Sea freight heads into 2026 on a knife edge

Container spot rates are edging higher on the main deep-sea trades as carriers push through GRIs and FAK hikes into December. With blank sailings, worsening weather disruption and the risk of renewed port congestion, the run-up to Chinese New Year 2026 could be particularly challenging.

On Asia–Europe, recent carrier-driven price increases have pushed spot rates back onto an upward trajectory, with mid-single to low-double digit percentage gains week on week on Shanghai–North Europe and Shanghai–Med lanes.

Far East–North Europe currently shows both demand and supply strength: carriers are adding capacity and still managing to lift rates. On the Mediterranean, rate growth has been even stronger, but largely because carriers are deliberately cutting capacity on this leg.

Across the Pacific, a fresh round of GRIs from 1 December has nudged spot rates up again on Shanghai–Los Angeles and Shanghai–New York. However, with overall capacity still plentiful and some services under-utilised, sentiment suggests these higher levels may be difficult to sustain through January without further tactical capacity reductions.

Blank sailings, weather disruption and port congestion

Blank sailings are once again a primary tool for managing the imbalance between supply and demand. Over the five weeks from early December to mid-January, carriers have already announced cancellations on roughly 9% of scheduled global deep-sea departures, concentrated on:

• Transpacific eastbound (50% of blanks)
• Transatlantic westbound (28%)
• Asia–Europe/Mediterranean (22%)

December alone is set to see dozens of cancellations, effectively tightening capacity month on month even before we feel the full effect of the CNY rush. Early January schedules already show further blanks, pointing to a choppy start to 2026.

At the same time, severe storms across Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia have slowed terminal operations and delayed vessels, with ports such as Colombo particularly affected before conditions began to stabilise. These regional disruptions are feeding into missed berthing windows, bunching and knock-on schedule disruption on the main east–west loops.

Asia–Europe demand has grown by an estimated 10–14% this year, a level of expansion on the westbound trade not seen since before the global financial crisis. That growth, combined with alliance reshuffles and weather-related delays, is stretching terminal and hinterland operations across key European gateways, with little idle capacity to cope with surges.

How CNY 2026 will hit European supply chains

Chinese New Year 2026 will tighten Asia–Europe capacity, push up freight rates and extend lead times for European importers from early January through at least mid-March. The typical pattern is already emerging:

• Late January–early February: factories begin to slow production 2–3 weeks before the holiday; bookings are brought forward, sailings fill early and some cargo is rolled.
• Mid-February–early March: factories and some logistics operations close or run at reduced capacity for 2–4 weeks; post-holiday backlogs build; carriers implement blank sailings to match lower export volumes.
• Mid-March onwards: gradual normalisation, with residual delays and congestion as ports and hinterlands clear accumulated cargo.

For European shippers, this means a 6–8 week window of potential disruption, with the risk of inventory gaps around key seasonal peaks such as Valentine’s Day, Easter and spring collections.

Planning priorities for December and January

Against this backdrop of higher but fragile spot rates, tactical blank sailings and an extended pre-CNY peak, we recommend:

• Pulling orders forward where possible to ship in December/early January rather than relying on late-January liftings.
• Securing space early, particularly on high-risk corridors and for time-sensitive SKUs.
• Building targeted safety stocks in European DCs to cover a 4–6 week disruption window.
• Co-ordinating closely with us on sailing schedules, blanking plans and any additional surcharges that may apply around the CNY period.

The next eight to ten weeks will set the tone for the rest of 2026. Those who plan now for an extended CNY disruption window will be far better placed to protect service levels and cost.

Metro’s sea freight team is already modelling Dec/Jan blank sailings, CNY rush patterns and potential Suez routing changes so we can secure space, optimise routings and build contingency plans around your specific flows.

By sharing your forecasts and critical SKUs early, we can ring-fence capacity, minimise disruption and shield you as far as possible from threatened GRIs and last-minute surcharges.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, today to arrange a strategic review of your ex-Asia shipping patterns and lock in the resilience you need for CNY 2026 and beyond.