For decades, global shipping followed a familiar rhythm. Demand built steadily through the summer, peaked during August and September, then eased once Christmas cargo had left Asia.
That pattern has changed in recent years, with the main shipping peak arriving much earlier and demand and freight rates reaching their highest levels during June and July.
While spot rates have begun to soften, that does not signal a return to normal market conditions. Instead, it marks the beginning of a different phase in an increasingly extended peak season.
Rather than one concentrated surge, many shippers should now expect two distinct periods of heightened demand each year.
The early peak has become the new normal
The early arrival of peak season is no longer an isolated event. Each of the past three years has followed a remarkably similar pattern, despite being driven by very different events. The Red Sea crisis accelerated shipments in 2024, changes to US trade policy reshaped buying patterns in 2025, and this year's combination of Middle East disruption, higher bunker surcharges and longer transit times again encouraged businesses to bring forward shipments.
Different events have produced the same outcome: companies are shipping earlier to protect inventory, reduce risk and avoid escalating costs.
As a result, what was once considered an exceptional response is becoming normal supply chain behaviour.
Why another peak is expected
Although freight rates have eased since July, few expect demand to fall sharply during the remainder of the year.
Instead, the earlier summer peak has created a higher baseline from which a second increase in demand is likely during the fourth quarter.
This secondary peak is expected to develop around two familiar milestones.
The first is Golden Week in China during early October, when factory closures encourage exporters to accelerate shipments before production pauses. The second is the build-up to Chinese New Year, when manufacturers again rush to complete export orders before extended holiday shutdowns.
Rather than replacing the traditional peak season, the early summer surge has effectively stretched it across a much longer period.
Longer transit times continue to reshape planning
The continued diversion of vessels around the Cape of Good Hope remains one of the biggest influences on global shipping.
Avoiding the Red Sea typically adds between 10 and 14 days to Asia-Europe transit times, reducing the effective capacity of the global container fleet and making supply chains significantly longer than they were only a few years ago.
Businesses have adapted by ordering earlier, holding inventory for longer and allowing greater contingency within their supply chains.
These behaviours, first adopted during the pandemic, have become embedded in day-to-day logistics planning.
Capacity remains finely balanced
Although additional vessel deliveries continue to increase global fleet capacity, carriers remain disciplined in managing supply.
Blank sailings, selective capacity reductions and deployment changes continue to prevent significant overcapacity on many trade lanes.
As a result, freight rates are expected to soften gradually rather than collapse, with localised volatility continuing as carriers respond to changes in demand.
Other risks remain on the horizon
The outlook for the remainder of the year also depends on factors beyond normal seasonal demand.
Typhoon activity across Asia continues to disrupt port operations during the summer months, while the potential return of El Niño raises fresh concerns over water levels and transit restrictions at the Panama Canal.
Should Panama face significant restrictions while Red Sea routings remain uncertain, carriers serving the US East Coast could face further pressure on capacity and transit times.
Planning for a longer peak season
The traditional view of peak season as a short period of intense activity no longer reflects today's market.
Instead, businesses should prepare for a longer planning cycle with multiple demand surges, extended transit times and continued operational uncertainty.
That means reviewing inventory earlier, securing transport capacity well in advance and building flexibility into routing and distribution strategies rather than relying on historical shipping calendars.
Peak season has changed and supply chain planning needs to change with it. Metro works with customers to forecast demand, secure capacity and build more resilient transport strategies, helping businesses stay ahead of disruption while protecting service levels, inventory availability and cost control.
EMAIL Andrew Smith, Metro’s managing director, to review your Q3/4 planning
