Global financial events and Trump’s presidency: Implications for trade and logistics in 2025

As we step into 2025, the global financial and political landscape is undergoing significant transformations. Among the most notable developments is Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency, a shift that is likely to influence international trade and logistics. 

Closer to home, Q1 economic indicators in the UK also signal a complex year ahead, marked by both opportunities and challenges for businesses operating in the trade and logistics sectors.

Shifting economic landscape in the UK

Investor confidence in the UK is showing signs of improvement as the year begins, with several factors contributing to this optimistic outlook:
Economic growth: The UK economy is projected to grow by 1.5% in 2025, up from 0.9% in 2024. This improvement is driven by more expansionary fiscal policies and increased public spending, which are expected to provide momentum to key sectors.
Interest rate cuts: The Bank of England is anticipated to implement further rate reductions throughout 2025 and into 2026. Lower borrowing costs are already boosting confidence, particularly in the commercial property sector.

However, the private sector remains under pressure from elevated taxes, borrowing costs, and rising wage expenses, factors that may temper overall growth.

Trump’s presidency and its potential impact on trade

Donald Trump’s return to the presidency this month may see the introduction of new policies that could reshape international trade and logistics. His administration has signalled a focus on tariffs, energy production, and stricter border controls, all of which carry implications for global supply chains:
Tariffs and trade policies: Proposed tariffs on imports could increase costs for goods entering the U.S., affecting supply chains globally. Retaliatory measures from other countries may escalate into a trade war, disrupting established trade routes and adding volatility to logistics markets. Higher shipping costs and increased customs barriers would likely emerge as additional challenges for businesses.
Energy production: By prioritising domestic energy production, the U.S. aims to reduce reliance on foreign oil. While this policy may lower energy costs domestically and benefit logistics operations reliant on energy-intensive processes, it could also influence global oil prices, impacting trade dynamics for oil-exporting nations.

The performance of the U.S. dollar under these policies is also likely to affect global markets, with potential downward pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate impacting UK businesses reliant on international trade.

Navigating 2025’s complexities

The events shaping Q1 2025, both domestically and internationally, will have far-reaching consequences for the trade and logistics sectors. Businesses must remain agile and proactive to adapt to shifting market dynamics.

Metro’s award-winning services and unparalleled market expertise position us uniquely to help businesses navigate the complexities of 2025. Whether managing disruptions from new tariffs, adjusting supply chains in response to energy policy shifts, or adapting to UK economic changes, we provide the insights and solutions needed to succeed in a rapidly evolving landscape.

In the face of uncertainty, preparation and adaptability are key. With Metro as your partner, you can confidently tackle whatever challenges 2025 may bring.

EMAIL Managing Director, Andy Smith today to learn how we can safeguard your supply chain.