Ocean freight markets are entering a more complex phase, as carriers respond to sustained pressure from fuel markets and network disruption, with pricing increasingly driven by cost recovery rather than volume growth.
Across April, carriers have implemented a series of general rate increases (GRIs), emergency fuel surcharges and peak season surcharges on East-West routes and particularly on US-bound trades. The result has been a sharp uplift in spot rates on key corridors, with transpacific pricing rising by between 7% and 24% in recent weeks, depending on coast and routing.
These increases have been driven less by base rate movement and more by the rapid introduction of fuel surcharges. In many cases, all-in pricing has risen by around 10–15% week-on-week, reflecting the direct pass-through of higher bunker costs rather than a tightening of underlying demand.
On the transatlantic, the shift has been more pronounced. With the World Container Index (WCI) Rotterdam-New York leg jumping 25% week on week, driven by a combination of reduced capacity and carrier pricing discipline. Available capacity on this trade has fallen by around 13% month-on-month, tightening supply and accelerating rate increases.
Further upward pressure is expected in the near term, with additional surcharge adjustments and peak season pricing already announced for May.
Fuel disruption and network constraints drive divergence across trades
Reduced refinery output and constraints on key energy routes have pushed bunker prices sharply higher, increasing operating costs across global shipping networks.
Fuel availability has also tightened in key bunkering hubs, particularly in Asia, making it more difficult to secure contracted volumes and introducing further uncertainty into voyage planning. As fuel is one of the largest cost components in container shipping, these pressures are being reflected quickly in carrier pricing strategies.
Although some stability has returned around the Strait of Hormuz, operators remain cautious, with reluctance to fully reinstate services through high-risk areas. This is extending voyage times, increasing fuel consumption and reducing overall network efficiency.
Beyond fuel, operational disruption is also affecting port performance. Across Northern Europe, yard density has exceeded 75% at key gateways, with vessel waiting times averaging more than two days in some locations. These delays are the result of earlier weather-related disruption, but their impact is compounding existing network inefficiencies.
Schedule reliability remains a critical challenge, with global reliability dropping over 3% in March to 59.0%. While performance into Northern Europe has improved from earlier lows, it continues to hover only slightly above recent averages, with consistency still lacking.
This is limiting the effectiveness of any short-term capacity adjustments and contributing to ongoing uncertainty for cargo planning.
Capacity shifts create an uneven global market
While pricing is rising on some trades, the global picture remains uneven. Capacity into Europe has remained relatively stable, with minimal blank sailings and continued vessel deployment.
At the same time, capacity elsewhere is being actively repositioned. The Asia–Mediterranean trade has seen a significant increase in deployed capacity, rising by around 25% month-on-month as carriers reroute cargo previously moving through the Gulf. This shift is enabling continuity of flow but also creating new pressure points across
Mediterranean ports, which may face congestion if volumes continue to build.
The result is a fragmented market, where pricing and performance vary sharply by corridor. US-bound trades are experiencing strong upward pressure, driven by cost recovery and tighter capacity.
Even if geopolitical conditions stabilise in the short-term, the structural impacts of recent disruption will take time to unwind. Fuel supply chains remain tight, network efficiency has been reduced, and port performance continues to lag.
Metro works closely with customers to overcome changing conditions, providing market insight, routing flexibility and cost control across ocean freight.
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