Air freight situation and outlook for 2025

Global air freight market continues to experience robust growth, driven by eCommerce and the peak season, but faces capacity constraints due to reduced belly cargo capacity and a limited supply of wide-body freighters, particularly on key trade routes.

Demand rose 10% year on year in November, marking the 13th consecutive month of double-digit growth. However, capacity has only increased by 2%, pushing the cargo load factor to its highest level in over 30 months at 63%, with average spot rates 22% up year-on-year.

Regional performance
Europe: Transatlantic rates have risen due to capacity cuts in freighter and belly cargo availability, coinciding with the winter season. European imports from the Middle East remain strong, driven by sea-air volumes and Red Sea disruptions.

Asia: Air freight demand is set for double-digit growth in key lanes, particularly between North Asia and Europe, despite elevated rates and tight capacity. The anticipated cargo rush to avoid new US tariffs has not yet materialised, but demand remains buoyant.

Americas: The US is grappling with capacity challenges stemming from South America congestion and redirected EU-to-AML routes. Port strikes in Canada have slightly increased air freight demand, adding further pressure to regional supply chains.

Outlook for 2025
Global air cargo volumes are projected to rise by 5.8% year on year in 2025, reaching 72.5 million tonnes. This growth will be supported by booming eCommerce originating in Asia, although any changes by the U.S. to the current ‘de minimis’ thresholds, could have a profound impact.

Geopolitical uncertainty will continue to play a significant role in shaping air freight dynamics. The Red Sea crisis is expected to persist, influencing routing decisions and costs. Potential tariff changes in the United States could impact trade volumes, though benefits from deregulation under a business-friendly administration may offset some of the negative effects.

Rates and capacity
Air freight rates are likely to remain elevated if demand continues to outpace capacity. Airlines are responding with rate increases and expanding dedicated services to key regions. For example, Air China has announced rate adjustments, reflecting confidence in the strength of the market.

Global available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs) are expected to grow gradually, though at a decelerating rate. Capacity expansion remains constrained by limited availability of freighters and reduced belly cargo options on key routes.

The air freight market is poised for continued growth in 2025, bolstered by strong demand from eCommerce and evolving trade dynamics, while challenges such as capacity constraints and geopolitical uncertainties remain.

For urgent and sensitive shipments, Metro offers tailored airfreight, charter, and sea/air solutions. With block space agreements (BSA) and capacity purchase agreements (CPA), we guarantee space and competitive rates on the busiest routes.

Our Birmingham International Hub and partnerships with regional airports provide significant time and cost benefits, while our global network ensures agility in a dynamic market.

Whatever your cargo size, type, or deadline, we deliver the best rate and service combinations to meet your needs.

EMAIL Elliot Carlile, Operations Director, for insights and pricing today.