London Gateway

Ports invest for future

DP World has opened an 11.5 acre container park near Southampton, to increase storage capacity during the peak pre-Christmas season and work has begun on a fourth berth at London Gateway container port, to increase supply chain resilience and create more capacity for the world’s largest vessels.

The new park at Southampton will be able to hold additional empty containers and reduce stack sizes at the nearby container port, a critical factor in keeping supply chains moving at a time when dwell times at terminals across the UK have increased.

The new £3m empty park is part of DP World’s £40m investment this year at Britain’s second largest container terminal - designed to take it up to the next level as a smart logistics hub - which will provide 25% more storage capacity at Southampton and enable the port to maintain productivity and service levels for the vital next few months.

Southampton has already benefitted this year from the dredging and widening of berths to ensure continued accommodation of the world’s biggest ships and a £1.5m extension of a quay crane rail by 120 metres to ensure that the world’s biggest cranes can service the entire terminal and receive the largest container vessels that are operating today and in the foreseeable future.

In the first half of 2021, a record volume of cargo was handled at Southampton, with throughput of 995,000 TEU, while London Gateway saw record throughput of 888,000 TEU, a more than 23% increase on the previous best performance. Impressive although not without some pain during the process.

Southampton and London Gateway have both been awarded freeport status as part of Solent Freeport and Thames Freeport respectively.

The new London Gateway berth is part of a £300M investment by DP World, to support Thames Freeport and will raise capacity by a third. Completion of the new berth will coincide with the delivery of a new wave of 24,000 TEU vessels in 2023/2024, which will undoubtedly be operated between Asia and Europe. 

Along with the Port of Tilbury and Ford’s Dagenham plant, London Gateway will form part of Thames Freeport after being awarded ‘freeport’ status by the Government earlier this year, as a stimulus to both the local and national economy and global trade initiative.

With 40 commercial ports in the UK and hundreds across continental Europe to choose from, we select the optimum mix of cost and operationally effective port-pairs, to complete your transit in the shortest possible time.

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Air freight rates continue to rise as capacity falters

Frustrated shippers, trying to avoid further container shipping delays, by switching modes, has driven air freight and charter rates to climb by up to ten times in a single week.

Further imbalance between supply and demand is emerging, with the airlines conversion of passenger aircraft into temporary cargo planes failing to satisfy demand.

Many airlines are operating at their maximum capacity, which means that airports, and their cargo ground handling facilities, are heavily congested and global delays are inevitable, with significant disruption reported at Atlanta, Frankfurt and New York. Heathrow is also experieincing disruption as aircargo flows intensify during the final quarter.

Unprecedented demand for charter flights has been driven by massive increases in ocean freight rates on major trade-lanes, unreliable extended ocean freight transit times, delays and local driver shortages in Europe and the continued lack of passenger aircraft belly capacity due to travel restrictions globally, which is only beginning to open up as countries lift restrictions.

Charter prices have risen to record levels and as more aircraft are booked up, equipment is moving from increasingly large distances to service key routes from Asia, since there’s no ad-hoc scheduled capacity left in the market throughout October and into November.

We would expect to see further ‘preighter’ capacity added in the days and weeks ahead and express airlines are also adding freighter capacity to attempt to meet rising demand. With one expanding its services to Europe and North America in the run-up to Christmas, adding 62 flights a week and new services from Japan and Taiwan. However this is also now clashing with the re-introduction of scheduled passenger driven flights which is reducing the number of aircraft available for cargo only flights as the mainstream revenue opportunity returns to the airlines.

Intra-Asia integrator capacity has also been increased by replacing Boeing 757 narrow-body freighters with B767 wide-body freighters, doubling cargo capacity from/ to Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines.

Shanghai Pudong is operating relatively smoothly again after multiple Covid-linked disruptions and the local market has been quieter, due to Golden Week, although demand has picked up again after the holiday period as factories return and the Christmas period approaches.

Overall the market seems to be steady, with rates to certain destinations slightly higher, but with the peak season continuing, we expect this situation will degrade, as shippers in certain areas want to make sure they get their products in for the seasonal period and this is likely to push air freight rates up even further as a consequence of the supply/ demand dynamic.

We work closely with our global network to monitor market capacity and identify service opportunities that might benefit our customers, which means that despite the massive challenges, we continue to find solutions for time-sensitive shipments. 

Evaluating and blocking space on viable services early, is a critical factor in achieving deadlines based on customers’ requirements and expectations, including the constant recalibration of our hybrid sea/air platforms and hub services. 

Please call Elliot Carlie or Grant Liddell for further insights and advice.

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Contract negotiations signal carrier intent

Taking advantage of current market dynamics shipping lines are trying to move the biggest shippers - retailers and manufacturers - onto two-year terms for 2022, with some container carriers trying to negotiate even longer periods, of three or even four years.

Contract rate spreads from base ports in China and other parts of Asia are in the top two quartiles of the highest spot rate levels (which is extremely high for BCO’s) with rates for 20’ containers being quoted at much higher than 50% of the 40’ price, placing a penalty on the smaller containers.

While some carriers have walked away from their contracts, pushing importers to costly spot (FAK)  and premium rates, others are looking to shift some BCO customers and logistics providers onto long term contracts, but there are questions about what dynamics the lines are looking at. Because, even with rates at all-time highs, ships full and capacity reduced by congestion and a lack of equipment, the market’s peak may have been reached. 

Rates on a few trans-Pacific trades did soften as a result of China’s Golden Week holiday, but the market has picked up again very rapidly, because backlogs continue and demand for space is still strong as consumers continue to consume and low inventory levels need replenishment.

If the power-cut enforced closures of factories in parts of China continue, it may well allow Asian, US and European ports to catch up with the processing of containers through their terminals, which will assist with the mitigation of congestion and allow shipping schedule reliability to improve. However it may just suppress demand temporarily, if manufacturers’ backlog of orders simply pile up.

It is clear that the carriers expect continued pressure on lead times and costs through to the end of next year. At a time they are making record profits, they have also been ordering new vessels (equivalent to 5m teu of new capacity) with the first deliveries coming in 2023. And with 2023 not too far away, carriers may find themselves with more capacity than demand once again.

It may be that some lines, particularly those with long-term exposures to very high charter rates, have been looking to lock-in contracts at long-term rates that will allow them to meet those obligations.

The current logjams and challenges within global supply chains will be worked through as demand settles to more realistic levels and with an order-book that now stands at around 20% of the fleet, it is very likely that some sort of discounting may begin in the market, before those vessels are delivered.

It should be noted that the majority of this new capacity will be provided by ships carrying more than 20,000 TEU and this could simply reignite much of the current global port disruption, because many ports do not have the infrastructure with cranes, equipment or capability to handle Ultra Large Container Ships (ULCS), which can be 61 metres wide, 400 metres in length and require 17 metres depth clearance.

Carriers that have secured capacity at very high rates with long contracts beyond the 2023 period, when much of the order book will be delivered, may be desperate for market share, but with the three alliances functioning so well, don’t expect it to be any of the big lines.

The leading shipping lines got through the tricky second and third quarters of 2020 much better than they had expected through cutting capacity, so even though their share prices fell the lines were in good shape financially.

Carriers have been forced to become very effective at managing their capacity and they will evolve into the post-pandemic era in a much stronger position, so while some may falter, the majority – certainly the larger lines – will maintain healthy returns.

Global supply chains are likely to be under intense and sustained pressure for some time yet, and we will continue to share with you the most important developments so that you are informed and prepared to make critical decisions ahead of potential issues. 

We negotiate rate and volume agreements with carriers across all three alliances, which means we have the freedom to react to market conditions and changes. 

Please contact Elliot Carlile or Grant Liddell to discuss your supply chain expectations and deadlines to ensure your business is ‘future proofed’ for the rest of 2021 and 2022.

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Air freight welcomes return of passenger flights

Passenger aircraft pre-Covid supplied at least 50% of all global airfreight capacity in the ‘belly-hold” space under the passenger deck and the return of air travel will ease congestion and rate pressure on the time-sensitive mode.

Passenger airlines will begin to convert and reduce the number of aircraft operated in ‘preighter’ configurations this autumn, as more of their fleets return to flying scheduled passenger services, particularly on European and transatlantic routes.

United Airlines deployed half of their wide-body fleet – every passenger airplane the size of a B767 and bigger and representing well over 200 aircraft – to fly cargo-only missions during the pandemic, but when the US reopens its borders for travel in November, the airline is planning to only have four to five of its largest planes flying cargo-only missions, because the others will be deployed on passenger routes again. 

From early-November, the transatlantic air transport market is set to be completely open again, with the US accepting vaccinated travellers from Europe. Right now, these schedules are significantly less compared to pre-Covid levels and we see that shortfall in belly-hold space reflected in the elevated rates, as flights operated are reliant on cargo income only to make them economically viable.

With BA only restoring around 80% of trans-Atlantic capacity, the key question is what is going to happen when it gets back to 100% and how long that might take. It’s possible that the speed of recovery and the available aircraft may be distorted, because a lot of carriers, that would normally be flying in Asia, may try to enter the transatlantic, and other re-emerging travel markets, as they are able to focus back on their main revenue stream.

Despite Singapore allowing quarantine-free travel from the UK, Asia remains a challenge, because passenger flights cannot fly there as pandemic-related restrictions remain in place, throughout much of the region.

It is worth highlighting that despite the presence of numerous ‘preighters’ and dedicated freighters there are not simply enough of them to fill the hole left by the missing belly-hold capacity from the passenger airlines flying into Asia, from Europe and the US.

Another significant issue is reducing the number of air cargo charter flights carriers can operate, due to Covid-related restrictions placed on pilots and aircrew.

When pilots return to some Asian countries, they are subject to a (Covid-19) quarantine period of up to 21 days, which effectively means that a crew will only be able to fly one trip per month.

As long as that is the case – and unfortunately we don’t see any real change in the situation in the foreseeable future – rate levels will stay more or less where they are now.

As the air cargo market enters the Q4 peak season there will be many shippers desperate for capacity, no matter what price is offered, because it will be extremely hard to come by in the short-term.

Metro will continue to ensure that we advise the current week's situation in regard to air freight and critical time movements. We will always present all solutions covering every option that will ensure that deadlines are met and ideally exceeded.

Please contact Elliot Carlile for immediate review and advice on what we can do for you during the final quarter of 2021 – and beyond.