Crew

COVID disruptions continue to impact global supply chains

The delta variant has broken through virus defences across the Indian Subcontinent and the whole of Asia and reached nearly half of Chinas 32 provinces in just two weeks, threatening more supply chain disruption.

Developments are raising the threat of delays at ports and airports as authorities screen crews of incoming vessels and aircraft, with factory production potentially halted, or at least stymied, if widespread lockdowns are imposed. 

The situation is unfurling at a daily rate of knots…….

The strict lockdown in Bangladesh was lifted yesterday in a government announcement and factories can return to full operation, though we do not anticipate any significant improvement in ocean freight performance yet. Rates continue to increase, due to huge demand for containers and restrictions at Chittagong Port as a consequence of recent action.

Airport operations have resumed, though the market is relatively soft due to factory productivity being reduced and there are very few unloading bays for screening shipments, as construction continues inside the cargo village.

Cambodia, Myanmar, Indonesia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka continue to be affected by the spread of the delta variant and supply chain disruption, with many factories being forced to temporarily shutting production in the regions to stem the spread of the virus.

Port and airport facilities are still operating and there are no significant delays beyond those already being experienced, presently, although this is being monitored.

As we reported a fortnight ago, the lockdown in South Vietnam has many ships lying at anchor, which has now created a reported 100,000 TEU backlog at Ho Chi Minh City’s Cat Lai Port.

According to Saigon Newport (SNP), yard density at Cat Lai is currently around 85%, after it experienced a “rapid surge in the volume of over-dwelled import containers” - because many factories had closed or reduced production to 50%-70% during the lockdown - which had negatively impacted vessel handling.

Some factories are expected to reopen next week, but a resurgence in demand, caused by delayed production, may mean that empty container availability could worsen as manufacturing starts up and global demand continues to increase in the final half of the year.

The industry expectation is anticipating severe equipment shortages in the southern provinces of Vietnam for at least a few weeks, while equipment supply in the north is also extremely tight.

With congestion already increasing in Shanghai, following Typhoon In-fa, the world’s largest port, Ningbo, is now turning ships away, after a Meidong Container Terminal worker tested positive for COVID on Tuesday.

Operations were suspended yesterday following the 34-year-old worker testing positive, with the port authority initially claiming that its operating system was down before the Ningbo Municipal Health Commission confirmed an infected worker was part of the workforce at Meidong terminal.

Large vessel numbers are already backing up outside Ningbo-Zhoushanas. This map by maritime consultancy eeSea shows the huge volume of container ships at anchor waiting for berth space. This is not good news for the logistics sector and could potentially spread to other gateways if similar outbreaks occur in China further hampering the already disrupted supply chains.

Courtesy of eeSea

Ningbo-Zhoushan handled 1.17bn tons in 2020 making it the largest port in the world, with annual box throughput of 30million TEU. To put it into perspective.

When a COVID-19 outbreak was detected at Yantian Port in late May, operational capacity at the key southern port was cut by 70% for most of June.

Since last July COVID infections have been confirmed in roughly half of China’s provinces, sparking mass testing operations and localised lockdowns.

Newly reported cases have forced the country to re-introduce restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, with ports now requiring a nucleic acid test (NAT) for all crew, with vessels forced to remain at anchor until negative results are confirmed.

Many ports in the country are also requiring vessels to quarantine for 14 to 28 days if they previously berthed in India or performed a crew change within 14 days of arriving in China.

For urgent and must have shipments from Asia, we have access to freighter capacity from our Sea/Air hub in Singapore and can move consignments of up to 200cbm per flight to Europe.

Our commercial and operations teams work closely with our partners across Asia, monitoring air and sea freight operations and the port congestion that continues to impact most regions.

Please do continue to send us your forecast data and order information, at the earliest opportunity, so that we can manage cargo bookings and transit deadlines, to meet your expectations.

If you have any questions, concerns, or would like any further information regarding any of the issues raised here, please dont hesitate to contact Elliot Carlile or Grant Liddell.

Suez convoy

Carriers inject capacity, but rates stay high

Container carriers are injecting additional capacity into the critical Asia-North Europe trade as they prepare for a strong and prolonged peak season and elevated rates.

With the massive consumer and inventory demand continuing, carriers are transferring capacity from other trades and deploying additional vessels, which will increase market volume by 15.1% over the next 12 weeks, compared to the third quarter in pre-pandemic 2019. 

Driven by financial return and redeployment of the restricted supply of vessels, this continues to have a ‘knock on’ effect on other trade lanes, changing the dynamics inadvertently in markets that may not appear to be under ‘pressure’.

The capacity growth rate far exceeds historical trends, and although volume data on the trade lane lags by almost two months, the injection of additional vessels is a clear indication that carriers are preparing for an increase in import volumes to consumer markets and an increase in export demand in manufacturing regions amounting to the same result – demand exceeding supply = increased shipping costs.

Over the course of the last year, the share of the global container shipping fleet deployed in Asia to Europe and Asia to North America trades has increased from 34.6% to 41.4%. The fleet capacity percentage on all East-West mainline trade routes, which includes the Transatlantic on top of the two Asia trades, has risen from 38.5% in July 2020 to 45.9% in July 2021.

The Far East to Europe trade remains the biggest in terms of fleet deployment, with 21.5% of the global fleet (5.25 Million TEU), which represents a capacity increase of 19.7% compared to July 2020.

The main reason why carriers have shifted a larger proportion of their fleets to the East-West trades is of course the high revenue that can be earned there, with massive spot rates and the premiums that some shippers are willing to pay to secure a booking guarantee.

We are expecting the third quarter to be very strong and are already experiencing high numbers of booking requests, but carrier capacity will depend on operational constraints, which we detail rigorously in these bulletins.

Rising volumes will further challenge container ports that have been struggling with months of strong demand, disrupted services and the lowest ever carrier schedule reliability.

Asia-North Europe schedule reliability (vessel arriving within one day of the published arrival) for April, was just 24.4%, down from 72% in April 2020, with 461 vessels arriving more than seven days late from January through May.

In practice vessels on every significant trade are not calling at any North European terminal during agreed and reserved operation windows, which means terminal operations are running on a first-come, first-served basis.

Increasingly ‘industry experts’ (trade press, commentators and consultancies) are suggesting that widespread issues like port congestion and the lack of shipping containers should soon fade as the initial rebound from the pandemic passes.

Likewise, recent months have seen inventory replenishment and safety stock building, to protect against future supply chain disruptions and once sufficient stocks are built, the imbalance of demand and supply should also pass.

We would all welcome such an outcome, at the earliest opportunity, as the current situation traps us in a high rate and limited capacity environment. With demand outstripping available capacity, rates will continue to track steeply upwards.

Time will tell………..

We negotiate rate and volume agreements with carriers across all three alliances, which means we can react quickly to market changes and offer shippers alternative services, in line with their deadlines

Consider your requirements now for 2022 and beyond – many carriers are looking at longer validity periods for contracts exceeding 12 months and up to 3 years. Planning is essential to ensure that your logistics strategy is complete and predictable for the future. We can assist.

Our fixed validity contracts provide supply chain security and peace of mind, but with space and equipment in such short supply, we recommend a minimum of four weeks visibility and booking window, to secure space on the vessel and get the right equipment positioned.

We provide regular news, market intelligence announcements and updates on the developing ocean and air freight market situation, together with insights on alternative modes and the options available for critical cargo, with deadlines under threat.

Please contact Elliot Carlile or Grant Liddell to discuss your options in achieving your supply chain expectations and deadlines to ensure your business is ‘future proofed’ and all stakeholders within your organisation participate in the logistics cost strategy as an essential element to ensure successful growth throughout the 2020’s.

businessman stressed

Shippers go out of business as ocean surcharges continue to mount

Container shipping lines are becoming ever more inventive with the names they apply to the surcharges they keep adding to already over-loaded FAK rates.

The latest example is Hapag-Lloyd’s ‘value-added surcharge’ of $5,000 per 40ft, from China to the US and Canada.

The carrier told customers the new surcharge was due to “extraordinary demand from China and the resulting operational challenges along the transport chain”.

Hapag-Lloyd said the surcharge would be implemented from the 15th August and would “replace other ad-hoc surcharges like the SGF” (shipment guarantee fee), which is $1,000 per 40ft.

Some carriers, including Zim, Cosco and ONE, are already charging Asia to US west coast shippers in excess of $7,000 per 40ft for so-called ‘value-added’ products, on top of their FAK rates. Zim is also implementing a $5,000 per 40ft congestion surcharge from the 6th August for shipments to the US west coast ports of Los Angeles and Tacoma.

Last week’s Baltic Index for Asia to the US west coast actually fell by 8%, but in many cases shippers are paying at least double the Baltic Index quoted figure to secure shipment, despite having signed MQC [minimum quantity commitment] contracts with shipping lines.

For Asia to North Europe, the Baltic Index reading rose 7% this week, while the 30% spike in rates from Europe to the east coast of South America this week is likely to be a result of capacity being diverted to the ex-Asia lanes.

There is growing anecdotal evidence that carriers across a number of tradelanes are ignoring contracts and forcing shippers to accept sky-high FAK rates and hefty surcharges and there is growing concern that businesses will be unable to absorb or pass on to their customers these massive freight cost increases.

Increasingly it is reported in the national press, shippers such as Taylor Group, a heavy equipment manufacturer, are getting the ear of US politicians, and legislators don’t like what they hear.

“This situation is causing inflation to run rampant throughout the supply chain. So far, we have kept our production lines running but are facing 30% to 75% price increases from our vendors and transportation companies,” William Taylor, CEO of Taylor Group, told the Senate Commerce Committee this month.

The Biden administration is wading into ocean regulatory waters via an executive order, upping pressure on maritime regulators to crack down on illegal behaviour and work more closely with the Department of Justice (DOJ).

And for the first time in more than 20 years, Congress is on track to rewrite the shipping law that gives the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) its direction, powers, and purview.

The escalation of federal and Congressional attention on container shipping speaks to how supply chain disruptions have moved out of the world of logistics managers and onto the front pages of general news.

Metro negotiate rate and volume agreements with a wide range of carriers across all three alliances, which means we can react quickly to market changes and offer shippers alternative services, in line with their deadlines.

Our fixed validity contracts provide supply chain security and peace of mind, but with space and equipment in such short supply, we recommend a minimum of four weeks visibility and booking window, to secure space on the vessel and get the right equipment positioned.

Colombo

Westbound sea freight market update

Demand for imports from Asia and the Indian subcontinent (ISC) continues to outstrip shipping line capacity, in a sign that with inventories low, second-half volumes are unlikely to let up, keeping pressure on a global supply chain infrastructure that is already buckling.

The UK’s primary container ports will be expecting a spike in imports from China, as the backlog of cargo that had built up in Yantian during the COVID-19 outbreak in May and June arrives, to add to traditional peak season volume that runs from August to October. This is also being experienced throughout Europe, The Americas and most major trading regions and is not unique to our little island – which is where the problem lies as global logistics is now an inter-related network which has ripples everywhere regardless of the source of the ‘problem’.

Peak season demand is further complicated, by massive backlogs of unshipped containers in China and the ISC, with Yantian arguably experiencing the worst backlog, though vessels are also backed up in Shanghai and Ningbo. It would seem the ‘worlds factory’ has broken its despatch bays.

An estimated 14,000 TEU of export containers are stuck at the main Bangladeshi port of Chittagong, owing to the capacity crunch involving feeder vessels and congestion feeding back from global ports, with some containers waiting to ship for up to 30 days.

Equipment shortages, congestion and berthing delays in Chittagong, have forced some carriers to halt or slow bookings from Bangladesh and rates are likely to be impacted by the instability in ports globally.

Lines have not stopped taking bookings from Chittagong, but there is caution, in the absence of confirmation of space allocation on mother vessels at transhipment ports.

All the major shipping lines have very limited space from Indian ports, with waiting period to secure bookings increasing drastically over the past few weeks and contractual bookings not being honoured.

The lines quite simply don’t have the space to meet all their bookings and are either not quoting, are trying to sell space for a premium, or have kept higher rates on selected routes to discourage new bookings.

CMA-CGM has announced the blanking of their Europe Pakistan India Consortium, EPIC and EPIC2, sailings from Western India for week 29, and weeks 28 and 29 respectively.

We have worked closely with strategic partner shipping lines for decades and despite our good working relationships and the lines best efforts to support us, we still have to accept some cargo being rolled, and have no choice but to accept blanked sailings, though our commercial team typically find space for rolled, or blanked containers, on the next available vessel.

In a worrying move for the three shipping alliances last week, the Biden administration called for the Federal Maritime Commission to crack down on excessive detention and demurrage charges. The President’s order characterised the ocean freight industry as a highly concentrated, foreign-owned, anticompetitive sector which can disadvantage American exporters and importers. 

It is expected this move will be replicated in other countries, as the repercussions of high freight and logistics costs escalate inflation, which now looks unavoidable, filtering into the cost of raw materials, consumer products and throughout the supply chain.

The White House order comes against a backdrop of skyrocketing freight rates, but the World Shipping Council, which represents the carriers, refuted the concept that the rate spike is connected to concentrated market share, noting that all available vessel capacity is deployed, ports are saturated with cargo and importers struggling to turn around containers.

It pointed to recent developments that indicate the functioning of a competitive ocean freight market, like new entrants, new services and massive vessel orders to increase supply.

Last week, the European Commission confirmed that it is "closely monitoring" the shipping industry and is looking into "any scope for intervention that can facilitate return to normal operations.”

Metro negotiate rate and volume agreements with a wide range of carriers across all three alliances, which means we can react quickly to market changes and offer shippers alternative services, in line with their deadlines.

Our fixed validity contracts provide supply chain security and peace of mind, but with space and equipment in such short supply, we recommend a minimum of four weeks visibility and booking window, to secure space on the vessel and get the right equipment positioned.