Air freight volumes rebound and rates adjust post-peak

Average east-west spot freight rates strengthened into December as peak-season demand lifted pricing, and while they eased back over the year-end, early January data shows a sharp rebound in demand.

Outbound air freight rates from Asia rose firmly into December, reflecting year-end demand and sustained e-commerce flows. Month on month, pricing on Asia–US lanes increased by nearly 7%, while Asia–Europe rates rose by close to 9%, marking the strongest monthly averages of the year on both corridors.

Despite this seasonal lift, rates closed the year marginally below December 2024 levels, highlighting that the 2025 peak was solid but less aggressive than the year before.

Asia–Europe pricing has proved more resilient over the year than Asia–US, supported by e-commerce flows increasingly oriented towards European consumers rather than the US market.

January volumes surge as markets reopen

Following the normal year-end slowdown, global air cargo volumes rebounded strongly in the first full week of January. Worldwide tonnages rose by more than 25% week on week, reversing the sharp declines seen in the final weeks of December. Compared with the same period last year, chargeable weight ran around 5% higher, indicating a stronger underlying start to 2026.

This rebound was broad-based across all major origin regions except Africa. Asia Pacific remained the largest contributor in absolute terms, continuing a trend seen throughout 2025.

Capacity began to recover as freighter operators reinstated services scaled back after the peak. Freighter capacity rose by over 15% week on week in early January, although overall global capacity still remained around 7% below mid-December levels.

Even with supply returning fast, average rates remain slightly ahead of the same point last year, reinforcing that the market reset reflects seasonality rather than a structural downturn.

Asia outbound lanes lead volume growth

Year-on-year volume growth in early January was led by Asia Pacific origins, up around 8%, in line with the full-year growth rate recorded in 2025.

On Asia–US routes, volumes increased by around 10% year on year, driven mainly by Southeast Asia, while flows from China and Hong Kong remained broadly flat. This points to a more diversified Asia export base rather than a single-country surge.

Asia–Europe volumes grew even faster, up around 15% year on year, supported by stronger flows from China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Thailand, underlining Europe’s growing role as a destination market for Asian exports.

Beyond Asia, traffic from the Middle East and South Asia showed some of the strongest growth rates entering 2026, with double-digit year-on-year increases on both Europe- and US-bound lanes.

Securing lift and service predictability is about smart, proactive planning. Metro’s air freight team closely monitors capacity, fine-tunes routings and works with trusted carrier partners to keep cargo moving reliably and on time.

Metro’s digital platform adds confidence through live flight telemetry, delivering:
– Real-time aircraft position and route mapping
– Accurate departure and arrival confirmation
– Time-stamped milestones, updated as events unfold

This visibility means our customers can plan with certainty, optimise inventory and protect service levels—even as market conditions change.

EMAIL Andrew Smith, Managing Director, to explore smarter, faster and more resilient air freight solutions powered by live data and long-standing carrier relationships.