A year without reset: why 2025 changed how shippers plan for 2026

If 2025 was expected to mark a return to supply-chain stability, it never materialised. Instead, shippers faced a year defined by overlapping pressures — congestion, trade policy uncertainty, labour disruption, capacity volatility and regulatory change — with little opportunity for recovery between events.

The result was not a single crisis, but a new operating reality in which disruption became constant rather than cyclical.

Congestion set the tone early. Chinese New Year volumes collided with tariff-driven front-loading, overwhelming ports that had little slack to begin with. In Europe, delays never fully cleared, as labour shortages and industrial action turned episodic congestion into a persistent feature of the network.

At the same time, capacity proved increasingly conditional. Despite growing overcapacity in ocean shipping, blank sailings and service adjustments were used to defend rates, leaving shippers navigating unreliable schedules and fluctuating lead times. Space existed, but not always when or where it was needed.

Trade policy uncertainty further distorted behaviour. Tariff threats reshaped shipping patterns well before any rules changed, forcing importers and exporters to plan around political timelines rather than regulatory certainty. Incremental near-shoring and supplier diversification continued, improving resilience but adding complexity and creating uneven outcomes across trade lanes.

Routing assumptions also weakened. Ongoing uncertainty around Suez transits illustrated how quickly default routings may change and how sudden shifts risk overwhelming already-congested ports.

One of the most disruptive developments came in air freight, as the US scrapped de minimis exemptions. Compliance crackdowns exposed widespread documentation failures, triggering operational and financial shocks. By late summer, European businesses were openly calling for similar action, with the EU and UK subsequently moving toward ending de minimis regimes.

Technology offered both relief and risk. AI planning tools and automation moved into live operations, improving forecasting and warehouse efficiency, but adoption was uneven. At the same time, growing digital connectivity increased cyber exposure, with system failures increasingly capable of stopping cargo as effectively as physical disruption.

As 2025 closes, few of these pressures show signs of easing. For shippers heading into 2026, the lesson is clear: success will depend less on predicting the next disruption and more on designing supply chains that can operate reliably in imperfect conditions.

What we have highlighted above is not a list of isolated incidents, but the issues that, together, defined how supply chains actually worked in 2025 and why many of them will shape planning decisions well into 2026.

1. Congestion became the backdrop, not the exception
Chinese New Year pressure never fully unwound in 2025. European ports in particular struggled to regain fluidity, as labour shortages, strikes and infrastructure limits turned multi-day dwell times into a permanent planning assumption for shippers.

2. Capacity existed — but only on carriers’ terms
Despite growing overcapacity, space proved conditional. Blank sailings and service changes were used to defend rates, leaving shippers less concerned about finding capacity than trusting it would actually move.

3. Trade policy uncertainty distorted flows before rules changed
Tariff threats, especially from the US, reshaped behaviour well ahead of implementation. Cargo was pulled forward and inventory decisions aligned to political calendars rather than operational need, making policy risk an everyday planning factor.

4. Supply chains rebalanced incrementally — and unevenly
Diversification and near-shoring continued, but through small, cumulative shifts rather than dramatic moves. Resilience improved, but network complexity increased, producing uneven outcomes across trade lanes.

5. Routing assumptions weakened
Uncertainty around Suez transits showed how quickly “default” routings can change. Sudden shifts in vessel deployment risked pushing congestion from one pressure point to another, forcing shippers to review routing far more frequently.

6. Labour disruption proved structural
Strikes and workforce shortages across ports and inland hubs reduced recovery capacity throughout the year. Even when demand softened, networks struggled to catch up, confirming labour as a long-term constraint.

7. Overcapacity failed to bring stability
A surplus of vessels did not translate into reliable service or predictable pricing. Instead, defensive capacity management reinforced volatility, leaving markets looking loose until they suddenly tightened.

8. De minimis collapsed — with immediate air freight impact
The US decision to scrap low-value exemptions triggered widespread disruption, as compliance crackdowns exposed documentation failures and non-compliant parcel flows. By late summer, European pressure mounted to follow suit, with the EU and UK moving toward ending de minimis.

9. AI entered operations, but unevenly
AI planning, automation and visibility tools moved into live environments, improving forecasting and warehouse performance. However, uneven adoption widened the gap between digitally mature supply chains and those stuck in pilot mode.

10. Cyber risk became a supply-chain issue
As networks became more connected and AI-enabled, cyber threats shifted from IT to operations. Vulnerabilities in platforms, data sharing and third-party access increasingly had the power to stop cargo as effectively as physical disruption.

Taken together, the experience of 2025 leaves shippers entering 2026 with little expectation of a return to stability. The focus is shifting away from pure cost optimisation toward execution, resilience, compliance and control. Designing supply chains that can function reliably in imperfect conditions rather than waiting for disruption to pass.

Metro will continue to support shippers in 2026, helping them to plan and protect them in an increasingly complex supply-chain environment. Supporting congestion and routing risk management, air and ocean capacity planning, compliance readiness and end-to-end visibility.

If you’re reviewing your 2026 supply-chain strategy, the Metro team can help you stress-test your network and build resilience where it matters most.

EMAIL Metro’s managing director, Andrew Smith to discuss your 2026 planning priorities.