Strong US import demand, reduced vessel capacity and tighter Panama Canal restrictions are keeping transpacific shipping under pressure, with East Coast services facing particular constraints as September approaches.
The transpacific market remains significantly firmer than Asia–Europe, despite signs that the recent rise in spot rates may be levelling off.
After several weeks of increases, Shanghai–New York spot rates slipped 2% in the latest Drewry World Container Index, while Shanghai–Los Angeles remained flat. Freightos recorded a different picture, with East Coast rates rising 3% and West Coast rates 1%.
The differing indices underline the uncertainty surrounding the market rather than signalling a clear reversal. Rates remain substantially above levels seen three months ago, supported by resilient demand, constrained capacity and growing operational pressure around the Panama Canal.
Peak season demand remains resilient
An unusually early transpacific peak began in late May as US importers accelerated shipments from Asia, initially in response to tariff uncertainty and subsequently supported by continued demand.
China–US volumes fell 12% in the first quarter before surging 22% in Q2, with much of that rebound concentrated in April and May. US import forecasts suggest volumes could remain relatively firm through September before easing in October.
Capacity has tightened at the same time. August capacity fell 9% month on month on Asia–US East Coast services, while carriers have continued using blank sailings to manage supply.
Congestion at Asian ports following successive typhoons has added further pressure, disrupting schedules and reducing the effective capacity available to shippers.
Panama compounds the East Coast squeeze
The Panama Canal is emerging as another important factor for Asia–US trade.
From early September, lower permitted draughts and fewer daily transits are expected to restrict the amount of cargo vessels can carry through the canal. Analysis of July movements suggests around 45% of Neopanamax transits could be affected by the new draught limits, representing approximately 55% of nominal container capacity using the larger locks.
Initially, this may mean vessels carrying less cargo rather than carriers withdrawing ships. However, fewer daily transit slots could increase queues and delays while reducing the effective capacity available to East Coast services.
If restrictions become more severe, carriers could divert some Asia–US East Coast services around the Cape of Good Hope. That would add approximately 30% to transit times and tie up vessels for longer, tightening capacity elsewhere in the network.
West Coast gateways could gain cargo
Panama restrictions may also change how importers route US-bound cargo.
Some Asia-origin shipments normally moving through the canal to East Coast gateways could switch to Los Angeles, Long Beach and other West Coast ports, followed by rail or intermodal transport inland.
US intermodal volumes are already increasing as shippers respond to tight truckload capacity and higher road freight costs. Domestic container volumes grew 7.4% year on year during the first half, while international container volumes returned to growth in July.
Rail networks currently appear to have capacity to absorb additional traffic, although localised pressure is emerging at some ports and railheads. A sustained transfer of transpacific cargo towards the West Coast could increase pressure on terminal appointments, chassis availability and inland connections during September.
Elevated conditions may persist into September
The immediate outlook remains finely balanced.
Strong transpacific demand contrasts sharply with Asia–Europe, where rates have declined for seven consecutive weeks. On the Pacific, however, capacity management, Asian port congestion and Panama restrictions provide continuing support for the market.
The latest pause in rate growth may therefore prove temporary rather than marking the end of peak-season pressure.
For shippers, the more important issue is increasingly where usable capacity will be available. East Coast constraints could favour West Coast routings, but shifting cargo west creates different inland transport requirements and potential congestion risks.
Early booking, additional lead time and the ability to switch gateways, routings and inland modes will be increasingly important as these pressures develop.
NOTICE: Transatlantic carriers push for September rate increases
Carriers are seeking to strengthen westbound transatlantic rates in September, despite softer demand between Europe and North America.
North Europe–US volumes fell 2.6% year on year in July, following a 5.5% decline in June, while Mediterranean–US volumes dropped 1.9%. In response, carriers reduced Europe–North America capacity by almost 9% during August, with a further 9% reduction expected on North Europe services in September.
Several carriers have now introduced peak-season surcharges and general rate increases, alongside higher European inland fuel and intermodal charges. With demand providing limited support, their success will depend on capacity discipline and shipper acceptance.
Metro connects an extensive Asian network with established operations across the United States, giving shippers access to alternative gateways, routings and inland solutions as capacity shifts.
By considering ocean, port and inland costs together, we can identify the route that protects your supply chain and total landed cost and move with the market when conditions change.
EMAIL Andrew Smith, Metro’s Managing Director.
