Air freight peak season surge amid tightening capacity

As the air cargo market enters the final quarter of 2024, capacity is already under pressure, with spot rates from Asia climbing and setting the stage for a challenging few months.

In early September, global spot rates saw a significant rise, driven primarily by tightening capacity from key regions, with average spot rates from Asia-Pacific to Europe climbing week-on-week, and rates from Thailand to Europe increasing significantly, pushing prices to nearly double what they were the previous year.

On the transpacific front, rates from Asia to North America crept up gradually week-on-week, representing a 64% increase year-on-year. These sharp increases reflect the pressure that demand is placing on available space, particularly as eCommerce volumes continue to surge.

With capacity shortages expected to escalate, particularly for shipments from India and China to the US and Europe, the cost implications will be significant as demand outstrips supply, with surges in volumes already causing congestion at air hubs across Asia, including Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. This surge is affecting not only China but also other major production centres in Asia, with increasing reliance on charter services, which further exacerbates capacity issues.

Carriers are responding to these challenges by adding more connections to their networks, expanding winter schedules, introducing additional transpacific services and increasing flights to China and India.

Looking ahead, the air cargo market is expected to remain under strain into 2025. While spot rates are forecasted to continue rising into Q4, the market outlook remains unpredictable, with factors such as economic conditions and capacity constraints shaping how the peak season will unfold.

Despite the challenges, carriers remain cautiously optimistic and while they are working to expand capacity, the pressure on available space is likely to persist. Managing the balance between capacity and demand will be key to navigating the peak season ahead.

Our block space agreements (BSA) and capacity purchase agreements (CPA)  protect space and capacity on the busiest routes.

Regardless of your cargo type, size and requirements, we have extremely competitive rate and service combinations, to meet every deadline and budget.

EMAIL Elliot Carlile, Operations Director, for insights, prices and advice on our airfreight, charter and sea/air solutions.