented the sharp rate escalation typically associated with Chinese New Year. Average global air freight rates sitting roughly 10% below mid-December levels, but still slightly above the same period last year. On transpacific lanes, pricing to the US West Coast has largely stabilised, with East Coast rates modestly higher.
Concentrated production cycles, e-commerce demand and high-value cargo flows are sustaining baseline volumes. At the same time, uncertainty around ocean routing and the unlikely return of container services through the Red Sea in H1 continues to underpin air demand on selected lanes.
Securing space at the right time, and at the right cost, requires proactive planning and real-time market insight.
Metro works closely with shippers and carrier partners to manage uplift around peak periods, optimise routing and balance speed against cost as market conditions shift. Our teams monitor capacity, rates and network changes daily to help customers move time-critical cargo with confidence.
EMAIL Andrew Smith, Metro’s Managing Director, today to review your air freight strategy and ensure your supply chain stays resilient through the first half of 2026.
